1. Development of a Novel Clinicomolecular Risk Index to Enhance Mortality Prediction and Immunological Stratification of Adults Hospitalized with Sepsis in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Pilot Study from Uganda
- Author
-
Matthew J. Cummings, Barnabas Bakamutumaho, Komal Jain, Adam Price, Nicholas Owor, John Kayiwa, Joyce Namulondo, Timothy Byaruhanga, Moses Muwanga, Christopher Nsereko, Stephen Sameroff, W. Ian Lipkin, Julius J. Lutwama, and Max R. O’Donnell
- Subjects
Infectious Diseases ,Virology ,Parasitology - Abstract
The global burden of sepsis is concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where epidemic HIV and unique pathogen diversity challenge the effective management of severe infections. In this context, patient stratification based on biomarkers of a dysregulated host response may identify subgroups more likely to respond to targeted immunomodulatory therapeutics. In a prospective cohort of adults hospitalized with suspected sepsis in Uganda, we applied machine learning methods to develop a prediction model for 30-day mortality that integrates physiology-based risk scores with soluble biomarkers reflective of key domains of sepsis immunopathology. After model evaluation and internal validation, whole-blood RNA sequencing data were analyzed to compare biological pathway enrichment and inferred immune cell profiles between patients assigned differential model-based risks of mortality. Of 260 eligible adults (median age, 32 years; interquartile range, 26–43 years; 59.2% female, 53.9% living with HIV), 62 (23.8%) died by 30 days after hospital discharge. Among 14 biomarkers, soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (sTNFR1) and angiopoietin 2 (Ang-2) demonstrated the greatest importance for mortality prediction in machine learning models. A clinicomolecular model integrating sTNFR1 and Ang-2 with the Universal Vital Assessment (UVA) risk score optimized 30-day mortality prediction across multiple performance metrics. Patients assigned to the high-risk, UVA-based clinicomolecular subgroup exhibited a transcriptional profile defined by proinflammatory innate immune and necroptotic pathway activation, T-cell exhaustion, and expansion of key immune cell subsets including regulatory and gamma-delta T cells. Clinicomolecular stratification of adults with suspected sepsis in Uganda enhanced 30-day mortality prediction and identified a high-risk subgroup with a therapeutically targetable immunological profile. Further studies are needed to advance pathobiologically informed sepsis management in SSA.
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF