Search

This paper reviews the basic issues involved in identifying and providing solutions to transport problems. The paper argues that solutions focusing solely on investment in capacity or second-best solutions to pricing such as road pricing and free public transport ignore the essential economic relationships involved in transport. The paper provides a critique of investment and pricing and argues for a more integrated approach in which optimal pricing is a core consideration in any investment decisions. This is seen as particularly important in a post Covid-19 world where many of the fundamental drivers of transport demand have changed, and public authorities face significant constraints on budgets whilst new pressures such as commitments to net zero in the face of global warming threats add additional pressures. The paper offers some thoughts on the principles involved in establishing a more suitable structure for dealing with the transport problem. • Identifies the core elements of the transport problem as pricing and investment. • Reviews problems in implementing first-best pricing. • Critiques investment decisions in the light of wider economic impacts. • Considers changes brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic and the move to net-zero. • Offers a set of principles for reforming transport policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID-19 has represented a watershed in people's lifestyle. One important consequence has been the change in how people buy groceries online/offline that represent the most frequent shopping-related trip any household performs. Since this has substantially different transport and environmental implications, it is crucial to investigate what are the COVID-19-induced variations. This paper estimates both travel and environmental impacts grocery channel choice implies by comparing, in a diachronic fashion, the pre and during COVID-19 situation in Norway, considering alternative scenarios describing different service configurations for each channel considered. Stated preferences are used to estimate market shares for grocery purchase distinguishing between different channels: in-store, home delivery and click&pick. The robust comparative analysis between the two time periods is guaranteed by the use of the same methodological approach in the same geographical context. Results show that total emissions are lower during the pandemic and adopting a free delivery strategy not only increases home delivery market shares but also produces the lowest level of CO2 emissions regardless of COVID-19. The results obtained are particularly relevant in the "new normal" the world is experiencing both from a public policymaking perspective, when promoting transport-related interventions to curb emissions, and from a private standpoint, when customising market strategies to increase sales and profits. • COVID-19 has represented a watershed in people's lifestyle. • Investigating changes in how people buy groceries online/offline is important. • Stated preferences are used to estimate grocery market shares for different channels. • The paper estimates travel and environmental impacts pre and during COVID-19 via scenario analysis. • Results are particularly relevant for both the public and private sector in the "new normal" conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We aim to understand the effect of different information types on risk perception and examine the relationship between perceived risk and travel behaviour during a pandemic outbreak. A hybrid choice model structure, incorporating a multiple discrete-continuous extreme value model, was formulated and estimated to explore travellers' mode choice and usage changes. We used a risk perception map to visually explain which risk elements felt unfamiliar and uncontrollable to travellers. Virus variation , Potential sequelae , and Long-term coexistence of coronavirus with humans were perceived as the most unfamiliar and uncontrollable risk elements. The model results indicate that increased perceived risk tends to reduce travellers' use of public transport and increase the use of shared bikes and private cars. Reducing passengers' perceived risk is critical to encourage the re-uptake of public transport in the post-pandemic era. As travellers also show significant heterogeneity, governments should aim to design targeted intervention strategies to encourage different travellers to return to public transport when considering risk communication. • This paper examines the effect of different information on perceived risk and the influence of perceived risk on travel behaviour changes during the Covid-19 pandemic. • A risk perception map is used to find out risk elements that feel unfamiliar and uncontrollable to travellers. • A hybrid choice structure, incorporating a multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model is formulated and estimated to understand mode choice and changes in the frequency of usage of these modes. • As Travellers show significant heterogeneity, targeted intervention strategies for different types of travellers are required to encourage re-uptake of public transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Paris-Lyon line is the busiest High-Speed Line in Europe and has been open to competition in open access since December 18, 2021. The main objective of the paper is to explore the effects for users with respect to price and frequency compare with the existing literature. The analysis is based on a large database (n = 1243) collected by web scraping from September 2019 to October 2022. The method relies on a descriptive analysis with a similar route without competition (Paris-Bordeaux) in the comparison group. The results highlight an increase of frequency by 15% and a decrease in price by 23%. The prices charged by the newcomer are lower than those of the incumbent (−30% to −50%). The comparison with the control route suggests a positive effect on price that moderates the economic catch-up effect following the COVID-19 pandemic in an inflationary context. More specifically, SNCF appears to take a wait and see attitude to competitive pressure from Trenitalia. It has moderated its prices since the new offer was introduced and has maintained its trains. • Competition have a positive effect on user welfare. • Barriers to competition underscore the importance of public regulation for success. • Incumbent adopts a wait and see attitude in response to competitive pressure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While many countries have experienced more than one wave of the pandemic throughout 2020, Australia has been able to contain the virus in a way that makes it a stand out (with New Zealand) in the way that it has been contained, with an exception in Victoria linked to failed quarantine procedures for travellers returning from overseas. Through descriptive analysis, this paper builds on earlier papers by the authors on the Australian response, with a focus on the changing dynamics of travel activity, concern with public transport, and attitudes surrounding activity given the perception of risk of COVID-19 and the level of public support for regulatory intervention and restrictions on movement. We find that Australia continues to suppress travel, particularly that for commuting, that comfort in completing day-to-day activities continues to rise (with the exception of Victoria where confidence feel significantly), and while support for intervention measures remains high, there has been an erosion in sentiment. As with previous work, we discuss what this might mean for future transport policy, and attempt to draw lessons from the Australian experience. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After the widespread impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, all public transport, including urban rail transit, inevitably adopted a vigorous physical-distancing policy to prevent the disease from spreading among passengers. Adoption of this measure resulted in a substantial reduction in train service capability and required control of the risk contact exposure duration. Thus, this paper proposes the Skip-Stop Strategy Patterns (3S–P) decision-support model to incorporate social distancing constraints in train operations. The 3S–P model is a two-stage, multi-objective optimization model for scheduling train skip-stop patterns to satisfy the study's two main objectives of minimizing the average passenger travel time and unserved passengers. In the proposed model, the first optimization identifies the optimal train skip-stop patterns, while the second assigns these patterns to establish an hourly train schedule. The paper's case study uses data from the Bangkok Mass Transit System (BTS) SkyTrain Silom Line in Bangkok, Thailand and considers the 0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2 m social distancing schemes. The results reveal that the optimal train skip-stop patterns are superior to the all-stop alternative with, on average, a 13.4% faster travel time at the same level of unserved passengers. Furthermore, the non-dominated schedules from the second optimization decrease the numbers of unserved passengers given equal average passenger travel times. • Decision-support model proposed for urban train operation policy in COVID-19 pandemic. • Two-stage multi-objective optimization to schedule train skip-stop patterns. • Trade-off among social distancing policy, passenger travel time, and unserved passengers. • Skip-stop schemes have 13.4% faster passenger travel times than all-stop. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has presented a new wave of health, infrastructure and built environment challenges and opportunities. The COVID-19 pandemic induced environment presents a divide between the "new and old normal" with policy and planning implications for health, transport and general socio-economic growth and development. Multiple and complex nuanced transport matters cascade all geographic scales and pervade all sectors of the economy. The extent to which existing transport systems capacities are resilient, adaptive, and optimized for complete disaster planning, management and sustainability is questioned. This paper critically reviews how the COVID-19 pandemic has stretched the resilience and adaptive transport systems capacities in South Africa. A critical question interrogated is whether on-going policy and planning interventions constitute imperfect or perfect attempts at closing COVID -19 policy and planning emergent gaps. The paper makes use of South Africa as a case study, referencing the Disaster Management Act (No. 57 of 2002) and logical Disaster Management Act: Regulations relating to COVID-19 (Government Notice 318 of 2020), 1 1 As amended from time to time i.e., Disaster Management Act, 2002 (Act No. 57 of 2002), having declared a national state of disaster published by Government Notice No 313 of 15 March 2020, and extended by Government Notices Nos 646 of 5 June 2020. 