Search

This paper introduces a two-sector model of endogenous distributive cycles and overproduction, by using elements from Marxian and Kaleckian perspectives. The model combines the two-sector model with market power presented by Dutt (1988) with insights from the cyclical model of Goodwin (1967) and the model of growth and distribution of Dutt (1987). The paper establishes the analytical conditions for a short-run equilibrium point for sectoral capacity utilization rates. Furthermore, for the long run, considering capital accumulation, the paper demonstrates the existence of stable cycles in four dimensions (sectoral distribution of capital, employment rate, and markups for sectors producing capital and consumption goods). These findings are used to reinterpret overproduction within capitalist cycles, where the relative magnitudes of overaccumulation of capital and underconsumption change at different phases of the cycle, while full employment is not a relevant case. The paper concludes by suggesting insights for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is: first, to show that the relationship between Latin America and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a faithful reflection of a class struggle on a world scale, where the correlation of internal and external forces has been articulated over the years in favor of capital; second, to analyze the concrete possibilities that the region will face in the future if it intends to reverse this unfavorable history. The paper argues that the IMF has played a key role in the reconfiguration and extension of the dominance of international finance capital over the productive resources of Latin America by favoring the consolidation of a local capitalist class subordinated to the designs and power of transnational capital. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To effectively address the grand challenges of our time, we cannot simply tinker around the edges by fixing market failures. We must actively shape markets to deliver on the objective of generating more sustainable and inclusive growth. This paper argues that an objective-oriented economy requires a market-shaping approach; one that accompanies the concept of the public good with the common good framing that is needed to design the interface for this collaboration. This is about structuring the conditions and governance mechanisms that shape the capabilities, tools, institutions, and partnerships needed to take concrete action. Building collective intelligence into these dimensions ex-ante is essential for maximising public value for all actors involved. This paper sets out how a market-shaping and common good framing can be conceptualised and brought together. Importantly, missions can be used to orient and coordinate policies, institutions, innovation, and investments around clear, ambitious, and measurable goals. Further, this paper addresses the implications for key global challenges, from climate change to pandemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the different approaches and policies that are most used in the literature to measure the level of poverty with tools of fuzzy logic. These policies are based on the integrated measurement method (IM), which combines poverty line methods and unmet basic needs. Moreover, we present the most recent studies on the measurement of the level of poverty in different sectors and populations, as well as the more relevant conclusions of the work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies Argentina's economic growth trajectory between 1962 and 2019. To achieve this, we analyze the pattern of technological progress deduced from the dynamics of labor productivity and the output capital ratio. Between 1962 and the mid 1980s, technical change was Marx biased (for example, labor saving and capital consuming), which resulted in decreased profitability. From then and until 2008, technological change has been Hicks neutral with increased profitability. Afterward, profitability resumes the negative trend until the end of the analyzed period. The structural change observed since the middle 1970s is associated with a halving of the average rate of capital accumulation, greater macroeconomic volatility, and changes in development models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Neoliberalism is a political-economic philosophy that consists of two claims: one economic and the other political. The economic claim is: that free market laissez faire economies are the best way to organize economic activity as they generate efficient outcomes that maximize well-being. The political claim is: that free market economic arrangements promote individual liberty. This paper argues both claims are problematic. The evidence from the forty-year experiment that began in 1980 shows neo liberalism has undercut shared prosperity and unleashed illiberal forces that threaten liberty. The paper distinguishes between the first political turn which saw the establishment of neoliberal political hegemony, and the second one toward proto-fascism that we are now experiencing. The second turn is being driven by a collection of factors that have created a demand for proto-fascism and weakened the defenses against alt-right ideas. Those factors include socio-economic disembedding, institutional destruction and political disembedding, increased economic inequality that tilts political power, an alteration in attitudes to government and governance, transformation of economic identity, and a cultural transformation that celebrates sociopathic egotism. The Third Way's capture of center-left politics means liberal elites occupy the political place that should be held by true opponents of neoliberalism. Those liberal elites obstruct the politics needed to reverse the deep causes of the drift to proto-fascism. Ironically, that makes those elites a real danger. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to analyze the relationship between agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions as a function of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and its quadratic term in 26 Latin American and Caribbean countries (1990-2019). It also considers the stock of foreign investment to test the polluting paradise hypothesis, agricultural land (AL), and, additionally, methane for nitrous function. The study comprised unit root and cointegration tests. Coefficients were estimated by using fully modified least squares (FMOLS), correlated common effects (CCE), and augmented mean group (AMG). Results by FMOLS show statistical evidence of an environmental Kuznets curve in the set of countries for methane and support the polluting paradise hypothesis. However, results from CCE and AMG show the opposite. For nitrous oxide, FMOLS confirms a U-shaped curve. The above supports a joint environmental policy for both gases, where AL is a key element. The previous results must be corroborated with other methods and the studies extended to other countries over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reinterprets some intuitions from Marx by using a model of endogenous cycles in three dimensions: employment rate, wage share, and labor intensity (this last variable has not received enough attention in the Marxian literature of cyclical models). The paper presents an analytical demonstration (using the Hopf bifurcation theorem) and numerical simulations for the existence of stable cycles in the model if the mechanization rate is sufficiently high and the bargaining power of the working class to increase wages is lower than a given threshold. In contrast, the model is unstable when the bargaining power of the working class is too high; a result that motivates the discussion of the notion of structural economic crises (which differ from the periodic economic crises that emerge in the context of capitalist cycles). The paper concludes with a summary of results and suggestions for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to analyze the progressivism in Latin America, by inquiring about the peculiarities for which this phenomenon could not promote structural changes and what would be the chances of achieving them with the advance of the hegemonic and capitalist transition that the world is going through. If progressivism manages to continue and preserve itself to the point of the transition where the advanced capitalist class emerges to replace the decadent class, it could achieve, in alliance with the latter, the promotion of changes that modify the productive structure in favor of the subaltern classes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since its appearance in 2020, Brazil and Mexico have been among the most affected countries in the world by covid-19. Their respective presidents, Jair Bolsonaro and Andrés Manuel López Obrador (known as AMLO), have played a leading role in specific policies during the pandemic. Their choices were both singular and counter- intuitive. On the health front, AMLO initially underplayed the seriousness of the situation, and the Brazilian president, Bolsonaro, defended a frankly negationist attitude, with a dramatic balance sheet, without his popularity being seriously affected. On the economic front, they have chosen policies that contradict not only each other but also their own supposed ideological stances. Bolsonaro, who is ranked on the far right, has implemented an emergency transfer program on a scale comparable to those of developed countries and the most massive the country has ever seen. Conversely, AMLO, considered a progressist, provided just a minimum policy package, maintaining his previous electoral program. By adopting a comparative approach and mobilizing a unique and diversified set of data, the objective of this paper is to explore these apparent contradictions. After having established the precise diagnosis of the policies implemented to deal with the crisis and the economic and health situation in the two countries during the 2020-2022 period, we propose an original interpretation grid of the central role played by the two presidents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the effects of trade with China on the productive structures of Latin American economies. For this, a structural decomposition analysis is carried out based on the input-output matrices of the Asian Development Bank for the period 2007-2017. The document shows that the effects of import substitution (negative) and exports (positive) on the change in gross production reflect the growing importance that China has acquired in recent decades as a source of imports and as a destination of exports of various sectors for Latin America. Results are included for Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to quantify the land use from the primary activities in terms of consumption in Mexico. To do this, we assign data on the land use for agriculture, livestock, productive forestry, and aquaculture to the primary economic activities represented in the 2018 input-output table. Also, the input-output model of land use is complemented with statistical information from the import matrix and the social accounting matrix of 2018. The results indicate that the land footprint amounts to 61 745 416 hectares and 0.49 hectares per capita. This means that 73% of the land footprint is represented by land areas within our country and 27% by areas in other countries. The land demand derived from the consumption of the population in Mexico is greater than the land areas used in the production of primary activities. This study has two limitations: one referred to the assumptions of the input-output model and another, to the concept of land use. The originality and value of the article consist in analyzing the demand for land for food production in Mexico, which represents the greatest threat to the conservation of terrestrial ecosystems and the ecological services that emanate from it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effects of the financial crisis of the 1930s on the path of aggregate output during that period. Our approach is complementary to that of Friedman and Schwartz, who emphasized the monetary impact of the bank failures; we focus on non-monetary (primarily credit-related) aspects of the financial sector-output link and consider the problems of debtors as well as those of the banking system. We argue that the financial disruptions of 1930-1933 reduced the efficiency of the credit allocation process; and that the resulting higher cost and reduced availability of credit acted to depress aggregate demand. Evidence suggests that effects of this type can help explain the unusual length and depth of the Great