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Online intermediaries with information about a consumer’s tendencies often ‘steer’ her toward products she is more likely to purchase. We analyse the welfare implications of this practice for ‘fallible’ consumers, who make statistical and strategic mistakes in evaluating offers. The welfare effects depend on the nature and quality of the intermediary’s information and on properties of the consumer’s mistakes. In particular, steering based on high-quality information about the consumer’s mistakes is typically harmful, sometimes extremely so. We argue that much real-life steering is of this type, raising the scope for a broader regulation of steering practices.

This paper studies optimal fiscal policy in a currency union subject to capital flow shocks in an economy with two main ingredients: (i) sticky prices and (ii) financially constrained arbitrageurs. Given capital outflows and high external debt, the fiscal authority faces a trade-off between stimulating the economy or paying off external debt. The planner reduces the value-added tax in the short run, while it raises and front-loads the sum of value-added tax and payroll taxes. It is not optimal to use spending to stimulate the economy. The country engages in a fiscal consolidation, as government debt falls compared with a passive fiscal policy.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, large parts of the economy were locked down and, as a result, households’ income risk rose sharply. At the same time, policy makers put forward the largest stimulus package in history. In the United States it amounted to $2 trillion, a quarter of which represented transfer payments to households. To the extent that such transfers were (i) announced in advance and (ii) conditional on recipients being unemployed, they mitigated income risk associated with the lockdown—in contrast to unconditional transfers. We develop a baseline scenario for a COVID-19 recession in a medium-scale heterogeneous agent new Keynesian model and use counterfactuals to quantify the impact of transfers. For the short run, we find large differences in the transfer multiplier: it is negligible for unconditional transfers and about unity for conditional transfers. Overall, we find that the transfers reduced the output loss due to the pandemic by some two percentage points at its trough.

Do members of a majority group systematically shift punishment onto innocent members of an ethnic minority? We introduce an experimental paradigm, punishing the scapegoat game, to measure how injustice affecting a member of one's own group shapes punishment of an unrelated bystander. When no harm is done, we find no evidence of discrimination against the ethnic minority (Roma people in Slovakia). In contrast, when a member of one's own group is harmed, the punishment ‘passed’ onto innocent individuals more than doubles when they are from the minority, as compared to when they are from the dominant group.

This paper examines the causal effect of political legitimacy on stability, using the historical case of Imperial China. Chinese rulers ascribed their legitimacy to a heavenly mandate. Calamities like earthquakes were considered to be a sign of weakened approval, making quakes a proxy for a negative legitimacy shock. I use quake-induced minor shaking (i.e., strong enough to be felt, but too weak to cause material damage) to demonstrate that legitimacy shocks cause more conflicts. I examine whether quakes serve as a coordination device to overcome collective action problems.

We study the role of new-product quality for the dynamics of durable-good expenditures around the Great Recession. We assemble a rich dataset on US new-car markets during 2004–12, combining data on transaction prices with detailed information about vehicles’ technical characteristics. During the recession, a reallocation of expenditures away from high-quality new models accounts for a significant decline in the dispersion of expenditures. In turn, car manufacturers introduced new models of lower quality. The drop in new-model quality persistently depressed the technology embodied in vehicles, and likely contributed to the slow recovery of expenditures.

In a Hotelling model with a climate coalition and a free-riding fringe, we compare demand-side and supply-side climate policies aimed at keeping CO$_2$ concentration below a ceiling equivalent to global warming of $2^\circ{\rm C}$. With the demand-side policy, the coalition caps its fuel demand. The corresponding allocation is intra-temporally distorted. With the supply-side policy, the coalition purchases deposits. The corresponding allocation is inter-temporally distorted and the fuel extraction path can be discontinuous. In an empirically calibrated economy, a medium-sized (the grand) coalition is stable with the demand-side (supply-side) policy. If the coalition acts strategically, the stable grand coalition implements first best.

We exploit a fixed rule constraining central bank credit provision in a regression discontinuity framework to analyse counterparties’ behavioural responses to the (non-)receipt of liquidity during a crisis. In spring 1847, the Bank of England suddenly started rationing credit to avoid violating its gold reserve requirement. We show that counterparties that suffered rejection from the Bank were more likely to fail. Conditional on survival, rationed counterparties learned from their experience and changed their behaviour during a subsequent panic in fall 1847: they came to the discount window more often, but submitted smaller requests and relied less on central bank liquidity overall.

Does democracy curb domestic political violence? To study this, we focus on the United Kingdom’s Representation of the People Act of 1867—which is a critical juncture in the history of democratisation. Constructing a novel borough (‘urban centre’) level dataset on social conflict events and economic performance around the 1868 elections (the first elections where newly enfranchised citizens could vote), we exploit arguably exogenous variation in enfranchisement intensity. We find a strong and robust peace-promoting effect of franchise extension and identify as a major channel of transmission the increase of the population’s political influence (voice) and local economic growth.

Over eight million jobs were lost in the Great Recession, creating widespread economic hardship. This paper documents a novel and robust empirical regularity, that highly concentrated local labor markets experienced larger employment declines during the Great Recession. I argue that pre-crisis concentration level was instrumental in modulating the transmission of negative shocks using a model with heterogeneous firms where recessions arise as an aggregate consequence of idiosyncratic firm shocks. My model predicts a larger decline in expected employment when the market has a higher initial concentration level. Relatively small firms are unable to absorb the large number of workers that get displaced when relatively big firms are hit by idiosyncratic shocks, as the absorption is limited by decreasing returns to scale (at the firm) and an upward-sloping labor supply (in the local labor market). I undertake a series of empirical tests to rule out alternative explanations, and show that large employment losses in concentrated labor markets are not driven by highly concentrated industry-locations being hit harder during the Great Recession, having thinner labor markets, having more large firms, or having higher firm leverage ratios.

We study a unique dataset with comprehensive coverage of daily prices in large multi-product retailers in Israel. Retail stores synchronise price changes around occasional ‘peak’ days when they reprice around 10% of their products. To assess aggregate implications of partial price synchronisation, we develop a new model in which multi-product firms face economies of scope in price adjustment, and synchronisation is endogenous. Synchronisation of price changes attenuates the average price response to monetary shocks, but only high degrees of synchronisation can substantially strengthen the real effects of monetary policy shocks. Our calibrated model generates real effects similar in magnitude to those in M. Golosov, and R.E. Lucas, Journal of Political Economy (2007), vol. 115, pp. 171–99.

A variety of external conditions may affect individual performance in high-stake cognitive assessments, with potentially lasting consequences on earnings and career. We provide the first causal evidence that the time of the day is an important condition affecting the performance at the moment of an evaluation. Exploiting a setting in which cognitive assessments are quasi-randomly assigned at a different time of day, we find that peak performance occurs in the early afternoon. The estimated time-of-day effects follow specific patterns consistent with the circadian rhythm, which suggests that biological factors are important determinants of performance even in economically meaningful settings.

This paper studies how coordinated work schedules across jobs contribute to the gender wage gap. Using US time diary data, we construct occupation-level measures of coordinated schedules. Higher coordination is associated with higher wages and a larger gender wage gap. Empirically, women with children allocate more time to household care and are penalised for missing work during peak hours. An equilibrium occupational choice model generates a gender wage gap of 8.9%; most of the gender wage gap is within occupations. If coordination is set to the value of healthcare support across all occupations, the within-occupation gender gap halves.

We argue that the recent increases in market concentration and markups are partly due to an ‘innovation feedback effect’ of globalisation. Lower trade costs increase innovation incentives for global firms. As the winners of the ensuing innovation race increase their technological advantage, concentration and markups rise. We develop an endogenous growth model capturing this effect and calibrate it to US manufacturing data. We find that the increase in trade between 1989 and 2007 raised the aggregate markup by 3.5 percentage points. This is entirely due to innovation: without the innovation response, markups would have fallen by 4 percentage points.

We study a multi-unit auction model in which bidders are privately informed about the maximum number of units they are willing to trade (which we refer to as 'capacity'). No matter how big or small, private information on capacities changes the nature of the equilibrium as compared to when private information is on costs (or valuations). Also, the uniform-price and discriminatory auctions are not revenue equivalent, in contrast to when costs are independently drawn. In particular, with independently drawn capacities (and possibly costs), the discriminatory format reduces payments to firms relative to the uniform-price format. Our analysis is motivated by the performance of future electricity markets in which renewable energies will be predominant, but the set-up also applies to a variety of contexts (from central bank liquidity auctions to emissions trading). This project has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant Agreement No. 772331). Support of the Regional Government of Madrid through Grants S2015/HUM-3491 and H2019/HUM-5859 is also acknowledged.

