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The primary objective of the paper was the determination of the atmospheric circulation favouring the occurrence of strong and very strong stress of the human organism due to heat stress in Poland. The paper was prepared based on data obtained from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute and the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR). The criterion of extreme stress of the human organism adopted in the paper covered conditions in which the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) value was higher than 32 °C. The research showed a statistically significant increase in half of the analysed stations and an increasing tendency or no changes in the remaining stations. Moreover, after 1990, conditions particularly strenuous for the organism were recorded (UTCI > 40 °C) over a major part of the territory of Poland. The occurrence of days with strong and very strong heat stress in Poland was related to the presence of high-pressure systems blocking zonal circulation. The research permitted the designation of three types in which the pressure field showed common features, but differed in the location of anticyclonic systems.

This paper introduces three quantitative indicators to conduct research for characterizing Northeast China cold vortex persistence activity: cold vortex persistence, generalized “cold vortex,” and cold vortex precipitation. As discussed in the first part of paper, a hindcast is performed by multiple regressions using Northeast China precipitation from 2012 to 2014 combination with the previous winter 144 air-sea system factors. The results show that the mentioned three cold vortex index series can reflect the spatial and temporal distributions of observational precipitation in 2012–2014 and obtain results. The cold vortex factors are then added to the Forecast System on Dynamical and Analogy Skills (FODAS) to carry out dynamic statistical hindcast of precipitation in Northeast China from 2003 to 2012. Based on the characteristics and significance of each index, precipitation hindcast is carried out for Northeast China in May, June, July, August, May–June, and July–August. It turns out that the Northeast Cold Vortex Index Series, as defined in this paper, can make positive corrections to the FODAS forecast system, and most of the index correction results are higher than the system’s own correction value. This study provides quantitative index products and supplies a solid technical foundation and support for monthly precipitation forecast in Northeast China.

This paper presents an analysis of the homogenised mean maximum (T max) and minimum (T min) temperatures. The data used in the analysis were collected at eight stations in the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina (Serbia) during the 1949–2008 period. The trends obtained from the slopes of the regression lines using the least square method show 0.9 °C/60 years for T max and 1.1 °C/60 years for T min; the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test was used to determine the statistically significant increasing trends of these two extreme parameters. In this paper, we analyse the influence of the Vangengeim–Girs classification of atmospheric circulation on the T max and T min trends in the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina (Serbia) using linear and quadratic models based on the least square method. Linear stepwise regression and the forward method reveal the highest dependence of T max and T min when the W or E circulation types are included in the model. Non-linear models show a greater contribution of T max and T min at W, E and C circulation types, respectively. The correction of the variance contribution of quadratic models ranges from approximately 16 to 44 % for T max and 32 to 38 % for T min.

The variability of occurrence of snow cover and the impact of atmospheric circulation on the snow cover occurrence in the period 1966/1967–2019/2020 in Poznań (Poland) have been examined. The implementation of the primary study objective covers the comprehensive analysis of the winter snow and thermal conditions using various indicators. This paper is based on daily data from the years 1966–2020 concerning the winter period. Winters in Poznań are highly variable and differentiated, considering the duration of particular seasons, number of days with snow cover, mean snow cover thickness, winter snowiness coefficient, or winter severity index. Negative trends concerning days with snow cover total snow cover depth winter snowiness coefficient and winter severity index in Poznań prove statistically significant. A higher probability of occurrence of snow cover was determined during cyclonic than anticyclonic circulation. The westerly and northerly types especially favoured the occurrence of days with snow cover. The increase of snow cover was associated with the northerly inflow mainly. Westerly types of circulation caused the decrease of snow cover predominantly.

This paper intends to explore rice yield fluctuations to large-scale atmospheric circulation indices (LACIs) in Bangladesh. The annual dataset of climate-derived yield index (CDYI), estimated using principal component analysis of Aus rice yield data of 23 districts, and five LACIs for the period 1980–2017 were used for this purpose. The key outcomes of the study were as follows: three sub-regions of Bangladesh, northern, northwestern, and northeastern, showed different kinds of CDYI anomalies. The CDYI time series in north and northeastern regions exhibited a substantial 6-year fluctuation, whereas a 2.75- to 3-year fluctuation predominated the northwestern region. Rice yield showed the highest sensitivity of LACIs in the northern region. Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and East Central Tropical Pacific SST (Nino 3.4) in July and IOD index in March provide the best yield prediction signals for northern, northwestern, and northeastern regions. Wavelet coherence study demonstrated significant in-phase and out-phases coherences between vital climatic variables (KCVs) and CDYI anomalies at various time-frequencies in three sub-regions. The random forest (RF) model revealed the IOD as the crucial contributing factor of rice yield fluctuations in the country. The multifactorial model with different LACIs and year as predictors can predict rice yield, with the mean relative error (MRE) in the range of 4.82 to 5.78% only. The generated knowledge can be used to early assess rice yield and recommend policy directives to ensure food security.

