1. Mathematical computations on epidemiology: a case study of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)
- Author
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Saikat Batabyal and Arthita Batabyal
- Subjects
Statistics and Probability ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Population dynamics ,Epidemiology ,Computer science ,Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) ,Basic Reproduction Number ,92B05 ,92D25 ,medicine.disease_cause ,Models, Biological ,law.invention ,Persistence ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,law ,92D30 ,Pandemic ,medicine ,Econometrics ,Humans ,Computer Simulation ,Pandemics ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics ,030304 developmental biology ,Coronavirus ,0303 health sciences ,Mathematical modelling ,SARS-CoV-2 ,Applied Mathematics ,Mortality rate ,COVID-19 ,Outbreak ,Mathematical Concepts ,Extinction ,92C60 ,Transmission (mechanics) ,Quarantine ,Original Article ,Bifurcation ,Disease Susceptibility ,Basic reproduction number ,030217 neurology & neurosurgery - Abstract
The outbreak of coronavirus COVID-19 is spreading at an unprecedented rate to the human populations and taking several thousands of life all over the world. Scientists are trying to map the pattern of the transmission of coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). Many countries are in the phase of lockdown in the globe. In this paper we predict about the effect of coronavirus COVID-19 and give a sneak peak when it will reduce the transmission rate in the world via mathematical modelling. In this research work our study is based on extensions of the well-known susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) family of compartmental models and later we observe the new model changes into (SEIR) without changing its physical meanings. The stability analysis of the coronavirus depends on changing of its basic reproductive ratio. The progress rate of the virus in the critically infected cases and the recovery rate have major roles to control this epidemic. The impact of social distancing, lockdown of the country, self-isolation, home quarantine and the wariness of global public health system have significant influence on the parameters of the model system that can alter the effect of recovery rates, mortality rates and active contaminated cases with the progression of time in the real world. The prognostic ability of mathematical model is circumscribed as of the accuracy of the available data and its application to the problem.
- Published
- 2021
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