Despite the relatively uncontested importance of promoting school attendance in the policy arena, little evidence exists on the causal effect of school absence on long-run outcomes. We address this question by combining historical and administrative records for cohorts of Swedish individuals born in the 1930s. We find that elementary school absence significantly reduces contemporaneous academic performance, final educational attainment and labour income throughout the life cycle. The findings are consistent with a dynamic model of human capital formation, whereby absence causes small immediate learning losses, which cumulate to larger human capital losses over time and lead to worse labour market performance.

A tractable dynamic model of international climate policies is analysed. The choice of bargaining game influences participation levels, emission quotas and technology investment levels. I derive several predictions that are arguably consistent with the differences between the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and the 2015 Paris Agreement—including the transitioning from the former to the latter.

The New Poor Law reform of 1834 induced dramatic and heterogeneous reductions in welfare spending across English and Welsh counties. Using the reform in a difference-in-differences instrumental variables strategy, we document a robust negative relationship between the generosity of welfare provision and criminal activity. Results are driven by non-violent property crimes and are stronger during months of seasonal agricultural unemployment, highlighting the particularly criminogenic combination of welfare cuts and precarious work opportunities for the economically vulnerable.

We study long-term and intergenerational effects of the 1970s Indonesian school construction program. Exploiting variation across birth cohorts and districts in the number of schools built suggests that 43 years later men are more likely to work formally, outside agriculture, and migrate, and that men and women have better marriage market outcomes. Households with exposed women have higher living standards and pay more taxes. The mother's program exposure leads to increased schooling for her children, with larger effects in secondary and tertiary education. Cost-benefit analyses indicate that school construction leads to higher tax revenues and improved living standards, offsetting construction costs within 18–54 years.

We study how countries’ financial structure affects their transition to low-carbon growth. Using global industry-level data, we document that carbon-intensive industries reduce emissions faster in economies with deeper stock markets. The main channel underpinning this stylised fact is that stock markets facilitate green innovation in carbon-intensive sectors, resulting in lower carbon emissions per unit of output. More tentative evidence indicates that stock markets also help to reallocate investment towards more energy-efficient sectors. Cross-border spillovers are limited: less than 5% of these industry-level reductions in domestic emissions are offset by carbon embedded in imports. A firm-level analysis of an exogenous shock to the cost of equity in Belgium confirms our findings.

This paper studies the relationship between pre-college skills and gender differences in STEM majors. I use longitudinal data to estimate a generalised Roy model of initial major choices and subsequent graduation outcomes. I recover students’ latent math ability, non-cognitive skills and math self-efficacy. High–math-ability women have lower math self-efficacy than men. Mathematical ability and self-efficacy shape the likelihood of STEM enrolment. A lack of math self-efficacy drives women’s drop out from STEM majors. I find large returns to STEM enrolment for high–math-ability women. Well-focused math self-efficacy interventions could improve women’s STEM graduation rates and labour market outcomes.

How should independent central banks react if pressured by fiscal policymakers? We contrast the implications of two monetary frameworks: one, where the central bank follows a standard rule aiming exclusively at price stability against the other, where monetary policy additionally leans against fiscal influence. The latter rule improves economic outcomes by providing appropriate incentives to the fiscal authority. More importantly, the additional fiscal conditionality can enhance the credibility of the central bank to achieve price stability. We emphasise how the level and structure of government debt emerge as key factors affecting the credibility of monetary policy with fiscal conditionality.

Employing day-to-day wind conditions as an identification strategy, we explore the consequences of the 420 US drone strikes in Pakistan between 2006 and 2016. Results suggest that drone strikes encourage terrorism over the upcoming days and weeks, causing up to 19% of all terror attacks with more than 3,000 terror deaths in Pakistan during that period. Studying a leading Pakistani newspaper, we identify a polarised response to drone strikes as negative emotions and anger, but also positive emotions, in drone-related articles increase. Finally, anti-US protests and online searches exhibiting radical Islamist concepts increase as a consequence of drone strikes.