The Southern Carpathians (Romania) are one of the highest, steepest and most massive sectors of the Carpathian Mountains, with a strong imprint of the Pleistocene glaciation, which are widely affected by a broad spectrum of natural hazards (avalanches, rock wall weathering and landslides, flash floods). This paper focuses on the detection of recent changes in annual temperature and precipitation extremes over the 1961–2018 period based on observational data, discussing their spatial distribution and dependencies (on altitude, latitude and longitude). Trend analysis was applied on a set of 16 indices selected from the core indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The results show a significant warming trend, well reflected by the strong decline of frost days and icing days and a significant increase in absolute maximum temperatures, summer days and warm spell duration. Trends in precipitation extremes are more various, suggesting a climate drying trend, apparently stronger in the areas with a fast rise of maximum temperatures (evidence of coupled warming-drying climate change signal) and an increasing frequency of heavy precipitation events and resulted water amounts, in the areas affected by summer convection intensification. Except TNn with trends slopes revealing a winter nighttime amplification with elevation, high elevations (at above 2000 m) show only slight changes in temperature and precipitation extremes compared to the lower areas, explaining the general lack of elevation dependency of trends. Longitude explains 48 to 54% of trends in heavy precipitation indices. Changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation (e.g. intensification of westerly circulation, increasing frequency of blocking conditions), cloudiness and summer convection have been identified among the main factors influencing trend behaviour and their spatial distribution.

In this paper, a novel data-driven approach is used to investigate the presence of spatial differences in the dynamic linkage between temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. This linkage seems to be latitude dependent. The main findings of the study are as follows. In the latitude belts surrounding the equator (0°− 24° N and 0°− 24° S), the link seems very similar. On the opposite, the patterns of the temperature CO2 link in the Arctic is very distant from those concerning the equatorial regions and other latitude bands in the South Hemisphere. This big distance is consistent with the so-called Arctic amplification phenomenon. Further, it is important to underline that this observational data-based analysis provides an independent statistical confirmation of the results from global circulation modelling.

This paper investigates the linkage between large-scale atmospheric circulation and monthly precipitation during November to April over Iran. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is used to set up the statistical linkage between the 850 hPa geopotential height large-scale circulation and monthly precipitation over Iran for the period 1968–2010. The monthly precipitation dataset for 50 synoptic stations distributed in different climate regions of Iran is considered as the response variable in the CCA. The monthly geopotential height reanalysis dataset over an area between 10° N and 60° N and from 20° E to 80° E is utilized as the explanatory variable in the CCA. Principal component analysis (PCA) as a pre-filter is used for data reduction for both explanatory and response variables before applying CCA. The optimal number of principal components and canonical variables to be retained in the CCA equations is determined using the highest average cross-validated Kendall’s tau value. The 850 hPa geopotential height pattern over the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia, and Persian Gulf is found to be the major pattern related to Iranian monthly precipitation. The Pearson correlation between the area averaged of the observed and predicted precipitation over the study area for Jan, Feb, March, April, November, and December months are statistically significant at the 5% significance level and are 0.78, 0.80, 0.82, 0.74, 0.79, and 0.61, respectively. The relative operating characteristic (ROC) indicates that the highest scores for the above- and below-normal precipitation categories are, respectively, for February and April and the lowest scores found for December.

A severe, prolonged and harmful regional heavy air pollution episode occurred in eastern China from December 2016 to January 2017. In this paper, the pollutant characteristics and the meteorological formation mechanism of this pollution event, including climate anomalies, surface weather conditions, planetary boundary layer structure and large-scale circulation features, were analysed based on observational pollution data, surface meteorological data, sounding data and ERA-Interim reanalysis data. The results are as follows. (1) Five pollution stages were identified in eastern China. The two most severe episodes occurred from December 27, 2016 to January 4, 2017 and from January 8 to 12 2017. During these two pollution episodes, fine mode particles were major contributors, and hourly PM2.5 concentrations often exceeded 150 μg/m3, reaching a maximum of 333 μg/m3 at Fuyang station. Gaseous pollutants were transformed into secondary aerosols through heterogeneous reactions on the surface of PM2.5. (2) Compared with the same period over the years 2000–2016, 2017 presented meteorological field climate anomalies in conjunction with unfavourable surface conditions (weak winds, high relative humidity, fewer hours of sunshine, high cloud cover) and adverse atmospheric circulation (weak East Asian winter monsoon and an abnormal geopotential height of 500 hPa), which caused poorer visibility in 2017 than in the other analysed years. (3) During the development of heavy pollution event, unfavourable surface weather conditions, including poorer visibility, weaker pressure, higher relative humidity, lower wind speed with unfavourable wind direction and less precipitation suppressed the horizontal diffusion ability of air pollutants. Furthermore, the unfavourable structure of the atmospheric boundary layer was the key cause of the rapid PM2.5 increase. The deep, strong temperature inversion layer and weak vertical wind velocity could have suppressed vertical motion and enhanced the stability of the near-surface atmosphere, causing the air pollutants to accumulate at low levels and exacerbating the air pollution problem. Finally, a persistent stagnant weather system with a weak geopotential height field of 1000 hPa and warm air advection at 850 hPa was the main feature of atmospheric circulation associated with the heavy pollution.

