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This paper describes Immanuel Kant’s transcendental deductions from 1781 to 1790. The deduction is a central element of Kant’s critical project. However, a comparison of the seven deductions performed over the last decade of his work shows Kant rethought, sometimes radically, the method of deduction. The paper argues that Kant did not have a single model of deduction, rather he had an approach which he adapted to meet the requirements of his theoretical, practical and aesthetic philosophy. The paper sets out in clear steps what Kant tried to do with each deduction, thus providing the opportunity to identify what was common across the deductions as well as changes that reflected Kant’s continuous rethinking of them.

Italian abstract: Per la pubblicazione 2020-21,04 abbiamo dato uno sguardo alla evoluzione legislativa nell'ambito delle condizioni per l'ammissione di valori mobiliari alla quotazione ufficiale di una borsa valori a partire dal 1979; abbiamo considerato le modifiche apportate nell'ordinamento giuridico italiano introdotte con il decreto stabilita del 2014 con riferimento al voto maggiorato e voto plurimo, modifiche che apportano cambiamenti alle disposizioni in merito all'obbligo di pubblicazione di una offerta pubblica di acquisto OPA, includendo nel limite oltre la detenzione di una partecipazione superiore al 30% anche la disponibilita di un diritto di voto superiore al 30% a seguito di acquisti. Abbiamo effettuato uno studio sulla quotazione ufficiale in borsa regolamentato dalla direttiva 2001/34/CE dando uno sguardo ai cambiamenti legislativi dal 1979 a livello comunitario e che hanno portato alla stessa direttiva; ulteriori studi hanno avuto interesse per il prospetto pubblico con riferimento ai requisiti relativi alla redazione, all'approvazione e alla diffusione. Nell'ultimo paragrafo abbiamo dato uno sguardo al regolamento (UE) 909/2014 (CSDR) relativo ai depositari centrali che migliora il regolamento titoli operato dai CSD, considerata la rilevanza sistemica che assumono in tale ruolo per il funzionamento dei mercati mobiliari. La commissione ha emanato disposizioni volte ad aumentare i requisiti prudenziali sanciti dal regolamento CRD IV che disciplina l'accesso all'attivita degl'enti creditizi, sia per i depositari che per gli stessi enti creditizi quando erogano i servizi accessori bancari definiti dal regolamento CSDR per un sistema di regolamento titoli, inoltre ha sancito il divieto di erogare altri servizi bancari dalla stessa entita giuridica per ridurre l'esposizione al rischio di fallimento considerata l'applicazione della responsabilita limitata per le societa di capitali e considerato l'articolo 44 paragrafo 1 comma 1 lettera b ed f che il relativo comma 3 della direttiva BRRD (2014/59/UE). In appendice ci siamo interessati alle integrazioni effettuate dalla Commissione europea al regolamento sugli abusi di mercato, il regolamento (UE) 596/2014, con riferimento alle disposizioni previste dall'articolo 16 in merito all'armonizzazione di un modello unico per la segnalazione di operazioni ed informazioni ritenute sospette (STOR). English abstract: For the publication 2020-21.04 we looked at the legislative evolution in the context of the conditions for the admission of securities to the official listing of a stock exchange starting from 1979; we have considered the changes introduced in the Italian legal system introduced with the stability decree of 2014 with reference to the increased vote and multiple vote, that make changes to the provisions regarding the obligation to publish a takeover bid, including in the limit beyond the holding of a stake of more than 30% also the availability of a voting right of more than 30% following purchases. We carried out a study on the official listing on the stock exchange regulated by Directive 2001/34/EC, taking a look at the legislative changes since 1979 at the EU level and which led to the same directive; further studies were of interest to the public prospectus with reference to the requirements relating to the preparation, approval and dissemination. In the last paragraph we took a look at the regulation (EU) 909/2014 (CSDR) concerning central depositories that improves the securities settlment operated by CSDs, considering the systemic importance they assume in this role for the functioning of the securities markets. The commission has issued provisions aimed at increasing the prudential requirements established by the CRD IV regulation which regulates access to credit institutions, both for depositaries and for the same credit institutions when they provide the accessory banking services defined by the CSDR regulation for a securities settlement system has also sanctioned the prohibition of providing other banking services by the same legal entity to reduce exposure to the risk of bankruptcy, considering the application of limited liability for corporations and the article 44 paragraph 1 subparagraph 1 letter b and f that the relative subparagraph 3, of the BRRD directive (2014/59/EU). In the appendix we are interested in the additions made by the European Commission to the market abuse regulation, regulation (EU) 596/2014, with reference to the provisions of article 16 concerning the harmonization of a single model for reporting transactions and information deemed suspicious (STOR).

In this paper we review existing modelling approaches for analysing claims experience in the presence of reporting delays, reviewing the formulation of mortality incidence models such as GLMs. We then show how these approaches have traditionally been adjusted for late reporting of claims using either the IBNR approach or the more recent EBNER approach. We then go on to introduce a new model formulation that combines a model for late reported claims with a model for mortality incidence into a single model formulation. We then illustrate the use and performance of the traditional and the combined model formulations on data from a multinational reinsurer. We show how GLMs, lasso regression, gradient boosted trees and deep learning can be applied to the new formulation to produce results of superior accuracy compared to the traditional approaches.

