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Evapotranspiration (ET), one of the key components of the hydrological system, plays a major role in the water availability assessment in a region. ET is a complex process, and calculating ET from reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is one of the popular methods, where pan evaporation (EPan) value is converted to ET0 by multiplying the EPan value with the pan coefficient (Kp) value. The Kp value depends on the climatic factors; hence, the determination of Kp varies for different regions. This paper investigates the spatial and temporal variation of the Kp values for the northeastern region (NER) of India having diverse topography and climatic conditions. Observed EPan data and ET0 calculated for ten selected stations of the eco-sensitive region NER of India were used for calculating the Kp values in monthly, seasonal, and annual timescales. Spatial variation of the Kp was identified by interpolation method, and temporal trends in the Kp values were identified by using the parametric method (Linear regression test) and non-parametric (Mann-Kendall test (MK)) after the pre-whitening of the time series. The average monthly Kp values in the NER of India varied from 0.788 in March at Umiam to 2.462 in July at Gangtok, whereas the annual Kp varied from 0.978 at Imphal to 1.822 at Gangtok. The seasonal Kp was found to be high during monsoon (1.401) and low during post-monsoon (1.017). Trend analysis shows that Kp was found to be increasing in annual, pre-monsoon, and monsoon seasons, whereas decreasing trends in Kp were found during winter and post-monsoon in the NER. The spatial distribution of Kp depicted that the values were found high in the northwest region and low in the remaining parts of the NER of India. The spatial distribution of trends and their magnitudes were found to be decreasing in the northwest and some parts of the northeast and southwest, whereas increasing trends were found in the central and southern parts of the NER. Results of Pettit's test for change point analysis observed that all but four stations of the NER witnessed the change point after 1990. Assessment of the Kp could be helpful for the estimation of actual evapotranspiration in the region, which further could be useful for water management in agriculture and other water sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the spatiotemporal characteristics of agricultural droughts and wet conditions in the Free State Province of South Africa for the period between 1960 and 2013. Since agriculturally, the Free State Province is considered the bread basket of the country, understanding the variability of drought and wet conditions becomes necessary. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) computed from gridded monthly precipitation data was used to assess the rainfall extreme conditions. Hot spot analysis was used to divide the province into five homogenous clusters where the spatiotemporal characteristics for each cluster were analysed. The results show a west to east increase in seasonal average total precipitation. However, the eastern part of the province demonstrates higher occurrences of droughts, with SPI ≤ − 1.282. This is despite the observation that the region shows a recent increase in droughts unlike the western region. It is also noted that significant differences in drought/wet intensities between clusters are more pronounced during the early compared to the late summer period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we quantify the changes in precipitation distribution in south-western Poland between the periods 1891-1930 and 1981-2010. The average monthly precipitation totals available for 368 and 245 stations, respectively, are spatially interpolated and processed to calculate maps of differences and pluvial continentality indices for both periods. The maps are analysed against changes in atmospheric circulation and take into account the potential role of the mountain barrier of the Sudetes. The main findings are (1) winter totals generally increased in conjunction with a higher frequency of zonal circulation; it is more pronounced in the upper parts of the Sudetes due to orographic effects; (2) a decreased frequency of zonal circulation together with an increased frequency of southern flows has likely led to the reduction of precipitation in spring and autumn. These changes have led to a significant modification of the region's pluvial regime, mostly by decreasing continentality features (especially in the Sudetes and the western lowlands). In addition, the strong sheltering influence of the mountain barrier is observed, driving the preservation or even the enhancement of the continental pluvial characteristics in the north-eastern to eastern foregrounds of the Sudetes. This leads to the conclusion that in areas where long-term observed trends or future projections of precipitation are ambiguous, there may occur significant modifications in regional characteristics, especially as a result of changes in atmospheric circulation modified by local orography. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) can change the spatio-temporal distribution of aerosols by influencing the aerosol horizontal and vertical transports and the wet deposition of aerosols over East Asia. In this paper, we examined the aerosol optical depth (AOD) during summer together with the intensity of the EASM based on moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer products on board the Terra satellite and the modeling results from the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model 5.1 in the mid-latitude monsoonal East Asia (20-45° N, 105-130° E). Our results from both observations and simulations show positive correlations of AOD with the monsoon intensity over the Northeast Asia sub-region (32.5-45° N, 105-130° E), and negative correlations with that over the southeast Asia sub-region (20-32.5° N, 105-130° E). The observed and simulated AODs were much larger over the northern sub-region and much smaller over the southern sub-region in the strongest monsoon years compared with those in the weakest monsoon years. The model results suggest that the mechanism responsible for the north-south difference in the aerosol distribution was mainly caused by lower-tropospheric meridional wind anomalies related to EASM. Compared with the weakest monsoon years, the strongest monsoon years experienced southerly wind anomalies, which enabled more aerosols to be transported northward and resulted in a convergence of aerosols over the northern sub-region. In addition, the wet deposition of aerosols reduced (enhanced) the aerosol concentrations in the northern (southern) sub-region during the strongest monsoon years compared with the weakest monsoon years, which partly offset the impact of the lower southerly winds on the aerosol distribution over East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meteorological and oceanographic data from ships of opportunity are the largest contributor to the world’s ocean surface database and thus are extensively used to estimate the change in climatic properties over the world’s oceans during the previous 150 years. The importance of these data for climate change studies underscores the need to fully understand the error associated with averages of these data. The sampling error problem is especially acute for ship data due to the fact that ships are moving platforms and, thus, report observations from constantly varying locations with time. This paper develops a theoretical framework for assessing the averaged sampling error associated with monthly, 1°×1° latitude-longitude box averaged ship data. It should be noted that the time-space distribution of ships within the averaging domain strongly affects the sampling error. This is shown in our derivation. The framework developed here can be used to improve upon existing methods for estimating the sampling error associated with three-dimensional box averages of meteorological and oceanographic data obtained from ship records. The framework is complimentary to existing methods of assessing biases and random error due to instrumentation, recording, etc. It is demonstrated mathematically that the uncertainty due to incomplete sampling is primarily a trade off between of the number of observations and their relative locations within the box as well as the inherent time-space correlation structure of the variable of interest. This work differs from other studies in that the three-dimensional interdependence of data is taken into account in deriving an expression for the sampling error. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Significant changes in the climatic system have been observed, which may be attributed to human-enhanced greenhouse effect. Even stronger changes are projected for the future, impacting in an increasing way on human activity sectors. The present contribution, prepared in the framework of the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) Project of the European Union, reviews how climate change may impact on winter tourism in the Alpine region, intense precipitation and flood potential in central Europe, forest damage in Scandinavia and beach holidays in the Mediterranean coast. Impacts are likely to be serious and largely adverse. Due to a lack of adequate information and lack of broadly accepted and reliable mathematical models describing the impact of changes in climate extremes on these activity sectors, it has been found useful to use expert judgement based impact assessment. Accordingly, regional mini-workshops were organized serving as platforms for communication between scientists and stakeholders, vehicles for dissemination of the state-of-the-art of the scientific understanding and for learning stakeholders’ view on extreme events, their impacts and the preparedness system. Stakeholders had the opportunity to react to the scientific results and to reflect on their perception of the likely impacts of projected changes in extremes on relevant activity sectors and the potential to adapt and avert adverse consequences. The results reported in this paper present the stakeholders’ suggestions for essential information on different extreme event impacts and their needs from science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper uses characteristics of the marine interstitial ciliate community in the White Sea intertidal sandflat during the period of 1991-2011, in order to study its long-term dynamics, investigating in particular whether it exhibits scaling behaviour into its fluctuations, which is a characteristic feature of the climate system. To this aim, a recently proposed version of the detrended fluctuation analysis is herewith employed which has been successfully applied to a wide range of simulated and physiologic time series in recent years. In case that the fluctuations of the ciliate community present self-similarity processes, an ideal field test for the currently proposed biological models will be established, allowing to evaluate their reliability. Indeed, we show for the first time that different ciliate species exhibit long-range power-law persistent correlations. This means that ciliate fluctuations in different intervals are positively correlated, obeying a power-law behaviour. Although the origin of power-law temporal evolution of ciliates should be further investigated, this finding is probably associated with the self-organized criticality of ciliates. It should be noted that the long-range correlations obtained do not imply the presence of specific cycles but rather the existence of dynamic links between long-term and short-term temporal evolution. The scaling behaviour found in marine interstitial ciliate community should be taken into account in the investigation of their response to the present or future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes long-term heating and cooling trends for five locations in Croatia from 1901 to 2008 to assist in the revision of Croatia's heating and cooling energy policy. Trends in monthly heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD) were determined for three related temperature threshold values each and analyzed to provide insight into the influence of desired thermal comfort on the extent of changes in energy consumption. Monthly trends in the corresponding number of heating days (HD) and cooling days (CD) were also analyzed. A basic investigation of HDD, HD, CDD, and CD trends proved to be essential to the development of a complete description of important climate-related conditions that impact energy demands associated with heating and cooling. In a few cases, the dependence of the trends on the implemented temperature thresholds was rather pronounced and was reflected in great spatial and temporal variations in monthly trends. The statistical significance of the detected monthly trends illustrated a diverse range of possible impacts of climate changes on heating and cooling energy consumption both across and within three main climate regions in Croatia (continental, mountainous, and maritime). It is confirmed that the applied monthly scale for analyses is suitable for assessing heating and cooling practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerical climate models usually cannot meet the operational service needs for sub-seasonal projections in East Asia. Modification of the preliminary predictions with downscaling methods is essential to improve prediction skills. In recent years, the downscaling process using deep learning algorithms has brought unprecedented changes for improving numerical climate forecasts. This study evaluated the sub-seasonal prediction skills of the China Meteorological Administration BCC-CPS-S2Sv2 (BCC S2S) model and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction CFSv2 (NCEP S2S) model for summer precipitation in Chongqing in Southwest China. To improve the prediction skills of the BCC S2S and NCEP S2S models, the ensemble deep learning models were established by integrating the Transformer, the Sequence-to-Sequence neural network (Seq2Seq), and the deep neural network (DNN). The ensemble deep learning models were established with both single-layer single-mode (single-layer model) and multi-layer multi-mode (multi-layer model) structures. The results indicate noticeable spatio-temporal variations in the sub-seasonal predictions of summer precipitation for both the BCC S2S and NCEP S2S models. The prediction skills of these two S2S models decrease with the extension of prediction timeliness and obtain a final skill of two pentads (10 days). Both the single-layer and multi-layer models improve the prediction skills for summer precipitation. However, great variabilities are found in the predictions using the single-layer model across the six pentads. Compared with the single-layer model, the multi-layer model shows higher skills by providing more stable predictions across the entire Chongqing from the first to the sixth pentad. The anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) values are improved