In this paper, we quantify the changes in precipitation distribution in south-western Poland between the periods 1891–1930 and 1981–2010. The average monthly precipitation totals available for 368 and 245 stations, respectively, are spatially interpolated and processed to calculate maps of differences and pluvial continentality indices for both periods. The maps are analysed against changes in atmospheric circulation and take into account the potential role of the mountain barrier of the Sudetes. The main findings are (1) winter totals generally increased in conjunction with a higher frequency of zonal circulation; it is more pronounced in the upper parts of the Sudetes due to orographic effects; (2) a decreased frequency of zonal circulation together with an increased frequency of southern flows has likely led to the reduction of precipitation in spring and autumn. These changes have led to a significant modification of the region’s pluvial regime, mostly by decreasing continentality features (especially in the Sudetes and the western lowlands). In addition, the strong sheltering influence of the mountain barrier is observed, driving the preservation or even the enhancement of the continental pluvial characteristics in the north-eastern to eastern foregrounds of the Sudetes. This leads to the conclusion that in areas where long-term observed trends or future projections of precipitation are ambiguous, there may occur significant modifications in regional characteristics, especially as a result of changes in atmospheric circulation modified by local orography.

The global circulation models (GCMs) are useful tools for simulating climate change, projecting future temperature changes, and therefore, supporting the preparation of national climate adaptation plans. However, different GCMs are not always in agreement with each other over various regions. The reason is that GCMs’ configurations, module characteristics, and dynamic forcings vary from one to another. Model ensemble techniques are extensively used to post-process the outputs from GCMs and improve the variability of model outputs. Root-mean-square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (CC, or R) and uncertainty are commonly used statistics for evaluating the performances of GCMs. However, the simultaneous achievements of all satisfactory statistics cannot be guaranteed in using many model ensemble techniques. In this paper, we propose a multi-model ensemble framework, using a state-of-art evolutionary multi-objective optimization algorithm (termed MOSPD), to evaluate different characteristics of ensemble candidates and to provide comprehensive trade-off information for different model ensemble solutions. A case study of optimizing the surface air temperature (SAT) ensemble solutions over different geographical regions of China is carried out. The data covers from the period of 1900 to 2100, and the projections of SAT are analyzed with regard to three different statistical indices (i.e., RMSE, CC, and uncertainty). Among the derived ensemble solutions, the trade-off information is further analyzed with a robust Pareto front with respect to different statistics. The comparison results over historical period (1900–2005) show that the optimized solutions are superior over that obtained simple model average, as well as any single GCM output. The improvements of statistics are varying for different climatic regions over China. Future projection (2006–2100) with the proposed ensemble method identifies that the largest (smallest) temperature changes will happen in the South Central China (the Inner Mongolia), the North Eastern China (the South Central China), and the North Western China (the South Central China), under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively.

In this paper, the surface and lower tropospheric temperature trends in Greece and their relationship to the atmospheric circulation for the period 1955–2013 were examined, updating the study of Feidas et al. (Theor Appl Climatol 79:185–208, 2004) for data observed during the 12-year period 2002–2013. The trend analysis is based on a combination of three statistical tests. The trends are now examined for all the seasonal time series, new atmospheric circulation indices were added in the analysis, and maps with the spatial distribution of correlation between air temperature and atmospheric circulation were constructed and analysed. The series updated to 2013 for 18 stations reveal a clearer positive trend than that found for the period 1955–2001 on both the annual and the seasonal timescales. The warming signal detected only in summer in the study of Feidas et al. (Theor Appl Climatol 79:185–208, 2004) has now intensified and spread in other seasons. This warming appears to be mainly caused by the very high temperatures in the last decade (after 2004) of the record. At the national scale, there is now a match between surface temperature trends in Greece and Northern Hemisphere (NH) but only for summer, spring and annual time series, which are the only time series presenting a statistically significant warming trend in Greece. Satellite-induced lower tropospheric temperatures now show a statistically significant tropospheric temperature warming trend for the period 1979–2013, for both areas (Greece and NH). Lower tropospheric and surface air temperatures for the same period (1979–2013) show a very good agreement, with differences only in winter and summer for Greece. The influence of atmospheric circulation on the temperature variability in Greece was also examined using two more circulation indices: the Eastern Mediterranean Pattern Index (EMPI) and the North-Sea Caspian Pattern Index (NCPI). EMPI and especially NCPI explain better now the temperature variance in Greece, principally in winter. This connection, however, is not only developed during winter, as expected, but is also present for annual and other seasonal temperatures.

This paper investigates possible linear relationships between climate, hydrology, and oceanic surface variability in the Pantanal region (in South America’s central area), over interannual and interdecadal time ranges. In order to verify the mentioned relations, lagged correlation analysis and linear adjustment between river discharge at the Pantanal region and sea surface temperature were used. Composite analysis for atmospheric fields, air humidity flux divergence, and atmospheric circulation at low and high levels, for the period between 1970 and 2003, was analyzed. Results suggest that the river discharge in the Pantanal region is linearly associated with interdecadal and interannual oscillations in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, making them good predictors to continental hydrological variables. Considering oceanic areas, 51 % of the annual discharge in the Pantanal region can be linearly explained by mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the Subtropical North Pacific, Tropical North Pacific, Extratropical South Pacific, and Extratropical North Atlantic over the period. Considering a forecast approach in seasonal scale, 66 % of the monthly discharge variance in Pantanal, 3 months ahead of SST, is explained by the oceanic variables, providing accuracy around 65 %. Annual discharge values in the Pantanal region are strongly related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) variability (with 52 % of linear correlation), making it possible to consider an interdecadal variability and a consequent subdivision of the whole period in three parts: 1st (1970–1977), 2nd (1978–1996), and 3rd (1997–2003) subperiods. The three subperiods coincide with distinct PDO phases: negative, positive, and negative, respectively. Convergence of humidity flux at low levels and the circulation pattern at high levels help to explain the drier and wetter subperiods. During the wetter 2nd subperiod, the air humidity convergence at low levels is much more evident than during the other two drier subperiods, which mostly show air humidity divergence. While the drier periods are particularly characterized by the strengthening of northerly wind over the center of South America, including the Pantanal region, the wetter period is characterized by its weakening. The circulation pattern at 850 hPa levels during the drier subperiods shows anticyclonic anomalies centered over east central South America. Also, the drier subperiods (1st and 3rd) are characterized by negative stream function anomalies over southeastern South America and adjacent South Atlantic, and the wetter subperiod is characterized by positive stream function anomalies. In the three subperiods, one can see mean atmospheric patterns associated with Rossby wave propagation coming from the South Pacific basin—similar to the Pacific South America pattern, but with reverse signals between the wetter and the drier periods. This result suggests a possible relationship between climatic patterns over southeastern South America regions and the Pacific conditions in a decadal scale.

