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The ongoing COVID-19 crisis and measures aimed at curbing the pandemic have a widespread impact on various aspects of well-being, such as housing, social connections, and others. Moreover, COVID-19 does not affect all population groups equally. This study analyzes the impact of major COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on a set of national well-being indicators from the most recent version of the OECD Well-Being Framework. Using causal loop diagrams (systems maps), we consider direct and indirect effects of these policies on various components of the national well-being system. Our results show that business closures directly and/or indirectly impact more national well-being components than any other policy. The most affected national well-being components by all policies are life satisfaction, perceived health, and prevalence of depressive symptoms. In addition, we specify how the impact of the anti-pandemic measures differs for various population strata, using the degree of income and employment loss as key stratifying variables. Our insights can be helpful to identify and promote measures that can alleviate the adverse effects of the COVID-19 crisis on the national well-being.

Africa’s growth in public infrastructure provision has been fueled by the collective effort of the government authority and foreign private investors. China, through state-owned corporations, has become one of the leading infrastructure financier springing up numerous projects in transport, energy, oil and gas, water, and sewage sectors in Africa. Infrastructure procurement in developing countries comes with complexities and uncertainties. While Sino-Africa transnational public–private partnerships (TPPP) are becoming an increasingly popular route for public infrastructure procurement, their specific project risks and dynamics are not yet fully understood due to the typical assessment of risk autonomously. This paper identifies pertinent project risks in Sino-Africa TPPPs and applies system thinking in evaluating their behaviour and dynamics. An extensive review of literature and expert opinion employing semi-structured interviews was adopted in the identification and assessment of risk factors. Additionally, the study applied causal loop and interpretive structural modelling as an integrated approach in the assessment of risk behaviour from a systems perspective. Results indicate that risk factors associated with Sino-Africa TPPPs are interactive and portray curious systemic behaviour. Risk factors like force majeure and others associated with the governance structure and stability of the host African country are most influential, and their occurrence could inhibit project success. The study recommends that in conjunction with the conventional risk assessment by impact, systems thinking can be adopted to evaluate and comprehend the dynamics and interactions amongst the risk factors. This will improve risk assessment efficiency and fair allocation and treatment of risks as a conduit for project success and promote a win–win partnership for project actors.

Farmers and policy makers pursue management practices that enhance water quality, increase landscape flood resiliency, and mitigate agriculture’s contribution to climate change, all while remaining economically viable. This study presents a holistic assessment of how two practices influence the supply of these ecosystem services—the use of an aerator prior to manure application in haylands, and the stacked use of manure injection, cover crops, and reduced tillage in corn silage production. Field data are contextualized by semi-structured interviews that identify influences on adoption. Causal loop diagrams then illustrate feedbacks from ecosystem services onto decision making. In our study, unseen nutrient pathways are the least understood, but potentially the most important in determining the impact of a practice on ecosystem services supply. Subsurface runoff accounted for 64% to 92% of measured hydrologic phosphorus export. Average soil surface greenhouse gas flux constituted 38% to 73% of all contributions to the equivalent CO2 footprint of practices, sometimes outweighing carbon sequestration. Farmers identified interest in better understanding unseen nutrient pathways, expressed intrinsic stewardship motivations, but highlighted financial considerations as dominating decision making. Our analysis elevates the importance of financial supports for conservation, and the need for comprehensive understandings of agroecosystem performance that include hard-to-measure pathways.

This study explores how school buildings can be exploited more efficiently in the future, since, at present, they remain unused for a substantial amount of time. One possibility to tackle this inefficiency, is to involve the local community more closely in usage of its school building. First, a theoretical analysis was carried out to increase the fundamental understanding of the underlying dynamics related to opening school infrastructure to the local community. Second, focus group discussions were organized to research whether involving the local community in the school building was compatible with educational needs. The first highlighted that more extensive building usage could lead to positive social, environmental, educational and economic benefits. In the second, educational experts stressed that they wanted to adopt more innovative and flexible forms of teaching in the future, such as team teaching. Technical directors expressed concerns on safety issues if the local community is to be more closely involved. In the final step, all findings were translated into their technical consequences. From this analysis, it could be concluded that a school building with a high degree of short-term flexibility was the preferred option to reconcile societal and educational needs.

