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Land use conflict is an inevitable and objective phenomenon during regional development, with significant impacts on both regional economic growth and ecological security. Scientifically assessing the spatiotemporal evolution of these conflicts is essential to optimize land use structures and promote sustainable resource utilization. This study employs multi-period land use/land cover remote sensing data from China to develop a model for the measurement of land use conflict from the perspective of the landscape ecological risk. By applying the optimal landscape scale method to determine the most appropriate analysis scale, this research investigates the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land use conflicts in the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration from 2000 to 2020. Furthermore, by integrating the Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model with the Multi-Objective Programming (MOP) algorithm, this study simulates the spatial patterns of land use conflict in 2030 under four scenarios: Natural Development (ID), Economic Development (ED), Ecological Conservation (PD), and Sustainable Development (SD). The findings reveal that, from 2000 to 2020, the proportion of areas with strong and moderately strong conflict levels in the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration increased by 2.19%, while the proportion of areas with weak and moderately weak conflict levels decreased by 1.45%, underscoring the growing severity of land use conflict. The predictions for 2030 suggest that the spatial pattern of conflict under various scenarios will largely reflect the trends observed in 2020. Under the ID scenario, areas with weak and moderately weak conflict levels constitute 57.5% of the region; this increases by 0.85% under the SD scenario. Conversely, areas experiencing strong and moderately strong conflict levels, which stand at 33.02% under the ID scenario, decrease by 1.04% under the SD scenario. These projections indicate that the SD scenario, which aims to balance ecological conservation with economic development, effectively mitigates land use conflict, making it the most viable strategy for future regional development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use/cover change (LUCC) can either enhance the areal carbon reserve capacity or exacerbate carbon emission issues, thereby significantly influencing global climate change. Comprehending the impact of LUCC on regional carbon reserve variation holds great significance for regional ecosystem preservation and socioeconomic sustainable development. This study focuses on Liaoning Province, leveraging land use remote sensing data from three periods from 2000 to 2020, natural environmental data and socioeconomic data in conjunction with the Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, and patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) models. It analyzes the interactive relationship between LUCC and carbon reserves in Liaoning Province between 2000 and 2020 and forecasts the trajectory of carbon reserve changes in Liaoning Province under various scenarios: business as usual, urban development, cropland protection, and ecological protection, all based on LUCC simulations. The findings indicate the following: (1) Over the study period, Liaoning Province experienced significant LUCC characterized primarily by the transformation of farmland to built-up land. Carbon reserves initially declined and later increased due to LUCC changes, resulting in a cumulative increase of 30.52 Tg C. The spatial distribution of carbon reserves was influenced by LUCC, displaying a pattern of spatial aggregation, with higher values in the east and lower values in the west. (2) Across the four simulation scenarios, the spatial pattern of carbon reserves in Liaoning Province continued to exhibit the characteristic spatial aggregation of higher values in the east and lower values in the west. Under the urban development scenario, carbon reserves decreased by 34.56 Tg C tons, representing a 2.45% decrease compared to 2020. Conversely, under the business-as-usual, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection scenarios, carbon reserves displayed a growing tendency, reaching 1449.35 Tg C, 1450.39 Tg C, and 1471.80 Tg C, respectively, with changes of 0.09%, 0.16% and 1.63% compared to 2020. The substantial increase in carbon reserves under the ecological protection scenario primarily stemmed from the significant expansion of woodland and other ecological land areas. In light of these findings, Liaoning Province may consider laying down and strictly executing spatial policies for ecological protection in future land projecting. The PLUS model and InVEST model can help curb the uncontrolled expansion of built-up land, facilitate the increment of ecological land areas, and with effect augment carbon reserves, thereby ensuring the achievement of the "double carbon" target of carbon peak and carbon neutralization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The examination of land-use change simulations across a range of scenarios represents a pivotal research avenue for the advancement of sustainable development analysis. Nevertheless, the extant research merely categorises all building land in a land-use classification into a single category, which is unable to provide a detailed analysis of the dynamic internal spatial form of the city. This paper analyses 17 LCZ land-use types in Guiyang City in 2013 and 2022, and reclassifies them into 7 RLCZ land-use types based on the height of urban building sites. It also proposes three possible scenarios of BAU, WLC, and SPC in 2040 and simulates their land-use changes using the PLUS model. The results demonstrate that (1) the size of low-rise buildings in Guiyang has declined significantly over the past decade; (2) built-up land within cities is significantly affected by drivers such as night-time lighting, topography, elevation, and roads; (3) the SPC scenario emphasises a development pattern of land intensification and a focus on high density in urban built space. It also protects the stability of the ecosystem. The scenario can provide informative suggestions for spatial pattern changes in rapidly developing cities such as Guiyang. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use change profoundly impacts habitat quality, necessitating an understanding of historical and future trends for effective regional planning and ecological protection, particularly in ecologically sensitive areas. This study examines the Taihu Lake Basin (TLB), a region undergoing significant land use changes and exhibiting considerable ecological vulnerability. Utilizing the InVEST model (v3.14.2), we analyzed the dynamics of land use and habitat quality in the TLB from 2000 to 2020. We subsequently employed the PLUS model (v1.40) to predict future land use and habitat quality under various scenarios. Our key findings include the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, TLB experienced a 97.62% increase in construction land, alongside significant reductions in cultivated land and forestland. (2) Population density, precipitation, DEM, and temperature were identified as the main drivers of land use expansion in TLB. (3) Habitat quality declined by 11.20% over the study period, exhibiting spatial disparities including higher quality in the southwest and central regions and lower quality in the east and north. (4) Scenarios prioritizing urban development led to substantial construction land expansion and reduced habitat quality, whereas scenarios emphasizing ecological protection effectively mitigated habitat fragmentation. This study highlights the critical need to integrate ecological protection into regional planning to balance economic development with environmental sustainability. The findings underscore the importance of prioritizing ecological conservation in land use policies to maintain habitat quality and promote sustainable development in the TLB. These insights are valuable for guiding future land use planning and ecological management in similarly sensitive regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The assessment of soil erosion in a region can provide an effective reference for local ecological environment management. The Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau54 is an important ecological security barrier in southwest China, owing to its unique climatic and environmental characteristics and superior natural resource endowment. The current research focus is the spatial analysis of a certain area. In this study, soil erosion in the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau during 2000–2030 was analyzed and predicted from two aspects of structure and spatial layout by coupling several models. The report also analyzes the shift in the center of gravity of land use and analyzes the drivers of soil erosion, analyzing soil erosion by land use type. The study shows a decreasing trend in the soil erosion modulus from 2000 to 2020 from 1183.69 to 704.58 t·hm−2·a−1, but it is expected to have an increasing trend in the future and will increase to 877.72 t·hm−2·a−1. Analyzing the drivers of soil erosion allows for testing whether the factor affects the spatial distribution of the independent variable and to what extent it explains that dependent variable. This study showed that elevation had the highest explanatory power for soil erosion. Relatively high mountainous areas are often subject to greater soil erosion due to their steep topography, resulting in poorer vegetation cover. The north–south offset distance is greater than the east–west offset distance for forested land, water and unutilized land, and the east–west offset distance is greater than the north–south offset distance for cropland, grassland and built-up land in the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau. The purpose of this study is to identify areas of serious soil erosion vulnerability in the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau, and to analyze the driving factors affecting soil erosion vulnerability, so as to provide a basis for regional soil erosion management, and, at the same time, to provide a reference for the government to formulate soil and water conservation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Kuye River is the second largest tributary of the middle Yellow River. (1) Background: The Kuye River Basin, a typical erosion area of the Loess Plateau region, faces significant environmental challenges and intense human activities. Balancing environmental sustainability and economic development in this region is urgent. (2) Methods: This study analyses the phenomena, evolutionary processes, driving mechanisms, and future development trends. We assess ecological risks and drivers of land use change using data from 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2022. (3) Results: Farmland, grassland, and construction land are the main land use types, accounting for 85.63% of the total area. Construction land increased by 7.95 times over 22 years, mainly due to the conversion of woodland, grassland, and farmland. The landscape pattern increased in patches from 4713 in 2000 to 6522 in 2022. Patch density decreased from 0.0945 to 0.0771 between 2000 and 2015, then rose to 0.0788 in 2022. Post-2015, increased human intervention and urban development led to significant landscape fragmentation and higher ecological risk, expected to persist until 2030. Geographical detector analysis identified distance from roads, distance from cities, night light, and precipitation as key factors influencing landscape ecological risk. The interaction of anthropogenic disturbance with other factors showed a non-linear increase in risk, with combined factors having a greater impact than individual ones. (4) Conclusions: The Kuye River Basin's landscape ecological risk is influenced by both natural conditions and human activities. To