765 of 13 July 2020, 889 of 15 August 2020, 995 of 14 September 2020, 1090 of 14 October 2020, 1225 of 14 November 2020 and 1341 of 11 December 2020, No. R. 15 of 13 January 2021 and No. R69 of 1 February 2021. with specific reference to the transport sector lockdown regulations in unravelling policy and planning implications. Drawing from the complex systems adaptive theory (CSAT), sustainability theory (ST), innovation theory (IT), transitions theory (TT), thematic COVID -19 transport planning and policy adaptation, mitigation measures in the South African transportation sector are discussed. Emergent lessons with respect to developing and advancing a new generation of resilient, adaptive, and optimized transport proof infrastructure and services including revising transport and related policies that navigates through various waves and cycles of induced pandemic and shocks is suggested. • The transport divide between the "new and old normal" planning and policy regimes. • COVID-19 transport complexities, challenges, and tensions in policy (re)formulation. • Questions whether policy and planning interventions constitute (im)perfect attempts at closing COVID -19 emergent gaps. • Emergent lessons for resilient, adaptive, and optimized transport proof COVID -19 infrastructure and services are suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We exploit daily information on flight traffic between 37 European countries from 2019 to 2022 to identify the drivers of air travel demand during and after the pandemic. By applying two-way fixed-effects regressions on daily data at the route-level, we find that the strict lockdown orders reduced bilateral flights by about 17% on average. Our results suggest that the fall in flight traffic from the first and second lockdowns was about 10% and 12%, respectively, while the third lockdown led to a massive reduction corresponding to 22%. The results also reveal that a one-unit change in the aggregate stringency index led to 0.2% decrease in flight frequency, while reducing the number of passengers by 0.7%. The empirical evidence suggests that a substantial change in travel patterns was explained by the spread of the virus itself, as well as voluntary actions based on individual preferences and fear of infection. The main findings of this paper have important policy implications for a more coherent response to any future virus outbreak as it affects airlines and the general economy. • We assess the drivers of bilateral flights and passenger demand during COVID-19. • European flight data observed from 2019 to June 2022 are used. • Lockdowns and stringent measures explained less than 50% of flight reductions. • Individual preferences and voluntary actions also matter. • Incentives for vaccination uptake and for reducing the fear of infection are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decision-making processes related to transportation systems are often very complex, belonging to the class of "wicked problems" in social studies. The literature and the media abound in examples of transportation planning "failures" including decisions made, delayed or withdrawn without any traceable motivations, public opposition, public opposition, extra costs/implementation times and outright cancellation, wrong traffic/revenue forecasts. Planning failures stem from several causes, including technical errors in forecasting predictable effects, lack of consensus, new governance cycles and inability to recognize the intrinsic uncertainty affecting some key variables. The underlying assumption of this paper is that the quality of the decision-making process critically depends on how the process is structured and managed. The paper proposes a conceptual model to represent and organize transport planning as a cognitive decision-making process with strong involvement of different stakeholders in various stages, accounting for different levels of uncertainty and including short- and long-term decisions options. The result is a planning process that allows for changes in objectives, strategies and decisions during different stages of the process itself, as is usually the case when different governance and socio-economic cycles succeed over time. However, the process maintains a form of procedural consistency and is intended to counteract the "Penelope syndrome", whereby decisions made under previous governance cycles are undone regardless of their merits and costs. The real-life implementation of the proposed model requires strong "political commitment" to an open and accountable decision-making process, a technical structure able to act as "process owner" coordinating technical and engagement activities, and a general societal attitude towards organized participation to public decision making. The proposed model was applied to the Regional Transportation Plan of Veneto in Italy where the above conditions applied. A number of lessons were learnt from that exercise: i) stakeholders' engagement revealed an important potential to manage uncertainty and increase consensus; ii) flexibility and robustness with respect to medium–to–high uncertainty levels already recognized at the time of the plan (immediately before the COVID-19 crisis) were an appreciated feature of the plan; iii) separation between mature decisions and those needing further analysis was a success strategy, reducing political "decision costs" (from naysaying) by delaying decisions still recognizing underlying needs; iv) reduced decision time (a largely bi-partisan vote in less than one year). • Transport-related decision-making process may lead to unsatisfactory results (failures). • The quality of the decision-making process is a key factor for a successful planning and design. • A novel cognitive participative decision-making model under uncertainty levels is proposed. • The application of the model to the Regional Transportation Plan of Veneto (Italy) is also discussed. • A number of lessons learned were derived. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of COVID-19 on air transport is unprecedented and some well-known airline brands may disappear as a result. Governments around the world have responded swiftly to cushion the financial impact by offering direct wage subsidies, tax relief, loans, etc. This paper explores the government's appropriate responses to failing airlines' bailout request by examining the case of Virgin Australia. Following the bailout policy principles established in the literature, we suggest that bankruptcy protection should be considered as the first solution to a failing carrier. A bailout decision should be guided by a set of principles and procedures, which should not be taken lightly. Our analysis also shows that the government cannot take a hands-off approach in the absence of private lenders and investors, as the costs to consumers and regional residents would be huge if the carrier could not get through the COVID-19 pandemic. A minimum level of assistance with conditions might be needed to maintain market competition. • This paper explores the government's appropriate responses to failing airlines' bailout request. • We study the case of Virgin Australia. • The possible solutions to save the failing airline are explored. • Bankruptcy protection can be considered as the first solution. • A strong analytical framework is needed to inform the government's bailout policy towards the air transport sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the Dutch policy reaction to the financial crisis in the public transport sector caused by Covid-19. Using the multi-level governance theory complemented with the notion of informal governance, the analysis explains the decision-making that defined a State-aid scheme to public transport operators following a process of consultation and concertation between state and non-state actors across governance tiers. To agree on a financial rescue package, these actors engage in front-stage and back-stage political interactions, constrained and enabled by formal and informal governance structures and practices. By analyzing how the interplay between the political mobilization of actors, policy-making arrangements, and existing polity structures shapes political alignment around the financial support scheme, the paper concludes that the crisis did not change customary governance and policy-making practices. Stakeholders sought their usual partners and followed existing routines in path-dependent ways to address the policy challenge brought by Covid-19. Despite being triggered by a major exogenous shock, the policy response to the crisis was driven mainly by endogenous forces; the decision-making mechanism remained the same and the network of actors did not shrink or expand. • Multi-level governance decision-making establishes State-aid scheme for operators. • Informal practices of consultation and concertation drive response to crisis. • State and non-state actors cross governance levels in front and back-stage politics. • Customary governance routines remain in place despite shock with crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the dual role of the transport sector in the Covid-19 pandemic: spreading the virus around the world and being most negatively impacted by the pandemic. This paper describes and analyzes the following: (a) actions taken by the governments and international community in order to control the spreading and to alleviate negative economic impacts including massive fiscal and monetary stimulus funding; (b) detailed discussions on the impacts of the pandemic on air transport, rail and bus transport, and urban transit, and major countries' responses to reduce the negative effects; (c) discussions on the positive effects of the pandemic on the environment and climate change by suggesting policy measures in order to make it sustainable over the long term. Finally, the paper addresses social acceptance issue of the behavioral changes necessary in the post-pandemic world, in particular reflecting historical experience of the Spanish flu case. We end the paper with some observations and discussion of the normative issues for a sustainable development of the transport sector. • The impacts of three Covid-19 waves on the world economies have enforced many countries to start large stimulus packages. • The negative impacts on transportation activities are severe for aviation, rail and public transit. • Car travel is on the way of recovering while biking rides are increasing and parcel services are booming. • It will be difficult for mass transport modes to return to previous Covid growth paths because of reduced confidence of passengers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reflects on the mobility experiences of women in African cities in COVID-19, based on research conducted both prior to and following entry into the COVID-19 'moment'. It draws on material collected during an ongoing action research study aimed at addressing the everyday transport and mobility challenges faced by young women living in poor peripheral communities of three African cities – Abuja, Cape Town and Tunis. The project has the specific objective of supporting young women's improved access to employment opportunities through trialling various mobility/transport-related skills interventions (based on prior in-depth analysis of mobility constraints). With the onset of COVID-19 some readjustments to the research focus and planned interventions became necessary. The research teams, together with an NGO partner, are now working to chart how young women's everyday experiences of mobility and transport - both as transport users and as transport sector workers - are changing as processes of lockdown and their relaxation evolve. The paper covers the period from early 2019 through to March 2021, and offers reflections regarding 'lived experiences' of mobility practice pre-pandemic, during the pandemic, and the potential longer-term mobility-related impacts for women resident in low-income neighbourhoods in a post-COVID-19 era. This leads to consideration