by 0.29, 0.46, 0.37, 0.31, 0.48, and 0.44 for the BCC S2S, and 0.21, 0.41, 0.40, 0.29, 0.47, and 0.40 for the NCEP S2S from the first to the sixth pentad, respectively. Generally, the multi-layer Transformer-Seq2Seq-DNN model shows excellent potential for sub-seasonal predictions of summer precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate system anomalies and intensified human disturbances have different impacts on the hydrological cycle at different scales, chiefly leading to prominent spatio-temporal heterogeneities in precipitation distributions. It is of great significance to accurately detect the non-stationary changes of precipitation. Focusing on the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River basin which is considered as the key ecological barrier in northern China, the best probabilistic model with time-varying moments was established to fit the wet-season precipitation series from 1988 to 2017 for 38 meteorological stations. Considering four three-parameter distributions, time was used as covariate to describe the linear or nonlinear change of each parameter, and model optimization was performed by Akaike Information Criterion. Combined with conventional methods including the Trend-Free Pre-Whitening Mann–Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimator, the non-stationary behaviors of wet-season precipitation variability were quantitatively captured. Results showed that the generalized gamma distribution performed best in fitting the wet-season precipitation series in the study area, characterized with high skewness and heavy tails. The non-stationary characteristics of the wet-season precipitation were obvious in most areas during the past 30 years, especially in the central region. The non-stationarities of wet-season precipitation manifested in a downward trend in the mean value, an increase in dispersion degree and significant changes in distribution shape with time, consequently adding the uncertainty to wet-season precipitation process and raising the risk of extreme conditions. The findings of this study provide scientific references to water resources management, drought resistance, and disaster reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in precipitation exert an enormous impact on human life, and it is of vital importance to study regular patterns of meteorological and hydrological events. In order to explore the changing spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation amounts, precipitation extremes and precipitation concentration in Jiangxi province in southeast China between 1960 and 2008, several precipitation indices series were analysed using the Mann-Kendall test in this study. Our results indicate remarkable differences among the stations with negative and positive precipitation trends at the annual, seasonal and monthly scales, significant increasing trends are mainly found during January, August, winter and summer, while significant decreasing trends mostly are observed during October and autumn. For precipitation extremes, most precipitation indices suggest that both the intensity and the days of extreme precipitation are increasing; the mean precipitation amount, especially, on a wet day shows a significant positive trend. When it comes to precipitation concentration, the monthly rainfall heterogeneity shows an insignificant downward trend, while the contribution of the days with greatest rainfall displays an insignificant upward trend. Furthermore, the long-range persistence is detected for changing process of precipitation amount, extreme precipitation and precipitation concentration using the Rescaled Range Analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examining historical variations of hydroclimatic variables can provide crucial information about changes of water resources in a water cycle. In this study, the Mann–Kendall (MK) and Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) methods were applied to 56-year precipitation data collected at 8 measuring stations. These stations are located in Eastern Black Sea Basin (EBSB), which has a significant amount of annual precipitation and hydroelectric potential in Turkey. This study has two objectives: (1) investigating possible changes in the monthly precipitation and (2) comparing the results achieved by a classical (MK) and one of the latest trend analysis methods presented in the literature (IPTA). Based on the results, MK achieved no trend for most of months, while it reached an increasing trend for March at most of the stations. Likewise, IPTA determined an increasing trend for March precipitation. However, an increasing/decreasing trend was obtained by IPTA for most of the months and stations. In other words, comparing the trend analysis results obtained by IPTA and MK indicates a significant discrepancy between the numbers of months with detected trends primarily because the former is relatively more sensitive in trend identification. To be more precise, IPTA and MK determined trends in approximately 81.25% and 12.5% of all months, respectively. Furthermore, the former identified quite the same trends in every month which the latter reported a trend. Moreover, the polygon of the mean and standard deviation graphs developed by IPTA provides a year cycle, which brings about useful information for water utility sectors and decision makers of the study area. Finally, the findings of this study contribute to a large amount of research that attempts to explore spatio-temporal variations of hydroclimatic variables around the globe not only to enhance humans' knowledge about changes in a water cycle but also assess climate change impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatio-temporal trends of rainfall during the last 119 years (1901 to 2019) in different meteorological sub-divisions of India were analyzed using gridded rainfall data. Innovative trend analysis (ITA) was performed for detecting the trends in seasonal and annual rainfall. The results of long-term trends and their magnitudes obtained from the ITA method were compared with traditional Mann-Kendall (M-K), modified Mann-Kendall (mM-K), and linear regression analysis (LRA) methods. Significant trends in seasonal and annual rainfall were detected in almost all the sub-divisions of India. The monsoon and annual rainfall showed increasing trends in most sub-divisions of the peninsular and northwest India, whereas decreasing trends were observed in the central northeast part of the country. Winter rainfall showed decreasing trends in most of the sub-divisions of the country. Results of M-K/mM-K and LRA concurred with the trends detected by ITA. However, the ITA is more sensitive in detecting hidden trends missed out by the traditional M-K/mM-K and LRA tests. This study will provide scientific reference for assessment and proactive mitigation of climate change impacts on water resources to manage the risk of climate variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wet and dry spell properties of monthly rainfall series at five meteorology stations in Turkey are examined by plotting successive wet and dry month duration versus their number of occurrences on the double-logarithmic paper. Straight line relationships on such graphs show that power-laws govern the pattern of successive persistent wet and dry monthly spells. Functional power law relationships between the number of dry and wet spells for a given monthly period are derived from the available monthly precipitation data. The probability statements for wet and dry period spells are obtained from the power law expressions. Comparison of power-law behaviours at five distinct sites in Turkey provides useful interpretation about the temporal and spatial rainfall pattern. As in temperate areas such as Turkey the rainfall amounts change mostly due to one-month-long dry or wet spells. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water scarcity has a destructive impact on the social and economic development around the world. The present study investigated the variations of drought conditions during 1961–2016 in the Zoige Wetland of Southwest China by adapting the Mann–Kendall (MK) analysis, the Theil–Sen slope estimator, continuous wavelet transforms (CWT), and the inverse distance weighting (IDW) algorithm. The partial correlation coefficient (PC) was also used to understand the causes of Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) characteristics from different climate factors. The results showed that the majority of the wetland had a drying trend with a − 0.142/(10 years) rate of SPEI on annual scale, while a 2–8-year significant period was observed on both annual and seasonal scales. In spring, the wetland presented dryness and had a tendency of mitigation except for the northeastern area. In summer, the wetland mainly presented humidity, but it had a drying trend except for the southern area. In autumn, the overall wetland was humid with an abrupt change towards dryness occurring around 1983 and the whole wetland showed a manifest drying trend. In winter, most areas showed drought while the Jiuzhi County and part of the southern wetland had an alleviating trend of drought. The decrease of annual SPEI was primarily due to the decrease in precipitation, the mean temperature increase, and relative humidity decrease that offset the reversed impact of wind speed decrease and sunshine duration decrease. The change of SPEI on a seasonal scale was the consequence of the significant change in precipitation only in winter. The results of this study would be of use for understanding the characteristics of climate variation and water resources management across the Zoige Wetland in a changing environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We measured air temperature at 14 sites with different land cover composition within the urban canopy layer of a mid-sized Brazilian city. The intensity (ΔT) of the urban heat island (UHI) was calculated using data collected above a lake and at an urban park as references. We investigated the spatio-temporal variability of ΔT during four contiguous days with varying weather. The first day was overcast and rainy, giving rise to a moderate UHI. The second day was sunny, which caused the diurnal ΔT fields to become heterogeneous, due to larger heating rates at sites with more man-made surfaces compared to natural surfaces. A high-pressure system observed on the last days brought cloudless skies, causing smaller ΔT during the day and greater at night. We hypothesise that the effect was due to the reduction of cooling via evapotranspiration caused by closing of the stomata as the soil dried out, which reduced the daytime temperature differences among the sites. The night-time effect was caused by stronger radiative cooling due to clear skies. The temperature within the park was always lower than over the lake, confirming that urban forestry is a more effective mechanism to combat the UHI. Introducing a park would be about sevenfold cheaper than building a city pond. Hence, green spaces are not only more efficient to combat the UHI but it is also a cheaper strategy compared to blue spaces. Moreover, vegetation delivers other benefits, such as removal of air pollutants, attenuation of urban noise, improvement of city aesthetic and their use as recreational spaces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge of rainfall variability is important for regional-scale planning and management of water resources in agriculture. This study explores spatio-temporal variations, trends, and homogeneity in monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall series of 62 stations located in arid region of Rajasthan, India using 55 year (1957–2011) data. Box-whisker plots indicate presence of outliers and extremes in annual rainfall, which made the distribution of annual rainfall right-skewed. Mean and coefficient of variation (CV) of rainfall reveals a high inter-annual variability (CV > 200%) in the western portion where the mean annual rainfall is very low. A general gradient of the mean monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall is visible from northwest to southeast direction, which is orthogonal to the gradient of CV. The Sen's innovative trend test is found over-sensitive in evaluating statistical significance of the rainfall trends, while the Mann-Kendall test identifies significantly increasing rainfall trends in June and September. Rainfall in July shows prominently decreasing trends although none of them are found statistically significant. Monsoon and annual rainfall show significantly increasing trends at only four stations. The magnitude of trends indicates that the rainfall is increasing at a mean rate of 1.11, 2.85, and 2.89 mm year−1 in August, monsoon season, and annual series. The rainfall is found homogeneous over most of the area except for few stations situated in the eastern and northwest portions where significantly increasing trends are observed. Findings of this study indicate that there are few increasing trends in rainfall of this Indian arid region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past decades, drought has become a major concern in Morocco due to the importance of agriculture in the economy of the country. In the present work, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) is used to monitor the evolution, frequency, and severity of droughts in the High Atlas basins (N'Fis, Ourika, Rhéraya, Zat, and R'dat), located south of Marrakech city. The spatiotemporal characterization of drought in these basins is performed by computing the SPI with precipitation spatially interpolated over the catchments. The Haouz plain, located downstream of these basins, is strongly dependent on water provided by the mountain ranges, as shown by the positive correlations between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in the plain and the 3, 6, and 12-month SPI in the High Atlas catchments. On the opposite, no significant correlations are found with piezometric levels of the Haouz groundwater due to intensified pumping for irrigation in the recent decades. A relative SPI index was computed to evaluate the climate change impacts on drought occurrence, based on the projected precipitation (2006-2100) from five high-resolution CORDEX regional climate simulations, under two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). These models show a decrease in precipitation towards the future up to − 65% compared to the historical period. In terms of drought events, the future projections indicate a strong increase in the frequency of SPI events below − 2, considered as severe drought condition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional dry and wet spell durations within a 15 year period are mapped for the southwestern part of Saudi Arabia for summer and winter. If the number of spells is plotted versus duration a straight-line results on semi-logarithmic paper for most stations. However, a few stations exhibit two or three different slopes showing the effect of local climate. Simple regression equations are proposed for the dry or wet