achieve sustainability, it is essential to protect critical areas, regulate development, and improve the adaptive management of ecological risks through innovative policies, integrated regulations, and technological solutions for ecosystem restoration. These findings provide empirical evidence to support decision-making and underscore the need for comprehensive strategies to mitigate ecological risks and promote sustainable development in the Kuye River Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the background of rapid urbanization, strengthening the research on the response and dynamic mechanism of ecosystem services to land use is conducive to the optimization of land space and ecological restoration and governance in megacities. Using Hefei City as a case study, we examined specific ecosystem services and analyzed how water yield, habitat quality, carbon storage, and soil conservation changed over time from 2000 to 2020. We utilized spatial information technology and the InVEST model to assess these changes. Additionally, we developed a comprehensive ecological service index (CES) and used Geodetector and regression models to investigate how ecosystem services responded to land use. In addition, we utilized the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model (PLUS) to simulate the spatial distribution of land use in 2030. This was performed under four different scenarios: natural development (ND), urban development (UD), cultivated land protection (CP), and ecological protection (EP). Furthermore, we assessed the effects of these land-use changes on ecosystem service functions by integrating the PLUS results with InVEST. The findings indicate the following: (1) between 2000 and 2020, farmland consistently remained the dominant land-use type in Hefei City while construction land experienced significant growth. Land-use conversion was prevalent during this period, and each ecological indicator exhibited noticeable geographic variation; (2) during the past 20 years, the comprehensive ecosystem service index (CES) exhibited clear spatial clustering patterns. The different types of land use showed significant quantitative relationships with CES. Specifically, cultivated land, forest land, grassland, and water area had positive correlations, while construction land had a negative correlation. Geodetector analysis revealed that the proportion of ecological land use had the greatest impact on the spatial differentiation of CES, followed by population density; (3) according to the PLUS simulation, the UD scenario results in a significant conversion of cultivated land and grassland into construction land, leading to the greatest decrease in CES. In the ND scenario, the areas with decreasing CES are mostly areas that have been converted from other land types to construction land. In contrast, the EP scenario shows an increase in forest land and grassland, which promotes the enhancement of multiple ecosystem service functions simultaneously. This indicates that the EP scenario is the most favorable for sustainable land-use development. The study investigates the impact of land-use changes on ecosystem services and evaluates the sustainability of regional land use. The findings have both theoretical and practical significance for effectively managing land use and regulating ecological functions in large cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use profoundly impacts the sustainable development of the ecological environment. Optimizing land use patterns is a vital approach to mitigate climate change and achieve carbon neutrality. Using Shandong Province as a case study, this research evaluates the impacts of land use and land cover change (LUCC) on regional carbon storage and emissions. Employing a coupled PLUS–InVEST–GM(1,1) model, simulations were conducted for scenarios including the natural scenario (NS), cropland protection scenario (CPS), high-speed development scenario (HDS), and low-carbon scenario (LCS), to assess LUCC and changes in carbon storage and emissions from 2030 to 2060 under these scenarios. The findings indicate that due to the expansion of construction land and significant declines in arable and grassland areas, carbon emissions increased by 40,436.44 × 104 t over a 20-year period, while carbon storage decreased by 4881.13 × 104 t. Notably, forests contributed the most to carbon sequestration, while construction land emerged as the primary source of carbon emissions. Simulating four scenarios demonstrates that measures such as protecting cropland, expanding forest, grassland, and aquatic areas, controlling construction land expansion, and promoting intensive development positively affect emission reductions and carbon sequestration in Shandong. These findings underscore the importance of rational planning of land use patterns, which can enhance contributions to carbon neutrality by harmonizing the relationships among cropland protection, ecological conservation, and economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accelerated urbanization process drives urban spatial expansion, making it essential to clarify the driving factors of this expansion and the corresponding ecosystem service value (ESV) response for effective regional urban planning. We selected Xining City, a typical plateau valley city with a spatial layout constrained by mountainous and riverine topography, as our study area. We analyzed land changes in Xining City over the past 20 years using the land transfer matrix and the PLUS model, and predicted land use changes under different scenarios for 2030. By combining these analyses with the improved unit area equivalent factor method, we quantitatively assessed the drivers of urban expansion in the main urban area of Xining City from 2000 to 2030 and estimated the ESV. The results showed that: (1) Over the past two decades, Xining City has experienced notable urban expansion, particularly along the Huangshui River, Beichuan River, and Nanchuan River. The urban construction land