1. Application of a variance‐based sensitivity analysis method to the Biomass Scenario Learning Model
- Author
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Daniel Inman, Paige Jadun, Brian Bush, Steve Peterson, and Laura Vimmerstedt
- Subjects
business.industry ,Computer science ,Strategy and Management ,05 social sciences ,Variance (accounting) ,Machine learning ,computer.software_genre ,01 natural sciences ,System dynamics ,010104 statistics & probability ,Management of Technology and Innovation ,0502 economics and business ,STELLA (programming language) ,Production (economics) ,Artificial intelligence ,Sensitivity (control systems) ,0101 mathematics ,business ,Variance-based sensitivity analysis ,Adaptation (computer science) ,computer ,050203 business & management ,Social Sciences (miscellaneous) ,Experience curve effects - Abstract
Variance‐based sensitivity analysis can provide a comprehensive understanding of the input factors that drive model behavior, complementing more traditional system dynamics methods with quantitative metrics. This paper presents the methodology of a variance‐based sensitivity analysis of the Biomass Scenario Learning Model, a published STELLA model of interactions among investment, production, and learning in an emerging competitive industry. We document the methodology requirements, interpretations, and constraints, and compute estimated sensitivity indices and their uncertainties. We show that application of variance‐based sensitivity analysis to the model allows us to test for non‐additivity, identify influential and interactive variables, and confirm model formulation. To enable use of this type of sensitivity analysis in other system dynamics models, we provide this study's R code, annotated to facilitate adaptation to other studies. A related paper describes application of these techniques to the much larger Biomass Scenario Model.
- Published
- 2017
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