Economic modernisation is widely seen as a path to democracy, but the technological progress that drives modernisation also provides rulers with new means of repression. We collect data on the international diffusion of 29 repressive military technologies, and demonstrate that such technologies spread faster from Western Europe and the United States than economic development. Moreover, in a panel of all independent countries in the period 1820–2010, we show that the rapid diffusion of repressive technologies has impeded democratisation around the world, by allowing autocratic rulers to suppress popular resistance against their regimes.

We examine the educative role played by parents in social norm transmission. Using a field experiment, we study whether parents enforce and comply more with norms when their children are present compared to when they are not. We compare similar parents when or after they drop off or pick up their children at school. We find that parents accompanying children, in contrast to parents alone, are more likely to punish norm violators and to provide help to strangers when there is no violation. They also tend to substitute more direct punishment with withholding help as a means of indirect punishment.

We study assortative mating of Norwegian parents over five decades and its consequences for offspring outcomes. Parents are characterised by the earnings decile of their parents (the offspring's grandparents) as an indicator of social class. While assortative mating has remained stable across decades, parenthood has become more skewed toward the higher classes. Examining the influence on offspring education and employment, we find that the marginal effect of one parent's class is smaller the higher is the class of the other. Overall, mating trends have contributed to slight improvements in average education and employment and reduced inequality in the offspring generation.

The relationship between market participation and moral values is the object of a long-lasting debate in economics, yet field evidence is mainly based on cross-cultural studies. We conduct rule-breaking experiments in 13 villages across Greenland (N = 543), where stark contrasts in market participation within villages allow us to examine the relationship between market participation and moral decision-making, holding village-level factors constant. First, we document a robust positive association between market participation and moral behaviour towards anonymous others. Second, market-integrated participants display universalism in moral decision-making, whereas non-market participants make more moral decisions towards co-villagers. A battery of robustness tests confirms that the behavioural differences between market and non-market participants are not driven by socioeconomic variables, childhood background, cultural identities, kinship structure, global connectedness and exposure to religious and political institutions.

National financial aid programs for disadvantaged students cover a significant fraction of college students and represent a non-negligible component of the public budget. These programs often have relatively weak academic requirements for renewal, potentially leading to moral hazard and efficiency losses. Using a reform in the Spanish need-based grant program in higher education, this paper tests the causal effect of receiving the same amount of grant under different intensities of academic requirements on student performance, degree completion, and student dropout. I use administrative micro-data on the universe of applicants to the grant in a large university. Exploiting sharp discontinuities in the grant eligibility formula, I find strong positive effects of being eligible for a grant on student performance when combined with demanding academic requirements, while there are no effects on student dropout. Students improve their final exam attendance rate, their average GPA in final exams, and their probability of completing the degree. They also reduce the fraction of subjects that they have to retake. The grant has no effects on student performance, degree completion, and student dropout when academic requirements are comparable to those set out by national need-based student aid programs around the world. These results suggest that academic requirements in the context of higher education financial aid can be an effective tool to help overcome moral hazard concerns and improve aid effectiveness.

There is substantial uncertainty about the impact of quantitative easing on market liquidity. Identifying the impact is particularly challenging due to the potential for reverse causality, because liquidity considerations might affect quantitative easing purchases. We address this challenge by studying the Bank of England’s 2016–7 Corporate Bond Purchase Scheme. In particular, we use granular offer-level data from the Corporate Bond Purchase Scheme auctions to construct proxy measures for the Bank of England's demand for bonds and auction participants’ supply of bonds, allowing us to control for any reverse causality from liquidity to purchases. We find that Corporate Bond Purchase Scheme purchases improved the liquidity of purchased bonds.

We explore the impact of wage offers on job applications, testing implications of the directed search model and trying to distinguish it from random search. We use a field experiment conducted on a Chinese job board, with real jobs for which we randomly vary the wage offers across three ranges. We find that higher wage offers raise application rates overall, which is consistent with directed search, but can also arise with random search. We also find that higher wage offers raise application rates for job seekers with wage offers above reservation wages and that—among the latter—the increase in application rates is stronger for those with higher reservation wages. The latter two types of evidence are consistent with directed search, but not random search. Hence, our evidence lends support to directed search models.

The emergence of cities in specific locations depends on both geographical features (such as elevation and proximity to rivers) and institutional factors (such as centrality within an administrative region). In this paper, we analyse the importance of these factors at different levels of the urban hierarchy. To do so, we exploit a unique data set on the locations of cities of different status in imperial China from 221 BCE to 1911 CE, a geographically diverse empire with a long history of centralised rule. Developing a stylised theoretical model, we combine econometrics with machine learning techniques. Our results suggest that the higher a city is in the urban hierarchy, the less important are local geographical features compared to institutional factors. At the lower end of the scale, market towns without government responsibilities are most strongly shaped by geographical characteristics. We also find evidence that many cities of political importance in imperial times still enjoy a special status nowadays, underlining the modern relevance of these historical factors.

We study residential lease payments during the COVID-19 pandemic. A survey of Israeli renters shows that nearly one in eight did not pay full rent during the first lockdown in March–April 2020. These households held back two-thirds of their contractually due rent on average. Financially fragile households with large income cuts withheld a greater share. Both formal and relational aspects of the landlord-tenant relationship affected payments: tenants paid more of their rent if their leases included formal provisions against non-payment, and less if they had strong relationships with their landlords. We use bargaining and relational contract theories to explain our findings.

By matching data on land transactions in China’s primary land market with detailed curricula vitae of board directors in publicly listed firms, we identify a pattern of ‘revolving-door’ exchanges between local officials and firms. The officials discounted the price of land that they sold to the said firms, and were subsequently rewarded with board appointments upon retirement. Specifically, these ‘client officials’ are three times as likely to be recruited by the ‘patron firms’ as board directors and enjoy a salary that is 23% higher, and 81% more company shares by comparison with directors who did not help firms to secure cheap land deals. All of these, however, are conditional on patron firms being able to receive a price discount, which averaged 19.4% when they purchased them in normal times. However, when client officials were constrained from providing a price discount during a surprise audit, the likelihood of client officials recruited as board directors was halved, with the price discount and extra compensation received by the patrons and clients, respectively, vanishing altogether. By providing evidence of the reciprocal benefits received by both parties, we demonstrate that the revolving door is used as a ‘payment’ rather than a ‘connection’ device in the Chinese context.

This paper analyses the causal effect of changes in public pensions on household spending. The identification exploits the introduction of a new welfare system in Spain during the 1980s and 1990s, and uses a novel narrative series of legislated pension changes as an instrument for pension income. Despite public pensions having a limited impact in the aggregate, I find a high, though less than unity, marginal propensity to consume for pensioners due to permanent income shocks at the household level. Moreover, large spending responses for pensioners with the highest income and wealth mean that liquidity considerations can be disregarded as a key source of marginal propensity to consume heterogeneity. Instead, a strong precautionary savings motive can explain the excess smoothness of consumption, and costly adjustments explain the skewed spending response for durables.

This paper studies how formal financial access affects network-based financial arrangements. We use a field experiment that granted access to a savings account to a random subset of households in 19 Nepalese villages. Exploiting a unique panel dataset that follows all bilateral informal financial transactions before and after the intervention, we show that households that were offered access to an account increased their loans and total transfers to others, independent of the treatment status of the receiver. The increase seemed to be driven by treatment households with more assets and greater financial inclusion at baseline.

This paper evaluates large-scale hydroelectric dams built in the United States during the twentieth century. Combining panel event-study designs and synthetic control methods, two results stand out. First, dams constructed pre-1950 spurred short-run local growth, in large part thanks to a ‘cheap-local-power advantage’, and resulted in remarkable long-run growth, more than doubling local population density after 50 years. Second, dams constructed post-1950 had only modest effects on growth. The first result indicates agglomerative impacts on local economic activity. The second result suggests that the cheap-local-power advantage created by hydropower attenuated after 1950, probably because of such innovations as high-tension transmission lines.

This paper considers a two-sector real business cycle model augmented with firm heterogeneity and firm dynamics, and studies the steady state and dynamic properties of the model in response to a decline in the relative price of investment. It shows that both firm heterogeneity and entry play a crucial role in the decline in the labour share and the increase in capital intensity observed in the US economy. Using ORBIS firm-level data of the US economy, the paper finds robust evidence consistent with the mechanisms described in the model.