is mainly converted from cropland and grassland, and the simulation results under different scenarios in the future of 2030 show that the area of cropland and grassland continues to decrease. (2) The spatial expansion of urban areas in Xining City is primarily influenced by topographical factors, with urban transportation planning exerting a secondary influence. Distinct levels of roads exhibit varying degrees of impact on the expansion of constructed areas, with tertiary roads demonstrating the most widespread and substantial influence. Conversely, factors such as population density, GDP, and proximity to government have lesser influence on urban expansion. (3) The ecosystem service value (ESV) of Xining City exhibits a general decline from 2000 to 2030, marked by a significant loss of arable land and grassland and substantial shifts in ESV. Simulated ESV outcomes under diverse scenarios for 2030 consistently underscore that, irrespective of policy orientations, urban expansion and development, despite guarantees for urban, cropland, and ecological preservation, inevitably engender diminishing ecosystem service functionalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the preservation of ecosystems, including the enhancement of ecological strategies, examining the temporal and geographical variance in ecosystem services (ESs) and land use/land cover change (LUCC) is crucial. Gannan is situated on the upper Yellow River, which is a notable water conservation region with excellent ecological quality, but in the background of the local traditional production mode and rapid economic development, natural disasters, grassland degradation, and other ecological problems occur frequently. The integrated valuing of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) model and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model are combined in this work to assess the spatiotemporal variance in ESs in Gannan. We set up three scenarios in modeling future land use—ecological protection (EP), natural development (ND), and economic development (ED) in 2050—and analyzed and evaluated the drivers of the variation in ESs. In order to reveal the LUCC in Gannan between 1990 and 2020, we predicted the LUCC and ESs spatial distribution characteristics in 2050, explored the correlation between its driving factors, and comprehensively analyzed and propose optimization measures and protection strategies. Through several simulation experiments, the findings indicate the following: (1) the largest percentage of land expansion for construction in Gannan between 1990 and 2020 is 74.53%, and the most noticeable percentage of shrinkage in the sand area is 20.67%; (2) from 1990 to 2020, Gannan's water yield, carbon storage, soil retention, and habitat quality all changed, by 60 × 108 m3, 0.04 × 108 t, −10.66 × 108 t, and −0.02, respectively; (3) ESs are influenced by a variety of natural and societal variables: the southern and southwestern regions of Gannan are home to the majority of ESs hot spot areas, while the northern region is home to the majority of cold spot areas. This study contributes to the analysis of the developmental traits of Gannan ecosystems and can serve as a model for the preservation of terrestrial ecosystems with comparable environmental traits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evaluation of landscape ecological risk (LER) in a river basin holds significant importance for the overall ecological environmental protection of the basin and subsequent sustainable development. The Shiyang River basin, a typical arid inland river basin, was selected as the research object, and the optimal scale of LER research was explored. Multi-period land use data was used to build an LER assessment model and reveal the temporal and spatial changes of LER in the Shiyang River basin. The PLUS model was used to simulate the spatial distribution characteristics and change trends of LER under different scenarios in 2030. The results show that the LER in the Shiyang River Basin has obvious scale dependence, with optimal granularity and magnitude of 60 m and 4.5 km, respectively. LER is dominated by higher risk and high risk categories, with significant spatial differences, showing a trend of low in the southwest and high in the northeast. The LER of the Shiyang River Basin decreased from 2000 to 2020. It is expected that the LER value under different scenarios in 2030 will show a downward trend, and the LER value under the ecological conservation priority scenario will be the lowest. This study can provide a reference for LER assessment in arid inland river basins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southwest China's arid river valleys represent ecologically vulnerable areas with intense human activity. Understanding the historical changes in LULC and land cover and projecting the impacts of various development scenarios on future LULC have become crucial for regional spatial information management and territorial spatial planning. This research analyzes the land-use changes in the Yuanmou dry-hot valley over a 30-year span from 1990 to 2020. Building upon the PLUS model, we established a coupled habitat quality spatial and multi-scenario land-use simulation model. Four development scenarios were proposed: natural progression, economic development, ecological conservation, and balanced development. We conducted simulations and evaluations of land-use in the Yuanmou dry-hot valley for 2030 using the PLUS mode, assessing the sustainability of future development scenarios under varying ecological constraints. During the simulation, three distinct RESI regions were employed as restricted development zones, integrating the three ecological constraints with the four simulation scenarios. We introduced a novel approach based on ecological environmental quality as the ecological constraint, providing a scientific reference for sustainable development in ecologically vulnerable areas. The results indicate that under ecological conservation