Unlike other developmental relationships, BRI is the most promising icon in transforming the construction industry and built environment in Africa, the infrastructure developments like highways, bridges, skyscrapers, and aviation take in advanced construction technologies, methods, and skills. However, the technological capability of Chinese construction firms is not transferred in the highest capacity to the host countries. Nevertheless, the main focus is on delivering modern railways, highways, and skyscrapers. Thus, this research aimed to propose an adaptable technology transfer model by identifying the theoretical concepts in the body of knowledge, exploring the prior technology transfer models and the best experiences. The findings indicated that the BRI inclusive countries in Africa benefit from infrastructure development with an investment amount of more than US$33 billion with potential technology spillovers, but in an unplanned, and not best suited to their conditions because of the lack of a single-country-based technology, transfer model ahead of project implementation. Using a systems thinking approach and a causal loop diagram tool, the authors created a conceptual model to guide the Africa’s construction technology transfer through BRI. The research also examined case study projects in Ethiopia to assert the new model’s practicability over the existing processes. Moreover, the university–industry linkage structures, can facilitate the process through R&amp, D and innovation in the whole project life cycle.

This study espouses a multi-strategy method comprising of a qualitative study and system dynamics (SD) to deliver the long-term dynamic behaviour of human resource development (HRD) in Ghana’s oil and gas sector. The adoption of the SD differed from previous studies addressing the local content implementation challenge of human resources, thereby allowing HRD to be considered a ‘system’ which, in turn, aided in comprehensively identifying and analysing the interrelationships among the dominant variables. Focal articles were reviewed to develop a causal loop diagram (CLD) for human resource and subsequently validated qualitatively. The CLD was used for analysing interconnections among the variables in the HRD and as a basis for developing the stock and flow diagram for projections. The study found that local content investment is projected to increase from $799 million to $3.0807 billion in 50 years, with a corresponding revenue increase from $29 billion to $44 billion in 50 years. Subsequent sensitivity analysis compared the local content model results under varying situations, which indicated the possibility of a demand for 20,000 local staff. The study further uncovered two critical issues affecting HRD, namely policy coordination and harmonisation and sustainable funding. These issues are exacerbated by the pervasive political interference in the administrative and operational functions of state oil and gas institutions.

Water is fundamental to our existence and has increasingly been put under pressure by soaring population growth, urbanization, agricultural farming and climate change; all, of which impact the quantity and quality of our water resources. Water utilities (WUs) are challenged to provide clean, safe drinking water when faced with aging, costly infrastructure, a price of water that is not reflective of its true value and the need for infrastructure to remain resilient in a time when threats of floods and droughts are pervasive. In the linear take-use-discharge approach, wastewater is treated only to be returned to waterways and extracted again for treatment before drinking. This can no longer sustain our water resources as it is costly, energy-intensive and environmentally unsound. Circular economy (CE) has been gaining attention in the water industry to tackle this. It follows the 6Rs strategy of reduce, reuse, recycle, reclaim, recover and restore to keep water in circulation for longer and reduce the burden on natural systems. The aim of this study is to determine what the economic and operational system effects of CE are on WUs, informing them of CE’s potential to change their business operations and business model while highlighting its associated challenges. Based on a review of literature, input from expert interviews (Q4 2019) and case studies, an economic view of the urban water system is qualitatively modeled, on top, of which a circular water economy system is designed using a causal loop-diagramming system mapping tool. Digitalization, water reuse and resource recovery were determined to underpin circularity in water, providing operational benefits through efficiencies and diversification of revenue streams. However, issues of investment and a missing enabling legal framework are slowing the rate of uptake. On this basis, CE represents both a challenge and an opportunity for the water industry.

