1. Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations
- Author
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Julian di Giovanni, Andrei A. Levchenko, Isabelle Mejean, Mundell, Melissa, Idex Paris-Saclay - - IPS2011 - ANR-11-IDEX-0003 - IDEX - VALID, Centres d'excellences - Réguler l'économie au service de la société - - ECODEC2011 - ANR-11-LABX-0047 - LABX - VALID, and Equipements d'excellence - Développement et construction d'un Centre d'Accès Sécurisé Distant aux données confidentielles (CASD) pour la recherche française en sciences sociales et en économie. - - CASD2010 - ANR-10-EQPX-0017 - EQPX - VALID
- Subjects
Micro level ,shock transmission ,International trade ,Monetary economics ,granularity ,aggregate fluctuations ,Business cycle ,Economics ,Macro level ,ddc:330 ,Macro ,[SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance ,Granularity ,E32 ,Stylized fact ,L14 ,Shock transmission ,F15 ,international trade ,Baseline model ,Input linkages ,Aggregate fluctuations ,input linkages ,F44 ,F23 ,F62 - Abstract
This paper uses a data set covering the universe of French firm-level sales, imports, and exports over the period 1993-2007 and a quantitative multi-country model to study the international transmission of business cycle shocks at both the micro and the macro levels. The largest firms are both important enough to generate aggregate fluctuations (Gabaix 2011), and most likely to be internationally connected. This implies that foreign shocks are transmitted to the domestic economy primarily through the largest firms. We first document a novel stylized fact: larger French firms are significantly more sensitive to foreign GDP growth. We then implement a quantitative framework calibrated to the full extent of observed heterogeneity in firm size, exporting, and importing. We simulate the propagation of foreign shocks to the French economy and report one micro and one macro finding. At the micro level, heterogeneity across firms predominates: 40-85 percent of the impact of foreign fluctuations on French GDP is accounted for by the 'foreign granular residual'-the term capturing the fact that larger firms are more affected by the foreign shocks. At the macro level, firm heterogeneity dampens the impact of foreign shocks, with the GDP responses 10-20 percent larger in a representative firm model compared to the baseline model.
- Published
- 2020
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