of key policy lessons. There is potential for prioritisation of Non-Motorised Transport interventions towards a green restart that would benefit women (for instance through promoting women's cycling), and for growing women's participation as transport operators, even perhaps the usage of drones to aid women's safer pedestrian travel. But such interventions will require far greater representation of women in COVID-19 and wider transport decision-making entities than has hitherto been the case. • Mobility and transport experiences tracked prior to and after pandemic onset. • Peer researchers from study communities contribute key observations. • Post-pandemic Non-Motorised Transport intervention potential. • Need to grow women's participation as transport operators. • Women's representation in transport decision-making entities is crucial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Impacts of COVID-19 in maritime transportation and its related policy measures have been investigated by more and more organizations and researchers across the world. This paper aims to examine the impacts of COVID-19 on seaport transportation and the maritime supply chain field and its related issues in India. Secondary data are used to analyze the performance indicators of major seaports in India before and during the COVID-19 crisis. We further explore and discuss the expert's views about the impact, preparedness, response, and recovery aspects for the maritime-related sector in India. The results on the quantitative performance of Indian major seaports during the COVID-19 indicate a negative growth in the cargo traffic and a decrease in the number of vessel traffic compared to pre-COVID-19. The expert survey results suggest a lack of preparedness for COVID-19 and the need for developing future strategies by maritime organizations. The overall findings of the study shall assist in formulating maritime strategies by enhancing supply chain resilience and sustainable business recovery process while preparing for a post-COVID-19 crisis. The study also notes that the Covid-19 crisis is still an ongoing concern, as the government, maritime organizations, and stakeholders face towards providing vaccine and remedial treatment to infected people. Further, this study can be expanded to the global maritime supply chain business context and to conduct interdisciplinary research in marine technical fields and maritime environment to measure the impact of COVID-19. • With the outbreak of COVID-19, maritime industry accounting to 90% of the international trade has been impacted. • The major seaports of India handle about 60% of the country's total cargo traffic. • This paper examines implications of COVID-19 on Indian major ports by identifying patterns for quantitative performance data before & during the COVID-19 crisis. • This study explores & discusses expert's views about impact, preparedness, response, and recovery aspects for the maritime-related sector in India. • The results for quantitative performance data for major seaports in India indicate negative growth in during COVID-19 compared to pre COVID-19 period. • The expert survey result suggests a negative impact of COVID-19, and there is a need to develop future strategies by maritime organizations. • The overall findings of the study assist in formulating maritime strategies by enhancing supply chain resilience and sustainable business recovery process while preparing for a post-COVID-19 crisis in Indian maritime Context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the importance of incorporating online home delivery services (OHDS) into the concept of accessibility and marginalization. The authors propose a method to quantify access to OHDS and assess levels of inequalities in access to OHDS using data from OHDS providers in the pharmaceutical and food sectors, as well as from transport operators delivering parcels. The Västra Götaland Region in the West coast of Sweden is used as a case study. The results show significant inequalities in access to OHDS. Moreover, there are segments of population under a compound marginalization during the COVID-19 pandemic due to (i) limited accessibility to OHDS services, (ii) high incidence of COVID-19 cases in their area that makes physical visits to a store a risk activity, and (iii) high vulnerability (e.g., high share of individuals older than 65). These results reveal a need for the public sector to prioritize innovations in services that target specific clusters of the population that are vulnerable and marginalized, but also shows the imminent risk for some of these segments during the pandemic. • This paper discusses the need to extend online home delivery services (OHDS) by the concepts of accessibility and marginalization. • It proposes a method to assess the inequalities in access to online delivery services with quantitative data. • It compares access to online delivery services and demographics in the Västra Götaland Region (Sweden). • It discusses inequalities in access to OHDS and identifies population at higher risk during the pandemic due to limited access to OHDS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the COVID-19 outbreak, consumer behavior has been affected by the perceived threat of the pandemic and economic uncertainty. This paper aims to explore the dynamic effects of COVID-19, consumer sentiment, economic policy uncertainty, and fuel prices on travel behavior in the United States. Using updated daily trip data, the results show that consumer sentiment has a positive long-run impact on travel demand for air and auto, suggesting that a positive change in consumer sentiment can boost demand for these modes of transportation in the long term. Additionally, consumer sentiment has a favorable effect (1.34) on demand for long-distance trips, but it has a negative impact (−0.42) on the number of people staying at home. Economic and political shocks have a detrimental impact on demand for air and auto travel, suggesting that consumers reduce the frequency and cost of these transport services if they have pessimistic expectations about the future state of the economy and policy. However, in the short term, US travelers appear to be insensitive to shocks in consumer sentiment and economic policy uncertainty. Regarding the perceived threat of the pandemic, the results indicate that rising COVID-19 cases have a negative long-term effect on demand for air travel (−0.09) and public transit (−0.19), while they are positively associated with demand for auto travel (0.06). Similarly, the increasing number of deaths due to COVID-19 has led to a shift from shared-use mass transportation (air travel and public transit) to private autos and non-motorized travel, such as walking in the short term. • We examine changes in travel behavior and mode preferences during COVID-19. • Positive sentiment shocks boost travel demand for air and auto in the long run. • Economic and political shocks have an adverse effect on demand for air and auto. • COVID-19 cases are the main long-term determinant of demand for air and transit. • COVID-19 threat results in a modal shift from shared-use transport to personal transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influential role of health protocols in preventing the spread of the COVID-19 disease has led governments to seek effective methods for implementing these protocols in the society. Considering the importance of public transportation system in spread of viruses, this paper introduces and analyzes some methods of inspecting urban public transportation companies using system dynamics approach. First, the base model, which represents the status of a public transportation terminal, was created and validated using a system dynamics simulation approach. Then the impact of two penalty policies, including fixed penalty policy (FPP) and variable penalty policy (VPP) on the violations within the terminal was investigated. The simulation results show that the variable penalty policy significantly reduces the violations of passenger terminal drivers. Next, the extended model was developed which considered several terminals. Finally, by presenting two policies of fixed inspector assignment (FIA) and variable inspector assignment (VIA), the effect of four scenarios of combining inspection and penalties policies was investigated. The simulation results showed that combining the variable penalty and variable inspector assignment policies could significantly reduce terminal violations. Also, the implementation of this policy does not require an additional inspector. The results can help city managers to adopt appropriate inspection policies. • The inspection issue of transportation companies in the Covid-19 era is studied. • The systems dynamics approach is used for modeling and simulation. • The effect of four inspection and penalties policies scenarios is investigated. • Appropriate inspection and penalty policies can halve violations. • The results can help city managers to adopt appropriate inspection policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To understand the roles of different transport modes in the spread of COVID-19 pandemic across Chinese cities, this paper looks at the factors influencing the number of imported cases from Wuhan and the spread speed and pattern of the pandemic. We find that frequencies of air flights and high-speed train (HST) services out of Wuhan are significantly associated with the number of COVID-19 cases in the destination cities. The presence of an airport or HST station at a city is significantly related to the speed of the pandemic spread, but its link with the total number of confirmed cases is weak. The farther the distance from Wuhan, the lower number of cases in a city and the slower the dissemination of the pandemic. The longitude and latitude coordinates do not have a significant relationship with the number of total cases but can increase the speed of the COVID-19 spread. Specifically, cities in the higher longitudinal region tended to record a COVID-19 case earlier than their counterparties in the west. Cities in the north were more likely to report the first case later than those in the south. The pandemic may emerge in large cities earlier than in small cities as GDP is a factor positively associated with the spread speed. • This paper explores the factors influencing the COVID-19 spread speed and spatial pattern. • Frequencies of flights and HSTs are significantly associated with the number of cases. • The farther the distance from Wuhan, the lower the number of cases and dissemination speed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There exists a substantial amount of research on the impact that the COVID-19 pandemic has had on significant changes in the location at which work takes place, especially working from home (WFH). There has been, however, very little systematic consideration given to the relationship between the substantial increase in WFH and the responses taken by organisations in reviewing their office (workspace) capacity needs in the future, including a switch of the mix of utilising workspace in the main office(s) and satellite office locations. The main aim of this paper is to explore the extent to which levels of working from home and increased use of rented satellite office space will be linked to changes in the amount of workspace required at the main office that was used pre-COVID-19. Using data from 459 businesses for three periods for pre-COVID-19, April 2022 (25 months after the outbreak of the pandemic) and stated intentions for 2023, we develop a random effects regression model for the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Area in which we identify some of the influences on the downsizing or not of the main office(s) work space, and comment on what we see as the most likely scenario for WFH and work space in the main office and rented satellite office space under the 'next normal'. The findings can be used to inform future commuting travel as well as changes in land use activity at specific locations, including possible reallocation of existing office space to other activity uses. • Main office workspace needs in the 'next normal'. • Downsizing of office capacity in presence of working from home. • Role of Working from home and growth in satellite office space rental on main office needs. • New empirical evidence in Sydney, Australia. • Contrasts between pre-COVID-19, April 2022 and the future works space. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the stock market response of Japanese shipping firms on the COVID-19 outbreak. We adopt an event study method to investigate the announcement effect of COVID-19-related news such as the incident of largest numbers of cases in a cruise ship, the Princess Diamond on February 3, 2020 and the tight border closing by the Japanese Government on March 9, 2020. Our empirical results show that the negative abnormal returns are significant for both of these pessimistic COVID-19-related events. The negative return on the incident of Princess Diamond persisted for 30 trading days. Moreover, the negative abnormal return of port operations was stronger than maritime transportation after 30 days. Furthermore, we find that the tight border closing policy persisted for only eight trading days. Finally, we find that government policy responses are effective to mitigate negative announcement effects on COVID-related news post the tightened border control. • The negative abnormal returns in Japanese shipping firms are observed for pessimistic COVID-19 events. • The negative abnormal returns of port operations are stronger than maritime transportation. • Government policy responses are effective to mitigate negative announcement effects on COVID-related news. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on container transportation. Accurate forecasting of container throughput is critical for policymakers and port authorities, especially in the context of the anomalous events of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we firstly proposed hybrid models for univariate time series forecasting to enhance prediction accuracy while eliminating the nonlinearity and multivariate limitations. Next, we compared the forecasting accuracy of different models with various training dataset extensions and forecasting horizons. Finally, we analysed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on container throughput forecasting and container transportation. An empirical analysis of container throughputs in the Yangtze River Delta region was performed for illustration and verification purposes. Error metrics analysis suggests that SARIMA-LSTM 2 and SARIMA-SVR 2 (configuration 2) have the best performance compared to other models and they can better predict the container traffic in the context of anomalous events such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The results also reveal that, with an increase in the training dataset extensions, the accuracy of the models is improved, particularly in comparison with standard statistical models (i.e. SARIMA model). An accurate prediction can help strategic management and policymakers to better respond to the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the coronavirus pandemic hit in early 2020 many workers around the world, that can, have begun to work remotely. Many studies have been completed on the success or otherwise of this new trend in remote working and postulate that this trend will continue beyond the pandemic. One of the other trends that has been spoken about significantly with this renewed interest in remote working is the development of remote working hubs (RWHs). These are locations outside of main cities that are used by workers from different companies to work remotely in a flexible way. The research conducted in this paper examines several of these RWHs that are located on the periphery of Dublin city centre. The motivation for the research was to establish the potential emissions and travel time savings for commuters using RWHs. The study collected survey data from 514 participants that are currently using RWHs and questioned them on their travel and work habits. The analysis showed that users of RWHs were driving on average 60 km less per day and the majority were able to depart for work later. In the sample, 34% would have driven to their normal place of work and whereas 12% drove to their RWH. The results also point to substantial travel time and emissions savings from using RWHs. The findings suggest that on average those that drive alone could save 1.126 tonnes of CO 2 from working at a RWH 3 days a week for a year. • Our research examines remote working hubs (RWH) and how greater use of these amenities could impact on travel patterns. • Drivers could save up to 1.1 tonnes of CO 2 per annum if they worked in a RWH three days per week for a year. • The analysis showed that users of RWHs were driving on average 60 km less per day. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of the paper is to show how the national border closures within the EU-27 have an impact on changes in potential accessibility in individual transport at the NUTS3 level. We are referring to the situation that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in Europe in March 2020. The study distinguishes between long and short trips, comparing the situation before the pandemic with that after the complete closure of national borders by all EU countries, thus showing which areas of the EU will suffer from accessibility losses for both long and short trips. We conclude that the spatial pattern of regions at risk of peripheralisation for short trips well defines the zones in which a serious crisis threatens local cross-border commuting. The threat of peripheralisation for long trips mainly concerns those parts of countries which are closer to the demographic and economic core of the European Union. Nevertheless, it is also compounded by other factors: including the national settlement and road networks. • COVID-19 and the closure of borders have an impact on road potential accessibility. • The COVID-19 pandemic is a black swan event for border regions and border sections. • We compare full permeability and closure of national borders within the EU-27 (NUTS3). • Accessibility losses are related to cross-border commuting and migration flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has given rise to a major impact on traffic mobility. To implement preventive measures and manage transportation, understanding the transformation of private driving behavior during the pandemic is critical. A data-driven forecasting model is proposed to estimate daily charging demand in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic by leveraging electric vehicle (EV) charging data from four cities in China. It serves as a benchmark for quantifying the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on EV charging demand. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model is then used to investigate the dynamic relationship between the changes in charging demand and potential influencing factors. Potential influencing factors are selected from three aspects: public health data, public concern, and the level of industrial activity. The results show that the magnitude of the decline in EV charging demand varied by city during the pandemic. Furthermore, COVID-19 related factors such as daily hospitalizations and national confirmed cases are the primary causes of the decline in charging demand. The research framework of this paper can be generalized to analyze the changes in other driving behaviors during the pandemic. Finally, three policy implications are proposed to assist other countries in dealing with similar events and to stimulate the recovery of the transport system during the post-pandemic period. • A data-driven forecasting model is proposed to quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on EV charging demand. • This study investigates the dynamic relationship between the changes in charging demand and potential influencing factors. • The magnitude of the decline in EV charging demand varied by city during the pandemic. • COVID-19 related factors are the primary causes of the decline in EV charging demand. • Policy implications are recommended based on the findings of this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global COVID-19 pandemic has led to the implementation of health measures of varying degrees and scales. The lockdowns that took place in 2020, especially, have had a major impact on cities, transforming urban lifestyles, economic activities and mobility. Logistics became a priority activity. Faced with changed levels and types of consumption, freight and logistics operators in cities had to adapt, while logistics real estate developers had to face challenges related to building sites closed and regulatory and licensing processes delayed. Our main research in this paper is to characterize the way the urban freight and logistics system coped with the new situation. We focused on French cities, with Paris and the Paris metropolitan area as the main case. We implemented three surveys during and after the first lockdown in France (March–May 2020), with the views of identifying challenges while characterizing stakeholders' response to the challenges. The three surveys took different and complementary forms, covering various categories of stakeholders: freight carriers (from small to large); third party logistics providers; on-demand delivery platforms; policy-makers; and logistics real-estate developers. We found out that operators adapted quickly and overall successfully, one major difference being between delivery operators and property developers. The first group experienced higher levels of financial and economic challenges; the second group experienced difficult relationships with administrations and regulations, while enjoying a rather high level of activity. The ability of local governments to deal with urban logistics challenges during the lockdowns was diverse and took several unexpected forms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reconsiders transport inequities through the lens of environmental racism. Based on participant observations of 1972 rural-to-urban migrants at 76 worksites and 25 residential communities in five cities in the Yangtze Delta Region, China, we identified two main challenges facing migrants experiencing ethnic discrimination during Covid-19. First, they were more likely to experience housing eviction and, consequently, bear heavier transport burdens when moving. Second, they were more likely to face difficulties when returning to the cities, such as repeated quarantine and displacement, long-time drifting on the highway and transport-related job uncertainty. Although the long-term effects of these policies on migrants' everyday activity-travel behaviour may be limited, their experiences during the early phase of Covid-19 had a significant impact on their Spring Festival