Employee performance is dynamic and can have great impact on the overall performance of any company and its sustainability. A number of factors that can be controlled by the company can affect the employees&rsquo, performance. The present paper starts with a thorough literature review for identifying these key driving in order to develop a system dynamics models that will be able to assess different improvement scenarios and initiatives. Based on causal loop diagrams, stock and flow diagrams are developed and solved using system dynamics theory. The model developed can be used for organizations to assess the impact of different improvement initiatives.

Millions of people fall ill with malaria every year&mdash, most of them are located in sub-Saharan Africa. The weight of the burden of malaria on a society is determined by a complex interplay of environmental and social factors, including poverty, awareness and education, among others. A substantial share of the affected population is characterized by a general lack of anticipation and coping capacities, which renders them particularly vulnerable to the disease and its adverse side effects. This work aims at identifying interdependencies and feedback mechanisms in the malaria social vulnerability system and their variations in space by combining concepts, methods and tools from Climate Change Adaptation, Spatial Analysis, and Statistics and System Dynamics. The developed workflow is applied to a selected set of social, economic and biological vulnerability indicators covering five East-African Nations. As the study areas&rsquo, local conditions vary in a multitude of aspects, the social vulnerability system is assumed to vary accordingly throughout space. The study areas&rsquo, spatial entities were therefore aggregated into three system-regions using correlation-based clustering. Their respective correlation structures are displayed as Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs). While the three resulting CLDs do not necessarily display causal relations (as the set of social vulnerability indicators are likely linked through third variables and parts of the data are proxies), they give a good overview of the data, can be used as basis for discussions in participatory settings and can potentially enhance the understanding the malaria vulnerability system.

Africa’s growth in public infrastructure provision has been fueled by the collective effort of the government authority and foreign private investors. China, through state-owned corporations, has become one of the leading infrastructure financier springing up numerous projects in transport, energy, oil and gas, water, and sewage sectors in Africa. Infrastructure procurement in developing countries comes with complexities and uncertainties. While Sino-Africa transnational public–private partnerships (TPPP) are becoming an increasingly popular route for public infrastructure procurement, their specific project risks and dynamics are not yet fully understood due to the typical assessment of risk autonomously. This paper identifies pertinent project risks in Sino-Africa TPPPs and applies system thinking in evaluating their behaviour and dynamics. An extensive review of literature and expert opinion employing semi-structured interviews was adopted in the identification and assessment of risk factors. Additionally, the study applied causal loop and interpretive structural modelling as an integrated approach in the assessment of risk behaviour from a systems perspective. Results indicate that risk factors associated with Sino-Africa TPPPs are interactive and portray curious systemic behaviour. Risk factors like force majeure and others associated with the governance structure and stability of the host African country are most influential, and their occurrence could inhibit project success. The study recommends that in conjunction with the conventional risk assessment by impact, systems thinking can be adopted to evaluate and comprehend the dynamics and interactions amongst the risk factors. This will improve risk assessment efficiency and fair allocation and treatment of risks as a conduit for project success and promote a win–win partnership for project actors.

The Kilombero wetland in Tanzania is affected by advancing land use and land cover changes (LULCC), where we observe a conflict between development interests and the necessity of conservation measures to maintain the functionalities of the ecosystem. Thus, assessing patterns of LULCC is crucial to foresee potential future developments and to develop sustainable future management strategies. In this study, we use a multi-method scenario approach to assess the spatial implications and underlying driving forces of potential change by (1) developing a System Dynamics Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) to disentangle the underlying socio-economic and ecologic driving forces, (2) deriving a qualitative business-as-usual (BAU) and a conservation scenario from participatory narratives elaborated during a stakeholder workshop, and (3) quantifying the spatial implications of these scenarios with the Land Change Modeler (LCM). Results indicate that under the BAU assumption only 37% of the natural vegetation is expected to persist until 2030 in the wetland. In contrast, strict enforcement of protected areas (conservation scenario) halts further conversion of the wetland. However, both scenarios pinpoint considerable expansions of cropland in the western highlands with potentially serious impacts on catchment-wide hydrological processes. The produced qualitative and quantitative outputs reveal hotspots of possible future change and starting points for advisable further research and management interventions.

