Search

Multivariate hydrological series become nonstationary under the changing environment. In this paper, a new method is proposed to study the change in the dependence structure between runoff and sediment sequences. First, a moving cut transfer entropy is proposed to detect the sudden change point in the dependence structure between runoff and sediment. Then, the Gumbel copula with a new parameter estimation method (MEE) is employed to construct the dependence structure of runoff and sediment before or after the change point for situation with small samples. The new method is applied to the annual runoff and sediment discharge series in Xiliugou River, China. It is found that the dependence structure between runoff and sediment changed abruptly in 2000. The joint probabilistic characteristics of the annual runoff and sediment discharge during the period of 1960–1999 are built based on the values of RMSEs and AICs. The joint distribution of the annual runoff and sediment discharge during the period of 2000–2016 is constructed by the Gumbel copula with MEE. Moreover, the synchronous encounter probability of runoff and sediment decreases from 0.76 to 0.63, and the asynchronous encounter probability rises from 0.24 to 0.37, after the runoff and sediment discharge series presents a significant change in the dependence structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Runoff and sediment discharge have displayed great reductions due to climate change and enhanced various human activities during recent decades in the Jialing River, China, with significant environmental and social implications. The water balance equation, double mass curve, and linear regression analysis were employed to quantify the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff and sediment discharge reductions in the Jialing River during 1960–2017. The results indicated that the annual runoff of the Jialing River exhibited a significant decreasing trend of − 2.75 × 108 m3 every year (P < 0.05) but no significant abrupt change occurred, while annual sediment discharge significantly decreased by 0.03 × 108 t every year (P < 0.05) with a significant abrupt change in 1990 (P < 0.05). Climate change led to a great reduction (82.2%) in annual runoff from 1960 to 2017 in the Jialing River, whereas the contribution of climate change to sediment discharge reduction in the human-affected period (1990–2017) was only 4.55% and precipitation inclined to increase sediment discharge in recent years (2010–2017). The reduced sediment discharge in the 1990s was mostly due to the implementation of soil–water conservation programs and the reduction after 2000 was due to the development of reservoirs as well as the implementation of soil–water conservation programs. The results provided references to develop various human activities better and drew great attention to strengthening basin management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the variability of sediment discharge and runoff in the Hekou-Longmen segment in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, China. Our analysis is based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), sediment discharge, runoff, and monthly meteorological data (1961-2010). The climate conditions are controlled via monthly regional average precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (ET) that are calculated with the Penman-Monteith method. Data regarding water and soil conservation infrastructure and their effects were investigated as causal factors of runoff and sediment discharge changes. The results indicated the following conclusions: (1) The sediment concentration, sediment discharge, and annual runoff, varied considerably during the study period and all of these factors exhibited larger coefficients of variation than ET and precipitation. (2) Sediment discharge, annual runoff, and sediment concentration significantly declined over the study period in a linear fashion. This was accompanied by an increase in ET and decline in precipitation that were not significant. (3) Within paired years with similar precipitation and potential evapotranspiration conditions (SPEC), all pairs showed a decline in runoff, sediment discharge, and sediment concentration. (4) Human impacts in this region were markedly high as indicated by NDVI, and soil and water measurements, and especially the soil and water conservation infrastructure resulting in an approximately 312 Mt year of sediment deposition during 1960-1999. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]