spell duration at any station allowing the mapping of regional variation for the entire study area. Such maps are useful tools in the assessment of the spatial and/or temporal wet and dry period duration for the area between stations. Similar maps could be developed for other parts of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial and temporal variations in summer and winter extreme temperature indices are studied by using daily maximum and minimum temperatures data from 227 surface meteorological stations well distributed over India for the period 1969-2012. For this purpose, time series for six extreme temperature indices namely, hot days (HD), very hot days (VHD), extremely hot days (EHD), cold nights (CN), very cold nights (VCN), and extremely cold nights (ECN) are calculated for all the stations. In addition, time series for mean extreme temperature indices of summer and winter seasons are also analyzed. Study reveals high variability in spatial distribution of threshold temperatures of extreme temperature indices over the country. In general, increasing trends are observed in summer hot days indices and decreasing trends in winter cold night indices over most parts of the country. The results obtained in this study indicate warming in summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures over India. Averaged over India, trends in summer hot days indices HD, VHD, and EHD are significantly increasing (+1.0, +0.64, and +0.32 days/decade, respectively) and winter cold night indices CN, VCN, and ECN are significantly decreasing (−0.93, −0.47, and −0.15 days/decade, respectively). Also, it is observed that the impact of extreme temperature is higher along the west coast for summer and east coast for winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban areas are especially vulnerable to high temperatures, which will intensify in the future due to climate change. Therefore, both good knowledge about the local urban climate as well as simple and robust methods for its projection are needed. This study has analysed the spatio-temporal variance of the mean nocturnal urban heat island (UHI) of Hamburg, with observations from 40 stations from different suppliers. The UHI showed a radial gradient with about 2 K in the centre mostly corresponding to the urban densities. Temporarily, it has a strong seasonal cycle with the highest values between April and September and an inter-annual variability of approximately 0.5 K. Further, synoptic meteorological drivers of the UHI were analysed, which generally is most pronounced under calm and cloud-free conditions. Considered were meteorological parameters such as relative humidity, wind speed, cloud cover and objective weather types. For the stations with the highest UHI intensities, up to 68.7 % of the variance could be explained by seasonal empirical models and even up to 76.6 % by monthly models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the altitudinal variation of dominant modes of summer monsoon intra-seasonal oscillation (ISO) over the Northwest (NWH) and Eastern Himalayan (EH) region using (i) spatially scattered 133 number of station rainfall observations and (ii) latitudinal transect-wise (LT) rainfall variation, obtained from an observed interpolated gridded rainfall data for the period 1995-2004. The altitudinal variation of dominant modes of monsoon ISO were investigated by exploring the strong and weak phases of the principal components of 10-90 days bandpass rainfall data of June to September with respect to location specific station height. Investigation of frequency of days for light and moderate rainfall along with the occurrence of total seasonal rainy days has revealed existence of a rainfall maximum around 2100 m height for the NWH region. Similarly, the total seasonal rainy days of EH region was found to have maxima between 1100 and 1400 m height. Analyses of the spatially scattered station rainfall observation for the NWH region showed that the strong periods of ISO modes exist around 747.9 (±131.7) m and 2227.2 (±100.2) m heights. Over the EH region, the dominant modes of the monsoon ISO were found to be centred around 1200 m. Significant alterations of strong and weak phases of monsoon ISO as a response to altitudinal variation in the mountain surface were observed when latitudinal transect-wise variation of monsoon ISO modes were investigated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The linkage between changes in air mass distribution and temperature trends from 1971 to 2010 is explored in the Hudson Bay/Foxe Basin region. Statistically significant temperature increases were found of varying spatial and temporal magnitude. Concurrent statistically significant changes in air mass frequency at the same locations were also detected, particularly in the declining frequency of dry polar (DP) air. These two sets of changes were found to be linked, and we thus conclude that the heterogeneity of the climatic warming signal in the region is at least partially the result of a fundamental shift in the concurrent air mass frequency in addition to global and regional changes in radiative forcing due to increases in long-lived greenhouse gases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Taklimakan Desert is the source of most blowing dust events in China. However, previous studies of sandstorms in this region have not included data from the inner desert because of the difficulty in making observations in this area. In this study, the spatial and temporal variations of blowing dust events, including sandstorms and blowing sand, and its relations with climatic parameters in the Taklimakan Desert were analyzed using data from ten desert-edge meteorological stations during 1961 to 2010 and two inner-desert meteorological stations during 1988 to 1990, 1996 to 2010, and 1992 to 2010. The results identified two regions (Pishan-Hotan-Minfeng and Xiaotang-Tazhong) where blowing dust events occur on average more than 80 days per year. The regions with the highest occurrence of sandstorms, blowing sand, and blowing dust events were different, with sandstorms centered in the north of the desert (Xiaotang, 46.9 days), whereas the central location for blowing sand (Pishan, 86.4 days) and blowing dust events (Minfeng, 113.5 days) activity was located at the southwestern and southern edges of the desert, respectively. The occurrence of sandstorms generally decreased from 1961 to 2010, while the occurrence of blowing sand increased from 1961 to 1979 and then generally decreased. The temporal variation of blowing dust events was mainly affected by the occurrence of strong wind and daily temperature, with average correlation coefficients of 0.46 and −0.41 for these variables across the whole desert. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study was based on daily rainfall data of 48 stations distributed over the entire island covering a 30-year period from 1981 to 2010. Data analysis was done to identify the spatial pattern of rainfall trends. The methods employed in data analysis are linear regression and interpolation by Universal Kriging and Radial Basis function. The slope of linear regression curves of 48 stations was used in interpolation. The regression coefficients show spatially and seasonally variable positive and negative trends of annual and seasonal rainfall. About half of the mean annual pentad series show negative trends, while the rest shows positive trends. By contrast, the rainfall trends of the Southwest Monsoon (SWM) season are predominantly negative throughout the country. The first phase of the Northeast Monsoon (NEM1) displays downward trends everywhere, with the exception of the Southeastern coastal area. The strongest negative trends were found in the Northeast and in the Central Highlands. The second phase (NEM2) is mostly positive, except in the Northeast. The Inter-Monsoon (IM) periods have predominantly upward trends almost everywhere, but still the trends in some parts of the Highlands and Northeast are negative. The long-term data at Watawala Nuwara Eliya and Sandringham show a consistent decline in the rainfall over the last 100 years, particularly during the SWM. There seems to be a faster decline in the rainfall in the last 3 decades. These trends are consistent with the observations in India. It is generally accepted that there has been changes in the circulation pattern. Weakening of the SWM circulation parameters caused by global warming appears to be the main causes of recent changes. Effect of the Asian Brown Cloud may also play a role in these changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is of significant importance to investigate the spatial-temporal change in precipitation patterns due to its great effects on droughts, floods, soil erosion and water resource management. A complete investigation of precipitation structure and its distribution pattern based on daily precipitation covering 1960-2005 at 21 meteorological stations in the Wei River Basin has been performed. In order to comprehensively and objectively describe the changing pattern of precipitation, the cloud model is employed to quantitatively analyse the average, uniformity and stability of precipitation. Results indicate the following: (1) the occurrence of different precipitation durations exhibits a positive exponential curve with the decrease in precipitation durations, and 1-3-day events are the predominant precipitation events which have an increasing trend; (2) precipitation and its non-uniformity is increasingly reducing, while its stability increases initially then decreases; (3) mean precipitation reduces from southeast to northwest, and the precipitation of the Guanzhong Plain has a low uniformity and stability due to its location and increasingly intensifying human activities. The cloud model provides a new idea and quantitative measure for the evaluation of the uniformity and stability of precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated the trends in rainfall and temperature and the possibility of any rational relationship between the trends over the homogeneous regions over India. Annual maximum temperature shows an increasing trend in all the homogeneous temperature regions and corresponding annual rainfall also follow the same pattern in all the regions, except North East. As far as monthly analysis is concerned, no definite pattern has been observed between trends in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, except during October. Increasing trends of maximum and minimum temperature during October accelerate the water vapor demand and most of the lakes, rivers, ponds and other water bodies with no limitation of water availability during this time fulfills the water vapor demand and shows an increasing trend of rainfall activity. This study shows there exists no direct relationship between increasing rainfall and increasing maximum temperature when monthly or seasonal pattern is concerned over meteorological subdivisions of India, however we can make a conclusion that the relation between the trends of rainfall and temperature have large scale spatial and temporal dependence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extratropical impacts on tropical climates are one of the most exciting areas of meteorological investigation in recent times. The present study elucidates the seasonal impact of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on predominant tropical circulations such as Hadley and Walker. The velocity potential at 200 hPa is used to understand the spatio-temporal variability in tropical circulations in the boreal summer and winter seasons. The results show an intensification of seasonal velocity potential in the composite of the low phase of the SAM. The seasonal climatological values of velocity potential observed for the period from 1979 to 2012 are of lesser magnitudes than earlier findings. The convergence/divergence locations of tropical circulation have shifted from their mean positions in the alternative phase of the SAM. The low-level convergence in the southern hemispheric Hadley circulation (HC) is enhanced in the composite of the positive phase of the SAM; however, the SAM's effect on the HC is no stronger in the summer. Another interesting feature noted in the present study is the weakening of the Walker circulation associated with the positive phase of the SAM, which can influence the basic state of the tropical Pacific Ocean. The SAM's interannual variability exhibits a significant positive trend in winter. The study reveals that the positive phase of the SAM could be a possible explanation for the recent changes in the tropical circulation patterns; however, the variability in tropical circulation anomalies associated with the SAM should be noted on seasonal and monthly scales to understand the dynamical mechanism behind the relationship. The impact of the SAM on tropical circulation may continue in future decades, as this southern extratropical vacillation is predicted to remain in a positive phase due to the increase in greenhouse gases and the variability in ozone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial and temporal variability in daily maximum and mean average daily temperature, monthly maximum and mean average monthly temperature for nine coastal stations during the period 1956-2009 (54 years), and annual maximum and mean average temperature for coastal and inland stations for the period 1945-2009 (65 years) across Libya are analysed. During the period 1945-2009, significant increases in maximum temperature (0.017 °C/year) and mean average temperature (0.021 °C/year) are identified at most stations. Significantly, warming in annual maximum temperature (0.038 °C/year) and mean average annual temperatures (0.049 °C/year) are observed at almost all study stations during the last 32 years (1978-2009). The results show that Libya has witnessed a significant warming since the middle of the twentieth century, which will have a considerable impact on societies and the ecology of the North Africa region, if increases continue at current rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two distinct synoptic weather systems, cut-off lows and fronts, deliver most of the cool-season rainfall to the cropping regions of southern Australia. A comparative synoptic climatology of daily rainfall events over approximately five decades reveals both spatial and temporal variations of the dominant synoptic types. The rainfall characteristics and associated large-scale drivers differ between the two synoptic types. Understanding regional rainfall depends on understanding these differences. Cut-off lows contribute one half of growing season rainfall in southeast Australia, while frontal systems associated with Southern Ocean depressions contribute about a third. The proportions are reversed in the Central Wheat Belt (CWB) of Western Australia where Southern Ocean fronts are the dominant source of growing season rainfall. In the southern island state of Tasmania, topography strongly influences the outcome with cut-off lows contributing about half the