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This paper introduces three quantitative indicators to conduct research for characterizing Northeast China cold vortex persistence activity: cold vortex persistence, generalized "cold vortex," and cold vortex precipitation. As discussed in the first part of paper, a hindcast is performed by multiple regressions using Northeast China precipitation from 2012 to 2014 combination with the previous winter 144 air-sea system factors. The results show that the mentioned three cold vortex index series can reflect the spatial and temporal distributions of observational precipitation in 2012–2014 and obtain results. The cold vortex factors are then added to the Forecast System on Dynamical and Analogy Skills (FODAS) to carry out dynamic statistical hindcast of precipitation in Northeast China from 2003 to 2012. Based on the characteristics and significance of each index, precipitation hindcast is carried out for Northeast China in May, June, July, August, May–June, and July–August. It turns out that the Northeast Cold Vortex Index Series, as defined in this paper, can make positive corrections to the FODAS forecast system, and most of the index correction results are higher than the system's own correction value. This study provides quantitative index products and supplies a solid technical foundation and support for monthly precipitation forecast in Northeast China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the simulation performance of the 37 coupled models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) with respect to the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the Indo-Pacific warm pool and North Pacific Ocean dipole (IPOD) and also the interrelationships between them. The results show that the majority of the models are unable to accurately simulate the interannual variability and long-term trends of the EASM, and their simulations of the temporal and spatial variations of the IPOD are also limited. Further analysis showed that the correlation coefficients between the simulated and observed EASM index (EASMI) is proportional to those between the simulated and observed IPOD index (IPODI); that is, if the models have skills to simulate one of them then they will likely generate good simulations of another. Based on the above relationship, this paper proposes a conditional multi-model ensemble method (CMME) that eliminates those models without capability to simulate the IPOD and EASM when calculating the multi-model ensemble (MME). The analysis shows that, compared with the MME, this CMME method can significantly improve the simulations of the spatial and temporal variations of both the IPOD and EASM as well as their interrelationship, suggesting the potential for the CMME approach to be used in place of the MME method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long instrumental records of meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation are very useful for studying regional climate in the past, present, and future. They can also be useful for understanding the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation processes on the regional climate. This paper investigates the monthly, winter, and annual temperature time series obtained from the instrumental records in Zagreb, Croatia, for the period 1864-2010. Using wavelet analysis, the dominant modes of variability in these temperature series are identified, and the time intervals over which these modes may persist are delineated. The results reveal that all three temperature records exhibit low-frequency variability with a dominant periodicity at around 7.7 years. The 7.7-year cycle has also been observed in the temperature data recorded at several other stations in Europe, especially in Northern and Western Europe, and may be linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and/or solar/geomagnetic activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the linkage between large-scale atmospheric circulation and monthly precipitation during November to April over Iran. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is used to set up the statistical linkage between the 850 hPa geopotential height large-scale circulation and monthly precipitation over Iran for the period 1968–2010. The monthly precipitation dataset for 50 synoptic stations distributed in different climate regions of Iran is considered as the response variable in the CCA. The monthly geopotential height reanalysis dataset over an area between 10° N and 60° N and from 20° E to 80° E is utilized as the explanatory variable in the CCA. Principal component analysis (PCA) as a pre-filter is used for data reduction for both explanatory and response variables before applying CCA. The optimal number of principal components and canonical variables to be retained in the CCA equations is determined using the highest average cross-validated Kendall's tau value. The 850 hPa geopotential height pattern over the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia, and Persian Gulf is found to be the major pattern related to Iranian monthly precipitation. The Pearson correlation between the area averaged of the observed and predicted precipitation over the study area for Jan, Feb, March, April, November, and December months are statistically significant at the 5% significance level and are 0.78, 0.80, 0.82, 0.74, 0.79, and 0.61, respectively. The relative operating characteristic (ROC) indicates that the highest scores for the above- and below-normal precipitation categories are, respectively, for February and April and the lowest scores found for December. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we quantify the changes in precipitation distribution in south-western Poland between the periods 1891-1930 and 1981-2010. The average monthly precipitation totals available for 368 and 245 stations, respectively, are spatially interpolated and processed to calculate maps of differences and pluvial continentality indices for both periods. The maps are analysed against changes in atmospheric circulation and take into account the potential role of the mountain barrier of the Sudetes. The main findings are (1) winter totals generally increased in conjunction with a higher frequency of zonal circulation; it is more pronounced in the upper parts of the Sudetes due to orographic effects; (2) a decreased frequency of zonal circulation together with an increased frequency of southern flows has likely led to the reduction of precipitation in spring and autumn. These changes have led to a significant modification of the region's pluvial regime, mostly by decreasing continentality features (especially in the Sudetes and the western lowlands). In addition, the strong sheltering influence of the mountain barrier is observed, driving the preservation or even the enhancement of the continental pluvial characteristics in the north-eastern to eastern foregrounds of the Sudetes. This leads to the conclusion that in areas where long-term observed trends or future projections of precipitation are ambiguous, there may occur significant modifications in regional characteristics, especially as a result of changes in atmospheric circulation modified by local orography. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The parameterization of physical processes is one of the critical elements to properly simulate the regional climate over eastern China. It is essential to conduct detailed analyses on the effect of physical parameterization schemes on regional climate simulation, to provide more reliable regional climate change information. In this paper, we evaluate the 25-year (1983-2007) summer monsoon climate characteristics of precipitation and surface air temperature by using the regional spectral model (RSM) with different physical schemes. The ensemble results using the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method are also assessed. The result shows that the RSM model has the capacity to reproduce the spatial patterns, the variations, and the temporal tendency of surface air temperature and precipitation over eastern China. And it tends to predict better climatology characteristics over the Yangtze River basin and the South China. The impact of different physical schemes on RSM simulations is also investigated. Generally, the CLD3 cloud water prediction scheme tends to produce larger precipitation because of its overestimation of the low-level moisture. The systematic biases derived from the KF2 cumulus scheme are larger than those from the RAS scheme. The scale-selective bias correction (SSBC) method improves the simulation of the temporal and spatial characteristics of surface air temperature and precipitation and advances the circulation simulation capacity. The REA ensemble results show significant improvement in simulating temperature and precipitation distribution, which have much higher correlation coefficient and lower root mean square error. The REA result of selected experiments is better than that of nonselected experiments, indicating the necessity of choosing better ensemble samples for ensemble. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the daily precipitation data measured at 58 meteorological stations were used, and the spatial and temporal variability of daily precipitation and precipitation extrema in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) during 1958-2007 was investigated using the indicator of discrete wavelet entropy; then, the urbanization effects were further analyzed. Results indicate that the daily precipitation variability in YRD, especially in the mid YRD with highly urbanized city clusters, is determined by the comprehensive impacts of atmospheric circulation, urbanizations, and the Taihu Lake. Compared with the results in 1958-1985, the variability of daily precipitation and precipitation extrema becomes more complex in 1986-2007, and daily precipitation variability is more complex in the mid YRD relative to the north and south. The precipitation extrema with bigger magnitudes show more complex variability. Urbanizations cause more complexity and fluctuations of daily precipitation in the mid YRD in 1986-2007, reflecting more uncertainty of daily precipitation variability, while the urbanization effects vary with regions and precipitation magnitudes. The variability of precipitation extrema with maximum values is mainly determined by natural atmospheric circulation but has little relationship with urbanizations; however, the variability of those precipitation extrema with general values is determined by both urbanizations and the Taihu Lake in YRD over the last three decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A 117 year series of hourly precipitation data from Kraków, South Poland and the Niedźwiedź classification of synoptic weather types were the basis of a detailed study of diurnal precipitation variation and atmospheric circulation types. The analysis of the relationship between precipitation and circulation types was restricted to the warm half of the year (May–October). During this period precipitation ispredominantly liquid. This paper discusses the role of theCarpathian orographic barrier in the development of the 24 hour precipitation pattern. The diurnal cycle of precipitation shows a stronger relationship with the direction of air mass advection than with pressure system type. Circulation types linked with cold and moist air mass advection cause a more uniform precipitation variation. Conversely, diurnal precipitation patterns in circulation types bringing continental Polar air are affected to a greater extent by thermal than dynamic factors. This influence is manifest by a greater amplitude of the diurnal cycle of precipitation frequency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to determine the influence of circulation factors on precipitation in Bulgaria. The study succeeds investigation on the influence of circulation factors on air temperatures in Bulgaria, as the focus here is directed toward precipitation amounts. Circulation factors are represented through two circulation indices, showing west-east or south-north transport of air masses over Bulgaria and four teleconnection indices (patterns)-North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic, East Atlantic/Western Russia, and Scandinavian. Omega values at 700-hPa level show vertical motions in the atmosphere. Annual precipitation trends are mixed and not statistically significant. A significant decrease of precipitation in Bulgaria is observed in November due to the strengthening of the eastward transport of air masses (strengthening of EA teleconnection pattern) and anticyclonal weather (increase of descending motions in the atmosphere). There is also a precipitation decrease in May and June due to the growing influence of the Azores High. An increase of precipitation happens in September. All this leads to a redistribution of annual precipitation course, but annual precipitation amounts remain the same. However, this redistribution has a negative impact on agriculture and winter ski tourism. Zonal circulation has a larger influence on precipitation in Bulgaria compared to meridional. Eastward transport throughout the year leads to lower than the normal precipitation, and vice versa. With regard to the four teleconnection patterns, winter precipitation in Bulgaria is determined mainly by EA/WR teleconnection pattern, spring and autumn by EA teleconnection pattern, and summer by SCAND teleconnection pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This contribution provides the basics of the climatology of the Polish Tatra Mountains in a nutshell, with particular reference to intense precipitation and its relation to atmospheric circulation. Variability of various precipitation characteristics, including selected indices of intense precipitation in Zakopane and at Kasprowy Wierch, is illustrated in this paper. None of the trends in these characteristics and indices calculated for the entire time interval exhibit a statistical significance, but short-time fluctuations are evident. The occurrence of intense precipitation in the Tatra Mountains is strongly related to three circulation types. These situations (Nc, NEc, Bc) are associated with cyclones following track Vb after van Bebber. In addition to changing frequencies of circulation, this study also reveals an increase in the frequency of the circulation types associated with extreme precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a novel statistical downscaling method based on a non-linear classification technique known as self-organizing maps (SOMs) and has therefore been named SOM-SD. The relationship between large-scale atmospheric circulation and local-scale surface variable was constructed in a relatively simple and transparent manner. For a specific atmospheric state, an ensemble of possible values was generated for the predictand following the Monte Carlo method. Such a stochastic simulation is essential to explore the uncertainties of climate change in the future through a series of random re-sampling experiments. The novel downscaling method was evaluated by downscaling daily precipitation over Southeast Australia. The large-scale predictors were extracted from the daily NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data, while the predictand was high-resolution gridded daily observed precipitation (1958-2008) from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The results showed that the method works reasonably well across a variety of climatic zones in the study area. Overall, there was no particular zone that stands out as a climatic entity where the downscaling skill in reproducing all statistical indices was consistently lower or higher across seasons than the other zones. The method displayed a high skill in reproducing not only the climatologic statistical properties of the observed precipitation, but also the characteristics of the extreme precipitation events. Furthermore, the model was able to reproduce, to a certain extent, the inter-annual variability of precipitation characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper discusses the impact of atmospheric circulation on the occurrence of various types of precipitation. A 146-year-long precipitation record from Kraków spanning the period 1863-2008 was used alongside a calendar prepared by Niedźwiedź (, ) describing circulation types covering the period 1873-2008 and air masses and atmospheric fronts covering the period 1951-2008 in southern Poland. The influence of atmospheric circulation on precipitation was measured using the frequency, conditional probability and average daily totals of precipitation. Circulation types, air masses and atmospheric fronts exerted influences on precipitation as a result of the seasonal variations of the thermal and moisture properties of air masses. The impact is best expressed by circulation types as these combine the aspect of cyclonicity/anticyclonicity with that of the direction of air advection, the two elements which determine the physical properties of the air. On average, liquid precipitation prevailed in all circulation types, except the Ea type in which snowfall dominated over liquid precipitation. Depending on the season, one of the three types of circulation, Wa, Wc and Bc, were shown to coincide with the greatest amount of liquid and thunderstorm precipitation. There was no single dominant circulation type for mixed precipitation or snowfall. In summer, the circulation types Nc, NEc, Cc and Bc were the most favourable to liquid and thunderstorm precipitation in terms of both probability and totals. In winter, snowfall was the most favoured by the Ec type. Frontal precipitation was twice as likely to occur as air mass precipitation, with the exception of snowfall which was predominantly an air mass type of precipitation in terms of probability, but its greatest totals were recorded on atmospheric fronts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a method for grouping weather types that occur over an area, which combines meteorological parameters, reflecting air mass characteristics at the surface, with synoptic conditions prevailing over an area. Five quantitative meteorological parameters are used in the procedure: temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind velocity and sunshine duration. In addition, two qualitative variables related to the prevailing circulation type and whether it is cyclonic or anticyclonic are also included. The study period is 43 years (1958–2000) and is restricted to the cold and wet sub-period of the year, December–March. Weather types are defined using a relatively new method of cluster analysis, two-step cluster analysis, which allows the simultaneous use of both quantitative and qualitative variables. The aim of the present study is to distinguish primary weather patterns so that the investigation into the relationship between weather patterns and circulation types will be more effective. For Athens, six weather types are created, whereas for Thessaloniki five are produced. For both stations, only two weather types are related to anticyclonic situations. The majority of the identified weather types correspond to a distinctive and well-defined synoptic situation. Each weather type differs from the others, not only in terms of the circulation conditions referring to it, but also with reference to meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation. The results of the evaluation of the aforementioned procedure are considered to be highly satisfactory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How strong is the resemblance between two states of the atmosphere leading to the same outcome? In the following pages this question was addressed by studying the resemblance of the surface pressure fields, obtained by NCEP reanalyses, corresponding to “intense” precipitation events over 5 Italian climatic areas. Such “intense” precipitation events were selected by means of 45 daily precipitation records covering the period from 1951 to 2000. Two pressure patterns that resemble one another are termed soft-analogues in this paper. The mathematical measures used to assess the difference between two pressure patterns were: the root-mean-square difference, the correlation, and the S1 score. The comparison outcomes were categorized into classes according to the previous measures. Once a couple of the pressure patterns were found to be good soft-analogues (that was a rare occurrence), these pressure patterns were compared with all pressure patterns excluded by the initial selection being not associated with intense precipitation events. The few soft-analogues associated with “intense” precipitation events were found to be also soft-analogue to several, and sometimes a great deal of, pressure patterns not associated with the selected “intense” precipitation events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent dry years (combined dry winter and summer months) within the UK (2005 and 2006) have enhanced concerns relating to long term water resources and future water provision in large conurbations. This paper examines the mechanisms responsible for precipitation variability for five different areas in Edinburgh (precipitation regions) using composite historic precipitation records for the period 1861–2005. Trend analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) were undertaken to examine precipitation variability over time and space. Annual correlation co-efficients were derived for relationships between precipitation areas, atmospheric–oceanographic variations and geographic parameters. Stepwise regression models were constructed to specify annual precipitation, through atmospheric variations, for each of the precipitation areas. Significant downward trends in precipitation ( p < 0.05) were noted in two out of the five precipitation areas, with one principal component representing precipitation variability over Edinburgh and the Pentland Hills. Precipitation variability is best explained by fluctuations in pressure, altitude and proximity to coast. Precipitation trends cannot be explained by changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a widely held view that the Pampa region (PR) dry and wet periods are predominantly a consecuence of the El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) phenomenom. The current paper focuses on non-ENSO rainfall anomalies for the period 1948–2000, the more recent of which have had catastrophic consequences throughout the region. We analyze horizontal water vapor transport, pressure and circulation anomalies occurring in Southern South America (SSA) during this type of event. Positive and negative (wet and dry) extreme events during the rainy and dry seasons in the region were registered. Based on NCEP reanalysis data it was established that under rainfall deficit, anomalies of similar intensity occurred simultaneously in the PR and in central Chile, whereas under excess rainfall the anomalies were mostly confined to the PR. The existence of a cyclone-anticyclone pair in the anomalous circulation pattern over mid latitudes of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and straddling the southern portion of the continent maintains an intense and extense meridional circulation over the continental plains, which leads to the abnormal values in moisture transport and rainfall rate. The atmospheric water balance equation calculated for the PR indicates that anomalous water vapor is carried in from the continental equatorial region and from the subtropical Atlantic, its magnitude varying in accordance with the season and the sign of the anomaly. Furthermore, evidence of the important role of transient terms corroborates their contribution to the anomalous total moisture flux divergence under rainfall deficit during the dry season. The mean sea-level pressure anomaly fields of the extreme cases were further examined by principal component analysis to discern those circulation features directly linked to rainfall deviations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses various reports published within the issue, including one by Anagnostopoulou and colleagues on atmospheric circulation classification, one by Esteban and colleagues on the circulation benefits in precipitation mapping, and one by Burlando on surface wind classification.

Precipitation is considered one of the most important forcing data in scientific investigations involving agriculture, water management, and climate variability. Knowledge of precipitation variation during rainy seasons is the key to the understanding of the precipitation variability under the effect of climate change. This study evaluated some rainy season features (e.g., onset, retreat, and rainy-season precipitation) over the Yellow River basin (YRB), China, and the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The multi-scale moving t-test was applied to capture the onset and retreat of rainy season. The possible linkage between ENSO-induced precipitation and monsoon and atmospheric circulation was also explored. From the analysis, four conclusions can be drawn: (1) Rainy season began the earliest (latest) and ended the latest (earliest) in the southern (northern) YRB, with rainy-season precipitation increasing from northwest to southeast. (2) Rainy-season precipitation showed strong correlation to SST in Niño regions. Precipitation can reach up to 20% above the average precipitation for decaying central Pacific warming (CPW) and down to 35% below the average precipitation for developing eastern Pacific warming (EPW) in most areas of the YRB. (3) Developing El Niño showed the strongest dry signals among developing ENSO and ENSO Modoki phases. Decaying El Niño and El Niño Modoki indicated overall increasing precipitation, with La Niña and La Niña Modoki during the corresponding period showing the opposite tendency. (4) Different performances of ENSO-induced precipitation attributed to the combined influence of the monsoon from the India Ocean and the atmospheric circulation in the Western North Pacific (WNP). Stronger anti-cyclone and monsoon are related to increasing rainy-season precipitation. These findings can improve the predictability of rainy season features and ENSO-induced precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme climatic phenomena include prolonged heavy precipitation as well as long-lasting absence thereof. They are a consequence of weather anomalies and have many dangerous effects such as floods and droughts. This study aims to characterise the annual and long-term variability of the highest (Pmax) and lowest (Pmin) monthly precipitation totals and their relationship with atmospheric circulation. To achieve the above, use is made of 14 secular series (1881–2018) of precipitation from the Polish Carpathians and the calendar of circulation types over southern Poland prepared by T. Niedźwiedź (1981, 2019). On account of the variation in their relief, the Polish Carpathians are an area with a very great temporal and spatial variability in precipitation, ranging from complete absence to 500 mm per month. Pmax demonstrates a more noticeable annual frequency pattern, with a predominance in summer months, while Pmin shows smaller variations in individual months. Both Pmax and Pmin are characterised by irregular fluctuations in precipitation totals, with no statistically significant trend in their changes, which reflects the absence of a trend as regards overall precipitation volumes in this area. The study confirms an influence of the direction of air mass advection and (anti)cyclonicity of flow on Pmax and Pmin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperature and precipitation extremes are the dominant causes of natural disasters. In this study, seven indices of extreme temperature and precipitation events in Gansu Province, China, were analysed for the period 1961–2017. An abrupt climate shift was recorded during 1980–1981. Thus, the study period was divided into a preshift (before the climate shift) period 1961–1980 and an aftshift (after the climate shift) period 1981–2017. Comparison of mean extreme indices for preshift and aftshift periods was performed for the purpose of exploring possible increasing/decreasing patterns. Generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was applied spatially to fit the extreme indices with return periods up to 100 years for preshift/aftshift periods. Singular value decomposition (SVD) was adopted to investigate possible correlation between the extreme climate events and indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation. The results indicate that changes in mean and return levels between the preshift and aftshift periods vary significantly in time and space for different extreme indices. Increase in extreme temperature regarding magnitude and frequency for the aftshift period as compared with the preshift period suggests a change to a warmer and more extreme climate during recent years. Changes in precipitation extremes were different in southern and northern parts of Gansu. The precipitation extremes in the north have increased that can result in more serious floods and droughts in the future. SVD analyses revealed a complex pattern of correlation between climate extremes and indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation. Strengthening of westerlies and weakening of the south summer monsoon contribute to the complex changing patterns of precipitation extremes. Results in this study will contribute to disaster risk prevention and better water management in this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the changing characteristics and related mechanisms behind precipitation extremes is crucial for developing adaptive measures of water resource management as well as flood risk management. Based on daily precipitation measurement taken at 57 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2016, the variability of precipitation extremes over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is analyzed utilizing a Mann-Kendall trend test as well as a Hurst exponent analysis. Moreover, the climatic teleconnection that occurs from large-scale atmospheric circulation and such precipitation extremes is also investigated with the help of a wavelet coherence analysis. Results indicate that most extreme precipitation indices predominantly exhibit significant positive trends, indicating a wetting trend in the YRD over the past 61 years. Meanwhile, the contribution of precipitation of very wet days to annual total wet-day precipitation increased significantly. Furthermore, the increasing trend of precipitation extremes in the YRD is found to be attributable to the frequency and intensity, rather than to the duration of extreme precipitation events. The patterns of variation in these precipitation extremes reveal dramatic spatial heterogeneity, with extreme events concentrated primarily along the coastal plains. Overall, the YRD will likely face more severe flood risks in the foreseeable future. This is especially the case for the southern and central-western regions of the YRD. In contrast, the northern region of the YRD is forecast to become drier over time. The increasing trends in precipitation extremes for the YRD observed in this study are found to be linked closely with the positive anomalies of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation as well as the negative anomalies of the East Asian summer monsoon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to Iran geographical location and the general circulation of the atmosphere (or atmospheric circulation), rainfall starts in many parts early in autumn and ends in mid or late spring based on the latitude. Due to the dominating synoptic conditions during some years, rainfall starts earlier than the normal conditions, and during some years, rainfall starts later than the normal conditions. Such synoptic conditions showed that the start of rainfall, especially in the south and southwest of Iran, is closely related to the location and displacement of Arabian subtropical high pressure in autumn. A study conducted on rainfall beginning day of 30 stations in a statistical period in 36 regions in south and southwest of Iran showed that during 12 years of rainfall began later than normal conditions. Arabian subtropical high pressure was extracted 1000, 850, and 700 hPa at four sea levels since September 15 to the beginning day of rainfall. This study showed that during those years when rainfall began later than normal, there were three general states. During some years, the high pressure system has been out of the southwest of Iran later than normal conditions. In a number of years, the high pressure system has left the area, but has moved westward, or the southern border of the Persian Gulf. The governing synoptic conditions of these three patterns have made it impossible for any rainfall system entering the region. In these patterns, Sudan low pressure system has been blocked as the most effective rainfall system in the southern latitude on Sudan and Ethiopia, and it is not possible to expand on the region or move to another route. In the three patterns, Arabian subtropical high pressure generally has an orbital expansion, and in this way, Mediterranean trough has no potential to expand southward. As a result, instability cannot be transferred to the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study analyzes spatial patterns of precipitation Concentration Index (CI) in Puerto Rico considering the daily precipitation data of 20 precipitation-gauging stations during 1971–2010. The South and East interior parts of Puerto Rico are characterized by higher CI and the West and North-West parts show lower CI. The annual CI and the rainy season CI show a gradient from South-East to North-West and the dry season CI shows a gradient from South to North. Another difference between the rainy season CI and dry season CI is that the former shows the lowest values of CI while the latter shows the highest values of CI. The different types of seasonal precipitation seem to play a major role on the spatial CI distribution. However, the local relief plays a major role in the spatial patterns due to the effect of the air circulation by the mountains. These findings can contribute to basin-scale water resource management (flooding, soil erosion, etc.) and conservation of the ecological environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the Sudan low and the associated Red Sea trough (RST) are objectively identified using the mean sea level pressure (SLP) data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis dataset covering the period 1955–2015. The Sudan low was detected in approximately 60.6% of the autumn periods, and approximately 83% of the detected low-pressure systems extended into RSTs, with most generated at night and during cold months. The distribution of the RSTs demonstrated that Sudan, South Sudan and Red Sea are the primary development areas of the RSTs, generating 97% of the RSTs in the study period. In addition, the outermost areas affected by RSTs, which include the southern, central and northern Red Sea areas, received approximately 91% of the RSTs originating from the primary generation areas. The synoptic features indicated that a Sudan low developed into an RST when the Sudan low deepened in the atmosphere, while the low pressures over the southern Arabian Peninsula are shallow and the anticyclonic systems are weakened over the northern Red Sea. Moreover, stabile areas over Africa and Arabian Peninsula form a high stability gradient around the Red Sea and the upper maximum winds weaken. The results of the case studies indicate that RSTs extend northward when the upper cyclonic and anticyclonic systems form a high geopotential gradient over Arabian Peninsula. Furthermore, the RST is oriented from the west to the east when the Azores high extends eastward and the Siberian high shrinks eastward or shifts northward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

General Circulation Models (GCMs) are advanced tools for impact assessment and climate change studies. Previous studies show that the performance of the GCMs in simulating climate variables varies significantly over different regions. This study intends to evaluate the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation over Iran. Simulations from 37 GCMs and observations from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) were obtained for the period of 1901–2005. Six measures of performance including mean bias, root mean square error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), linear correlation coefficient (r), Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic (KS), Sen's slope estimator, and the Taylor diagram are used for the evaluation. GCMs are ranked based on each statistic at seasonal and annual time scales. Results show that most GCMs perform reasonably well in simulating the annual and seasonal temperature over Iran. The majority of the GCMs have a poor skill to simulate precipitation, particularly at seasonal scale. Based on the results, the best GCMs to represent temperature and precipitation simulations over Iran are the CMCC-CMS (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change) and the MRI-CGCM3 (Meteorological Research Institute), respectively. The results are valuable for climate and hydrometeorological studies and can help water resources planners and managers to choose the proper GCM based on their criteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate model faces considerable difficulties in simulating the rainfall characteristics of southwest summer monsoon. In this study, the dynamical downscaling of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast's (ECMWF's) ERA-Interim (EIN15) has been utilized for the simulation of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) through the Regional Climate Model version 4.3 (RegCM-4.3) over the South Asia Co-Ordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) domain. The complexities of model simulation over a