In a previous paper, we have shown that long-term cloud and solar observations (1965–2013) in Bergen, Norway (60.39°N, 5.33°E) are compatible with a largely cloud dominated radiative climate. Here, we explicitly address the relationship between the large scale circulation over Europe and local conditions in Bergen, identifying specific circulation shifts that have contributed to the observed cloud and solar variations. As a measure of synoptic weather patterns, we use the Grosswetterlagen (GWL), a daily classification of European weather for 1881–2013. Empirical models of cloud cover, cloud base, relative sunshine duration, and normalised global irradiance are constructed based on the GWL frequencies, extending the observational time series by more than 70 years. The GWL models successfully reproduce the observed increase in cloud cover and decrease in solar irradiance during the 1970s and 1980s. This cloud-induced dimming is traced to an increasing frequency of cyclonic and decreasing frequency of anticyclonic weather patterns over northern Europe. The changing circulation patterns in winter can be understood as a shift from the negative to the positive phase of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation. A recent period of increasing solar irradiance is observed but not reproduce by the GWL models, suggesting this brightening is associated with factors other than large scale atmospheric circulation, possibly decreasing aerosol loads and local cloud shifts.

The three-cell model, including the Hadley, Ferrel, and Polar cells in each of two hemispheres, has been accepted for a long time and the strongest Hadley cell has been used to study the climate change in recent years. However, two questions, why the upper level flow of Ferrel cell does not match observations and how many cells exist in the two polar regions, still exist. Using three different reanalysis datasets for the last 30 years, this paper showed that there might be an additional cell in each of two polar regions. The analyses of meridional-vertical section streamline (MSS), meridional-mass stream function (MSF), and climatic vertical velocity provide some evidences to support the existence of the new Arctic and Antarctic cells located in the troposphere. Thus, an eight-cell model in the global troposphere is proposed in this study. The maximum intensity of the Hadley cell in the boreal winter indicated by MSF in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is stronger than that of the Ferrel cell for about 4.8 times, so the upper level northeasterly wind of Ferrel cell is too weak to be detected when compared with the stronger southwesterly wind of the Hadley cell.

Long instrumental records of meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation are very useful for studying regional climate in the past, present, and future. They can also be useful for understanding the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation processes on the regional climate. This paper investigates the monthly, winter, and annual temperature time series obtained from the instrumental records in Zagreb, Croatia, for the period 1864–2010. Using wavelet analysis, the dominant modes of variability in these temperature series are identified, and the time intervals over which these modes may persist are delineated. The results reveal that all three temperature records exhibit low-frequency variability with a dominant periodicity at around 7.7 years. The 7.7-year cycle has also been observed in the temperature data recorded at several other stations in Europe, especially in Northern and Western Europe, and may be linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and/or solar/geomagnetic activity.

In this paper, the daily precipitation data measured at 58 meteorological stations were used, and the spatial and temporal variability of daily precipitation and precipitation extrema in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) during 1958–2007 was investigated using the indicator of discrete wavelet entropy; then, the urbanization effects were further analyzed. Results indicate that the daily precipitation variability in YRD, especially in the mid YRD with highly urbanized city clusters, is determined by the comprehensive impacts of atmospheric circulation, urbanizations, and the Taihu Lake. Compared with the results in 1958–1985, the variability of daily precipitation and precipitation extrema becomes more complex in 1986–2007, and daily precipitation variability is more complex in the mid YRD relative to the north and south. The precipitation extrema with bigger magnitudes show more complex variability. Urbanizations cause more complexity and fluctuations of daily precipitation in the mid YRD in 1986–2007, reflecting more uncertainty of daily precipitation variability, while the urbanization effects vary with regions and precipitation magnitudes. The variability of precipitation extrema with maximum values is mainly determined by natural atmospheric circulation but has little relationship with urbanizations; however, the variability of those precipitation extrema with general values is determined by both urbanizations and the Taihu Lake in YRD over the last three decades.