homecoming the following year. Regionally targeted transport policies to prevent Covid-19 have fuelled ethnic discrimination by officially classifying people from some provinces as "dangerous". Moreover, transport policies favoured some ethnic groups over others, contributing to environmental racism and exacerbating transport inequity. • Participant observation in 5 cities in the Yangtze Delta Region. • Two main challenges migrants faced during Covid-19: housing instability and transport burdens it engendered, and barriers to returning to the cities. • Experiences during the early phase of the Covid-19 outbreak influence rural-urban migrant workers' Spring Festival homecoming in the long term. • Transport policies implemented in the early phase of the pandemic fuelled environmental racism and exacerbated transport inequity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study proposes a methodology able to identify strategic ports based on port system situation and different evolution scenarios. In particular, the present paper adopts the analytic hierarchy process as tool for the port selection process in combination with the scenario planning method for measuring and explicitely considering the uncertainty for the future evolution of the port system. The proposed methodology is structured in three main phases. The first phase consists in the database construction for selecting the ports to rank and identifying all the ports characteristics to be used in the selection process. The second phase is the scenario building to identify the possible evolution of the Italian port system in the sector of container traffic. Finally, the third phase is the applications of the analytic hierarchy process for each scenario developed in the previous phase. The key factors have been settled to provide seven criteria and the applications carried out for any scenario are different only in the scores assigned to the criteria according to the different importance assigned to endogenous and exogenous factors. The numerical application of the selection process developed is carried out for the Italian port system after a comparison analysis of situation between before and during Covid-19 pandemia. The application shows that the ports of the Northern Italy are always in the first positions (Trieste, Genoa, La Spezia and Livorno) while the ports of the Southern Italy highlight some limits. The strength and the robustness of the defined process, also in considering uncertainty, are proven by the ranking occupied by Genoa and Trieste, always in the first positions, that in the last years seem more dynamic and interesting than other ports so attracting many investments from private operators. • AHP application for port selection process in combination with scenario planning technique • Numerical application carried out for the Italian port system for container traffic • Analysis of the Italian ports system before and during the Covid-19 pandemic period • Seven criteria settled for selection based on endogenous and exogenous port factors [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using daily data on the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases from China and the rest of the world, this paper investigates the corresponding effects on the global economic activity. The empirical results based on a structural vector autoregression model using crude oil prices (COP) and the Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) are consistent with increases in COVID-19 cases acting as negative demand shocks in the global economic activity (reflected as reductions in COP) and negative supply shocks in the global transportation of commodities (reflected as increases in BDI). The historical decomposition results further suggest that the effects of COVID-19 cases on COP and BDI have been mostly observed in the early COVID-19 period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The pandemic caused by coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) continues to disrupt the global supply chain system, bringing new risks and challenges. The uncertainty created by COVID-19 makes it is difficult for various industries to deal with the pandemic. Since the pandemic, the supply chain's resilience has been discussed and examined in some studies. However, most existing works start from a single industry perspective or pay more attention to the disturbance caused by changes in the production side. Supply chain networks of different industries, mainly transport networks, are relatively limited under the epidemic's impact. In this paper, from the perspective of highway freight transport, a comprehensive competitiveness evaluation framework was proposed to reveal and the disruption and resilience of the supply chain under the outbreak based on nine indexes with five dimensions, including efficiency, capacity, activity, connectivity, and negotiability. Based on the availability of the data(Large-scale truck trajectory), we sorted out seven categories of Chinese industries(related to highway transport) and divided them into four categories respectively: (a) Slight disruption and worse resilience; (b) Slight disruption and remarkable resilience; (c) Serious disruption and worse resilience; (d) Serious disruption and remarkable resilience. The measurement results of supply chain network performance show that the industries (cold-chain, general products, and other industries) dominated by "Efficiency - Negotiability - Connectivity" are slightly disrupted (about 33%), forming a spatial diffusion with Wuhan(the city where the pandemic first broke out) as the disrupted center, spreading outward in a circle structure. Simultaneously, five urban agglomerations surrounding it have been impacted. By contrast, due to the strict isolation measures, the industries (building materials, construction, engineering, and high-value products industry) more vulnerable to be disrupted seriously (about 82%) tend to be the pattern of "Capacity - Activity". However, a large-scale centralized disruption was observed in the Triangle of Central China urban agglomeration was presented, resulting in almost stagnation of industry development. Meanwhile, as the future of the pandemic remains uncertain, the supply chain represented by the engineering industry, construction industry, etc are deserved to be paid more attention in line with they are prone to large-scale centralized damage due to the disruption of a single city node. • Disruption and resilience of multi-industry supply chain under COVID-19 epidemic. • Multi-dimensional comprehensive competitiveness evaluation framework for supply chain performance. • Supply chain destruction and repair performance of seven industries in China under COVID-19 epidemic. • Characteristic differences of supply chain between different industries from the perspective of highway freight transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the COVID-19 pandemic, public transport in many cities faces dramatic reduction of passenger demand. Various countermeasures such as social distancing and in-vehicle disinfection have been implemented to reduce the potential risks concerning infection, the effectiveness in promoting the use of public transport however remains unclear. Unlike the usual situation where time and cost are the main factors affecting travel decisions, the uncertainty hiding behind the behavior change of public transport users in a pandemic might be greatly affected by the control measures and the perception of people. This paper therefore aims to examine the effects of COVID-19 related countermeasures implemented in public transport on individuals' travel decisions. We explore the extent to which do policy countermeasures influence different groups of people on the use of public transport. An error component latent class choice model was estimated using the data collected in the Netherlands. Results show that the restrictions policy lifted by the Dutch central government have significant effect on individuals' transportation mode choice decision during the pandemic. The related measures adopted by the public transport sector, by contrast, present different effects on different people. The older and highly educated people are more susceptible to enforcement measures, whereas young and single Dutch citizens are more accessible to non-compulsory measures. Moreover, compared with other private modes, public transport is generally identified as a riskier option, and the average willingness to travel descends. Findings of this study are helpful for the authorities in designing and promoting effective policies in the context of pandemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As countries across the world modify their travel in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic, the first casualty becomes the public transport sector. Transport authorities across the world have reported about 95% reduction in users during peak COVID-19, decrease of fare box revenues and additional costs for disinfecting and implementing physical distancing measures. The public transport companies in India face a larger crisis as nearly 85% people travelling intercity use public road transport in normal times. In this paper we drawpassenger clusters based on their travel dynamics and develop two frameworks, namely, passenger driven transportation strategy framework and epidemic prevention strategy framework to deal with the COVID-19 induced travel changes. The frameworks use three tenets of mobility, namely, agility, integrated movement, and public based partnership. The strategies aim to enable the transport enterprises to open new windows of travel and efficiencies for the passengers rather than restricting access and choices. However, security remains fundamental to making these new and innovative service changes possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global outbreak of COVID-19 has further exposed deficiencies in city logistics based on human and ground roads, such as poor emergency response capacity and high risk of infection during transportation. Metro-based underground logistics system (M-ULS) may be an innovative approach to deal with this city-level disaster due to its efficient operation, contactless and driverless characteristics. However, the market evolution process and the quantitative calculation framework of comprehensive benefits after the application of M-ULS are still unclear, which has become a problem of mutual restriction with the extensive application of M-ULS. This paper attempts to use the system dynamics method, based on the real-world simulation, to analyze the quantitative relationship between the M-ULS implementation and the city logistics performance under epidemic outbreaks. Wuhan city in China was selected as the empirical background, and five simulation scenarios were set under different implementation strategies of M-ULS in response to the epidemic. Six variables were selected to measure city logistics performance and M-ULS operation status, including demand fill-rate, unit delivery time, total deprivation cost, total transportation cost, total number of susceptible people, and utilization rate of M-ULS. The results show that M-ULS is effective in improving the performance of city logistics and responding to the epidemic. The delivery time and transportation cost have a strong impact on the market share of M-ULS. Finally, a set of incentive policies was designed to promote the adoption of M-ULS. The findings not only provide a method for evaluating