With the advent of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the role of entrepreneurs has become more crucial than ever. As a result, an open innovation model is suggested here that can promote serial entrepreneurs by answering the following question: &ldquo, How does the serial entrepreneur in open innovation conditions continuously identify business opportunities?&rdquo, This question is answered through an in-depth case study of Medison from 1985 to 2016, as Medison is not only a representative Korean medical device company, but is also a representative example of serial entrepreneurship in Korea. First, we examined the diverse open innovation channels, such as spin-offs, venture investment, and joint venture, used by Medison before it was merged with Samsung. Second, we examined the open innovation serial entrepreneurs of Medison and then analyzed the direct serial entrepreneurs of Medison. Fourth, we built a causal loop model of Medison open innovation with emergence and complexity combined. Finally, a sustainable open innovation strategy and an approach to sustainable serial entrepreneurship was formulated. The foundation of this research is as follows. First, an open innovation strategy can be a strong motivator for serial entrepreneurs. Second, a balance between emergence and complexity is required to trigger sustainable serial entrepreneurs of open innovation.

Dockless bike-sharing programs (DBSPs) are typical representatives of the new era of the internet economy. These schemes alleviate urban traffic congestion, reduce carbon emissions, and change people&rsquo, s preferred travel modes, but they also suffer from a series of problems related to unsustainability. The sustainability performance of a DBSP is closely related to its influencing factors, which can be used to understand the main challenges of the program and consider what useful measures should be taken to overcome these issues. Therefore, it is essential to investigate the related factors that are critical to the sustainability of DBSPs from a systems-level perspective. In this paper, we explored publicly available data sources (i.e., literature, institutional reports, and announcements) to determine the intrinsic influencing factors and understand their interactions and feedback relationships. A taxonomy of the key challenges with respect to the fundamental pillars of DBSP sustainability (i.e., environment, society, and economy) was provided. System dynamics methodology was employed to map the critical factors and links in order to analyze the key challenges in facilitating the sustainability of DBSPs. Based on this approach, we put forward proposals to mitigate the severe challenges for governments and DBSP operators. The findings provide a theoretical basis and guiding role to develop improvement strategies for DBSP sustainability.

Sustainability assessments of marine protected areas (MPAs) are essential for improving the effectiveness of management efforts. Since sustainability is closely related to the concept of intergenerational well-being, measuring and tracking it through time is crucial. Therefore, this study will use the system dynamics approach applied at Pieh marine park as the study site. A system dynamics model was built comprising four sub-models: fish population dynamics, coral reef coverage, tourism, and pollution. The goodness-of-fit test of the model indicated low and unsystematic model error. The sustainability assessment was conducted using the three principles of sustainability proposed by Herman Daly, which define sustainability for resource management based on the change in the amount of renewable resources, non-renewable resources, and pollution. The sustainability assessment determined that Pieh marine park cannot sustain economic activities in its area, indicated by decreasing renewable resource indicators in the form of fish population dynamics, coral reef coverage, and increasing pollution levels. Several management interventions can be applied to improve sustainability, including lowering the total allowable catch, coral transplantation, and improved waste management.