This paper examines the effect of campaign appearances in the context of the one-sided nationwide tour by William J. Bryan, the Democratic US presidential candidate in 1896. During this electoral campaign, Bryan undertook an unprecedented whistle-stop train tour, while the Republican candidate followed a front-porch campaign. To identify the causal effect of campaign speeches, we exploit several estimation strategies, including a within-county difference-in-differences design and a neighbour-pair fixed effect estimator. We find that campaign visits by Bryan increased his vote share by about one percentage point on average. This increase likely stems from the persuasion of previously non-aligned industrial workers.

Marriage matching markets typically involve heterogenous agents participating in a dynamic, non-stationary environment. These features pose a considerable modelling challenge. In this paper, we develop a new parametric model of dynamic marriage that allows for market non-stationarity using a system of transitionary equilibria. We propose a method to identify and parametrically estimate the model by representing the model equilibrium with a fixed-point mapping. We apply our model to investigate how China’s one-child policy has affected the marriage distribution through its effect on the population and sex ratios.

We develop a model of the market for knowledge workers in which talent is discovered on the job. In the model, asymmetric information and firm-specific human capital combine to generate several predictions relating firm heterogeneity to talent discovery and poaching. We show that high-quality (i.e., large and high-productivity) firms are more likely to become talent poachers, while lower-quality firms are more likely to invest in talent discovery. Job-to-job flows are adversely selected, which implies that internally promoted managers are more productive than those who are externally promoted. The model generates several additional predictions linking firm heterogeneity to the distribution of managerial talent, productivity, compensation and promotions.

Carbon prices are the most cost-effective instrument to reduce CO$_2$ emissions, but there is strong political opposition to raising them to the efficient level. Therefore, additional efforts of consumers, firms and local governments are required. We study how different regulatory regimes affect moral behaviour and show that a carbon tax complements voluntary efforts to reduce emissions, while cap and trade discourages them. The opportunity to invest in offsets increases welfare, while the option to buy and delete emission rights induces more emissions and reduces welfare. Furthermore, cap and trade shifts the burden of adjustment to poor consumers and has dysfunctional incentive effects.

English Abstract: We develop a model of the politics of state capacity building undertaken by incumbent parties that have a comparative advantage in clientelism rather than in public goods provision. The model predicts that, when challenged by opponents, clientelistic incumbents have the incentive to prevent investments in state capacity. We provide empirical support for the model’s implications by studying policy decisions by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) that affected local state capacity across Mexican municipalities and over time. Our difference-in-differences and instrumental variable identification strategies exploit a national shock that threatened the Mexican government’s hegemony in the early 1960s. The intensity of this shock, which varied across municipalities, was partly explained by severe droughts that occurred during the 1950s. Spanish Abstract: Desarrollamos un modelo teorico sobre los incentivos politicos para la construccion de capacidades estatales por parte de gobernantes cuya ventaja comparativa es el clientelismo y no la provision de bienes publicos. El modelo predice que, cuando enfrentan competencia de opositores, los gobernantes clientelistas tienen el incentivo a bloquear las inversiones en capacidad estatal. Presentamos evidencia empirica que apoya estas implicaciones estudiando decisiones del Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) que afectaron la capacidad estatal a traves de los municipios mexicanos y a lo largo del tiempo. Nuestras estrategias de diferencias en diferencias y variables instrumentales aprovechan un choque nacional que amenazo la hegemonia del gobierno mexicano al comienzo de la decada de 1960. La intensidad de este choque en distintos municipios estuvo en parte explicada por la sequias severas que ocurrieron en los anos 50.

We develop a co-residence model between young adults and the elderly as an application of the Shapley–Shubik–Becker bilateral matching framework. This model captures competition between adult children and between parents and parents-in-law. Using microdata from China, we estimate our model by using a network simulation method to fill in partially unobservable marriage links. We find that our model explains the child-side and parent-side competitions observed in the data better than two alternative multinomial logit models with only one-sided competition. In addition, counterfactual experiments quantify the effects of changes in the one-child policy and housing prices on intergenerational co-residence.