the overall performance of M-ULS, but also provide a unique perspective for promoting the implementation of M-ULS and responding to the transportation challenges brought by the epidemic. • M-ULS is introduced to break through the plight of city logistics. • A set of effective macro-micro incentive policies are established to promote the implementation of M-ULS. • The delivery time, transportation cost and government subsidies play different roles in the market penetration of M-ULS. • The benefits of M-ULS have been analyzed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic has brought enormous impacts and changes to human mobility. To better understand and quantify the impacts of COVID-19 on city-wide ride-sourcing and taxi markets, we present exploratory evidence on the factors such as coronavirus cases related attributes, policy-related attributes, operational status of transportation, socio-economic status related variables, demographics related variables, and other factors. Based on 5-month real-world ride-sourcing and taxi datasets in Ningbo, China, including 37-million trips, we study the temporal variations of drivers' working characteristics and productivity of ride-sourcing and taxi fleets. The spatial heterogeneity of the impacts of COVID-19 on taxi and ride-sourcing trips is demonstrated in terms of traffic analysis zones (TAZs). Regression models are established to examine the impacts of a variety of explanatory variables, including COVID-19 related variables, on the district-level productivity of taxi and ride-sourcing services. The results show that the accumulated cured coronavirus cases, policy of closed management, operational status of mass transit, and average fee spent on transportation per capita significantly impact the productivity of the taxi and ride-sourcing fleets. This paper empirically reveals the influence of the epidemic on ride-sourcing and taxi markets and the temporal and spatial variations. The findings can support decision-making to restore the ride-sourcing and taxi markets and benefit other COVID-19 related research efforts. • Reveal effects of COVID-19 epidemic on ride-sourcing and taxi markets using 5-month data and 37-million trips. • Study temporal variations of drivers' working characteristics. • Estimate productivity of ride-sourcing and taxi fleets by statistic method. • Examine impacts of explanatory variables on productivity of taxi and ride-sourcing services using a regression model. • Support decision-making to restore ride-sourcing and taxi markets and benefit other COVID-19 related research efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The trucking industry is the backbone of domestic supply chains. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, road transportation has been essential to guarantee the supply of basic goods to confined urban areas. However, the connectivity of the trucking network can also act as an efficient virus spreader. This paper applies network science to uncover the characteristics of the trucking network in one major Latin American country −Colombia− and provides evidence on freight networks' ability to spread contagious diseases spatially. Network metrics, official COVID-19 records at the municipality level, and a zero-inflated negative binomial model are used to test the association between network topology and confirmed COVID-19 cases. Results suggest that: (i) the number of COVID-19 cases in a municipality is linked to its level and type of network centrality; and (ii) being a port-city and a primary economic hub in the trucking network is associated with a higher probability of contracting earlier a pandemic. Based on these results, a risk-based approach is proposed to help policymakers implement containment measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the changes on the maritime network before and after the Covid-19 outbreak. Using a large sample of vessel movements between ports, we show a decrease in the global maritime connectivity and significant differences between ports and inter-port links. Furthermore, we find that Covid-19 mitigation measures implemented by governments affected regional port hierarchies differently, with a reduction in port concentration in Europe and Africa and an increase in Asia and North America. Globally, very large ports and small but densely inter-connected ones resisted better to the crisis than the others, while small transshipment hubs and bridges appear to have been more negatively impacted. These findings have implications for the design of more resilient port strategies and transport policies by states and firms. • Global container transport is analyzed as a complex network of ports. • A net decrease in connectivity is observed between 2019 and 2020. • Emerging inter-port links are identified. • Covid-19 mitigation measures have impacted regional port hierarchies differently. • Large ports and small but densely inter-connected ports resisted better. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the spatiotemporal variation of the worldwide air transportation network (WATN) induced by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The variations are captured from four perspectives: passenger throughput, network connectivity, airport centrality, and international connections. Further, this work also considers both global and local connectivity-based metrics for the network analysis. Supported by real-world data, we show that the performance of the WATN has experienced a dynamic pattern of decline and recovery in 2020. Interestingly, the network metrics undergo tremendous variations in a very short period after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 as a pandemic, with the number of flights and connections dropping by more than 40% within only the first four weeks. Intuitively, the passenger throughput's changing rate is highly correlated to confirmed cases' growth rate during the early period of the COVID-19 outbreak. However, the air transport response to the pandemic condition is very diverse among different countries. The major airports in the WATN fluctuate gradually in different pandemic stages, which is further influenced by the domestic pandemic situation that restricts airport operations. Also, the restoration speed of local connectivity is faster than that of global connectivity because the recovery of international aviation is geographically dependent on different policies of travel restriction, conditional openings, and the number of COVID-19 cases. The analysis deepens our understanding to formulate bilateral policies for pandemic-induced ATN design and management. • Variation of the worldwide air transportation network induced by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. • Three phases of the network variation: gradual decline, sharp decline, and slow recovery. • Shift of critical airports around the world through pandemic stages. • Various recovery patterns in different countries due to domestic pandemic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper describes research activities of monitoring, modeling, and planning of people mobility in Rome during the Covid-19 epidemic period from March to June 2020. The results of data collection for different transport modes (walking, bicycle, car, and transit) are presented and analyzed. A specific focus is provided for the subway mass transit, where 1 m interpersonal distancing is required to prevent the risks for Covid-19 contagion together with the use of masks and gloves. A transport system model has been calibrated on the data collected during the lockdown period –when people's behavior significantly changed because of smart-working adoption and contagion fear– and was applied to predict future mobility scenarios under different assumptions on economic activities restarting. Based on the estimations of passenger loading, a timing policy that differentiates the opening hours of the shops depending on their commercial category was implemented, and an additional bus transit service was introduced to avoid incompatible loads of the subway lines with the required interpersonal distancing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Developing countries are more fragile in the face of the crippling Covid-19 pandemic. Transportation is one of the major industries that has been hardly hit worldwide, and it is more worrying for these countries that already have challenges such as high modal share of private cars, air pollution, and high fatalities due to car accidents. This paper is one of its first kinds that studies the impact of this pandemic on the transportation of Tehran, the capital of Iran, which is one of the forefronts of the battle. In the first step and to get better insights from the travel behavior of passengers due to the pandemic, an online questionnaire is developed and distributed. Priorities for mode choice before and during the pandemic decrease and increase in the share of different modes and the impact of having a high-risk person in the family is studied. Subway had the most decrease and private cars had the highest increase. Hence, two logit models are developed to explain the variables that affect shifting away from the subway and shifting to private cars. Based on the results, a follow-up survey some months later and ridership trends of public transportation during the pandemic, four scenarios are envisaged for the post-corona world, the most probable one is highlighted and policies are recommended to better manage the situation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 has had drastic impacts on urban economies and activities, with transit systems around the world witnessing an unprecedented decline in ridership. This paper attempts to estimate the effect of COVID-19 on the daily ridership of urban rail transit (URT) using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM). Six variables are selected as the predictors, among which four variables unaffected by the pandemic are employed. A total of 22 cities from Asia, Europe, and the US with varying timelines of the pandemic outbreak are selected in this study. The effect of COVID-19 on the URT ridership in 11 cities in Asia is investigated using the difference between their observed ridership reduction and the potential ridership generated by the other 11 cities. Additionally, the effect of the system closure in Wuhan on ridership recovery is analyzed. A series of placebo tests are rolled out to confirm the significance of these analyses. Two traditional methods (causal impact analysis and straightforward analysis) are employed to illustrate the usefulness of the SCM. Most Chinese cities experienced about a 90% reduction in ridership with some variation among different cities. Seoul and Singapore experienced a minor decrease compared to Chinese cities. The results suggest that URT ridership reductions are associated with the severity and duration of restrictions and lockdowns. Full system closure can have severe impacts on the speed of ridership recovery following resumption of service, as demonstrated in the case of Wuhan with about 22% slower recovery. The results of this study can provide support for policymakers to monitor the URT ridership during the recovery period and understand the likely effects of system closure if considered in future emergency events. • The Synthetic Control Method helps evaluate COVID-19's impact on public transit. • A reduction effect of COVID-19 on ridership is indicated in most Chinese cities. • Ridership reduction varies