Depression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper shows that the liberalization processes and the expansion of the financial sector have changed profoundly the economic, social, and political life of the world economy. New phenomena have arisen, such as the supremacy of the monetary authorities over the fiscal ones and the transformation of national governments into creditors of the central banks. These changes have generated negative consequences, like financial instability, an increase in the number of crises, low growth, and distributive inequality. The article clarifies the need to modify relevant aspects of economic policy. It argues that attributing the role of leaders to the monetary authorities in the coordination of economic policies harms growth and distributive equity. The work claims that discretion should be returned to fiscal policy and that public intervention should guide the evolution of the productive structure. To restore discretion to fiscal policy, the quality of public policies and the levels of trust between the different institutions of national economic policy and between financial market operators and government authorities must be improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By analyzing Mexico's productive structure in the 1980s and 2013, this paper explores whether promoting the domestic market may complement the dynamism of the external sector and achieve a process of sustained growth and development for an economy highly integrated into the international market. The methodology applied is an extension of the input-output model and network analysis; in particular, the concept of vertically integrated sectors is a major feature to reach conclusions. The results show that stimulating the domestic market can be a complementary strategy for promoting the export sector to boost growth and economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we built an input-output environmental model for the Mexican economy to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions produced by this economy to the year 2030 and to explore the possibilities for their reduction. The model shows how innovative technologies applied in selected subsectors of the economy might reduce total emissions, through their direct and indirect effects on other sectors. We used the model to calculate two trajectories: one called "business as usual" and another that results from simulating a technological change in selected sectors. We conclude from the results that technological change, even limited to a few sectors, tends to produce important beneficial effects in terms of GHG reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a new model is developed by referring to the literature on Dutch disease and rent-seeking for explaining how a natural resource boom in the energy sector decreases national income and induces a resource movement effect under a rent-seeking monopoly. In such a model, it is shown that the resource movement effect certainly occurs during the boom where labor inputs will move to the energy sector from the services sector. Moreover, the boom facilitates rent-seeking and decreases national income. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper reviews pressing issues related to corporate taxation in the oil industry amid the financial crisis, sanctions imposed against Russia, and low oil prices. It pays special attention to the analysis of the first results of the tax reform and to the introduction of a profit-based tax. The main goal of the research is to develop and implement a modern and efficient tax regime that would ensure a continuous and stable flow of tax revenues to the national budget and contribute to the long-term development of the national oil industry. The subject of the study is the current issues of oil taxation, in particular, the application of the taxation mechanism of the financial results of oil companies and the reform of the taxation system of export duties to the oil refining industry. The article presents the ways of effective tax policy for the qualitative development of oil sector enterprises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After 40 years of neoliberalism, even governments believe that they are inefficient when compared to the private sector. And economics, in its swing to the right, reinforces this view. The philosophy behind public expenditure for social purposes and the criteria for judging such projects has not been a subject of public debate until recently. In particular, industrial policy was very simple: leave it to the private sector to allocate resources as the market prompts. In Keynes's time, this was not the case. This article reviews some of the issues concerning the industrial policy that was aired in the interwar period. The debate needs to be revived, revisited and, where appropriate, revised to suit the present day, but on basic principles there is much to learn from the interwar discussions. The contrast between the recent (2018) UK government's White Paper on industrial strategy and the Liberal Industrial Inquiry's Britain's Industrial Future (1928) is quite instructive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Financialization refers to the process by which financial markets, actors, instruments, and institutions gain importance in the functioning of economies and where the surplus generated is directed towards financial accumulation, which displaces productive accumulation (Epstein, 2005). However, this process is heterogeneous among regions and countries, and occurs in the periphery in the form of "subordinate financialization", since the dynamics of global accumulation condition its asymmetric and dependent insertion. This paper aims to examine a set of central aspects of the process of subordinate financialization of Latin American countries, which is manifested in the loss of sovereign monetary spaces, and which are linked to the process of dollarization of banking systems, the degree of indebtedness, and the internationalization of wealth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Employment in the industrial sector has decreased in all advanced countries, even though the sector's share in the gross domestic product (gdp) has not changed or has decreased only slightly in many cases, mostly because of improvements in labour