scenarios with high-to-low RESI constraints, the ecological environment is superior to the other three scenarios. The results show the following: (1) From 1990 to 2020, aside from a continuous decrease in grassland area, there was an increasing trend in the areas of water bodies, forests, croplands, construction lands, and unused lands in the Yuanmou dry-hot valley. (2) By 2030, under all four development scenarios, the cropland area is expected to expand rapidly, while forested areas will decrease; grassland areas will decline under natural and economic development scenarios but show opposite trends under the other scenarios; and construction land and unused land areas will decrease under the ecological conservation and balanced development scenarios. (3) Land-use intensity analysis for the four scenarios indicated that, by 2030, unused lands in the Yuanmou dry-hot valley are more likely to be converted into water bodies, forests are more likely to be converted into croplands and grasslands, grasslands are more likely to be converted into croplands, croplands are more likely to be converted into grasslands, and construction lands are more likely to become unused lands. (4) Sustainable LULC management evaluations based on landscape indices reveal that ecological conservation and balanced development scenarios exhibit superior landscape connectivity and clustering. Thus, the balanced development scenario is the most appropriate LULC strategy for the Yuanmou dry-hot valley in the future. These findings provide scientific references for balancing ecological conservation and economic development in the arid river valleys of Southwest China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on the spatiotemporal changes in land use/cover (LUC) and carbon storage (CS) in the region of the Taihang Mountains in various developmental scenarios can provide significant guidance for optimizing the structure of LUC and formulating ecologically friendly economic development policies. We employed the PLUS and InVEST models to study change in LUC and CS in the Taihang Mountains from 1990 to 2020. Based on these results, we established three distinct development scenarios: a business-as-usual development scenario, a cropland protection scenario, and an ecological conservation scenario. Based on these three developmental scenarios, we simulated the spatiotemporal changes in LUC and CS in the Taihang Mountains in 2035. The results indicate that: (1) from 1990 to 2020, the CS in the Taihang Mountains increased from 1575.91 Tg to 1598.57 Tg, with a growth rate of approximately 1.44%. The primary source of this growth is attributed to the expansion of forests. (2) In the business-as-usual development scenario, the growth rate of CS in the Taihang Mountains was approximately 0.45%, indicating a slowdown in the trend. This suggests that economic development has the consequences of aggravating human–land conflicts, leading to a deceleration in the growth of CS. (3) In the cropland protection scenario, the increase in the CS in the Taihang Mountains was similar to the CS increase in the business-as-usual development scenario. However, the expansion of cropland dominated by impermeable surfaces, which indicates economic development, was considerably constrained in this scenario. (4) In the ecological conservation scenario, the increase in carbon storage in the Taihang Mountains was 1.16%, which is the fastest among all three scenarios. At the same time, there was a certain degree of development of impermeable surfaces, achieving a balance between economic development and ecological conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding land use/cover change (LUCC) and landscape ecological risk change in the context of future climate warming can help adjust socio-economic development policies, optimize regional ecological security patterns, and promote green and low-carbon development on the one hand and provide important supplements and improvements for research in related fields on the other. Taking Urumqi as the study area, based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-modal ensemble data, we used the coupled system dynamics (SD) model and patch-generation land use simulation (PLUS) model to simulate land use change under three SSP-RCP scenarios in 2020–2060, and we predicted trends of landscape ecological risk change in this 40-year period by using the landscape ecological risk index (LERI). The results indicate that woodland and grassland significantly increase under the SSP126 scenario. Unused land is larger in the SSP245 scenario. The expansion trend of construction land toward cultivated land is most obvious in the SSP585 scenario; additionally, the area of water increases more distinctly in this scenario. The overall landscape ecological risk under the three SSP-RCP scenarios is reduced to different degrees; in particular, the risk level of urban built-up areas and nature reserves decreases remarkably, and the area of the highest risk zones of unused land is also gradually narrowed. By 2060, the average LERI under the SSP126 scenario is the lowest. The study findings can help relevant departments formulate reasonable urban development plans, which are of great theoretical and practical significance for guaranteeing regional ecological security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modifications in land use patterns exert profound influences on the configuration, arrangement, and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, thereby inducing fluctuations in carbon sequestration. Consequently, precise ecological decision-making and an in-depth exploration of the interplay between land use alterations and carbon storage dynamics assume paramount importance in the pursuit of optimal regional land use configurations. In this investigation, we employed the InVEST model to analyze the spatiotemporal variations in land utilization and carbon storage in Hunan Province, based on comprehensive land use data spanning the period from 