between cities and is not guided by the infection rate. • Ridership reduction is influenced by the severity and duration of lockdowns. • Full system closure delayed the ridership recovery following service resumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID-19 has upended travel across the world, disrupting commute patterns, mode choices, and public transit systems. In the United States, changes to transit service and reductions in passenger volume due to COVID-19 are lasting longer than originally anticipated. In this paper we examine the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on individual travel behavior across the United States. We analyze mobility data from Janurary to December 2020 from a sample drawn from a nationwide smartphone-based panel curated by a private firm, Embee Mobile. We combine this with a survey that we administered to that sample in August 2020. Our analysis provides insight into travel patterns and the immediate impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on transit riders. We investigate three questions. First, how do transit riders differ socio-demographically from non-riders? Second, how has the travel behavior of transit riders changed due to the pandemic in comparison to non-riders, controlling for other factors? And third, how has this travel behavior varied across different types of transit riders? The travel patterns of transit riders were more significantly disrupted by the pandemic than the travel of non-riders, as measured by the average weekly number of trips and distance traveled before and after the onset of the pandemic. This was calculated using GPS traces from panel member smartphones. Our survey of the panel revealed that of transit riders, 75% reported taking transit less since the pandemic, likely due to a combination of being affected by transit service changes, concerns about infection risk on transit, and trip reductions due to shelter-in-place rules. Less than 10 percent of transit riders in our sample reported that they were comfortable using transit despite COVID-19 infection risk, and were not affected by transit service reductions. Transit riders were also more likely to have changed their travel behavior in other ways, including reporting an increase in walking. However, lower-income transit riders were different from higher-income riders in that they had a significantly smaller reduction in the number of trips and distance traveled, suggesting that these lower-income households had less discretion over the amount of travel they carried out during the pandemic. These results have significant implications for understanding the way welfare has been affected for transportation-disadvantaged populations during the course of the pandemic, and insight into the recovery of U.S. transit systems. The evidence from this unique dataset helps us understand the future effects of the pandemic on transit riders in the United States, either in further recovery from the pandemic with the anticipated effects of mass vaccination, or in response to additional waves of COVID-19 and other pandemics. • The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted travel for public transit users. • Transit riders reduced their travel more than non-riders. • Among transit riders, those of lower income reduced their travel less than others. • The majority of transit riders were hesitant to use transit due to infection risk. • Less crowding, and enforcing mask use, could increase willingness to use transit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Healthcare resource availability is potentially associated with COVID-19 mortality, and the potentially uneven geographical distribution of resources is a looming concern in the global pandemic. Given that access to healthcare resources is important to overall population health, assessing COVID-19 patients' access to healthcare resources is needed. This paper aims to examine the temporal variations in the spatial accessibility of the U.S. COVID-19 patients to medical facilities, identify areas that are likely to be overwhelmed by the COVID-19 pandemic, and explore associations of low access areas with their socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. We use a three-step floating catchment area method, spatial statistics, and logistic regression to achieve the goals. Findings of this research in the State of Florida revealed that North Florida, rural areas, and zip codes with more Latino or Hispanic populations are more likely to have lower access than other regions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our approach can help policymakers identify potentially possible low access areas and establish appropriate policy intervention paying attention to those areas during a pandemic. • The temporal variations in the spatial accessibility of COVID-19 patients to ICU beds in Florida are examined. • A spatial accessibility method, spatial statistics, and a statistical method are performed. • Rural areas are more likely to be a low access area across all time periods. • Areas with more Latino or Hispanic populations are likely to have low access during the early and spreading periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has drastically altered daily life in cities across the world. To slow the spread of COVID-19, many countries have introduced mobility restrictions, ordered the temporary closure of businesses, and encouraged social distancing. These policies have directly and indirectly influenced travel behaviour, particularly modal preferences. The purpose of this paper to explore modality profiles for non-mandatory trips and analyze how they have changed in response to the pandemic and pandemic-related public health policies. The data used for this study were collected from web-based surveys conducted in the Greater Toronto Area. Modality profiles were identified through the application of latent class cluster analysis, with six modality profiles being identified for both the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods. The results indicate that the importance of public transit has declined during the pandemic, while the roles of private vehicles and active modes have become more prominent. However, individuals' changes in modal preferences vary based on their pre-pandemic modality profile. In particular, it appears that pre-pandemic transit users with access to a private vehicle have substituted public transit for travel by private vehicle, while those without private vehicle access are continuing to use public transit for non-mandatory trips. Consequently, pandemic-related transportation policies should consider those who do not have access to a private vehicle and aim to help those making non-mandatory trips using transit or active modes comply with local public health guidelines while travelling. The results highlight how the changes in modal preferences that occurred due to the pandemic differ among different segments of the population. • COVID-19 pandemic restrictions have changed modality profiles for non-mandatory trips. • The impacts of the pandemic on mobility vary among different segments of the population. • Private vehicles and active modes are now playing a more prominent role in mobility. • Public transit use is less prevalent now than it was before the pandemic. • Some transit trips have been replaced by walking, ride-sourcing, and taxi trips. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

People have always moved guided by the need to carry out various activities in different places, including that of meeting and communicating with other people. Over the past two decades, the concept of "communication" has significantly evolved given the introduction of multimedia digital technologies, which have enabled people to communicate without necessarily their physical presence. During the COVID-19 pandemic, "virtual mobility" (or "virtual communication") played a crucial role in ensuring communications between people in different contexts of social life, growing in few months to previously unforeseeable levels and demonstrating that it can substitute physical movements in many occasions. A smart management of mobility that combines the ability to virtually communicate and the use of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) to support physical mobility, can therefore strongly influence people's choice to move or not, and how. Starting from the analysis of physical mobility and virtual communications trends before and during the health emergency in Italy, this paper analyses the relationships between these two forms of communication, evaluating how virtual communication affected the different segments of Italian mobility during the pandemic and how it will affect the way people move in the post COVID-19 period. A SWOT analysis of virtual mobility is performed for each communication segment, with the aim of highlighting its pros and cons, but also future opportunities and possible threats. Some policy indications are also provided in relation to different mobility segments, governance levels (urban, regional and national) and congestion/pollution scenarios, highlighting how virtual mobility can help regulate physical movements, with the ultimate goal of pursuing a safe, sustainable, effective, efficient and connected mobility. • Physical and virtual mobility trends are analysed before and during Italian COVID-19 emergency. • The relationships between physical mobility and virtual communication are evaluated. • A novel SWOT analysis is provided regarding virtual mobility. • Virtual communication can help regulate physical mobility. • Policy indications are provided for different mobility segments, governance levels and congestion scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The outbreak of COVI-19 and the restrictive measures on the mobility of people in Brazil have raised serious concerns about the survival and recovery of passenger transport companies, especially those that generate public agglomerations. There are some policy proposals that aim to recover this set of sectors in the face of the adverse effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. This study contributes to this debate in course and analyzes the economic effects of two scenarios of recovery for this type of transport services in the Brazilian economy up to the end of 2022: (i) one with a 50% recovery until the end of 2021 and (ii) another with a 50% sectorial recovery until June 2022. This distinction allows us to assess the impact of the speed of recovery. In both scenarios, we also consider likely changes in the labor market, family preferences, and government spending. To accomplish this task, we developed a dynamic computable general equilibrium model that recognizes a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and has details of the transport sectors. The main findings suggest that the drop in these transport services is the main contributing factor to the decline in the Brazilian GDP growth (−2.2%) in the period of social distance measures. However, faster recovery of these sectors can generate a marginal effect of 0.5 percentage points on GDP at the end of 2021. In the recovery period, due to the redistributive effects of income, the family demand for public transport is expected to grow post- COVID-19 outbreak, while the demand for private transport is reduced, especially in the basket of goods of the poorest households. Vehicle, bus, and aircraft manufacture seems sensitive to the recovery time of the demand