particular terrain are generally influenced by factors such as complex topography, coastal boundary, and lack of unbiased initial and lateral boundary conditions. In order to overcome some of these limitations, the RegCM-4.3 is employed for simulating the rainfall characteristics over the complex topographical conditions. For reliable rainfall simulation, implementations of numerous lower boundary conditions are forced in the RegCM-4.3 with specific horizontal grid resolution of 50 km over South Asia CORDEX domain. The analysis is considered for 30 years of climatological simulation of rainfall, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), mean sea level pressure (MSLP), and wind with different vertical levels over the specified region. The dependency of model simulation with the forcing of EIN15 initial and lateral boundary conditions is used to understand the impact of simulated rainfall characteristics during different phases of summer monsoon. The results obtained from this study are used to evaluate the activity of initial conditions of zonal wind circulation speed, which causes an increase in the uncertainty of regional model output over the region under investigation. Further, the results showed that the EIN15 zonal wind circulation lacks sufficient speed over the specified region in a particular time, which was carried forward by the RegCM output and leads to a disrupted regional simulation in the climate model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The overall yearly seasonal performance of Indian southwest monsoon rainfall (ISMR) for the whole Indian land mass is presently expressed by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) by a single number, the total quantum of rainfall. Any particular year is declared as excess/deficit or normal monsoon rainfall year on the basis of this single number. It is well known that monsoon rainfall also has high interannual variability in spatial and temporal scales. To account for these aspects in ISMR, we propose two new spatial and temporal indices. These indices have been calculated using the 115 years of IMD daily 0.25° × 0.25° gridded rainfall data. Both indices seem to go in tandem with the in vogue seasonal quantum index. The anomaly analysis indicates that the indices during excess monsoon years behave randomly, while for deficit monsoon years the phase of all the three indices is the same. Evaluation of these indices is also studied with respect to the existing dynamical indices based on large-scale circulation. It is found that the new temporal indices have better link with circulation indices as compared to the new spatial indices. El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) especially over the equatorial Pacific Ocean still have the largest influence in both the new indices. However, temporal indices have much better remote influence as compared to that of spatial indices. Linkages over the Indian Ocean regions are very different in both the spatial and temporal indices. Continuous wavelet transform (CWT) analysis indicates that the complete spectrum of oscillation of the QI is shared in the lower oscillation band by the spatial index and in the higher oscillation band by the temporal index. These new indices may give some extra dimension to study Indian summer monsoon variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assesses the performance of 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations of rainfall over East Africa (EA) against reanalyzed datasets during 1951–2005. The datasets were sourced from Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and Climate Research Unit (CRU). The metrics used to rank CMIP5 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) based on their performance in reproducing the observed rainfall include correlation coefficient, standard deviation, bias, percentage bias, root mean square error, and trend. Performances of individual models vary widely. The overall performance of the models over EA is generally low. The models reproduce the observed bimodal rainfall over EA. However, majority of them overestimate and underestimate the October–December (OND) and March–May (MAM) rainfall, respectively. The monthly (inter-annual) correlation between model and reanalyzed is high (low). More than a third of the models show a positive bias of the annual rainfall. High standard deviation in rainfall is recorded in the Lake Victoria Basin, central Kenya, and eastern Tanzania. A number of models reproduce the spatial standard deviation of rainfall during MAM season as compared to OND. The top eight models that produce rainfall over EA relatively well are as follows: CanESM2, CESM1-CAM5, CMCC-CESM, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, EC-EARTH, INMCM4, and MICROC5. Although these results form a fairly good basis for selection of GCMs for carrying out climate projections and downscaling over EA, it is evident that there is still need for critical improvement in rainfall-related processes in the models assessed. Therefore, climate users are advised to use the projections of rainfall from CMIP5 models over EA cautiously when making decisions on adaptation to or mitigation of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strong logical relationships exist between temperature difference and hydro-meteorological variables such as precipitation, dry days, and dry spells. These relationships can be used for knowing how the differences of total and top 10% heavy precipitations, dry days, and dry spells will change with respect to temperature differences? Here, daily precipitation and temperature records over Turkey are considered from 1971 to 2010, inclusive. First 30-year (1971-2000) data are used for training for temperature difference function (ΔT) and the remaining 10-year (2001-2010) is reserved for validation. The temperature difference function is validated by mean relative error, and the results are calculated for total and top 10% heavy precipitation, dry days, and spells as 14.60%, 6.14%, 2.81%, and 11.89%, respectively. The strong relationship exists between temperature difference function and standard deviation of corresponding climatic variables. Results show that standard deviation and mean relative error (MRE) have linear correlation. Also, ΔT model predictions are compared with CMIP5 RCPs projections from 2020 to 2100. The suggested model predictions fall within the range of various atmosphere-ocean global circulation (climate) model (AOGCM) scenario RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 projections, in addition to model predictions cross-correlation for RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we investigated variation of the meridional movement of the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP). The variation was measured by the central latitude (Clat) of the WPWP on various time scales. Its relationships with global sea surface temperature (SST), precipitation, and atmospheric circulation were examined by applying several advanced statistical methods. First, the techniques of wavelet analysis and least-square adjustment were used to depict the time-frequency features and the mean dominant oscillating time scales of the Clat. Then, a multi-stage filtering technique was applied to illustrate the related dominant oscillating signals. We also examined the time-frequency characteristics of the relationships between Clat and the leading modes of the Indo-Pacific oceans by employing a cross-covariance function analysis and a multiple moving-window method. The physical mechanisms for the relationships between Clat and the patterns of SST, precipitation, and atmospheric circulation were discussed. Results indicated that there is a weakening trend in the oscillation of Clat mainly because the quasi-annual oscillation of Clat increases in January-March and decreases in July-September. The semi-annual oscillation of Clat closely interacts with the westerly wind over the summer hemisphere of the tropical western Pacific Ocean and with the easterly wind over the winter hemisphere of the ocean. The interannual component of Clat corresponds to El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean basin-wide warming or cooling with strengthened oscillations in the 1970s, and the lower-frequency component of Clat closely corresponds to the central Pacific type of El Niño from the 1990s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought over the Greek region is characterized by a strong seasonal cycle and large spatial variability. Dry spells longer than 10 consecutive days mainly characterize the duration and the intensity of Greek drought. Moreover, an increasing trend of the frequency of drought episodes has been observed, especially during the last 20 years of the 20th century. Moreover, the most recent regional circulation models (RCMs) present discrepancies compared to observed precipitation, while they are able to reproduce the main patterns of atmospheric circulation. In this study, both a statistical and a dynamical downscaling approach are used to quantify drought episodes over Greece by simulating the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for different time steps (3, 6, and 12 months). A statistical downscaling technique based on artificial neural network is employed for the estimation of SPI over Greece, while this drought index is also estimated using the RCM precipitation for the time period of 1961-1990. Overall, it was found that the drought characteristics (intensity, duration, and spatial extent) were well reproduced by the regional climate models for long term drought indices (SPI12) while ANN simulations are better for the short-term drought indices (SPI3). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A weather-type catalogue based on the Jenkinson and Collison method was developed for an area in south-west Russia for the period 1961-2010. Gridded sea level pressure data was obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. The resulting catalogue was analysed for frequency of individual types and groups of weather types to characterise long-term atmospheric circulation in this region. Overall, the most frequent type is anticyclonic (A) (23.3 %) followed by cyclonic (C) (11.9 %); however, there are some key seasonal patterns with westerly circulation being significantly more common in winter than summer. The utility of this synoptic classification is evaluated by modelling daily rainfall amounts. A low level of error is found using a simple model based on the prevailing weather type. Finally, characteristics of the circulation classification are compared to those for the original JC British Isles catalogue and a much more equal distribution of flow types is seen in the former classification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this study is to characterize the atmospheric patterns associated with the occurrence of intense precipitation events (IPE) in different sub-regions of the Brazilian Amazon. Intense rainfall cases over six sub-regions were selected from a precipitation data set for the period from 1983 to 2012. The composition technique was used to characterize the prevailing atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of IPE. In the south of the Amazon, the composition fields showed a favorable configuration for the formation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). Along the coast, the intense precipitation events must be associated with mesoscale systems, such as squall lines. In the northwest, they are apparently associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and/or local convection. The results reveal the complexity of the synoptic environment associated with the formation and development of weather systems that produce heavy rainfall in the Amazon Basin. Several factors can interfere as conditions in large-scale, local conditions and thermodynamic factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, regional patterns of precipitation in Marmara are described for the first time by means of Ward's hierarchical cluster analysis. Daily values of winter precipitation data based on 19 meteorological stations were used for the period from 1960 to 2012. Five clusters of coherent zones were determined, namely Black Sea-Marmara, Black Sea, Marmara, Thrace, and Aegean sub-regions. To investigate the prevailing atmospheric circulation types (CTs) that cause precipitation occurrence and intensity in these five different rainfall sub-basins, objective Lamb weather type (LWT) methodology was applied to National Centers of Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis of daily mean sea level pressure (MSLP) data. Precipitation occurrence suggested that wet CTs (i.e. N, NE, NW, and C) offer a high chance of precipitation in all sub-regions. For the eastern (western) part of the region, the high probability of rainfall occurrence is shown under the influence of E (SE, S, SW) atmospheric CTs. In terms of precipitation intensity, N and C CTs had the highest positive gradients in all the sub-basins of the Marmara. In addition, although Marmara and Black Sea sub-regions have the highest daily rainfall potential during NE types, high daily rainfall totals are recorded in all sub-regions except the Black Sea during NW types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using three models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we compare the direct and other effects of anthropogenic aerosols on observed and simulated annual, winter, and summer temperature changes. Three regions, namely, arid-semiarid area, humid-semiarid area, and the whole of China, are studied. The temperature changes caused by other effects of anthropogenic aerosol (OE) are calculated from the difference between the anthropogenic aerosol forcing run (AA) and the anthropogenic aerosol direct effect forcing run (DE). When the combined effects are considered, a significant area-averaged cooling rate varies in the range of −0.86 to −0.76 °C per century throughout China. Meanwhile, the isolated direct and other effects lower the temperature nationwide by −0.66 to −0.55 °C per century, and −0.31 to −0.11 °C per century, respectively. From a nonlinear perspective, the aerosol-induced temperature experiences a cooling trend, with AA having the largest cooling trend changes both annually and in the summer, while DE has the greatest reduction in the winter. Additionally, the influence of OE cannot be detected in observed annual changes over the arid-semiarid area and the whole of China, while the others are clearly detectable in all cases. AA (DE, OE) reduces the observational temperature mainly over the humid-semihumid region, where the contribution to the observed warming ranges from −515.2 % (−298.7 %, −198.9 %) to −173.6 % (−130.3 %, −66.4 %). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the performance of dynamical seasonal forecast systems is evaluated for the prediction of short rain anomalies over equatorial East Africa. The evaluation is based on observational datasets and the Asia-Pacific Climate Center (APCC) Ocean-Atmosphere coupled multi-model ensemble (MME) retrospective forecasts (hindcasts). These forecast systems have different hindcast periods; here, we have selected common years from 1982 to 2005. The ensembles of individual models and their MME mean are evaluated. Hindcasts initialized on the 1st of August from each year alone are considered, as these are the most relevant to short rain predictions. The coupled climate model ensemble reproduces the spatial distribution of mean September-October-November (SON) rainfall and seasonal climate variations over equatorial East Africa with further improvement in MME mean. Individual coupled models and MME mean also show statistically significant skill in forecasting sea surface temperatures anomalies (SSTAs) over the western and eastern parts of the equatorial Indian Ocean, giving significant correlation at 99 % confidence level for Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). Moreover, five out of ten coupled models and MME mean show statistically significant skill in predicting equatorial East Africa short rains. The fidelity of hindcasts is further measured by anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and four models as well as MME mean show significant skill over East Africa. It is shown that the reproduction of the observed variability in the East African region is mainly due to a realistic relationship of East African rainfall with the Indian Ocean dipole. Overall, the skill of the dynamical models is attributed to the fact that slowly evolving SSTs are the primary source of predictability and to the fact that coupled climate models produce skillful predictions of SON SST anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean. This information opens the possibility of using readily available seasonal forecasts as skillful predictions of equatorial East Africa short rains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The change structures of precipitation and precipitation intensity and rainy days are analyzed for the Pearl River Basin (from 1959 to 2009) on the basis of a suite of 24 climatic indices derived from daily precipitation data at 62 meteorological stations with the help of the Mann-Kendall test. Contributions of seasonal precipitation and precipitation intensity class to the annual precipitation are also examined using the inverse distance weighted method. The following four conclusions can be drawn: (1) although the average annual precipitation of the entire basin does not show obvious variation, the number of annual rainy days has decreased significantly in 98.3 % of the stations. These two factors result in an obvious increase in precipitation intensity at 64.5 % of the stations. (2) No clear change trend has been found for seasonal precipitation over the entire area; however, the number of rainy days in each season has decreased significantly. In particular, the number of rainy days in the entire year and in the fall season has decreased in 98.3 and 100 % of the stations, respectively. (3) Although the number of rainy days in drizzle has decreased in 83.9 % of the stations, the number of rainy days where heavy rain and extremely heavy rain occurred increased in nearly 75.8 and 82.3 % of the stations, respectively. (4) The number of rainy days in fall and winter contributes more to the change in the number of annual rainy days than the number of rainy days in spring and summer. Heavy rain and extremely heavy rain contribute more to the change in total annual precipitation than drizzle; however, they contribute less to the change in the number of annual rainy days than drizzle. The findings in this study can provide important information for formulating water resource and eco-environment management strategies in the Pearl River Basin to policymakers and stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent heterogeneous warming and the associated summer precipitation over eastern China are investigated in this study. In 1990-1999, there exist warming over northwestern