Peri-urban areas in developing countries pose unique governance challenges because of their rapid development. Villages in these areas are under-served in terms of the provision of waste management services. This research focused on an exploratory workshop conducted in one peri-urban village in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region, India, to raise community awareness regarding the importance of contributing towards effective waste management in their village and the means by which they can do so. The findings of the workshop show its effectiveness in raising the awareness levels of self-help group members. In addition to these findings, causal loop diagrams were drawn to construct effective institutional mechanisms from the perspective of the capacities of the participants and the officials. This study examined the policy initiatives necessary for meeting the sanitation and waste management needs of peri-urban villages. Inferences regarding the institutionalization of linkages between self-help groups and local bodies were made based on the principles of sociocracy. Theoretical insight was provided regarding the different factors affecting this system, and how this model is flexible enough to accommodate the contextual needs of peri-urban villages.

Existing buildings energy-saving renovation is an important means to cope with global warming and an essential component of achieving China&rsquo, s energy conservation and pollution emissions reduction strategy goals. The development of the energy-saving renovation market is closely related to its influencing factors, which determine the reasons and conditions for the development of the system, therefore, it is necessary to study the influencing factors of energy-saving transformations. System dynamics was applied to explore the feedback relationship between the service subsystem, the demand market subsystem, and the market regulation subsystem. Analysis was performed for the intrinsic influencing factors of the development of the existing building energy-saving renovation market and the interaction law of feedback relationship. This paper discusses the basic characteristics of government incentives, Energy Service Company (ESCO) technology innovation, ESCO&rsquo, s revenue, and owner&rsquo, s awareness to promote the development of the existing building energy-saving renovation market. Base on those, it puts forward suggestions for promoting the market development of existing buildings energy-saving reconstruction. The findings provided a theoretical basis and guiding role for the Chinese government to formulate support policies for existing building energy-saving renovation. At the same time, it also provides reference for other countries to develop existing buildings energy-saving renovation market.

Policymaking requires an in-depth understanding of the cause-and-effect relationships between the sustainable development goals. However, due to the complex nature of socio-economic and environmental systems, this is still a challenging task. In the present article, the interconnectedness of the United Nations (UN) sustainability goals is measured using the Granger causality analysis of their indicators. The applicability of the causality analysis is validated through the predictions of the World3 model. The causal relationships are represented as a network of sustainability indicators providing the opportunity for the application of network analysis techniques. Based on the analysis of 801 UN indicator types in 283 geographical regions, approximately 4000 causal relationships were identified and the most important global connections were represented in a causal loop network. The results highlight the drastic deficiency of the analysed datasets, the strong interconnectedness of the sustainability targets and the applicability of the extracted causal loop network. The analysis of the causal loop networks emphasised the problems of poverty, proper sanitation and economic support in sustainable development.

In recent years, after the publication of Regulation (EU) 2018/848 on organic production and the labelling of organic products, all stakeholders have been considering threats and opportunities in the development of the organic food and beverage sector. The aim of the study outlined in this paper was to analyse the development prospects of the Italian organic wine sector in light of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) environmental and climate objectives. Specifically, the study focussed on applying a System Dynamics Approach (SDA) and a Network Analysis in order to explain how the most relevant social–economic determinants of the national organic wine sector are in all likelihood influencing the hoped-for shift from conventional to organic production. Such conversion appeared to be worth exploring because, despite the increasing global demand for organic wine, the economic effects on the entire system are still somewhat unclear from a dynamic perspective. The results of the study clearly demonstrated that public policies and regulatory actions at the national and European level will continue to be very influential for the future of the national organic wine system. Different development pathways, such as groups of operators and the adoption of the new national certification system for the sustainability of the entire wine supply chain, should be undertaken by Italian “small wine operators” in order to gain international markets.

Well-being has become an important policy goal to replace gross domestic product (GDP) as an indicator of national progress. Several multidimensional metrics and indicators of well-being have been developed mostly based on the four-capital model that includes natural, economic, human and social capital. These multidimensional measures of well-being, however, are highly categorical and lack a systems perspective that focuses on underlying mechanisms of the metrics and the interconnections between them. This study aims at bringing a systems thinking approach to understanding and measuring national well-being, particularly from a human capital perspective. For this purpose, we employ a qualitative systems mapping approach and identify the direct or indirect relationships between the well-being indicators related to human capital. The results show that the human capital system is governed by several reinforcing feedback loops through economic progress, health and life expectancy, which gives a central role to human capital to enhance well-being. There are balancing loops, however, that may have adverse effects on human capital formation and well-being, for instance through migration and ageing. Future studies can focus on the other three subsystems in the four-capital model, and on quantifying the relationships between different dimensions of well-being.