After a brief review of the economic literature, the paper offers a comparative analysis of the main features of capital income taxation in Italy, the EU and the US. The paper also analyses the recent evolution of capital taxation and portfolio allocation in Italy. The findings point to high heterogeneity in the choice of the type of tax system, taxation level and forms of preferential taxation, suggesting no convergence towards a single model of taxation among countries. However, a common feature of most systems is that capital income is taxed more lightly than labour income. The heterogeneity in the tax treatment of households’ savings is likely to persist in the future; recent developments at international level concerning the transparency of taxation are expected to increase governments’ degrees of freedom in choosing their preferred tax system. Empirical evidence for Italy suggests that the tax burden on financial assets has increased in recent years but the evolution of financial assets over time is not particularly sensitive to tax changes.

This paper investigates the time‐varying volatility patterns of some major commodities as well as the potential factors that drive their long‐term volatility component. For this purpose, we make use of a recently proposed generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity–mixed data sampling approach, which typically allows us to examine the role of economic and financial variables of different frequencies. Using commodity futures for Crude Oil (WTI and Brent), Gold, Silver and Platinum, as well as a commodity index, our results show the necessity for disentangling the short‐term and long‐term components in modeling and forecasting commodity volatility. They also indicate that the long‐term volatility of most commodity futures is significantly driven by the level of global real economic activity as well as changes in consumer sentiment, industrial production, and economic policy uncertainty. However, the forecasting results are not alike across commodity futures as no single model fits all commodities.

This paper reviews the key models used to forecast and evaluate sustainable withdrawal rates from pension portfolios and enumerates their key risks so that financial advisors are better able to judge model limitations and thus the risks associated with the recommendations they are making. We focus on the model risk in isolation to determine the single model class or group of models best suited to retirement income planning from the wider set of candidates. We also look at the implementation issues surrounding these choices. We conclude by discussing the industry and policy making implications with reference to the UK.

The hominin cranial capacity data was reanalyzed using simulations, which emulated the variability in the estimation of cranial capacity of hominin skulls. First, the data was analyzed using k-means clustering to establish the presence of two groups in the data. Then, these datasets were used to estimate the confidence limits for the parameter estimates of Henneberg’s double exponential model. Through these parameter estimates and their confidence limits it could be seen that two models for two time spans identified by cluster analysis were better than a single model for the full span of time. From an analytical perspective, there are indications for a structural change in cranial capacity growth, which is expressed as a rapid increase after a slow growth period. This structural change scenario does not support the rejection of the concept of punctuated equilibrium on the basis of a gradual change.

An important question for central banks is how they should report the uncertainty of their forecasts. This paper discusses a way in which a central bank could report the uncertainty of its forecasts in a world in which it used a single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its policies. Suggestions are then made as to what might be feasible for a central bank to report given that it is unlikely to be willing to commit to a single model. A particular model is used as an illustration.

In January 2012 the Fed began reporting ranges of its economic forecasts. The ranges, however, measure differences of opinion, not variances of economic forecasts. This paper discusses what the Fed could report in a world in which it used a single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its policies. Suggestions are then made as to what might be feasible for the Fed to report given that it is unlikely to be willing to commit to a single model.

Bancassurance has grown to currently become a completely consolidated insurance distribution channel in the global market, even though it shows unequal levels of development depending on the social and economic characteristics of the different countries. Several factors have contributed to give this phenomenon a particularly important role in Spain, which has led to the specific incorporation of this channel in the Insurance and Reinsurance Distribution Act. However, the provisions laid down in the law have proven to be inadequate to cover such a complex phenomenon as bancassurance, with many varied manifestations that are not always in line with the single model provided by the Spanish law. After studying the historical causes of the Spanish development and the existing legislation, I will show the most controversial aspects of the Act 26/2006, and those that do not reflect the current situation of the market. The analysis is complemented by an examination of the treatment given to this distribution channel by the German legal system.

Scholars have long recognized two classes of special interest group (SIG) expenditures: inside lobbying, which is intended to influence the content of a bill; and outside lobbying, which is intended to influence the likelihood a bill is enacted into law. This paper juxtaposes both lobbying activities within a single model. Policy choices are a function of the decision-maker's assessment of SIGs' willingness to engage in outside lobbying. Importantly, inside lobbying expenditures do not always reflect SIGs' outside lobbying capacities and therefore cannot adequately measure SIG influence. Empirical studies which exclusively consider inside lobbying expenditures -- as nearly all existing tests do -- are likely to underestimate both the extent and strength of SIG influence. The small impact of inside lobbying expenditures often documented in the empirical literature is thus not inconsistent with the widely held belief that SIGs bias the political process in their favor.

Several recent papers present models to explain the probability and timing of seasoned equity offerings. Using a unique database of Australian new economy companies, we find no single model is adequate. The variables that are important in determining the probability of an SEO provide only limited support for explanations based on signalling models, market feedback and near-term liquidity needs. Similarly, the duration between an IPO and the first SEO is not explained by signalling or by near-term liquidity needs, and is only partially explained by market feedback.

