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Quantitative and qualitative knowledge about the potential impacts of climate change on extreme hydrological events is crucial for water resource management and extreme risk management under climate change. This has theoretical and realistic implications to study and couple the climate system with hydrologic processes, to understand the system and solve related problems in water resources and extreme hydrology, such as decision making, plan management, environmental protection, and ecological balance. This paper reviews recent studies investigating climate change impact on hydrological extremes using a perspective of the integrated modeling framework comprising climate change scenarios, climate models, bias correction methods, hydrological modeling (model structure and parameterization), and reducible uncertainty arising from these sources characterized by a paucity of knowledge. The available research outcomes show the extreme high flows are likely to increase under climate change in the most parts of Europe, Asia, and the USA, but greatly vary and decrease in Africa and Latin America, which is highly variable and uncertain in space and time. Each component in integrated modeling has an important role in shifting and producing uncertainty in projected extreme flow. Among them, the climate model's discrepancy and hydrological models' structure are the more dominant source of uncertainty in projection of extreme high and low (or mean) flow in most of the regions, respectively. However, the quality of input data and hydrological model structures are the most dominant source of uncertainty in Africa, Latin America, and some parts of Asia. This indicated that these regions have strong hydrological cycle and higher physiographic heterogeneity. We believe that our existing knowledge and skills need to be improved and transformed into an accurate mathematical and physical representation, to minimize the uncertainty due to the effect of choices in the methodology chain. So, disentangling the aggregated uncertainty in the cascade modeling chain can be done by using variances, which can help understand the interaction effect and identify their contribution to the projected extreme flow. This comprehensive review can help modelers to identify and reduce uncertainty in projecting hydrological extremes and policy makers for full awareness of the various uncertainties to make a robust decision for water resources management under climate change. Article Highlights: This study provides a comprehensive review on reducing uncertainty in projecting hydrological extremes from the perspective of an integrated modeling framework Existing knowledge and skills need to be improved and transformed into an accurate mathematical representation The impact of climate change on hydrological extremes is highly variable and uncertain in space and time Uncertainties of the integrated modeling framework can be reduced by decomposing the aggregated uncertainty using variance analysis and/or the modeling chain [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts, which threatens food security, ecosystem protection and restoration initiatives, and fresh water resources availability and quality. Groundwater largely contributes to the mitigation of climate change effects by offering short- to long-term transient water storage. However, groundwater storage remains extremely difficult to monitor. In this paper, we review the strengths and weaknesses of satellite remote sensing techniques for addressing groundwater quantity issues with a focus on GRACE space gravimetry, as well as concepts to combine satellite observations with numerical models and ground observations. One particular focus is the quantification of changes in groundwater resources in the different climatic regions of Africa and the discussion of possible climatic and anthropogenic drivers. We include a thorough literature review on studies that use satellite observations for groundwater research in Africa. Finally, we identify gaps in research and possible future directions for employing satellite remote sensing to groundwater monitoring and management on the African continent. Article Highlights: Overview on the distribution and characteristics of African groundwater resources including future projections Combination of satellite and in situ observations with numerical models allows us to obtain a synoptic view of groundwater-related processes Summary of current concepts and achievements of satellite remote sensing-based groundwater monitoring and decision making over Africa [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the past twenty years, satellite gravimetry missions have successfully provided data for the determination of the Earth static gravity field (GOCE) and its temporal variations (GRACE and GRACE-FO). In particular, the possibility to study the evolution in time of Earth masses allows us to monitor global parameters underlying climate changes, water resources, flooding, melting of ice masses and the corresponding global sea level rise, all of which are of paramount importance, providing basic data on, e.g. geodynamics, earthquakes, hydrology or ice sheets changes. Recently, a large interest has developed in novel technologies and quantum sensing, which promise higher sensitivity, drift-free measurements, and higher absolute accuracy for both terrestrial surveys and space missions, giving direct access to more precise long-term measurements. Looking at a time frame beyond the present decade, in the MOCAST+ study (MOnitoring mass variations by Cold Atom Sensors and Time measures) a satellite mission based on an "enhanced" quantum payload is proposed, with cold atom interferometers acting as gravity gradiometers, and atomic clocks for optical frequency measurements, providing observations of differences of the gravitational potential. The main outcomes are the definition of the accuracy level to be expected from this payload and the accuracy level needed to detect and monitor phenomena identified in the Scientific Challenges of the ESA Living Planet Program, in particular Cryosphere, Ocean and Solid Earth. In this paper, the proposed payload, mission profile and preliminary platform