for transport services with public agglomerations. • The paper develops a SAM-based dynamic CGE models detailing the transport sectors. • With a faster recovery in the transport service, the endogenous response of the Brazilian economy is more intense. • The income effect of the emergency resource policy alters the modal distribution in the household budget. • Manufacture of vehicles, buses and aircraft are sensitive to the recovery time scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been widespread interest in the potential for the significant behavioural and policy adaptations rendered necessary by Coronavirus to act as a catalyst for radical longer term policy change in transport. However, this body of work to date has been limited in its consideration of how such policy change might be brought about. Translating the lessons from the Coronavirus response to other ongoing strategic challenges such as decarbonisation requires analysis of what the pandemic has revealed about processes of policy formulation and how institutions responsible for policy implementation actually work. This paper explores the extent to which rapid policy change has actually been possible in the transport sector in England and Scotland during the pandemic, and key examples of how such change has been both achieved and blocked. Two rounds of interviews with senior stakeholders from across the transport sector were undertaken in June and November 2020 to inform the analysis. We find that the pandemic has accelerated some policy commitments that were already planned, but at a time of huge stress on the whole of government and its partner delivery organisations, the potential to deliver radical policy adaptation was limited. However, Coronavirus is recognised as being a potentially path-changing disruption to existing trajectories in terms of the adaptations to business practices, industry structures, ways of working and the public finances. Paradoxically, whilst recognising these uncertainties, decision-makers are yet to deviate from pre-pandemic planning assumptions and policy plans and this risks missing the opportunities to steer how those changes unfold. • Addresses research gap in the study of governance responses during disruptions. • Identifies transport as a distant policy sub-sector in a crisis that affected all parts of government. • Finds that the response to the pandemic has accelerated already planned policies but generated few new policies. • Long-term impacts on the future structure of cities, use of public transport and uptake of active travel could still emerge. • The leading strategic thinkers on transport policy are still unsure what kinds of future demand to plan for. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social distancing has been adopted as a strategy to contain the advance of the pandemic until specific solutions to combat the virus are available. Many economic sectors and social activities need to continue despite the viruses, and most social distancing policies disregard individual choices, resulting in greater or lesser adherence to isolation. In this paper, we characterize the differentiation of access to essential activities within Brazilian cities during social distancing and the intention to maintain behavior changes concerning these activities in the post-pandemic period. The results showed that the behavior regarding essential activities during the pandemic is not independent of variables associated with pre-pandemic travel patterns, isolation conditions, and socioeconomic factors. Post-pandemic intention proved to be statistically dependent on factors associated with the activities' characteristics and experiences during the pandemic. Accessibility-oriented planning can guide urban and transportation policies more equitably through the identification of the most affected groups by activity disruption. At the same time, the incorporation of new routines less dependent on displacement offers opportunities to review public space. [Display omitted] • Less schooling, self-employed or less frequent commuters changed less work routine. • Young, less schooling or low-income people maintained educational and purchase trips. • Higher schooling people have more chances to keep essential tasks without traveling. • Public transport users had fewer opportunities to switch from routine to purchasing. • Post-pandemic intention is statistically dependent on activities' characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mathematical modeling of epidemic spreading has been widely adopted to estimate the threats of epidemic diseases (i.e., the COVID-19 pandemic) as well as to evaluate epidemic control interventions. The indoor place is considered to be a significant epidemic spreading risk origin, but existing widely-used epidemic spreading models are usually limited for indoor places since the dynamic physical distance changes between people are ignored, and the empirical features of the essential and non-essential travel are not differentiated. In this paper, we introduce a pedestrian-based epidemic spreading model that is capable of modeling indoor transmission risks of diseases during people's social activities. Taking advantage of the before-and-after mobility data from the University of Maryland COVID-19 Impact Analysis Platform, it's found that people tend to spend more time in grocery stores once their travel frequencies are restricted to a low level. In other words, an increase in dwell time could balance the decrease in travel frequencies and satisfy people's demands. Based on the pedestrian-based model and the empirical evidence, combined non-pharmaceutical interventions from different operational levels are evaluated. Numerical simulations show that restrictions on people's travel frequency and open hours of indoor places may not be universally effective in reducing average infection risks for each pedestrian who visit the place. Entry limitations can be a widely effective alternative, whereas the decision-maker needs to balance the decrease in risky contacts and the increase in queue length outside the place that may impede people from fulfilling their travel needs. The results show that a good coordination among the decision-makers can contribute to the improvement of the performance of combined non-pharmaceutical interventions, and it also benefits the short-term and long-term interventions in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Travel activities and travel behaviors have been greatly affected by the outbreak of Covid-19. Facing the change of individuals' travel choices, policymakers have to make an appropriate response to mitigate negative consequences. This paper aims to explore how the COVID-19 would impact travel mode choice and the intention of car purchase. The data was collected from a large-scale survey conducted in June 2020 after the highest point. Random utility maximization (RUM), random regret minimization (RRM) and generalized regret minimization (GRRM) are employed to examine the effects of various factors on mode choice behaviors. The estimation results reveal that regret aversion psychology doesn't have a dominant proportion of decision choices, even if the congested condition of the mass mobility plays a significant role in the consideration of decision-making. Combined with the statistical results from the official departments, we concluded that public transport displays a great propensity on the long trip, and meanwhile, the industry of ride-hailing services has shocked sharply. In terms of the intention of traffic tool purchase, carless people prefer to buy electric two-wheel vehicles rather than automobiles. The research findings and the contribution to policy implications give assistance to authority in understanding citizens' travel mode preferences under the impact of COVID-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has suddenly modified the lifestyle of a large portion of the population around the world. This pandemic is also the first one in decades that has severely impacted many countries of the Global North. Governments have had to adopt wide-scope and desperate measures to face the abnormal situation and to reduce the stress of their health care systems. These measures have been based on reducing the physical-social interaction and mobility (closing schools and some economic activities, or fostering telework, among others), increasing the physical distance between people, and recommending washing hands frequently and wearing masks. Thus, the COVID-19 may change many habits of people and the ways we interact with others after the current pandemic. It would also imply changes in mobility habits. Many questions arise about the willingness and acceptability of changes, and who would have to impulse them and how. This paper aims to study and understand individuals' acceptability towards a set of generic measures related to urban mobility in Spain, one of the countries most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. To that end, we conducted an online survey during the lockdown in Spring (2020). More than 75% of respondents would accept restrictions on car use after the return to normal, and more than 90% agree on increasing the space for pedestrians and cyclists on streets. Furthermore, 75% of respondents would change the primary transport mode towards a more sustainable transport mode if it would decrease the incidence or severity of the COVID-19. These results show that the respondents are overall in favor of a new urban hierarchy that gives more importance to the most sustainable modes, reducing the public space devoted to the car, which means the possibility of turning the COVID-19 crisis into an opportunity to make Spanish cities more sustainable. • Impacts of COVID-19 on mobility patterns and behavior in Spain. • Acceptance of policies to restrict car use and increase soft mode space in a post-COVID-19 scenario. • Policy measures are recommended based on the survey and the Binary Logit models rresults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has been unprecedented in its scale and speed, impacting the entire world, and having an impact on metropolitan transportation systems. New York City (NYC) was especially hard hit in March and April 2020. A mandatory stay-at-home order was instituted, with all but essential businesses ordered closed. In this paper we examine the impact on the Citi Bike system and the NYC subway. Usage patterns during the lockdown are compared to corresponding days in 2019. Controlling for weather patterns we examine the effect of the lockdown and subsequent reopening of economic activity up through the end of September 2020. The results show that both subway ridership and bikeshare usage plummeted initially; bikeshare usage has nearly returned to normal while subway ridership remains substantially below pre-COVID levels. Implications for policy suggest that the bikeshare system provides resilience to the overall transportation system during disasters when public transit is considered dangerous or is disrupted. • Bikeshare and Subway use in New York City dropped at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. • We estimate changes in bikeshare use before and during the pandemic. • We control for weather effects and examine casual rider and subscriber usage. • Bikeshare use returned to pre-pandemic levels while subway use remained low. • Results suggest that bikeshare provides a resilient transport option for cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]