Most pre-crisis explanations of the various corporate governance systems have considered the separation between ownership and control to be an advantage of the Anglo-American economies. They have also attributed the failure of other countries to achieve these efficient arrangements to their different legal and/or electoral systems. In this paper we compare this view with the co-evolution approach based on the hypothesis that politics and corporate governance influence each other, generating complex interactions of financial and labour market institutions. Countries cluster along different complementary politics-business interaction paths and there is no reason to expect, or to device policies for, their convergence to a single model of corporate governance. We argue that this hypothesis provides a more convincing explanation of the past histories of major capitalist economies and can suggest some useful possible scenarios of their future institutional development. Bayesian model comparison suggests that the co-evolution approach turns out at least as influential as the competing theories in explaining shareholder and worker protection determination.

We examine how liquidity and asset prices are affected by the following market imperfections: asymmetric information, participation costs, transaction costs, leverage constraints, non-competitive behavior and search. Our model has three periods: agents are identical in the first, become heterogeneous and trade in the second, and consume asset payoffs in the third. We examine how imperfections in the second period affect different measures of illiquidity, as well as asset prices in the first period. Besides nesting multiple imperfections in a single model, we derive new results on the effects of each imperfection. Our results imply, in particular, that imperfections do not always raise expected returns, and can influence common measures of illiquidity in opposite directions.

Several recent papers present models to explain the relation between initial public offerings and subsequent seasoned equity offerings. Using a unique database of Australian new economy companies in an out-of-sample test of these theories, we find no single model is adequate. The variables that are important in determining the probability of an SEO provide only limited support for explanations based on signalling models, market feedback and nearterm liquidity needs. Similarly, the duration between an IPO and the first SEO is not explained by signalling or by near-term liquidity needs, and is only partially explained by market feedback.

Exchange-rate movement is regularly monitored by central banks for macroeconomic-analysis and market-surveillance purposes. Notwithstanding the pioneering study of Meese and Rogoff (1983), which shows the superiority of the random-walk model in out-of-sample exchange-rate forecast, there is some evidence that exchange-rate movement may be predictable at longer time horizons. This study compares the forecast performance of the Purchasing Power Parity model, Uncovered Interest Rate Parity model, Sticky Price Monetary model, the model based on the Bayesian Model Averaging technique, and a combined forecast of all the above models with benchmarks given by the random-walk model and the historical average return. Empirical results suggest that the combined forecast outperforms the benchmarks and generally yields better results than relying on a single model.

Modeling credit default swap (CDS) spreads usually requires more than calibrating a single model. Focusing on the structural model category, CreditGrades as in Finger (2002) and the Das and Sundaram (2000) trinomial tree model are two promising model candidates. Using a broad sample of 54 individual CDSs from the DJ CDX.NA.IG universe during May 14th, 2004 to July 7th, 2006, we find that the trinomial model steadily outperforms the CreditGrades benchmark. However, both models' out-of-sample performance can be relatively poor, with a mean correlation in spread changes below 50% and vast cross-sectional differences in model performance. Interestingly, company specific variables hardly explain these differences. Applying the models to companies with above average R-squared in the spirit of Roll (1988) remarkably improves the results. We conclude that above average correlation with a CDS market proxy indicates above average structural model performance.

Pro-Poor Growth (PPG) is the vision of combining high growth rates with poverty reduction. Due to the myriad of possible determinants of growth and poverty a unique theoretical model for guiding empirical work on PPG is absent, though. Bayesian Model Averaging is a statistically robust framework for this purpose. It addresses the existent parameter and model uncertainty by not choosing a single model but averaging over all possible ones. Using data for the 61 Vietnamese provinces we are able to ascertain a prioritization of all used determinants of poverty, growth and of PPG of our large set of explanatory variables.

Many believe and argue that fiscal, or budgetary, transparency has large, positive effects on fiscal performance. However, the evidence linking transparency and fiscal policy outcomes is less compelling. To analyze the effects of fiscal transparency on public debt accumulation, we present a career-concerns model with political parties. This allows us to integrate as implications of a single model three hitherto-separate results in the literature on deficit and debt accumulation: that transparency decreases debt accumulation (at least by reducing an electoral cycle in deficits), that right-wing governments (at least for strategic reasons) tend to have higher deficits than left-wing governments, and that increasing political polarization increases debt accumulation. To test the predictions of the model, we construct a replicable index of fiscal transparency on 19-country OECD data. Simultaneous estimates of debt and transparency strongly confirm that a higher degree of fiscal transparency is associated with lower public debt and deficits, independent of controls for explanatory variables from other approaches.

We investigate the issue of model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions using Bayesian model averaging (BMA). We find that the posterior probability is distributed among many models, suggesting the superiority of BMA over any single model. Out-of-sample predictive results support that claim. In contrast with Levine and Renelt (1992), our results broadly support the more “optimistic” conclusion of Sala-i-Martin (1997b), namely, that some variables are important regressors for explaining cross-country growth patterns. However, the variables we identify as most useful for growth regression differ substantially from Sala-i-Martin’s results.