The rapid development of the shipping industry has brought great economic benefits but at a great environmental cost; exhaust emissions originating from ships are increasing, causing serious atmospheric pollution. Hence, the mitigation of ship exhaust emissions and the establishment of the sustainable ecosystem have become urgent tasks, which will require complicated and comprehensive systematic approaches to solve. We address this problem by establishing a System Dynamics (SD) model to help mitigate regional ship exhaust emissions without restricting economic growth and promote the development of the sustainable ecosystem. Factors correlated with ship exhaust emissions are identified, and a causal loop diagram is drawn to describe the complicated interrelations among the correlated factors. Then, a stock-and-flow diagram is designed and variable equations and parameter values are determined to quantitatively describe the dynamic relations among different elements. After verifying the effectiveness of the model, different scenarios for the sustainable development in the study area were set by changing the values of the controlling variables. The variation trends of the exhaust emissions and economic benefits for Qingdao port under different scenarios were predicted for the years 2015–2025. By comparing the simulation results, the effects of different sustainable development measures were analyzed, providing a reference for the promotion of the harmonious development of the regional environment and economy.

In an increasingly mobile world, transience is becoming the norm. Sustainable community food initiatives, therefore, must organise to withstand high turnover of volunteers. Using a case study of the United Kingdom&rsquo, s National Union of Students&rsquo, food growing scheme in universities, this paper aims to map the causes and effects of short-term, irregular, and low participation using a causal loop diagram to understand how to mitigate their negative impacts and improve participation. Data was gathered through interviews, workshops, photovoice, a fishbowl discussion, and a reflective diary. We found three amplifying feedback loops increasing short-term, irregular and low participation, their causes, and their impacts. These feedback loops were precariously buffered by a continuous in-flow of new potential participants each academic year. We also found that the stakeholders of these gardens conceptualised time akin to both temporary and permanent organisations, and these differing conceptualisations were a source of tension. Furthermore, although &lsquo, organisational amnesia&rsquo, was a problem, the gardens were still learningful spaces. We recommend both upstream and downstream solutions are implemented to buffer the impacts of transience and suggest that university and students&rsquo, union staff could play a crucial and subtle supporting role.

It is recognized that international water sector development work has issues with a lack of sustained positive outcomes. A large driver of this outcome is how NGOs work with communities to implement and then manage water services. Many NGOs tend to focus their efforts on improving their reach and organisational growth by continually engaging in new projects. This behaviour is largely driven by short-term donor funding models that reward extended coverage, leaving little focus on sustained outcomes. Similarly, community-based management (CBM) schemes often impede sustained services as a result of the community’s limited capacity to operate and maintain the technology. To explore these complicated drivers on water service sustainability, we used causal loop diagramming to analyse the key aspect influencing the combined dynamics between NGOs, donors and CBM. We demonstrate this methodology through a study in Timor-Leste, where we gathered data necessary to develop and apply causal loop diagrams to analyse rural water supply program outcomes. The analysis of these diagrams allowed identification of leverage points used to suggest structural changes for sustained benefits of water services. These structural changes emphasize the importance of increased robustness and reliability of water technology and the associated impact this has on community satisfaction and, conjointly, on water service sustainability.