design are presented, with end-to-end simulation results and assessment of the impact on geophysical applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is concerned with how the diabatically-forced overturning circulations of the atmosphere, established by the deep convection within the tropical trough zone (TTZ), first introduced by Riehl and (Malkus) Simpson, in Contr Atmos Phys 52:287–305 (1979), fundamentally shape the distributions of tropical and subtropical cloudiness and the changes to cloudiness as Earth warms. The study first draws on an analysis of a range of observations to understand the connections between the energetics of the TTZ, convection and clouds. These observations reveal a tight coupling of the two main components of the diabatic heating, the cloud component of radiative heating, shaped mostly by high clouds formed by deep convection, and the latent heating associated with the precipitation. Interannual variability of the TTZ reveals a marked variation that connects the depth of the tropical troposphere, the depth of convection, the thickness of high clouds and the TOA radiative imbalance. The study examines connections between this convective zone and cloud changes further afield in the context of CMIP6 model experiments of climate warming. The warming realized in the CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 scenario multi-model experiments, for example, produces an enhanced Hadley circulation with increased heating in the zone of tropical deep convection and increased radiative cooling and subsidence in the subtropical regions. This impacts low cloud changes and in turn the model warming response through low cloud feedbacks. The pattern of warming produced by models, also influenced by convection in the tropical region, has a profound influence on the projected global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evaluating global mean sea level (GMSL) in terms of its components-mass and steric-is useful for both quantifying the accuracy of the measurements and understanding the processes that contribute to GMSL rise. In this paper, we review the GMSL budget over two periods-1993 to 2014 and 2005 to 2014-using multiple data sets of both total GMSL and the components (mass and steric). In addition to comparing linear trends, we also compare the level of agreement of the time series. For the longer period (1993-2014), we find closure in terms of the long-term trend but not for year-to-year variations, consistent with other studies. This is due to the lack of sufficient estimates of the amount of natural water mass cycling between the oceans and hydrosphere. For the more recent period (2005-2014), we find closure in both the long-term trend and for month-to-month variations. This is also consistent with previous studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2000, the World population was 6.2 billion people; it reached 7 billion in 2012 and is expected to reach 9.5 billion (±0.4) in 2050 and 11 billion (±1.5) in 2100, according to the 2012 UN projections (Gerland et al. in Science 346:234-237, ). The trend after 2100 is still one of the global demographic growths, but after 2060, Africa is the only continent where the population would still increase. The amount of water consumed annually to produce the food necessary to meet the needs of the populations varies greatly between countries, from about 600 to 2500 m/year per capita (Zimmer in L'empreinte eau. Les faces cachées d'une ressource vitale. Charles Léopold Meyer, Paris, ), depending on their wealth, their food habits, and the percentage of food waste they generate (on average, 30 % of the food produced is wasted). In 2000, the total food production was on the order of 3300 million tons (in cereal equivalents). In 2014, it is estimated that about 0.8 billion inhabitants of the planet suffer from hunger (FAO in World agriculture: towards 2030-2050. FAO, Rome, . ) and do not get the nutrition they need to be in good health or, in the case of children, to grow properly (both physically and intellectually). This food deficit was on the order of 40 million tons of cereal equivalents in 2014. The number of inhabitants with a food deficit was about 0.85 billion before the 2008 crisis and was decreasing annually, but it increased abruptly after 2008 up to 1 billion inhabitants and is slowly decreasing now. Assuming a World average water consumption for food of 1300 m/year per capita in 2000, 1400 m/year in 2050, and 1500 m/year in 2100, a volume of water of around 8200 km/year was needed in 2000, 13,000 km/year will be needed in 2050, and 16,500 km/year in 2100 (Marsily in L'eau, un trésor en partage. Dunod, Paris, ). Can bioenergy be added to food production? Will that much water be available on Earth, and where will it come from? Is climate change going to modify the answers to these questions? Can severe droughts occur? Can there be conflicts related to a food deficit? Some preliminary answers and scenarios for food production will be given in this paper from a hydrologist's viewpoint. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite gravimetry is a unique measurement technique for observing mass transport processes in the Earth system on a global scale, providing essential indicators of both subtle and dramatic global change. Although past and current satellite gravity missions have achieved spectacular science results, due to their limited spatial and temporal resolution as well as limited length of the available time series numerous important questions are still unresolved. Therefore, it is important to move from current demonstration capabilities to sustained observation of the Earth's gravity field. In an international initiative performed under the umbrella of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, consensus on the science and user needs for a future satellite gravity observing system has been derived by an international panel of scientists representing the main fields of application, i.e., continental hydrology, cryosphere, ocean, atmosphere and solid Earth. In this paper the main results and findings of this initiative are summarized. The required target performance in terms of equivalent water height has been identified as 5 cm for monthly fields and 