productivity. Simultaneously, services have not stopped growing, reaching a share in developed economies of around 75%, sometimes higher, both in employment and contribution to nominal gdp. These processes have been the subject of extensive literature developed on the concepts of "deindustrialization" and "tertiarization", and on their possible explanations. Though delayed, these two far-reaching trends have taken, or are taking place, also in countries classified as middle-income or developing countries, giving rise to the concept of "premature deindustrialization". Various explanations have emerged around these issues, all of which have qualified the two major trends as worrisome. A common explanation suggests an industry-services contrast, where the trade-off between them appears as "the villain of the story"--borrowing an expression from the traditional theatre. This paper aims to show that this view is oversimplifying and wrong. What is observed in almost all economies is a process of growing integration between the two sectors, instead of a confrontation between them, and everything indicates that they will only integrate further in the coming years. The characteristics of such integration will be analyzed in the paper as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper revisits Keynes's writings from Indian Currency and Finance (1913/1971) to The General Theory (1936b/1973) with a focus on financial instability. The analysis reveals Keynes's astute concerns about the stability/fragility of the banking system, especially under deflationary conditions. Keynes's writings during the Great Depression uncover insights into how this event may have informed his General Theory. By exploring the connection between the experience of the Great Depression and the theoretical framework, Keynes presents in The General Theory, we can see that the assumption of a constant money stock featuring in that work is central. The analysis underscores the case that The General Theory is not a special case of the (neo-) classical theory that is relevant only to "depression economics"--refuting the interpretation offered by J. R. Hicks (1937) in his seminal paper "Mr. Keynes and the classics: A suggested interpretation". As a scholar of the Great Depression and Federal Reserve chairman at the time of the modern crisis, Ben Bernanke provides an important intellectual bridge between the historical crisis of the 1930s and the modern crisis of 2007-2009. The paper concludes that, while policy practice has changed, the "classical" theory Keynes attacked in 1936 remains hegemonic today. The common (mis-)interpretation of The General Theory as depression economics continues to describe the mainstream's failure to engage in relevant monetary economics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In contrast to other countries, in Mexico, there is no survey to numerically measure consumer inflation expectations. This paper reports the results of the application of a simple questionnaire that aims to obtain a first approximation of these expectations. The exercise also seeks to obtain information on the process of expectations formation through a controlled intervention, as well as to investigate which products have an effect on inflation expectations the most. Four groups were randomly formed: three that received information on past, present or expected inflation, and a control group with no additional information. Consistent with the literature, the results show that people have a higher inflation expectation than specialists. The experiment also reveals that providing information does affect and reduce inflation expectations. Finally, we find that inflation expectations depend mainly on everyday consumer products, such as food. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historically, higher education is considered one of the main routes of upward social mobility. However, given the plurality of options offered by the education system at this level, there may be a distinctive pattern not only of socioeconomic origin but also of economic results after graduating from a specific higher education institution (hei), which can inhibit the promotion of social mobility through hei. Using data from the Intergenerational Social Mobility Module 2016, this paper analyzes whether the hei in Mexico promote the social mobility of their graduates. The results suggest a potential mediating effect of hei in the intergenerational transmission of wealth. This means that the wealth of the original household is an important determinant of the type of hei from which the respondents graduate, furthermore, the type of hei also explains part of the variation in the wealth of the current household of graduates. Specifically, individuals who reported having completed their university studies at the National Polytechnic Institute (ipn, Mexico) present the lowest intergenerational correlation of wealth, 0.18. In contrast, normal schools and the National Pedagogical University (upn, Mexico) have the highest intergenerational persistence rates, 0.48 and 0.47, respectively. Under these findings, it is argued that the type of hei from which individuals graduate can complement the explanation of the mechanisms of intergenerational persistence of wealth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper performs a comparative analysis of the Chinese and Mexican production structures, through a descriptive study and using the methods of structural analysis on input-output tables of 1995 and 2011. During this period, the average annual per capita gross domestic product (gdp) growth in China amounted to 9.18%, while in Mexico it reached only 0.95%. Assuming that China's growth has been successful in this sense, then a mayor conclusion from this paper is that if Mexico wishes to reach high growth rates, the main element potentially useful to elaborate an efficacious strategy from China's experience is clear: To foster, from a proactive participation of the state, the development of key sectors which will constantly increase their multiplier effects, so that a mayor integration of the national economy is achieved, and the development and consolidation of the productive apparatus sufficient to support the generation of next-generation productive sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to integrate into a single