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This study identified the employment and earnings trajectories of welfare recipients over six years for a sample of 14,150 women who entered the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program (TANF) in Wisconsin in its first year. Wisconsin longitudinal administrative data were used to examine differential patterns of mid-term (three years) and long-term (six years) employment and earnings success. We developed a conceptual approach to categorizing participants' employment and earnings trajectory groups. Results indicate substantial diversity in employment and earnings patterns. Some women have consistently positive outcomes, others show steady improvements over time, and others have inconsistent patterns that end strong. We found that 46% of the sample fit into one of three successful employment trajectories, and 22% fit into one of three successful earnings trajectories. Results also reveal that many women who were successful in the mid-term were not able to sustain their progress. For example, only 56% of those who were earning successes in the mid-term were still successful in the long-term. Finally, logistic regression models were used to compare the factors associated with mid-term and long-term success and with employment success and earnings success. Implications of findings are discussed.

Under Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, families are subject to greater work requirements, and the severity of sanction for noncompliance has increased. Using Wisconsin longitudinal administrative data, the authors performed event history analysis to examine the dynamic patterns of sanctioning and the patterns of benefits following a sanction. They found that very high rates of sanctioning (especially partial sanctions) and multiple sanctions were fairly common but sanction spells were quite short. The most common transition from a sanction was back to full benefit receipt. The authors also examined the factors associated with being sanctioned and the severity of sanctions by comparing a traditional model with an event history model. They found that it is important to estimate a model that takes into account the period of risk. Results confirm that those who may be least able to succeed in the labor market are most likely to be sanctioned.

Welfare programs changed dramatically in 1996. Caseloads dropped by more than 9 million recipients over an eight-year period, and millions entered the labor market in the wake of these changes. Since the start of the "welfare revolution," research has emerged to document the new ways former welfare recipients are using federal entitlement programs as they navigate and negotiate the "post-AFDC" era. In this article, the authors examine patterns of participation in TANF, the Food Stamp program, and Medicaid in Wisconsin. Very distinct patterns of participation emerged among the three programs: a single short period of receipt was common for TANF cycling was typical for food stamps, and a long spell was the standard for Medicaid. The authors also explored multiple program participation over a three-year period. Analysis revealed interactions and transitions not normally considered in this line of research. One key finding was the high number of transitions on and off benefits during these three years when the three programs were considered simultaneously. Policy implications are discussed.

This study identified the employment and earnings trajectories of welfare recipients over six years for a sample of 14,150 women who entered the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program (TANF) in Wisconsin in its first year. Wisconsin longitudinal administrative data were used to examine differential patterns of mid-term (three years) and long-term (six years) employment and earnings success. We developed a conceptual approach to categorizing participants' employment and earnings trajectory groups. Results indicate substantial diversity in employment and earnings patterns. Some women have consistently positive outcomes, others show steady improvements over time, and others have inconsistent patterns that end strong. We found that 46% of the sample fit into one of three successful employment trajectories, and 22% fit into one of three successful earnings trajectories. Results also reveal that many women who were successful in the mid-term were not able to sustain their progress. For example, only 56% of those who were earning successes in the mid-term were still successful in the long-term. Finally, logistic regression models were used to compare the factors associated with mid-term and long-term success and with employment success and earnings success. Implications of findings are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]