0.5 cm/year for long-term trends at a spatial resolution of 150 km. The benefits to meet the main scientific and societal objectives are investigated, and the added value is demonstrated for selected case studies covering the main fields of application. The resulting consolidated view on the required performance of a future sustained satellite gravity observing system represents a solid basis for the definition of technological and mission requirements, and is a prerequisite for mission design studies of future mission concepts and constellations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal of this paper is to provide an overview of recent progress regarding the acquisition and processing of surface air temperature data in the Arctic. It highlights potential methodological contributions to the identification and characterization of pattern change, focusing on spatial and temporal correlations and scale-symmetry properties of time series. The presented methods include L-moments, climate network analysis, detrended fluctuations analysis, and Haar wavelet analysis. New results concerning data from high-latitude Arctic stations illustrate some of the presented methodological aspects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both GRACE and GOCE have proven to be very successful missions, providing a wealth of data which are exploited for geophysical studies such as climate changes, hydrology, sea level changes, solid Earth phenomena, with benefits for society and the whole world population. It is indispensable to continue monitoring gravity and its changes from space, so much so that a GRACE follow-on mission has been launched in 2018. In this paper, a new satellite mission concept named MOCASS is presented, which can be considered as a GOCE follow-on, based on an innovative gradiometer exploiting ultra-cold atom technology and aimed at monitoring Earth mass distribution and its variations in time. The technical aspects regarding the payload will be described, illustrating the measurement principle and the technological characteristics of a cold atom interferometer that can measure gravity gradients. The results of numerical simulations will be presented for a one-arm and a two-arm gradiometer and for different orbit configurations, showing that an improvement with respect to GOCE could be obtained in the estimate of the static gravity field over all the harmonic spectrum (with an expected error of the order of 1 mGal at degree 300 for a 5-year mission) and that estimates are promising also for the time-variable gravity field (although GRACE is still performing better at very low degrees). Finally, the progress achievable by exploiting MOCASS observations for the detection and monitoring of geophysical phenomena will be discussed: the results of simulations of key geophysical themes (such as mass changes due to hydrology, glaciers and tectonic effects) with expected gravity change-rates, time constants and corresponding wavelengths, show that an improvement is attainable and that signals invisible to past satellites could be detected by exploiting the cold atom technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth's climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article reviews the state of the art in the use of space-borne observations for analyzing extreme rainfall and flood events in Africa. Floods occur across many space and timescales, from very localized flash flood events to slow propagation of discharge peaks in large rivers. We discuss here how satellite data can help us understand the genesis and impacts of these flood events, monitor their evolution, and better constrain prediction models, thereby improving early warning and population protection. To illustrate these topics, we reanalyze major flood events that occurred in Niger, Mozambique, Central African Republic and Ivory Coast, using satellite information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As sea level is rising along many low-lying and densely populated coastal areas, affected communities are investing resources to assess and manage future socio-economic and ecological risks created by current and future sea level rise. Despite significant progress in the scientific understanding of the physical mechanisms contributing to sea level change, projections beyond 2050 remain highly uncertain. Here, we present recent developments in the probabilistic projections of coastal mean sea level rise by 2100, which provides a summary assessment of the relevant uncertainties. Probabilistic projections can be used directly in some of the decision frameworks adopted by coastal engineers for infrastructure design and land use planning. However, relying on a single probability distribution or a set of distributions based upon a common set of assumptions can understate true uncertainty and potentially misinform users. Here, we put the probabilistic projections published over the last 5 years into context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface gravity waves generated by winds are ubiquitous on our oceans and play a primordial role in the dynamics of the ocean–land–atmosphere interfaces. In particular, wind-generated waves cause fluctuations of the sea level at the coast over timescales from a few seconds (individual wave runup) to a few hours (wave-induced setup). These wave-induced processes are of major importance for coastal management as they add up to tides and atmospheric surges during storm events and enhance coastal flooding and erosion. Changes in the atmospheric circulation associated with natural climate cycles or caused by increasing greenhouse gas emissions affect the wave conditions worldwide, which may drive significant changes in the wave-induced coastal hydrodynamics. Since sea-level rise represents a major challenge for sustainable coastal management, particularly in low-lying coastal areas and/or along densely urbanized coastlines, understanding the contribution of wind-generated waves to the long-term budget of coastal sea-level changes is therefore of major importance. In this review, we describe the physical processes by which sea states may affect coastal sea level at several timescales, we present the methods currently used to estimate the wave