"Efforts to increase forest cover in the developing world will only succeed if the root causes of deforestation are addressed. Researchers designing reforestation initiatives tend to emphasize macro-level drivers of deforestation, about which they have extensive data and knowledge. On the other hand, local people have contextually based knowledge of forest cover dynamics in their region???about which external researchers may be largely ignorant. This type of perception gap between researchers and community members has led to many failed or insufficiently implemented projects. An emerging tool???group model-building with system dynamics???shows promise in its ability to integrate different perspectives on a complex problem such as forest cover loss. In this study, I use system dynamics modeling methodology to compare causal loop diagrams of forest cover dynamics on Negros Island, Philippines generated by researchers working for the World Wildlife Fund with causal loop diagrams generated by community members in upland Negros. The diagrams were significantly different, with very few variables in common, but both illuminate critical aspects of the deforestation problem on the island. I conclude that reforestation initiatives in the Philippines would benefit from incorporating all relevant information into a single, coherent model."

National policies for science parks and innovation have been identified as one of the major driving forces for the innovation-driven economy, especially for publicly funded science parks. To investigate this collaborative ecosystem (government-academia-industry) for growth and sustainable development, this paper proposes a nation-wide economic impact analysis of science parks and innovation policy based on historical data drawn from one of the globally recognized high-technology industrial clusters in Taiwan. Systems thinking with causal loop analysis are adopted to improve our understanding of the collaborative ecosystem with science park policies. First, from a holistic viewpoint, the role of government in a science parks and innovation ecosystem is reviewed. A systems analysis of an innovation-driven economy with a science park policy is presented as a strategy map for policy implementers. Second, the added economic value and employment of the benchmarked science parks is evaluated from a long range perspective. Third, the concepts of government-academia-industry collaboration and policies to innovation ecosystem are introduced while addressing the measures and performance of innovation and applied R&D in the science parks. We conclude with a discussion of lessons learned and the policy implications of science park development and an innovation ecosystem.

Economic development and urbanization poses myriad challenges to transportation systems in relation to negative externalities such as traffic congestion and environmental health risks. Accra, the capital of Ghana, faces mounting urban planning problems, for example traffic congestion, air pollution, traffic safety, and land use planning, among others. The paper aims to provide a system dynamics perspective of the problems. Most of the drivers and cause-effect relationships of traffic congestion and its attendant air pollution are investigated and analyzed using causal loop diagrams. The paper further suggests mechanisms by which the negative externalities associated with road transport in the city of Accra can be addressed.

In this article, we take stock of the findings from conceptual and empirical work on the role of transition initiatives for accelerating transitions as input for modeling acceleration dynamics. We applied the qualitative modeling approach of causal loop diagrams to capture the dynamics of a single transition initiative evolving within its regional context. In doing so, we aim to address two key challenges in transition modeling, namely conceptualization, and the framing of empirical insights obtained for various case study regions in a consistent modeling framework. Our results show that through this systematic approach one can translate conceptual and qualitative empirical work into a transition model design. Moreover, the causal loop diagrams can be used as discussion tools to support dialogue among researchers and stakeholders, and may support a comparison of transition dynamics across case-study regions. We reflect on main limitations related to empirical model validation (lack of data) and to model structure (high level of aggregation), and describe next steps for moving from a qualitative single transition initiative to a quantitative multiple transition initiatives model.

The dynamics of land-use transitions decrease the coastal resilience of the social-ecological landscape (SEL), particularly in light of the fact that it is necessary to analyze the causal relationship between the two systems because operations of the social system and the ecological system are correlated. The purpose of this study is to analyze the dynamics of the coastal SEL and create a sustainable land-use planning (SLUP) strategy to enhance coastal resilience. The selected study site was Shindu-ri, South Korea, where land-use transitions are increasing and coastal resilience is therefore decreasing. Systems thinking was used to analyze the study, which was performed in four steps. First, the issues affecting the coastal area in Shindu-ri were defined as coastal landscape management, the agricultural structure, and the tourism industry structure. Second, the main variables for each issue were defined, and causal relationships between the main variables were created. Third, a holistic causal loop diagram was built based on both dynamic thinking and causal thinking. Fourth, five land-uses, including those of the coastal forest, the coastal grassland, the coastal dune, the agricultural area, and developed sites, were selected as leverage points for developing SLUP strategies to increase coastal resilience. The results show that “decrease in the size of the coastal forest”, “decrease in the size of the coastal dune”, and “increase in the size of the coastal grasslands” were considered parts of a land-use plan to enhance the resilience of the Shindu-ri SEL. This study developed integrated coastal land-use planning strategies that may provide effective solutions for complex and dynamic issues in the coastal SEL. Additionally, the results may be utilized as basic data to build and implement coastal land-use planning strategies.

