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We want to do three things in this paper: (1) to propose a more general probability model than the one considered by Toby or Davies for dealing with the number of buses a student would see, on the average, going in the wrong direction; (2) to show that, with this general model, one would not see more wrong-direction buses, or the same number of wrong-direction buses, as suggested by Toby and Davies, but fewer wrong-direction buses; (8) to question the advisability of using a student's experiences with wrong-direction buses as the way to shake his faith in the validity of personal experience. As Davies has said, clarification is especially necessary now that Toby's paper has appeared in books of readings designed for the course in introductory sociology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article describes a process for determining migration probability. A stochastic process may be defined as a process which develops over time and where events at time 2 are not independent of events at time 1. This lack of independence may be viewed in probabilistic terms. Since the application of stochastic probability processes to problems of predicting individual behavior requires data obtained from case studies where each individual can be classified with respect to a given set of categories at successive points in time, the projected analysis required a set of individual longitudinal migration histories. Consequences of the basic mechanism of the model utilized in the paper are also detailed.