1. A novel discriminant formula for the prompt diagnosis of strangulated bowel obstruction
- Author
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Yusuke Suwa, Jun Watanabe, Itaru Endo, Atsushi Ishibe, Kazuya Nakagawa, Masashi Momiyama, Kazumi Kubota, Shigeru Yamagishi, and Mayumi Ozawa
- Subjects
Male ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Time Factors ,030230 surgery ,Sensitivity and Specificity ,Diagnostic aid ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Risk Factors ,Ascites ,medicine ,Humans ,In patient ,Lactic Acid ,Aged ,Retrospective Studies ,business.industry ,Retrospective cohort study ,General Medicine ,medicine.disease ,Linear discriminant analysis ,Predictive value ,Bowel obstruction ,Diagnostic Techniques, Digestive System ,Early Diagnosis ,Logistic Models ,Discriminant ,030220 oncology & carcinogenesis ,Female ,Surgery ,Radiology ,medicine.symptom ,Tomography, X-Ray Computed ,business ,Intestinal Obstruction - Abstract
The diagnosis of strangulated bowel obstruction (SBO) is sometimes difficult. We attempted to create and verify a discriminant formula for use as a diagnostic aid for the early diagnosis of SBO. This retrospective study included 97 patients who underwent an operation for SBO from January 2007 to September 2018. First, a discriminant analysis was performed for 73 patients who underwent an operation from January 2007 to December 2015 in order to obtain a formula. Next, we analyzed 34 patients who underwent an operation from January 2016 to September 2018 to verify the formula. The risk factors for SBO included ascites, signs of preperitoneal irritation, and lactate > 1.16 mmol/L. The discriminant formula is as follows: 1.954 × collection of ascites (1 or 0) + 1.239 × peritoneal irritation sign (1 or 0) + 0.378 × lactate − 2.331 (1: positive, 0: negative). The predictive value was as follows: sensitivity, 87.5%; specificity, 64.7%; and predictive accuracy, 73.5%. In patients who presented within 24 h of the onset, the sensitivity was 92.3%, the specificity was 75.0%, and the predictive accuracy was 85.7%. Our discriminant formula seems useful for the rapid diagnosis of SBO.
- Published
- 2021
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