2000 to 2020. Additionally, the PLUS model was utilized to project the future spatial distribution of carbon storage in Hunan Province until 2040, encompassing diverse development scenarios. The findings of our study are as follows: (1) Land use changes instantaneously impact carbon storage within the study area. From 2000 to 2020, urban construction land witnessed an expansion of 3542 km2, which accounted for an increase from 1.13% to 2.78% of the total land area. Consequently, there was a decline in arable land, woodlands, and grasslands, resulting in a reduction of 3430.25 tons of carbon storage in Hunan Province. (2) The ecological protection scenario is projected to yield the most substantial increase in carbon storage, with an estimated magnitude of 7.02 × 10⁶ tons by the year 2040. According to the natural evolution scenario, the total amount of carbon storage is anticipated to remain similar to that of 2020, with a marginal increase of 2.81 × 10⁵ tons. Under the arable land protection scenario, carbon storage is predicted to decrease by 1.060 × 10⁷ tons. Conversely, the urban development scenario is expected to result in the most substantial reduction of 2.243 × 10⁷ tons of carbon storage. These findings underscore the efficacy of adopting ecological protection and natural development policies in curbing the decline in carbon storage. (3) The geographic distribution of carbon storage areas exhibits a strong correspondence with that of land use. Regions characterized by elevated carbon storage levels exhibit minimal urban construction land, an abundance of compact and contiguous ecological land, and a higher frequency of such land parcels. To enhance regional carbon storage levels and achieve sustainable development goals, future endeavors should prioritize the implementation of ecological protection and natural development policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The changeable patterns and contractions of land use have become increasingly significant in recent years as the economy and society have rapidly developed. Subsequently, land use change simulation has become a focal point in the study of land use patterns and change processes. Four development scenarios in 2030, including business-as-usual, ecological protection, economic development, and sustainable development scenarios, are proposed to realize the sustainable development of land use in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei in the context of a low-carbon economy and ecological security. Then, a feasible multi-objective land use optimization scheme suitable for the region's long-term development was identified through comparative analysis. The GMOP-PLUS model analyzed changes in ecological and economic benefits and carbon emissions by optimizing the quantitative structure and spatial layout of land use in different scenarios. The cultivated land area in the four scenarios decreased, while the construction land area increased for all scenarios other than the ecological protection and sustainable development scenarios. Moreover, the target development of the sustainable development scenario was the most balanced, with carbon emissions and economic benefits reduced by 49.77 million tons and CNY 0.73 billion compared with the business-as-usual scenario, respectively. Meanwhile, the ecological benefits increased by CNY 0.03 billion, and the economic benefits increased by 1.54 times compared with those in 2020. Therefore, the sustainable development scenario was more in line with the needs of Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei for high-quality economic and ecological development, aiming towards a low-carbon goal. This work provides a theoretical basis for Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei territorial spatial planning and more perspectives for the study of sustainable land use through the obtained results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land-use change plays an important role in ecological change; knowing the trends in land-use change can quickly help identify problems in regional ecosystems. In 2000 to 2020, the development of a global economy caused increasing extreme weather events worldwide and lead to exacerbating changes in types of land-use. The Yellow River source area is an important water source and a central part of ecological protection efforts in China. The fragile ecosystems make the area sensitive to environmental changes. Therefore, in protecting the ecological security of the basin, simulating changes in the ecosystem service value under different scenarios is a meaningful procedure. A patch-generating land use simulation model was used to simulate different land use scenarios in 2030, including an ecological protection scenario, a production priority scenario, a carbon neutral scenario and a natural development scenario. The analysis shows that significant progress has been made in water conservation but grassland conservation faces enormous challenges. The rate of development, occupation of farmland and land dedicated to construction has increased. Unused land increased dramatically from 2010–2020 and has not been mitigated by existing policies. Based on the unit area value equivalent coefficients, the ecosystem service value rankings for the seven land use types were as follows: Grassland > Wetland > Water Area > Forest > Farmland > Unused Land > Construction Land; the four types of ecosystem service value are ranked as follows: regulating services > supporting services > supply services > cultural services; the four scenarios of ecosystem service value are ranked as follows: ecological protection scenario > production priority scenario > carbon neutral scenario > natural development scenario. The ecosystem service value of the Yellow River source area would increase by CNY 1.641 billion in 2030 with ecological protection goals and decrease by CNY 1.421 billion with the current of development. This study provides valuable insights and implications for land use, ecological