contribution to coastal sea-level changes, we describe past and future wave climate variability, we discuss the contribution of wave to coastal sea-level changes, and we discuss the limitations and perspectives of this research field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The achievement of international goals and national commitments related to forest conservation and management, climate change, and sustainable development requires credible, accurate, and reliable monitoring of stocks and changes in forest biomass and carbon. Most prominently, the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals in particular require data on biomass to monitor progress. Unprecedented opportunities to provide forest biomass data are created by a series of upcoming space-based missions, many of which provide open data targeted at large areas and better spatial resolution biomass monitoring than has previously been achieved. We assess various policy needs for biomass data and recommend a long-term collaborative effort among forest biomass data producers and users to meet these needs. A gap remains, however, between what can be achieved in the research domain and what is required to support policy making and meet reporting requirements. There is no single biomass dataset that serves all users in terms of definition and type of biomass measurement, geographic area, and uncertainty requirements, and whether there is need for the most recent up-to-date biomass estimate or a long-term biomass trend. The research and user communities should embrace the potential strength of the multitude of upcoming missions in combination to provide for these varying needs and to ensure continuity for long-term data provision which one-off research missions cannot provide. International coordination bodies such as Global Forest Observations Initiative (GFOI), Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS), and Global Observation of Forest Cover and Land Dynamics (GOFC‐GOLD) will be integral in addressing these issues in a way that fulfils these needs in a timely fashion. Further coordination work should particularly look into how space-based data can be better linked with field reference data sources such as forest plot networks, and there is also a need to ensure that reference data cover a range of forest types, management regimes, and disturbance regimes worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response to warming of tropical low-level clouds including both marine stratocumulus and trade cumulus is a major source of uncertainty in projections of future climate. Climate model simulations of the response vary widely, reflecting the difficulty the models have in simulating these clouds. These inadequacies have led to alternative approaches to predict low-cloud feedbacks. Here, we review an observational approach that relies on the assumption that observed relationships between low clouds and the 'cloud-controlling factors' of the large-scale environment are invariant across time-scales. With this assumption, and given predictions of how the cloud-controlling factors change with climate warming, one can predict low-cloud feedbacks without using any model simulation of low clouds. We discuss both fundamental and implementation issues with this approach and suggest steps that could reduce uncertainty in the predicted low-cloud feedback. Recent studies using this approach predict that the tropical low-cloud feedback is positive mainly due to the observation that reflection of solar radiation by low clouds decreases as temperature increases, holding all other cloud-controlling factors fixed. The positive feedback from temperature is partially offset by a negative feedback from the tendency for the inversion strength to increase in a warming world, with other cloud-controlling factors playing a smaller role. A consensus estimate from these studies for the contribution of tropical low clouds to the global mean cloud feedback is 0.25 ± 0.18 W m K (90% confidence interval), suggesting it is very unlikely that tropical low clouds reduce total global cloud feedback. Because the prediction of positive tropical low-cloud feedback with this approach is consistent with independent evidence from low-cloud feedback studies using high-resolution cloud models, progress is being made in reducing this key climate uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The areal extent, concentration and thickness of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas have strongly decreased during the recent decades, but cold, snow-rich winters have been common over mid-latitude land areas since 2005. A review is presented on studies addressing the local and remote effects of the sea ice decline on weather and climate. It is evident that the reduction in sea ice cover has increased the heat flux from the ocean to atmosphere in autumn and early winter. This has locally increased air temperature, moisture, and cloud cover and reduced the static stability in the lower troposphere. Several studies based on observations, atmospheric reanalyses, and model experiments suggest that the sea ice decline, together with increased snow cover in Eurasia, favours circulation patterns resembling the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation. The suggested large-scale pressure patterns include a high over Eurasia, which favours cold winters in Europe and northeastern Eurasia. A high over the western and a low over the eastern North America have also been suggested, favouring advection of Arctic air masses to North America. Mid-latitude winter weather is, however, affected by several other factors, which generate a large inter-annual variability and often mask the effects of sea ice decline. In addition, the small sample of years with a large sea ice loss makes it difficult to distinguish the effects directly attributable to sea ice conditions. Several studies suggest that, with advancing global warming, cold winters in mid-latitude continents will no longer be common during the second half of the twenty-first century. Recent studies have also suggested causal links between the sea ice decline and summer precipitation in Europe, the Mediterranean, and East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]