Pacific and cooling over eastern equatorial Pacific, which can be quantified by temperature gradient index (TGI). Positive and negative cases are chosen based on TGI. In positive cases, a 'southern flood and northern drought' summer rainfall pattern dominates over eastern China. The atmospheric circulations show that associated with the southward receding of western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), ascending motion accompanied with more water vapor exists over southern China. Furthermore, cold-warm air activity affected by weakened East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ) and strengthened East Asia polar front jet (EAPJ) may also be responsible for this rainfall anomaly pattern. In negative cases, significant positive Meiyu-like rainfall anomaly concentrated over Yangtze Huaihe River Basin (YHRB). Associated with the northward shift of WPSH, more water vapor is transported to YHRB. Additionally, the enhanced ascending motion over YHRB may be related with the northward shift of the EAPJ and westward shift of the EASJ. The results reinforce the notion that the configuration of EASJ and EAPJ in both intensity and position has large impacts on the precipitation variations over eastern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An existing streamflow downscaling model (SDM), was modified with the outputs of a precipitation downscaling model (PDM) and an evaporation downscaling model (EDM) as additional inputs, for improving streamflow projections. For this purpose, lag 0, lag 1 and lag 2 outputs of PDM were individually introduced to SDM as additional inputs, and then it was calibrated and validated. Performances of the resulting modified models were assessed using Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) during calibration and validation. It was found that the use of lag 0 precipitation as an additional input to SDM improves NSE in calibration and validation. This modified streamflow downscaling model is called SDM. Then lag 0, lag 1 and lag 2 evaporation of EDM were individually introduced to SDM as additional inputs and it was calibrated and validated. The resulting models showed signs of over-fitting in calibration and under-fitting in validation. Hence, SDM was selected as the best model. When SDM was run with observed lag 0 precipitation, a large improvement in NSE was seen. This proved that if precipitation produced by the PDM can accurately reproduce the observations, improved precipitation predictions will produce better streamflow predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This contribution investigates the relationship between the large-scale atmospheric circulation and interannual variations of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) in Central Europe. To this end, circulation types (CT) have been derived from a variety of circulation type classifications (CTC) applied to daily sea level pressure (SLP) data and mean circulation indices of vorticity ( V), zonality ( Z) and meridionality ( M) have been calculated. Occurrence frequencies of CTs and circulation indices have been utilized as predictors within multiple regression models (MRM) for the estimation of gridded 3-month SPI values over Central Europe, for the period 1950 to 2010. CTC-based MRMs used in the analyses comprise variants concerning the basic method for CT classification, the number of CTs, the size and location of the spatial domain used for CTCs and the exclusive use of CT frequencies or the combined use of CT frequencies and mean circulation indices as predictors. Adequate MRM predictor combinations have been identified by applying stepwise multiple regression analyses within a resampling framework. The performance (robustness) of the resulting MRMs has been quantified based on a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure applying several skill scores. Furthermore, the relative importance of individual predictors has been estimated for each MRM. From these analyses, it can be stated that model skill is improved by (i) the consideration of vorticity characteristics within CTCs, (ii) a relatively small size of the spatial domain to which CTCs are applied and (iii) the inclusion of mean circulation indices. However, model skill exhibits distinct variations between seasons and regions. Whereas promising skill can be stated for the western and northwestern parts of the Central European domain, only unsatisfactory skill is reached in the more continental regions and particularly during summer. Thus, it can be concluded that the presented approaches feature the potential for the downscaling of Central European drought index variations from the large-scale circulation, at least for some regions. Further improvements of CTC-based approaches may be expected from the optimization of CTCs for explaining the SPI, e.g. via the inclusion of additional variables in the classification procedure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the output data of Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model version 2.0.1 (BCC_AGCM2.0.1), this study evaluates the simulated precipitation and associated circulation during the Meiyu period over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin (YHRB). The results show that BCC_AGCM2.0.1 can reasonably reproduce the spatial pattern of Meiyu over the YHRB. However, compared to the observation, the model underestimated (overestimated) the torrential and heavy (moderate and light) rainy days, indicating that the more (less) simulated light (torrential) rainy days result in more (less) modeled total rainy days (Meiyu precipitation amount). The simulated Meiyu onset begins in early June, earlier about 20 days than the climatological observation. For duration, Meiyu persists for 15 days, about 5 days shorter than the observation, which may be due to the simulated land-sea thermal contrast is earlier in early June. During the Meiyu period, the distribution patterns of the upper troposphere atmospheric circulation can be well simulated by BCC_AGCM2.0.1, but the obvious deficiency lies in the lower-troposphere air temperature and wind field, especially over Tibetan Plateau area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The observed winter (DJF) precipitation in Southeast China (1961-2010) is characterized by a monopole pattern of the 3-monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3) whose interannual variability is related to the anomalies of East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) systems. Dynamic composites and linear regression analysis indicate that the intensity of EAWM and Siberia High (SH), the position of East Asian Trough (EAT), and El Niño events and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over South China Sea (SCS) influence different regions of anomalous Southeast China winter precipitation on interannual scales. The circulation indices (EAWM index, SH index, and EAT index) mainly affect the winter precipitation in the eastern part of Southeast China. El Niño events affect the South China winter precipitation due to the anticyclone anomalies over Philippines. The effect of SCS SST anomalies on the winter precipitation is mainly in the southern part of Yangtze River. Thus, a set of circulation regimes, represented by a handful indices, provide the basis for modeling precipitation anomalies or extremes in future climate projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal (south-western Europe) using daily precipitation data recorded in the period 1941-2007 (67 years) at 57 meteorological stations scattered across the area are studied at an annual scale. Trends in selected precipitation annual indices that are calculated from these data are investigated, in particular trends in the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme precipitation events. Special attention is dedicated to local and regional variability. The spatial correlations between the annual trends in mean precipitation and in the extremes are analysed. Moreover, the relationships between the variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and several indices related to the frequency and intensity of the precipitation at the 57 stations were also investigated. Results show that several stations have predominantly negative tendencies in the precipitation indices, although the majority of stations did not show statistically significant change over time in the 1941-2007 period. At the regional level, the decreasing trend in the simple daily precipitation intensity index is the only one statistically significant at the 5 % level and appears to be related to the predominance of the positive phase of the NAO. For the period 1976-2007, the proportion of the total precipitation attributed to heavy and very heavy precipitation events increased and, consequently, daily precipitation events show a tendency to become more intense. Moreover, correlation analysis show that the most extreme events could be changing at a faster absolute rate in relation to the mean than more moderate events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) is an intrinsic characteristic of the South American Summer Monsoon. In a recent study, we verified that the main mode of coupled variability over the South Atlantic (South Atlantic Dipole (SAD)) plays a role in modulating the position of extratropical cyclones that affect the SACZ precipitation. In this study, we perform numerical experiments to further investigate the mechanisms between SAD and the SACZ. Numerical experiments forced with prescribed SST anomalies showed that, even though the Atlantic SST affects the position of the cyclone associated with the SACZ, the atmospheric response and precipitation patterns over land are opposed to the observations. On the other hand, experiments forced with prescribed anomalous driving fields showed that the atmospheric component of SAD plays a significant role for the right position and intensity of precipitation associated with the SACZ. SAD negative anomalies provide the low-level and upper-level atmospheric support for the intensification of the cyclone at surface and for the increase in precipitation over the land portion of the SACZ. Therefore, the numerical experiments suggest that, during El Niño Southern Oscillation neutral conditions, the SACZ precipitation variability associated with SAD is largely dependent on the atmospheric variability rather than the underlying SST. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The behaviour of precipitation and maximum temperature extremes in the Mediterranean area under climate change conditions is analysed in the present study. In this context, the ability of synoptic downscaling techniques in combination with extreme value statistics for dealing with extremes is investigated. Analyses are based upon a set of long-term station time series in the whole Mediterranean area. At first, a station-specific ensemble approach for model validation was developed which includes (1) the downscaling of daily precipitation and maximum temperature values from the large-scale atmospheric circulation via analogue method and (2) the fitting of extremes by generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Model uncertainties are quantified as confidence intervals derived from the ensemble distributions of GPD-related return values and described by a new metric called 'ratio of overlapping'. Model performance for extreme precipitation is highest in winter, whereas the best models for maximum temperature extremes are set up in autumn. Valid models are applied to a 30-year period at the end of the twenty-first century (2070-2099) by means of ECHAM5/MPI-OM general circulation model data for IPCC SRES B1 scenario. The most distinctive future changes are observed in autumn in terms of a strong reduction of precipitation extremes in Northwest Iberia and the Northern Central Mediterranean area as well as a simultaneous distinct increase of maximum temperature extremes in Southwestern Iberia and the Central and Southeastern Mediterranean regions. These signals are checked for changes in the underlying dynamical processes using extreme-related circulation classifications. The most important finding connected to future changes of precipitation extremes in the Northwestern Mediterranean area is a reduction of southerly displaced deep North Atlantic cyclones in 2070-2099 as associated with a strengthened North Atlantic Oscillation. Thus, the here estimated future changes of extreme precipitation are in line with the discourse about the influence of North Atlantic circulation variability on the changing climate in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sixty-year-long January-March (JFM) rainfall data from four (4) stations along the Kalahari Transect were analyzed for long-term trends and abrupt changes in rainfall regimes. On average, JFM rainfall accounts for more than 50 % of annual rainfall in the region. Mann-Kendall trend test has shown an insignificant heterogeneous trend in the seasonal rainfall of −1.097, 0.029, −0.407, and −1.327 mm/year for Maun, Ghanzi, Tsabong, and Tshane, respectively. An abrupt change in rainfall regimes in these areas was investigated and was found to occur in the year 1982 for all stations. The change is related to large-scale atmospheric circulations. Analysis of large-scale atmospheric circulations before 1982 over the region has shown the formation of a tropical low pressure convective system over the Kalahari Transect. The tropical system shifted eastward after 1982 to be centered over southeastern southern Africa with a significant reduction in rainfall over the Kalahari. A direct impact of this is the livestock-induced overgrazing which has lead to excessive removal of palatable herbaceous species thereby giving woody species, such as Accacia mellifera and Grewia flava, a competitive edge for dominance in the ecosystems. Seed production of A. mellifera depends on rainfall; therefore, abrupt changes in rainfall regimes impact livelihood and eco-tourism industry. The correlation studies between rainfall anomalies and NINO3.4 indices show a reduction in the influence of El-Niño Southern Oscillation on the Kalahari Transect rainfall after 1982. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate variability in Europe and northern Asia is markedly affected by changes in atmospheric circulation. Two manual catalogues of large-scale circulation patterns, the 'Grosswetterlagen' (GWLc) and 'Vangengeim-Girs' classifications (VGc), were analysed and compared to detect frequency changes of circulation forms. Results were compared with variations of 'objective' references: variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and a hybrid version of the GWLc (SynopVis Grosswetterlagen catalogue, SVGc). Changes were investigated for 1901-2010, focussing on the most recent climate normal (1981-2010). Trends are moderate in the winter half year (WHY), but rather consistent between the approaches. Circulation variability within VGc/NAO and GWLc/SVGc largely agrees. In the summer half year, large trends are visible in VGc and GWLc, but their objective support by the SVGc, showing comparably small changes, is low. Changes in the distribution of circulation patterns likely fostered a larger temperature increase in the investigated regions compared to global average temperatures during the past 30 years in the WHY. The results of this study help further in investigating temperature and precipitation changes in both Europe and northern Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

All elements of climate that affect climatic events must be taken into account such that the climate regions are determined with exactitude. To this end, data on maximum temperature (Tx), minimum temperature (Tn), mean temperature (Tm), and precipitation (Pt) as well as local pressure (Ps), mean wind (WN), relative humidity (RH), and specific humidity (SH) have been investigated statistically and graphically. The specific humidity data calculated using Tm, Ps, and RH data and statistical comparisons have shown that there are no drawbacks to using SH in climatologic studies. According to principal component analysis, it was concluded that RH and SH should be used together with Tx, Tm, Tn, and Pt for the determination of the climate regions. Two cluster analysis methods, Ward's method and Kohonen neural network technique, were used to show the effect of RH and SH. A comparison of the cluster's stability between the limited and high number of stations shows that Ward's method and Kohonen neural network are very stable in both cases. It was also determined that RH does not change the outline of climate regions but that it affects the zones of climate transition. It was observed that clusters determined by using Tm, Pt, and RH provide relatively more distinctive clusters in the data space than clusters determined by using Tm, Pt, and SH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of local black carbon (BC) on monthly mean precipitation and the associated circulation in South Asia is investigated. The results show that the amplified shortwave radiative heating rate by BC absorption enhances convective activity near the Himalayas and the southern Tibetan Plateau with increased rainfall anomalies in April and May, which is consistent with previous studies. However, the enhanced vertical motions and the precipitation ultimately lead towards cooling of the lower troposphere especially in May, which is extended till June. This favored negative rainfall responses in June, implying delay in the onset of South Asian summer monsoon rainfalls over Arabian Sea and western parts of the subcontinent. The negative precipitation response is further associated with the prevailing anomalous high pressure and the anticyclonic wind circulations induced by BC. Thus, we present here one different feature associated with BC-induced elevated heat pump-like circulations in South Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes of total precipitation, extreme precipitation, and dry periods in the Mediterranean area until the end of the twenty-first century have been assessed by means of statistical downscaling. Generalized linear models using predictors describing the large-scale atmospheric circulation as well as thermodynamic conditions have been applied for the projections under A1B and B1 scenario assumptions. The results mostly point to reductions of total and extreme precipitation over the western and central-northern Mediterranean areas in summer and autumn and to increases in winter. In contrast, over the eastern Mediterranean area widespread precipitation increases are assessed in summer and autumn, whereas reductions dominate in winter. In spring, total and extreme precipitation decreases prevail over the whole Mediterranean area. Total and extreme precipitation decreases mostly come along with increases of the maximum dry period length. Vice versa precipitation increases are commonly accompanied by a shortening of the maximum dry period length. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]