protection and sustainable development by shedding light on watershed change issues and assessing and predicting the ecological status of the Yellow River source area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In efforts to improve regional ecosystem service functions, coordinate land development and ecological conservation, and establish a reference for optimizing land resource allocation and policy formulation to cope with climate change, it is critical to investigate the spatial distribution of land use/cover change (LUCC) and ecosystem services (ESs) under future climate change. This study proposes a framework based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP), integrating the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) model to analyze the spatial agglomeration of ESs, to analyze the importance of each driving factors. The results of the study show as follows: (1) the combination of CMIP6 and PLUS models can effectively simulate land use with an overall accuracy of 0.9379. (2) In spatial correlation, ESs show good clustering in all three future scenarios, with similar distribution of cold hotspots in the SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios. Hotspots are more dispersed and cold spots are shifted to the west in the SSP585 scenario. (3) GDP is an important factor in carbon storage and habitat quality, and precipitation has a greater impact on soil retention and water production. Overall, ESs can be increased by appropriately controlling population and economic development, balancing economic development and ecological protection, promoting energy transition, maintaining ecological hotspot areas, and improving cold spot areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) change is one of the core features of global change. Habitat quality is an essential representation of ecosystem service functioning and ecosystem health. It is of great significance to assess the habitat quality spatiotemporal heterogeneity caused by land-use change in the regional ecological environment for security and sustainable regional management. Based on the interpreted LULC data of the Yellow River Delta (YRD) in 2000, 2010, and 2020, the PLUS model was used to forecast different LULC 2030 scenarios. Specifically, this study aimed to analyze the LULC change in the YRD and use the InVEST model to evaluate the overall habitat quality in the historical period of the region and future scenarios. From 2000 to 2020, the most critical land-use changes within a 20 km radius from the coastline in the study area are mainly the sharp increase in construction land, mariculture and salt pan, and the sharp decline of coastal wetlands, which is mainly due to the high intensity of human development activities and the process of erosion and deposition in coastal zones and estuarine deltas. During the period, the average habitat quality in the YRD decreased yearly, with the overall regional habitat quality classified as intermediate. The habitat quality was the most significant in the 0–20 km range from the coastline because of the high intensity of human development activities in this area. The habitat quality in the YRD varied under different scenarios in 2030. In the baseline scenario (BS) and socio-economic development (SD) scenario, the habitat quality decreased continuously, but the habitat quality increased under the ecological protection (EP) scenario. This research can provide relevant scientific references for optimizing landscape patterns and improving habitat quality in the YRD region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolution of regional land use is a complex process under the combined effect of multiple factors, and it is important to understand this evolution process, as well as its characteristics and future trends, through land use change models in order to achieve scientific use of land space and optimize the regional development pattern. In this study, the PLUS model is used to simulate the land use in 2035 for the natural development scenario, the urban expansion scenario and the ecological protection scenario using the middle reaches of Yangtze River urban agglomeration (MRYRUA) as the study area, and then to calculate the ecosystem service values (ESV) and analyze the contribution of each driver to each land type and the spatial autocorrelation of the ESV at the grid scale. The results show that (1) the land use changes in the study area from 2015 to 2020 are mainly: the rapid expansion of construction land with an increase of 200,221 hm2 and an increase in arable land, specifically 85,982 hm2, and a decrease in all other land types. (2) The ESV of the study area was CNY 3,837,282 million and CNY 3,774,162 million from 2015 to 2020, respectively, with an general decreasing trend. (3) Three scenarios are simulated for the study area in 2035, and the ESVs under the natural development scenario, urban expansion scenario and ecological conservation scenario are CNY 3,618,062 million, CNY 3,609,707 million and CNY 3,625,662 million, respectively, which are all lower than those in 2020. (4) The global autocorrelation indices for 2020 and the three scenarios are 0.7126, 0.7104, 0.7144 and 0.7104, respectively, which are significantly positive. The simulation of MRYRUA land use and the comparative analysis of ESV provide some help in the strategic optimization of the spatial distribution pattern of land use in large regional urban agglomerations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use and cover change (LUCC) has a non-negligible impact on both carbon emissions and carbon sinks. Based on the analysis of land use dynamics in Shandong Province, this study simulates land use changes in Shandong Province in 2030 under the Natural Development Scenario (NDS) and Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), classifies the risk level of carbon emissions in Shandong Province using the Land Use Carbon Emission (LUCE) risk indexes, and compares the differences between the risk level