This paper provides evidence of match effects in the teacher labour market by considering how teacher effectiveness varies by classroom composition. We combine random assignment of teachers with rich measures of teaching practices based on a popular teacher-evaluation protocol to overcome endogeneity challenges. We find significant complementarities between teaching practice and classroom composition for maths achievement. We use these estimates to simulate the effects of reallocating classrooms among teachers within schools and find substantial differences between counterfactual and actual teacher effectiveness rankings. These findings support the importance of classroom composition for key teacher-related policies, including teacher allocations, accountability and training.

Does political selection matter for policy in representative governments? I use administrative data on local politicians in Finland and exploit exogenous variation generated by close elections to show that electing more high-income, incumbent and competent politicians (who earn more than observably similar politicians) improves fiscal sustainability outcomes, but does not decrease the size of the public sector. I also provide suggestive evidence that electing more university-educated local councillors leads to more public spending without adverse effects on fiscal sustainability. I reconcile these findings with survey data on candidate ideology and demonstrate that different qualities are differentially associated with economic ideology.

The delayed response of law enforcement to calls for service has become a hot button issue when evaluating police department performance. While it is often assumed that faster response times could play an important role in quelling potentially violent incidents, there is no empirical evidence to support this claim. In this paper, we measure the effect of police response time on the likelihood that an incident will result in an injury. To overcome the endogeneity of more severe calls being assigned higher priority, which requires a faster response, we take several steps. First, we focus on the subset of calls for service categorized as ‘Major Disturbance—Violence’ that all receive the same priority level. Second, we instrument for police response time with the number of vehicles within a 2.5-mile radius of the incident at the time it is received by the call center. When controlling for beat, month, and time-of-day fixed effects, this instrumenting strategy allows us to take advantage of the geographical constraints faced by a dispatcher when assigning officers to an incident. In contrast to the OLS estimates, our two-stage least squares analysis establishes a strong causal relationship whereby increasing response time increases the likelihood that an incident results in an injury. The effect is concentrated among female victims, suggesting that faster response time could potentially play an important role in reducing injuries related to domestic violence.

We study the implications of transparency policies on decentralised public good provision by the non-profit sector. We present a model where imperfect monitoring of the use of funds interacts with the competitive structure of the non-profit sector under alternative informational regimes. Increasing transparency regarding the use of funds may have ambiguous effects on total public good provision and on donors’ welfare. On the one hand, transparency encourages all non-profit firms to engage more actively in curbing fund diversion. On the other hand, it tilts the playing field against non-profits facing higher monitoring costs, pressing them to give up on their missions. This effect on the extensive margin implies that transparency policies lead to a reduction in the diversity of social missions addressed by the non-profit sector. We show that the negative impact of transparency on social mission variety and on donors’ welfare is highest for intermediate levels of asymmetry in monitoring costs.

We investigate how culture affects gender differences in willingness to compete in a large pre-registered experiment using an epidemiological approach. Our sample of 1,943 Norwegians with parents born in 59 different countries shows a smaller gender gap in willingness to compete among individuals of more gender-equal ancestries. The difference is driven by women with parents from more gender-equal countries wanting to compete more and men with the same ancestry wanting to compete less. The results are robust to controlling for a large set of factors at the individual, parental and ancestral country levels, indicating that gendered culture shapes competitive preferences.

We use detailed data from Indonesian cities to study how variation in density within urban areas affects social capital. For identification, we instrument density with soil characteristics, and control for community averages of observed characteristics. Under plausible assumptions, these controls address sorting on observables and unobservables. We find that lower density increases trust in neighbours and community participation. We also find that lower density is associated with reduced interethnic tolerance, but this relationship is explained by sorting. Heterogeneity analysis suggests that crime in dense areas undermines community trust and participation, intensifying the negative impact of density.

Cities are centres of the consumption industries—establishments offering nightlife, food, recreation and retail. However, the city’s associated consumer value is inseparable from its geography because residents must travel to consume. By exploiting both the staggered entry across cities and the precise geographic boundary of Uber services for credible identification, we show that the introduction of ride-share technology into a city caused large and significant growth in the consumption industries. We provide evidence that the results are driven by an increase in consumer mobility, due to Uber causing a reduction in the economic cost of travel.