There is a growing interest in the bio-based economy, evident in the policy domain as well as in the academic literature. Its proponents consider it an opportunity to address multiple societal challenges, and the concept has broad reach across different sectors of society. However, a potential transition process is also linked to areas of risk and uncertainty, and the need for interdisciplinary research and for the identification of potential trade-offs and synergies between parallel visions of the bio-based economy have been emphasized. The aim of this paper is to contribute to addressing this gap by using an approach combining tools for systems analysis with expert interviews. Focusing specifically on dynamics in the agricultural sector in Sweden, an integrated understanding of the social and ecological processes contributing to or hindering a transition in this area is developed, high order leverage points are identified, and potential impacts of proposed interventions explored. The paper also considers cross-sectoral linkages between the forestry and agricultural sectors.

A transition to a bio-based economy would entail change in coupled social–ecological systems. These systems are characterised by complexity, giving rise to potential unintended consequences and trade-offs caused by actions aiming to facilitate a transition process. Yet, many of the analyses to date have been focusing on single and predominantly technological aspects of the bio-based economy. The main contribution of our work is to the development of an integrated understanding of potential future transition pathways, with the present paper focusing specifically on terrestrial biological resources derived from the forestry sector in Sweden. Desired change processes identified include a transition to diversified forest management, a structural change in the forestry industry to enable high-value added production, and increased political support for the bio-based economy concept. Hindrances identified include the ability to demonstrate added values for end consumers of novel biomass applications, and uncertainty linked to a perceived high level of polarisation in the forestry debate. The results outline how these different processes are interrelated, allowing for the identification of high order leverage points and interventions to facilitate a transition to a bio-based economy.

Industrial symbiosis (IS) is presented as an inter-firm organizational strategy with the aim of social innovation that targets material and energy flow optimization but also structural sustainability. In this paper, we present geographical proximity as the theoretical framework used to analyse industrial symbiosis through a methodology based on System Dynamics and the underpinning use of Causal Loop Diagrams, aiming to identify the main drivers and hindrances that reinforce or regulate the industrial symbiosis’s sustainability. The understanding of industrial symbiosis is embedded in a theoretical framework that conceptualizes industry as a complex ecosystem in which proximity analysis and stakeholder theory are determinant, giving this methodology a comparative advantage over descriptive statistical forecasting, because it is able to integrate social causal rationality when forecasting attractiveness in a region or individual firm’s potential. A successful industrial symbiosis lasts only if it is able to address collective action problems. The stakeholders’ influence then becomes essential to the complex understanding of this institution, because by shaping individual behaviour in a social context, industrial symbiosis provides a degree of coordination and cooperation in order to overcome social dilemmas for actors who cannot achieve their own goals alone. The proposed narrative encourages us to draw up scenarios, integrating variables from different motivational value dimensions: efficiency, resilience, cooperation and proximity in the industrial symbiosis. We use the Dunkirk case study to explain the role of geographical systems analysis, identifying loops that reinforce or regulate the sustainability of industrial symbiosis and identifying three leverage points: “Training, workshop and education programs for managers and directors,” “Industrial symbiosis governance” and “Agreements in waste regulation conflicts.” The social dynamics aims for the consolidation of the network, through stakeholder interaction and explains the local success and failure of every industrial symbiosis through a system dynamics analysis.