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Recently, transfer learning has gained popularity in the machine learning community. Transfer Learning (TL) has emerged as a promising paradigm that leverages knowledge learned from one or more related domains to improve prediction accuracy in a target domain with limited data. However, for time series forecasting (TSF) applications, transfer learning is relatively new. This paper addresses the need for empirical studies as identified in recent reviews advocating the need for practical guidelines for Transfer Learning approaches and method designs for time series forecasting. The main contribution of this paper is the suggestion of a comprehensive framework for Transfer Learning Sensitivity Analysis (SA) for time series forecasting. We achieve this by identifying various parameters seen from various angles of transfer learning applied to time series, aiming to uncover factors and insights that influence the performance of transfer learning in time series forecasting. Undoubtedly, symmetry appears to be a core aspect in the consideration of these factors and insights. A further contribution is the introduction of four TL performance metrics encompassed in our framework. These TL performance metrics provide insight into the extent of the transferability between the source and the target domains. Analyzing whether the benefits of transferred knowledge are equally or unequally accessible and applicable across different domains or tasks speaks to the requirement of symmetry or asymmetry in transfer learning. Moreover, these TL performance metrics inform on the possibility of the occurrence of negative transfers and also provide insight into the possible vulnerability of the network to catastrophic forgetting. Finally, we discuss a sensitivity analysis of an Ensemble TL technique use case (with Multilayer Perceptron models) as a proof of concept to validate the suggested framework. While the results from the experiments offer empirical insights into various parameters that impact the transfer learning gain, they also raise the question of network dimensioning requirements when designing, specifically, a neural network for transfer learning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces an enhanced variant of the Adam optimizer—the BGE-Adam optimization algorithm—that integrates three innovative technologies to augment the adaptability, convergence, and robustness of the original algorithm under various training conditions. Firstly, the BGE-Adam algorithm incorporates a dynamic β parameter adjustment mechanism that utilizes the rate of gradient variations to dynamically adjust the exponential decay rates of the first and second moment estimates ( β 1 and β 2 ), the adjustment of β 1 and β 2 is symmetrical, which means that the rules that the algorithm considers when adjusting β 1 and β 2 are the same. This design helps to maintain the consistency and balance of the algorithm, allowing the optimization algorithm to adaptively capture the trending movements of gradients. Secondly, it estimates the direction of future gradients by a simple gradient prediction model, combining historic gradient information with the current gradient. Lastly, entropy weighting is integrated into the gradient update step. This strategy enhances the model's exploratory nature by introducing a certain amount of noise, thereby improving its adaptability to complex loss surfaces. Experimental results on classical datasets, MNIST and CIFAR10, and gastrointestinal disease medical datasets demonstrate that the BGE-Adam algorithm has improved convergence and generalization capabilities. In particular, on the specific medical image gastrointestinal disease test dataset, the BGE-Adam optimization algorithm achieved an accuracy of 69.36%, a significant improvement over the 67.66% accuracy attained using the standard Adam algorithm; on the CIFAR10 test dataset, the accuracy of the BGE-Adam algorithm reached 71.4%, which is higher than the 70.65% accuracy of the Adam optimization algorithm; and on the MNIST dataset, the BGE-Adam algorithm's accuracy was 99.34%, surpassing the Adam optimization algorithm's accuracy of 99.23%. The BGE-Adam optimization algorithm exhibits better convergence and robustness. This research not only demonstrates the effectiveness of the combination of these three technologies but also provides new perspectives for the future development of deep learning optimization algorithms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate and fast traffic prediction is the data-based foundation for achieving traffic control and management, and the accuracy of prediction results will directly affect the effectiveness of traffic control and management. This paper proposes a new spatiotemporal periodic polynomial model for road traffic, which integrates the temporal, spatial, and periodic features of speed time series and can effectively handle the nonlinear mapping relationship from input to output. In terms of the model, we establish a road traffic speed prediction model based on polynomial regression. In terms of spatial feature extraction methods, we introduce a maximum mutual information coefficient spatial feature extraction method. In terms of periodic feature extraction methods, we introduce a periodic trend modeling method into the prediction of speed time series, and effective fusion is carried out. Four strategies are evaluated based on the Guangzhou road speed dataset: a univariate polynomial model, a spatiotemporal polynomial model, a periodic polynomial model, and a spatiotemporal periodic polynomial model. The test results show that the three methods proposed in this article can effectively improve prediction accuracy. Comparing the spatiotemporal periodic polynomial model with multiple machine learning models and deep learning models, the prediction accuracy is improved by 5.94% compared to the best feedforward neural network. The research in this article can effectively deal with the temporal, spatial, periodic, and nonlinear characteristics of speed prediction, and to a certain extent, improve the accuracy of speed prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is crucial to evaluate and anticipate stability under various conditions, as the ability to stabilize a smart grid (SG) is one of its key features for assessing the effectiveness of its design. Intelligent approaches to stability forecasting are necessary to mitigate inadvertent instability in SG design. This is particularly crucial with the expansion of residential and commercial infrastructures, along with the growing integration of renewable energies into these grids. Predicting the stability of SGs is currently a major challenge. The concept of an SG encompasses a broad range of emerging technologies in which artificial intelligence (AI) plays a crucial role and is increasingly being utilized in light of the limitations of conventional methods. It empowers informed decision-making and adaptable responses to fluctuations in customer energy needs, unexpected power outages, rapid changes in renewable energy generation, or any unforeseen crises within an SG system. In this paper, we propose a symmetric approach to enhance SG stability by integrating various machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) algorithms, where symmetry is observed in the balanced application of these diverse computational techniques to predict and ensure the grid's stability. These algorithms utilized a dataset containing the simulation results of the SG stability. The learning phase of these algorithms is based on imprecise and unreliable data. To overcome this limitation, the fusion of classifiers can be a powerful approach to modeling inaccurate and uncertain data, providing more robust and reliable predictions than individual classifiers. Voting and Dempster–Shafer (DS) methods, two commonly used techniques in ensemble learning, were employed and compared. The results show that the use of the fusion of distinct classifiers with voting theory achieves an accuracy of 99.8% and outperforms several other methods including the DS method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]