rainfall near the east coast and fronts dominating a short distance to the west. Cut-off lows generally contribute their highest proportion of rainfall in the austral autumn and spring while frontal rainfall is at its maximum in late winter. Cut-off low rainfall contributes more strongly in percentage terms to the recent decline in rainfall. The distribution of synoptic types is explained by the dominant long-wave structure in the winter half of the year. The major trough near Western Australia favours frontogenesis to the southwest of the CWB but fronts moving out of the region encounter a persistent meridional ridge in the Tasman Sea where there is a high frequency of blocking events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The monthly precipitation data from 29 synoptic stations for the period 1946-2012 were analyzed using a number of different multivariate statistical analysis methods to investigate the spatial variability and temporal patterns of precipitation across Serbia. R-mode principal component analysis was used to study the spatial variability of the precipitation. Three distinct sub-regions were identified by applying the agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis to the two component scores: C1 includes the north and the northeast part of Serbia, while C2 includes the western part of Central Serbia and southwestern part of Serbia and C3 includes central, east, south and southeast part of Serbia. The analysis of the identified sub-regions indicated that the monthly and seasonal precipitation in sub-region C2 had the values above average, while C1 and C3 had the precipitation values under average. The analysis of the linear trend of the mean annual precipitation showed an increasing trend for the stations located in Serbia and three sub-regions. From the result of this analysis, one can plan land use, water resources and agricultural production in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Daily precipitation data from 595 stations are analyzed based on regionalization to investigate changing properties of precipitation regimes across the entire China. The results indicate that the northwestern China is characterized by increasing monthly precipitation. The abrupt increase of precipitation is after early 1980s and early 1990s in the western arid zone and Qinghai-Tibet plateau, respectively. Other climate zones are dominated by decreasing precipitation regimes in autumn and increasing precipitation regimes in winter, and it is particularly true in the southwestern, southern and central China, showing seasonal shifts of precipitation changes. Besides, weak precipitation regimes are decreasing and strong precipitation regimes are increasing, and it is particularly the case in the southwestern, southern and central China, implying intensifying hydrological cycle reflected by precipitation changes in these regions. This study steps further into different hydrological responses within different regions of China to climate changes and will be relevant in regional management of agriculture development and water resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northwest China is the driest region in China and the regional climate fluctuated dramatically during the last century. Aridity index, as the ratio between potential evapotranspiration and precipitation, is a good indicator to represent regional climate character. In this study, the change and attribution of the aridity index was investigated in northwest China using the observed climate data from 80 national meteorological stations during 1960-2010. The spatial and temporal variabilities of the aridity index shows that the annual aridity index decreased significantly ( P < 0.05) by 0.048 year, indicating that northwest China became wetter from 1960 to 2010. A differentiation equation method was used to attribute the change in aridity index to climate variables. The results indicate that the aridity index was most sensitive to the change in precipitation, followed by vapor pressure, solar radiation, wind speed, and air temperature. Increase in air temperature should have led to an increase in aridity index, but this effect had been offset by the increase in precipitation and vapor pressure and the decrease in wind speed. Increasing precipitation, which contributed 91.7 % of the decrease in the aridity index, was the dominant factor to the decrease in the aridity index in northwest China from 1960 to 2010. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to compare several imputation methods to complete the missing values of spatio-temporal meteorological time series. To this end, six imputation methods are assessed with respect to various criteria including accuracy, robustness, precision, and efficiency for artificially created missing data in monthly total precipitation and mean temperature series obtained from the Turkish State Meteorological Service. Of these methods, simple arithmetic average, normal ratio (NR), and NR weighted with correlations comprise the simple ones, whereas multilayer perceptron type neural network and multiple imputation strategy adopted by Monte Carlo Markov Chain based on expectation-maximization (EM-MCMC) are computationally intensive ones. In addition, we propose a modification on the EM-MCMC method. Besides using a conventional accuracy measure based on squared errors, we also suggest the correlation dimension (CD) technique of nonlinear dynamic time series analysis which takes spatio-temporal dependencies into account for evaluating imputation performances. Depending on the detailed graphical and quantitative analysis, it can be said that although computational methods, particularly EM-MCMC method, are computationally inefficient, they seem favorable for imputation of meteorological time series with respect to different missingness periods considering both measures and both series studied. To conclude, using the EM-MCMC algorithm for imputing missing values before conducting any statistical analyses of meteorological data will definitely decrease the amount of uncertainty and give more robust results. Moreover, the CD measure can be suggested for the performance evaluation of missing data imputation particularly with computational methods since it gives more precise results in meteorological time series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is one of the most detrimental natural hazards in Yellow River Basin (YRB). In this research, spatio-temporal variation and statistical characteristic of drought in YRB is studied by using dry spell. Two extreme series, including annual maximum series (AMS) and partial duration series (PDS), are used and simulated with generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized Pareto (GP), and Pearson type III (PE3) distributions. The results show that the northern part is drier than the southern part of YRB. Besides, the maximum dry spell usually starts in October, November, and December. According to the trend analysis, mean maximum length of dry spell (MxDS) shows a negative trend in most stations. From the L-moments and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test method, it can be found that GEV model can better fit AMS while GP and PE3 can better fit PDS. Moreover, the quantiles from optimal model of AMS and PDS depict a similar distribution with values increases from south to north. The spatial distribution of scale and location parameters of GEV model for AMS shows a south-to-north gradient, while the distribution of shape parameter is a little irregularity. Furthermore, based