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Background and Purpose— Few recent studies have investigated the rates and predictors of early and late stroke recurrence using prospective population–based methodology. We investigated recurrent stroke at 2 years in the North Dublin Population Stroke Study (NDPSS). Methods— Patients were ascertained from December 2005 to 2006 from overlapping community and hospital sources using hot and cold pursuit. Stroke recurrence, survival, and functional outcome were ascertained at 72 hours, 7 days, 28 days, 90 days, 1 year, and 2 years. Results— Of 567 patients, cumulative 2-year stroke recurrence rate was 10.8% and case fatality was 38.6%. Recurrence subtype was associated with initial stroke subtype ( P P =0.005) and prior stroke (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.92; P =0.01) were independent predictors of 2-year recurrence in 28-day survivors. Conclusions— Despite rigorous ascertainment, recurrent stroke rates were lower in current study than in earlier studies. Our data suggest that large sample sizes may be needed for future secondary prevention trials in patients treated with modern preventive medications.

Background: In suspected TIA, DWI hyperintensity confirms the diagnosis of brain ischemia and identifies those with 3-fold risk of early recurrent stroke. However, immediate MRI is expensive and may not be available in many healthcare settings. A simple validated blood test to objectively support the diagnosis of cerebral ischaemia after transient symptoms might have utility in clinical practice. We hypothesised that blood markers of inflammation may be associated with abnormal DWI following TIA. Methods: BIO-TIA was a multi-centre prospective study of consecutive patients with clinically-defined TIA, confirmed by a stroke physician. Phlebotomy and stroke protocol MRI were performed within 72 hours of symptoms. Patients with malignancy, active infection, trauma, surgery, definite transient non-ischaemic symptoms or recurrent stroke before phlebotomy/MRI were excluded. Plasma high-sensitivity CRP and interleukin-6 (IL-6) were measured by mass spectrometry. Results: In 201 included patients, mean age was 68 years (59% male). Carotid stenosis was present in 26.4% and atrial fibrillation in 29.1%. Mean ABCD2 score was 4.2 (SD 1.3). Acute DWI hyperintensity was observed in 37.8% (76/201). Median hsCRP was 1.78mg/L in DWI-negative, compared with 3.01mg/L in DWI-positive TIA (p=0.04). Median IL-6 was 3.76pg/ml (DWI-negative) versus 4.91pg/ml (DWI-positive) (p=0.04). When the highest quartiles of CRP and IL-6 distributions were compared with quartiles 1-3, the prevalence of DWI hyperintensity was 61.5% (Q4) versus 32.9% (Q1-3) for CRP (p=0.001), and 56.4% (Q4) versus 34.9% [Q1-3) for IL-6 (p=0.02). Thresholds of 4.78mg/L for CRP or 6.21pg/ml for IL-6 had at least 80% specificity for identification of abnormal DWI signal. IL-6 was associated with CRP (rho 0.58), age (rho 0.36), and ABCD2 score (rho 0.18) and carotid stenosis (p≤0.01 for all), but not statin use. Conclusion: Our preliminary findings require validation, but suggest that inexpensive, rapidly-measured blood markers are associated with acute DWI hyperintensity after TIA. If validated, blood markers may have utility to support the diagnosis of cerebral ischemia or select patients for early MRI.