This paper analyzes the influence of circulation anomalies on the magnitude of minimum air temperature (T min) at a daily scale in two important agricultural valleys of Chile (Maipo and Casablanca) during the period 2001–2007. A statistical classification of synoptic fields was performed, resulting in eight circulation patterns (CPs, 84 % of explained variance). The corresponding anomalies of T min (ATmin) of each CP were analyzed in order to understand their synoptic-scale forcing mechanisms. Results showed a direct association between ATmin and the synoptic structure. The average weakening in sea level pressure (SLP) yields positive ATmin, while negative ATmin is associated with a strengthening in SLP. In the latter case, it was also found that a synoptic structure (10.2 % of frequency) corresponding to a migratory high-pressure system passing eastward across the Andes led to the lowest ATmin and a higher probability of frost in both valleys (22 % on average) in winter and springtime.

Regime-dependent evaluation is a relatively new approach to assess model performance. It consists of classifying the model biases according to a discrete number of regimes and evaluating model output within each regime. In this paper, the regimes are firstly defined by the large-scale atmospheric circulation, based on the objective Jenkinson-Collison classification technique which distinguishes synoptic patterns by strength, direction and vorticity of the geostrophic flow. Eight directional and two vorticity circulation regimes (circulation types) are specified. In this way, it is possible to quantify the model performance for cases with for example westerly winds only, or with cyclonic circulation only. A second regime classification is based on temperature, which allows for detection of temperature-dependent model performance. Modelled accumulated precipitation (mm/6 h) is evaluated with rain gauges for the years 2007 and 2008. Two variants of the COSMO model are evaluated: a fine-resolution version (2.8 km, COSMO-DE) and a coarse-resolution version (7 km, COSMO-EU). In COSMO-EU, a windward/leeward effect becomes visible since circulation is related to dominant wind direction, hence to windward and lee side of orography. In COSMO-DE, no circulation dependent but a height-related bias is identified and further explored, making use of temperature-dependent evaluation which unveils a positive model bias related to solid precipitation.

Climate change information required for impact studies is of a much finer scale than that provided by Global circulation models (GCMs). This paper presents an application of partial least squares (PLS) regression for downscaling GCMs output. Statistical downscaling models were developed using PLS regression for simultaneous downscaling of mean monthly maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) as well as pan evaporation to lake-basin scale in an arid region in India. The data used for evaluation were extracted from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset for the period 1948–2000 and the simulations from the third-generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) for emission scenarios A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT for the period 2001–2100. A simple multiplicative shift was used for correcting predictand values. The results demonstrated that the downscaling method was able to capture the relationship between the premises and the response. The analysis of downscaling models reveals that (1) the correlation coefficient for downscaled versus observed mean maximum temperature, mean minimum temperature, and pan evaporation was 0.94, 0.96, and 0.89, respectively; (2) an increasing trend is observed for Tmax and Tmin for A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios, whereas no trend is discerned with the COMMIT scenario; and (3) there was no trend observed in pan evaporation. In COMMIT scenario, atmospheric CO2 concentrations are held at year 2000 levels. Furthermore, a comparison with neural network technique shows the efficiency of PLS regression method.

This paper presents a novel statistical downscaling method based on a non-linear classification technique known as self-organizing maps (SOMs) and has therefore been named SOM-SD. The relationship between large-scale atmospheric circulation and local-scale surface variable was constructed in a relatively simple and transparent manner. For a specific atmospheric state, an ensemble of possible values was generated for the predictand following the Monte Carlo method. Such a stochastic simulation is essential to explore the uncertainties of climate change in the future through a series of random re-sampling experiments. The novel downscaling method was evaluated by downscaling daily precipitation over Southeast Australia. The large-scale predictors were extracted from the daily NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data, while the predictand was high-resolution gridded daily observed precipitation (1958–2008) from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The results showed that the method works reasonably well across a variety of climatic zones in the study area. Overall, there was no particular zone that stands out as a climatic entity where the downscaling skill in reproducing all statistical indices was consistently lower or higher across seasons than the other zones. The method displayed a high skill in reproducing not only the climatologic statistical properties of the observed precipitation, but also the characteristics of the extreme precipitation events. Furthermore, the model was able to reproduce, to a certain extent, the inter-annual variability of precipitation characteristics.

The paper discusses the impact of atmospheric circulation on the occurrence of various types of precipitation. A 146-year-long precipitation record from Kraków spanning the period 1863-2008 was used alongside a calendar prepared by Niedźwiedź (1981, 2009) describing circulation types covering the period 1873-2008 and air masses and atmospheric fronts covering the period 1951-2008 in southern Poland. The influence of atmospheric circulation on precipitation was measured using the frequency, conditional probability and average daily totals of precipitation. Circulation types, air masses and atmospheric fronts exerted influences on precipitation as a result of the seasonal variations of the thermal and moisture properties of air masses. The impact is best expressed by circulation types as these combine the aspect of cyclonicity/anticyclonicity with that of the direction of air advection, the two elements which determine the physical properties of the air. On average, liquid precipitation prevailed in all circulation types, except the Ea type in which snowfall dominated over liquid precipitation. Depending on the season, one of the three types of circulation, Wa, Wc and Bc, were shown to coincide with the greatest amount of liquid and thunderstorm precipitation. There was no single dominant circulation type for mixed precipitation or snowfall. In summer, the circulation types Nc, NEc, Cc and Bc were the most favourable to liquid and thunderstorm precipitation in terms of both probability and totals. In winter, snowfall was the most favoured by the Ec type. Frontal precipitation was twice as likely to occur as air mass precipitation, with the exception of snowfall which was predominantly an air mass type of precipitation in terms of probability, but its greatest totals were recorded on atmospheric fronts.

