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Mangroves, which are vulnerable to natural threats and human activities on small islands in the tropics, play an essential role as carbon sinks, helping to mitigate climate change. In this study, we discussed the effect of natural factors on mangrove sustainability by analyzing the impact of rainfall, land surface temperature (LST), and tidal inundation on the greenness of mangroves in Karimunjawa National Park (KNP), Indonesia. We used Sentinel-2 image data to obtain the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalized difference moisture index (NDMI) during the dry season to determine the effect of inundation on mangrove greenness and soil moisture. The tidal inundation area was calculated using topographic data from the KNP and tidal observations from the area adjacent to it. Unmanned autonomous vehicles and topographic data were used to estimate mangrove canopy height. We also calculated mangrove greenness phenology and compared it to rainfall from satellite data from 2019–2021. Results show that the intertidal area is dominated by taller mangroves and has higher NDVI and NDMI values than non-intertidal areas. We also observed that mangroves in intertidal areas are mostly evergreen, and optimum greenness in KNP occurs from February to October, with maximum greenness in July. Cross-correlation analysis suggests that high rainfall affects NDVI, with peak greenness occurring three months after high rainfall. The LST and NDVI cross-correlation showed no time lag. This suggests that LST was not the main factor controlling mangrove greenness, suggesting tides and rainfall influence mangrove greenness. The mangroves are also vulnerable to climate variability and change, which limits rainfall. However, sea-level rise due to climate change might positively impact mangrove greenness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Blue carbon ecosystems in the Karimunjawa Islands may play a vital role in absorbing and storing the releasing carbon from the Java Sea. The present study investigated mangrove above-ground biomass (AGB) and carbon stock in the Karimunjawa-Kemujan Islands, the largest mangrove area in the Karimunjawa Islands. Taking the aerial photos from an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle combined with Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements, we generated Digital Surface Model (DSM) and Digital Terrain Model (DTM) with high accuracy. We calculated mangrove canopy height by subtracting DSM from DTM and then converted it into Lorey's height. The highest mangrove canopy is located along the coastline facing the sea, ranging from 8 m to 15 m. Stunted mangroves 1 m to 8 m in height are detected mainly in the inner areas. AGBs were calculated using an allometric equation destined for the Southeast and East Asia region. Above-ground carbon biomass is half of AGB. The AGB and carbon biomass of mangroves in the Karimunjawa-Kemujan Islands range from 8 Mg/ha to 328 Mg/ha, and from 4 MgC/ha to 164 MgC/ha, respectively. With a total area of 238.98 ha, the potential above-ground carbon stored in the study area is estimated as 16,555.46 Mg. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]