on the linear correlation analysis, there is an evident linear relation between location and scale parameters with mean and standard variation of MxDS, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the occurrence of abrupt changes in a total of 35 different proxy records from the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere for the last ~1,500 years. The proxy records include ice-core δO, speleothem, tree ring width/density, marine sediment and lake sediment records with annual, sub-decadal or decadal resolutions. The aim is to explore the spatio-temporal distribution of abrupt climate changes using a kink point analysis technique. A clustering of warm kink points (the kink points with the highest temperatures) around AD 1000 appears corresponding to the Medieval Warm Period and indicates a geographically widespread temperature peak at that time. Kink points around AD 1000 are somewhat more numerous on higher latitudes than on lower latitudes. There are some tendencies for the coldest kink points (the kink points with the lowest temperatures) to be clustered in the ninetenth century, but they are generally more unevenly spaced in time than the warm peaks around AD 1000. The relative lack of kink points detected during the 1500 s-1700 s, likely the coldest part of the Little Ice Age, implies that this cold period was relatively stable and without abrupt events. A possible cluster of kink points on lower latitudes in the early ninth century is also found. No clear difference in the timing of kink points between the different proxy types can be observed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trees form a significant part of the urban vegetation. Their meteorological and climatological effects at all scales in urban environments make them a flexible tool for creating a landscape oriented to the needs of an urban dweller. This study aims at quantifying the spatio-temporal patterns of canopy temperature ( T) and canopy-to-air temperature difference (∆ T) in relation to meteorological conditions and tree-specific (physiological) and urban site-specific characteristics. We observed T and ∆ T of 67 urban trees (18 species) using a high-resolution thermal-infrared (TIR) camera and meteorological measurements in the city of Berlin, Germany. TIR images were recorded at 1-min intervals over a period of 2 months from 1st July to 31st August 2010. The results showed that ∆ T depends on tree species, leaf size and fraction of impervious surfaces. Average canopy temperature was nearly equal to air temperature. Species-specific maximum ∆T varied between 1.9 ± 0.3 K ( Populus nigra), 2.9 ± 0.3 K ( Quercus robur), 3.2 ± 0.5 K ( Fagus sylvatica), 3.9 ± 1.0 K ( Platanus acerifolia), 4.6 ± 0.2 K ( Acer pseudoplatanus), 5.0 ± 0.5 K ( A. platanoides) and 5.6 ± 1.1 K ( A. campestre). We analysed ∆ T for a hot and dry period (A) and a warm and wet period (B). The range of species-specific ∆T at noon was nearly equal, i.e. 4.4 K for period A and 4.2 K for period B. Trees surrounded by high fraction of impervious surfaces showed consistently higher ∆ T. Knowledge of species-specific canopy temperature and the impacts of urban structures are essential in order to optimise the benefits from trees in cities. However, comprehensive evaluation and optimisation should take the full range of climatological effects into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop new techniques to summarise and visualise spatial patterns of coincidence in weather events such as more or less heavy precipitation at a network of meteorological stations. The cosine similarity measure, which has a simple probabilistic interpretation for vectors of binary data, is generalised to characterise spatial dependencies of events that may reach different stations with a variable time lag. More specifically, we reduce such patterns into three parameters (dominant time lag, maximum cross-similarity, and window-maximum similarity) that can easily be computed for each pair of stations in a network. Furthermore, we visualise such three-parameter summaries by using colour-coded maps of dependencies to a given reference station and distance-decay plots for the entire network. Applications to hourly precipitation data from a network of 93 stations in Sweden illustrate how this method can be used to explore spatial patterns in the temporal synchrony of precipitation events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

(1) The main objectives of this study are the spatial and temporal analysis of annual 24-hour extreme precipitation amounts for different return periods, and (2) the interannual variability of the frequency of month-to-month maximum rainfall using harmonic analysis. Long time series data from 110 well-scattered rain gauges are analysed using extreme values theory and harmonic analysis techniques. The results indicate that the Jenkinson solution is more appropriate than the linear Gumbel solution for the extreme value law. The maximum expected values of 180–200 mm are observed along the southern coasts of the Greek peninsula and in the islands close to the Turkish coast, as well as in the north–west parts of the country. The harmonic analysis showed that the highest percentage of variance for rainfall extremes explained by the first harmonic (PVR(1)) appears over the southern and south-eastern parts of Greece in association with the greatest values of the amplitude of this harmonic, therefore explaining more than 90% of the variation of the frequency of maximum annual 24-hour rainfall amounts. In contrast, for regions north of 38° N and especially mountainous regions, more harmonics (3–5) are necessary to describe the parameter under investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation division and climate shift in China were analysed using daily precipitation data from 486 stations for the period 1960–2000. A modified hierarchical clustering method was used to divide China into sub-regions that have a coherent annual cycle, interannual evolutions and long-term trends. A division with 20 grouping areas can well describe the anomalous regional features seasonally, and a division with 40 grouping areas can reach a relatively stable level, theoretically for the annual and summer precipitation in mainland China. Rapid changes or interdecadal transition points of the regional precipitation series are detected by a multiple timescale t-test method. For mean annual precipitation, the interdecadal shift from a low to a high level is found to occur around 1987 in the Xinjiang region and around 1983 in Northeast China. The transition points of increasing summer rainfall in the eastern Tibetan Plateau and the lower Yangtze River are centred closely about 1979. Changes in the double-decadal precipitation are also detected for the two periods of 1961–1980 and 1981–2000. An increasing trend in annual precipitation is mainly found in the lower Yangtze River valley, the Xinjiang region, and Northeast China. Decreasing annual precipitation is mainly situated from the middle Yangtze River to the Yellow River. In summer and winter, the spatial pattern of precipitation anomalies shows two pairs of contrasting shifts with negative departures in North China and southern coastal China, while positive departures are found in the middle and lower Yangtze River valley and Northeast China. This pattern of regional precipitation shift in China is associated with southerly monsoon flow in eastern China and westerly flow in northwestern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]