The aim of this paper is to introduce a new conditional statistical model for generating daily precipitation time series. The generated daily precipitation can thus be used for climate change impact studies, e.g., crop production, rainfall–runoff, and other water-related processes. It is a stochastic model that links local rainfall events to a continuous atmospheric predictor, moisture flux, in addition to classified atmospheric circulation patterns. The coupled moisture flux is proved to be capable of capturing continuous property of climate system and providing extra information to determine rainfall probability and rainfall amount. The application was made to simultaneously downscale daily precipitation at multiple sites within the Rhine River basin. The results show that the model can well reproduce statistical properties of daily precipitation time series. Especially for extreme rainfall events, the model is thought to better reflect rainfall variability compared to the pure CP-based downscaling approach.

Landscape heterogeneity that causes surface flux variability plays a very important role in triggering mesoscale atmospheric circulations and convective weather processes. In most mesoscale numerical models, however, subgrid-scale heterogeneity is somewhat smoothed or not adequately accounted for, leading to artificial changes in heterogeneity patterns (e.g., patterns of land cover, land use, terrain, and soil types and soil moisture). At the domain-wide scale, the combination of losses in subgrid-scale heterogeneity from many adjacent grids may artificially produce larger-scale, more homogeneous landscapes. Therefore, increased grid spacing in models may result in increased losses in landscape heterogeneity. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model in this paper, we design a number of experiments to examine the effects of such artificial changes in heterogeneity patterns on numerical simulations of surface flux exchanges, near-surface meteorological fields, atmospheric planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes, mesoscale circulations, and mesoscale fluxes. Our results indicate that the increased heterogeneity losses in the model lead to substantial, nonlinear changes in temporal evaluations and spatial patterns of PBL dynamic and thermodynamic processes. The decreased heterogeneity favor developments of more organized mesoscale circulations, leading to enhanced mesoscale fluxes and, in turn, the vertical transport of heat and moisture. This effect is more pronounced in the areas with greater surface heterogeneity. Since more homogeneous land-surface characteristics are created in regional models with greater surface grid scales, these artificial mesoscale fluxes may have significant impacts on simulations of larger-scale atmospheric processes.

Recent dry years (combined dry winter and summer months) within the UK (2005 and 2006) have enhanced concerns relating to long term water resources and future water provision in large conurbations. This paper examines the mechanisms responsible for precipitation variability for five different areas in Edinburgh (precipitation regions) using composite historic precipitation records for the period 1861–2005. Trend analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) were undertaken to examine precipitation variability over time and space. Annual correlation co-efficients were derived for relationships between precipitation areas, atmospheric–oceanographic variations and geographic parameters. Stepwise regression models were constructed to specify annual precipitation, through atmospheric variations, for each of the precipitation areas. Significant downward trends in precipitation (p < 0.05) were noted in two out of the five precipitation areas, with one principal component representing precipitation variability over Edinburgh and the Pentland Hills. Precipitation variability is best explained by fluctuations in pressure, altitude and proximity to coast. Precipitation trends cannot be explained by changes in atmospheric circulation patterns.

The paper examines the annual cycle of the mid-tropospheric easterly jet (MTJ) over West Africa against the background of many reviews indicating different locations and characteristics of the jet and considering it as a summer feature. NCEP–NCAR reanalysis zonal wind datasets for the period 1971–2000 and upper air datasets over the region are used. The results exhibit realistic spatial structure of the easterly jet. The long-term mean of the datasets suggests that the jet over West Africa is not only a summer feature but can also be found in winter with the same order of magnitude in the wind velocity at the core. The jet axis is located at about lat. 2° N close to the Guinean Coast in winter and at lat. 14° N in summer. The meridional oscillation of the jet suggests that as it advances northward, it maintains an altitude of 700 hPa in winter and transits in mid-spring to 650 hPa and reaches 600 hPa in summer. In the retreat, it displaces to 650 hPa at the end of September rather sharply to reach 700 hPa in October. The jet’s core has been observed to have a northeast–southwest orientation from season to season, covering a longitude of 29° from its southernmost to the northernmost positions.

A 117 year series of hourly precipitation data from Krakow, South Poland and the Niedźwiedź classification of synoptic weather types were the basis of a detailed study of diurnal precipitation variation and atmospheric circulation types. The analysis of the relationship between precipitation and circulation types was restricted to the warm half of the year (May–October). During this period precipitation ispredominantly liquid. This paper discusses the role of theCarpathian orographic barrier in the development of the 24 hour precipitation pattern.

“Koshava” is a gusty wind of changeable intensity, blowing from a south-easterly direction, over Serbia, Romania and Bulgaria. It is caused by the interaction between the synoptic circulation and the orography of the Carpathian and the Balkan mountains. This paper analyzes wind data measured at the Belgrade-Observatory during the longest period of consecutive days of “Koshava” which occurred from 14 January to 13 February 1972. Mean hourly wind speed data has been examined using spectral analysis. The power spectra are calculated using autocorrelation spectral analysis, the multi-taper method and wavelet transform. The maximum of which is about 122 h (5 days) corresponds to the time span of synoptic processes.

