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This paper presents a validation of outputs from some GCMs of the CMIP6 project when used to assess climate projection and hydrological flows at a catchment scale for the case study area of the Lombardy region (Northern Italy). The modeling chain consists of (i) a choice of climatic scenarios from 10 GCMs of the CMIP6, (ii) the application of a stochastic downscaling procedure to make projections usable at the local scale, and (iii) the use of a semi-distributed physically based hydrological model Poli-Hydro for the generation of hydrological scenarios. Data on observed precipitation and temperature were collected from automatic weather stations, and the hydrological budget of four target catchments within the study area was assessed using Poli-Hydro. An ex-post (back-casting) analysis was performed upon the control data series from the GCMs by comparing statistics of relevant climate variables and model-simulated discharges against observed counterparts during the historical period 2002–2014. Then, during 2015–2021, the goodness of projections was assessed using confidence intervals. Our results show that the accuracy of GCMs in representing regional climate is not always reflected in a credible evaluation of local hydrology. The validation of climate patterns provides somewhat poor results; thus, the interaction among climate and hydrology needs to be explored carefully to warrant the credibility of hydrological scenarios. Overall, the spatial and temporal consistency of GCM projections, as explored here climatically and hydrologically, provides a clue about their dependability for basin scale management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The availability of quality precipitation records in the current climate situation is of great importance in the scientific-technical field but also for the public institutions that manage the meteorological networks. This work has implemented a comprehensive spatial quality control procedure in the semiarid region of Andalusia (Southern Spain), using precipitation time series from 1947 stations from three meteorological networks: Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET), Agroclimatic Information Network of Andalusia (RIA), and Phytosanitary Information Alert Network (RAIF). The method consists of three consecutive steps: basic, absolute, and relative quality control processes. The latter step compares data from neighboring stations taking into account their proximity, height difference, and correlation, leading to a complete evaluation of each daily value. Finally, the quality of each year at each station can be declared as acceptable, good, or excellent. The automatic weather station networks RIA and RAIF gave absolute quality index Q above 85% for almost 87% of their stations, while only 57% of AEMET network reached this percentage. However, one of the longest AEMET datasets, San Fernando-Cádiz, obtained, except for 1 year, Q values over 90% in all available years for more than a century of measurements, since 1870 until 2000. From a total of more than 15 million daily records, almost 82% was flagged as correct. Despite the limitations of Andalusia region (low density of stations and its structural water deficit), the complete quality control procedure has been satisfactorily applied. Finally, related to the number of outliers, no temporal trend was found across the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Net radiation is an important factor in studies of land–atmosphere processes, water resource management, and global climate change. This is particularly true for the Upper Blue Nile (UBN) basin, where significant parts of the basin are dry and evapotranspiration (ET) is a major mechanism for water loss. However, net radiation has not yet been appropriately parameterized in the basin. In this study, we estimated the instantaneous distribution of the net radiation flux in the basin using data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor onboard the Terra satellite and Automatic Weather Station (AWS) data. Downward shortwave radiation and air temperature usually vary with topography, so we applied residual kriging spatial interpolation techniques to convert AWS data for point locations into gridded surface data. Simulated net radiation outputs were validated through comparison with independent field measurements. Validation results show that our method successfully reproduced the downward shortwave, upward shortwave, and net radiation fluxes. Using AWS data and residual kriging spatial interpolation techniques makes our results robust and comparable to previous works that used satellite data at a finer spatial resolution than MODIS. The estimated net shortwave, longwave, and total radiation fluxes were in close agreement with ground truth measurements, with mean bias (MB) values of − 14.84, 5.7, and 20.53 W m−2 and root mean square error (RMSE) values 83.43, 32.54, and 78.07 W m−2, respectively. The method presented here has potential applications in research focused on energy balance, ET estimation, and weather prediction for regions with similar physiographic features to those of the Nile basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]