regions under NDS and SDS. This study shows that under the influence of LUCC, the carbon emissions in Shandong province increased significantly, from 90.5591 million tons in 2000 to 493.538 million tons in 2020, with urban land being the main source of carbon emissions, which increased from 90.0757 million tons in 2000 to 490.139 million tons in 2020. The main source of the increase in urban land was cropland. The LUCE was positively correlated with urban land area. The LUCE of SDS was 7.2423 million tons less than that of NDS. From 2000 to 2020, the risk areas of LUCE in Shandong province were mainly no-risk and mild-risk areas. The number of moderate-risk areas and high-risk areas of SDS was less than that of NDS. The rational organization of land use is important for Shandong Province to achieve low-carbon development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The security of cultivated land is the foundation for stable social and economic development. In recent years, with rapid economic development, urbanization around the world has been accelerating. The demand for urban construction expansion is increasing day by day and lands used for cultivation are being infiltrated by construction, posing a serious threat to food security. This study used the land-use data from Haikou City in 1980, 2000, 2010 and 2020, to generate a transfer matrix, kernel density analysis and landscape pattern index to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution of cultivated land in Haikou. The PLUS model was used to explore potential factors driving land-use evolution. Results show that cultivated land in Haikou was continuously lost from 1980 to 2020 and the area of cultivated land decreased by 7020.58 ha. Loss was most significant during 2010–2020 when cultivated land ascended into construction land in the northern region of the city. Spatial distribution of cultivated land in Haikou is generally characterized by "dense in the southwest and sparse in the northwest", and the spatial density of cultivated land in the northwest continuously decreased from 1980 to 2020. In the past 40 years, the degree of spatial aggregation for cultivated land in Haikou has decreased and the degree of fragmentation has increased. The primary factors driving changes in spatial-temporal patterns over the past 40 years has been the distance from roads and high-speed railways and the distance from water. During the 40-year timespan, Haikou continued to lose cultivated land areas due to the interaction of social and natural factors such as road traffic and water resources. The juxtaposition between the demand for urban construction lands and the protection of cultivated land has become increasingly evident. Due to the threat cultivated lands are facing in the northern area of Haikou, we suggest future expansion of construction development land should be strictly controlled. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid urbanization in recent years as a vehicle for social growth and ecological construction has resulted in a significant transformation of the spatial structure of the land in the lower reaches of the Yellow River. Based on this, the current study used the PLUS model to simulate the future territorial spatial pattern of the lower reaches of the Yellow River in various development scenarios to reveal differences in the ecosystem's spatial distribution and provide a reference for optimizing territorial spatial usage and ecological protection. The results show that the overall accuracy of the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model's simulation results was 0.748, the Kappa coefficient was 0.812, and the simulation effect was good. The simulation results for each land space in various situations reveal a preferential spatial development trend model. In the territorial and spatial priority scenario, development was reasonably balanced, which is consistent with the status of the quantitative structure of the territorial space of the study area during 2015. From 2015 to 2035, the value of ecosystem services will change in different ways depending on the scenario and the set priorities. The ecosystem service value decreased in the production space and living space priority development scenarios, while it increased in the ecological space and national space priority development scenarios. The PLUS model has a high degree of applicability to the spatial pattern development simulation of the lower Yellow River region, and the results of this multi-scenario simulation and ecological environmental effect study may be used as a reference for future territorial spatial planning and policy formulation in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use change is an important cause of habitat quality change. In order to reveal the impact of urban land use change on habitat quality, and to explore sustainable development planning, this paper uses the city of Tianjin, China, as a case study. Based on land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020, the PLUS model was first used to predict land use in 2030 under three scenarios, and the InVEST model was then used to assess habitat quality from 2000 to 2030. This study showed that habitat quality was highly correlated with land use change. The rapid expansion of construction land was the main reason for the year-by-year decline in habitat quality. From 2000 to 2030, habitat quality in Tianjin declined year-by-year according to the average habitat quality values for 2030 for the three scenarios: the Ecological Protection Scenario (EPS) > Natural Development Scenario (NPS) > Economic Construction Scenario (ECS). In the EPS, habitat quality will deteriorate and improve. It would be ecologically beneficial to continue to work on the revegetation of the Jizhou area. In the ECS, habitat quality will decline sharply. In Tianjin, urbanization will continue to accelerate. This is a threat to the sustainable development of the city. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]