A revised 25-point Shuman-Shapiro Spatial Filter (RSSSF) has been applied to six atmospheric circulation models and multi-model ensemble (MME) predictions, and its effect on the improvement of model forecast skill scores of the Asian summer precipitation anomaly is discussed in this paper. On the basis of 21-yr model ensemble predictions, the RSSSF can remove the unpredictable ‘noise’ with respect to the 2-grid wavelength in the model precipitation anomaly fields and maintain the large-scale counterpart, which is related to the response of the model to large-scale boundary forcing. Therefore, this could possibly enhance the forecast skill of the Asian summer rainfall anomaly in the models and the MME. The potential improvement of model forecasting skill is found in the Asian summer monsoon region, where the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) has been improved by 7–40%, corresponding to the decreased root mean square error (RMSE) in the model and the MME precipitation anomaly forecasts.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle is the basis for this paper, aimed at providing a diagnostic outlook on seasonal sea-level variability (i.e. anomalies with respect to the Climatology) for the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI).

The purposes of this paper are to evaluate the new version of the regional model, RegCM3, over South America for two test seasons, and to select a domain for use in an experimental nested prediction system, which incorporates RegCM3 and the European Community-Hamburg (ECHAM) general circulation model (GCM). To evaluate RegCM3, control experiments were completed with RegCM3 driven by both the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NNRP) and ECHAM, using a small control domain (D-CTRL) and integration periods of January–March 1983 (El Niño) and January–March 1985 (La Niña). The new version of the regional model captures the primary circulation and rainfall differences between the two years over tropical and subtropical South America. Both the NNRP-driven and ECHAM-driven RegCM3 improve the simulation of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) compared to the GCM. However, there are some simulation errors. Irrespective of the driving fields, weak northeasterlies associated with reduced precipitation are observed over the Amazon. The simulation of the South Atlantic convergence zone is poor due to errors in the boundary condition forcing which appear to be amplified by the regional model. To select a domain for use in an experimental prediction system, sensitivity tests were performed for three domains, each of which includes important regional features and processes of the climate system. The domain sensitivity experiments were designed to determine how domain size and the location of the GCM boundary forcing affect the regional circulation, moisture transport, and rainfall in two years with different large scale conditions. First, the control domain was extended southward to include the exit region of the Andes low level jet (D-LLJ), then eastward to include the South Atlantic subtropical high (D-ATL), and finally westward to include the subsidence region of the South Pacific subtropical high and to permit the regional model more freedom to respond to the increased resolution of the Andes Mountains (D-PAC). In order to quantify differences between the domain experiments, measures of bias, root mean square error, and the spatial correlation pattern were calculated between the model results and the observed data for the seasonal average fields. The results show the GCM driving fields have remarkable control over the RegCM3 simulations. Although no single domain clearly outperforms the others in both seasons, the control domain, D-CTRL, compares most favorably with observations. Over the ITCZ region, the simulations were improved by including a large portion of the South Atlantic subtropical high (D-ATL). The methodology presented here provides a quantitative basis for evaluating domain choice in future studies.

There is a widely held view that the Pampa region (PR) dry and wet periods are predominantly a consecuence of the El Nino-Southern oscillation (ENSO) phenomenom. The current paper focuses on non-ENSO rainfall anomalies for the period 1948–2000, the more recent of which have had catastrophic consequences throughout the region. We analyze horizontal water vapor transport, pressure and circulation anomalies occurring in Southern South America (SSA) during this type of event. Positive and negative (wet and dry) extreme events during the rainy and dry seasons in the region were registered. Based on NCEP reanalysis data it was established that under rainfall deficit, anomalies of similar intensity occurred simultaneously in the PR and in central Chile, whereas under excess rainfall the anomalies were mostly confined to the PR. The existence of a cyclone-anticyclone pair in the anomalous circulation pattern over mid latitudes of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and straddling the southern portion of the continent maintains an intense and extense meridional circulation over the continental plains, which leads to the abnormal values in moisture transport and rainfall rate. The atmospheric water balance equation calculated for the PR indicates that anomalous water vapor is carried in from the continental equatorial region and from the subtropical Atlantic, its magnitude varying in accordance with the season and the sign of the anomaly. Furthermore, evidence of the important role of transient terms corroborates their contribution to the anomalous total moisture flux divergence under rainfall deficit during the dry season. The mean sea-level pressure anomaly fields of the extreme cases were further examined by principal component analysis to discern those circulation features directly linked to rainfall deviations.

Although the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects one-quarter of the globe to a significant extent, scientific research in Bangladesh relating to ENSO is just beginning. The prime objective of this paper is to provide an improved description of the ENSO-related flooding variability in Bangladesh. Information analyzed for this study includes: i) locally available Bangladesh rainfall and flood-affected area data, and ii) globally available precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST), and atmospheric circulation data.

¶A new procedure for grouping the circulation types occurring during autumn and spring over an area is introduced in this paper. The procedure combines surface air mass characteristics affecting the area with the prevailing synoptic conditions. Factor and Cluster Analysis are used to derive the circulation types, based on surface meteorological data, as well as on surface pressure grid data. The methods are applied to Athens, Greece, using data covering the period 1954–1999. Eight circulation types for the autumn (September, October, November) and eight for the spring (March, April, May) are derived. Clusters presenting low-pressure systems are found to be generally fast moving, while anticyclones generally remain over the area for more than two days. Finally an interesting seasonal distribution is found from some weather types.

The monsoon is a global climate phenomenon. This paper addresses the seasonal reversal of atmospheric circulation and the transition of dry/wet spells in the monsoon regions worldwide. The NCEP/NCAR 850 hPa wind reanalysis data for 1950–1999 and the upper-tropospheric water vapour (UTWV) band brightness temperature (BT) data observed by NOAA polar orbiting satellites for 1980–1995 are used. In the tropics, there are three large wet-UTWV centres. The summer monsoon in the subtropics can be defined as the expansion of these centres associated with the influence of cross-equatorial flows. Specifically, the dry/wet spell transition is determined by the BT values that are smaller than 244 K. The regions of the South and North African monsoons, the Asian-northwest Pacific and Australian-Southwest Pacific monsoons, and the North and South American monsoons are examined with a focus on the dry/wet spell transition and stream field features. Findings suggest that the summer monsoons over many subtropical regions can be defined by both cross-equatorial flows and dry/wet spell transitions. In the mid- and low-latitudes, there exist six major dry/wet spell transition regions with a dry or wet period lasting more than one month. The region of most significant change is located over the subtropical North Africa–Asia–northwest Pacific. The others appear over subtropical South Africa, Indonesia–Australia, southwest Pacific, the Mexico-Caribbean Sea, and subtropical South America. In addition, three regions exist where only one of the two indicators (cross-equatorial flow and dry/wet transition) is satisfied. The first is near the Equator where the directions of cross-equatorial flows alternate but a dry/wet spell transition is never experienced. The second is over North Africa where only the dry/wet spell transition can be found but not the cross-equatorial flows. The third is over the mid-latitude regions in North China, South Africa, and northern North America. These regions are influenced by cross-equatorial flows but the upper-tropospheric water vapour content is not as high as that in tropical regions.

The goal of the paper is to present and examine the method of classification of daily circulation patterns that allows (i) a fair comparison of groupings among different datasets (typically representing the observed climate and that simulated by a general circulation model, GCM) and (ii) huge datasets, common in GCM studies based on daily values, to be classified. The circulation classification method is shown to be a useful tool in GCM validation and analysis of climate change response, particularly in comparisons of (i) shapes of the mean type patterns, (ii) the frequency and persistence of the types, (iii) the probability of transitions from one type to another, and (iv) conditional surface temperature distributions. It is also shown that a simultaneous examination of multiple classifications is beneficial in eliminating subjectivity of any single classification and allowing a detailed inspection of differences between climates. The classification method is a modification of the T-mode principal component analysis (PCA). The T-mode refers to the input data matrix where gridpoint values are arranged in rows and daily patterns in columns. The classification procedure is applied to observed daily 500 hPa geopotential height patterns and those simulated by the control and ECHAM3 GCM runs.

In this paper an attempt is made to detect prolonged (of more than 24 hours duration) temperature inversions in the planetary boundary layer over Athens, to study their main characteristics and to find out the synoptic situations with which the inversions are associated. Given the close relationship between the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation and the occurrence, maintainance and decay of temperature inversions, a simultaneous three category classification of presented inversions and their respective synoptic situations is presented. The classification relies mainly on the similarities and differences in the formation and the maintenance of prolonged temperature inversions. To provide a record of the structure of the lower troposphere and the synoptic conditions favourable to the formation of inversions, mean ascents of temperature and dew-point temperature and mean wind profiles for the years 1980–1994 were calculated for each category into which a total of 297 cases fell. The main element of this structure which strongly affects the pollution of the lower troposphere is the prolonged temperature inversion. Also, for each category, mean 500 and 850 hPa heights and temperature charts, 500 hPa height anomaly charts, mean sea level (MSL) pressure charts and MSL pressure anomaly charts were drawn.

In this paper the preferential modes of non-seasonal variation of the 500 hPa height fields and the temporal variations thereof are explored at pentad time steps using S-mode Principal Component Analysis, maximum entropy spectrum analysis, single-channel singular spectrum analysis and the Kendall test of randomness.

Dispersion and transport over complex terrain have been recognized as an important research field. In July 1988, for studying atmospheric dispersion in a mountain area, a tracer experiment has been performed in south alpine valleys near a mountain (Campo dei Fiori, 1226 m.a.s.l.). In this area air masses circulation in wind breeze conditions is frequent. This paper analyses the meteorological situation and the tracer dispersion during those experiments. First a reconstruction of the three-dimensional wind fields overCampo dei Fiori area, taking into account the effects of orography, surface thermal gradients, atmospheric stability and energy of air masses, has been performed. Then the tracer concentrations have been evaluated by means of suitable models and the results have been discussed.

The paper presents a study of the Urban Heat Island Circulation (UHIC) in Goteborg, Sweden. Observations and recordings have been carried out from 1981 to 1986 during winter nights with anticyclonic weather conditions. The UHIC develops in general at a large negative net radiation balance, when the heat island intensity is at least 2.5°C, the wind speed less than 3 m/s and the sky is clear. If the weather conditions are favourable the UHIC starts 4–6 hours after midnight and stops a few hours after sunrise. An increase in cloud cover during the late night will not prevent the development of the UHIC. The UHIC layer extends to 40–70 metres in the vertical direction and to 10–13 km in the horizontal direction. The UHIC layer is capped by an inversion and the flow is almost independent of the direction of the regional flow. The UHIC is of great importance for the concentrations of air pollutions in Goteborg, as it transports both polluted and clean air. The study is a part of a clean air programme in the Goteborg area.