analytical framework the three dimensions of sustainable development, namely the economic, social, and environmental ones. With this objective, a three-gap model within the structuralist tradition is laid down, which identifies and compares three rates of growth: the maximum rate compatible with external equilibrium, the maximum rate compatible with the environmental commitments of the region, and the minimum rate necessary for increasing equality. Policy scenarios are simulated using the E3ME Cambridge Econometrics model, a macroeconometric model of the socioeconomic, energy, and environmental systems. The simulation exercises confirm the crucial importance of combining industrial and technological policies with those for social protection and welfare to foster growth, formal employment, the decoupling of emissions, and equality. An international governance that encourages the reduction of technological asymmetries and broadens the policy space for development in the periphery is necessary to advance towards a new style of development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper first analyzes the performance of Latin America during the long economic cycle that took place between 1998 and 2014, which combined the regional effects of the Asian crisis with a growth phase driven by a supercycle of commodity prices. However, the expansionary phase was followed by a five-year period of economic stagnation, during which previous achievements were weakened, even before the covid-19 crisis erupted, with its negative consequences. This confirms the persistence of the region's economic vulnerability to external shocks, as well as the difficulties in maintaining sustained growth rates associated with processes of structural change, which make it possible to reduce the gap in the development levels vis-à-vis the leading countries and face the challenges of environmental sustainability. It is also pointed out that, despite the important achievements in terms of social development during the recent growth cycle, the high structural inequalities that characterize the region were not broken. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper studies the decline of the labor income share (LIS) in Mexico during the 1990-2015 period. The decline is mostly explained by reductions within the economy's major sectors (including manufacturing, tradables, and non-tradables), rather than by a recomposition of value added towards sectors with low labor shares. In contrast to agriculture --where LIS fell due to a shift of labor force from self-employment to wage-employment-- in other major areas of the economy the fall in LIS is explained by reductions within the wage-employment sector. Econometric estimations indicate that parallel declines in the wage share and relative productivity of non-tradables and in the US manufacturing labor share all played a large role in the reduction of the manufacturing wage share in Mexico. More generally, the analysis suggests that the lagging productivity of the economy's informal non-tradable sector --itself a reflection of the country's low aggregate rate of economic growth-- is a crucial factor in the fall of LIS in the formal sectors. The paper concludes by discussing possible explanations for the paradox of the slow rate of economic growth in Mexico despite the rise in the profit share. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on a reading of Keynes according to which the General theory paves the way for an investment theory of aggregate income and a financial theory of investment, this paper focuses on an issue that is usually ignored by the currently trendy economic theories: the transcendental role played by financial institutions and money in a capitalist economy. Due to a failure of these institutions' assets to perform that induces a diminishment in the flow of cash and increases their aversion to risk, there comes a decrease in the financing of consumption and investment spending through these intermediaries; this, in turn, leads to declines in investment and consumption spending, which affects the flow of profits and wages available. The notion that this economy enjoys a general equilibrium should be discarded; likewise, the quantitative theory of money should be dispensed with. At the same time, once that we eliminate the assumption that the future is perfectly foreseeable, it is possible to conclude that these institutions are inherently plighted by a great uncertainty. The general performance of an economy improves insofar as the state successfully intervenes in order to sustain solvency, strengthening the resources via substantial spending, and does not limit itself to the financing of consumption. This paper considers the financial structure and the flow of income (especially aggregate profits), and then proposes an integrated model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contains a critical examination of the main features and results of the general equilibrium theory (get). We review get's failure in its attempt to demonstrate global stability for the general case of a n-commodity market connected through a price system. This is a well known result based on the works of Arrow, Block, Hurwicz and Scarf; but it is now also a well established fact after the Sonnenschein-Mantel-Debreu theorem. The paper also covers the case of price formation in trading models (non-tâtonnement) where uniqueness of equilibrium is lost. The presence of the walrasian auctioneer and the difficulties inherent to the introduction of money are also examined. The essay also shows how get fails to demonstrate the existence of a general competitive equilibrium with a fixed point theorem because the mappings that are used in this effort lack the economic interpretation commonly attributed to them. Finally, the essay also highlights some of the implications of this negative scorecard for neoclassical macroeconomic theory and its reductionist project with rational expectations and representative agents to provide "micro-foundations" to macroeconomic analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mexican automotive sector--integrated into the regional value chain of North America, led by the United States--is characterized by performing mainly manufacturing tasks, which limits its value-added contribution. However, this does not imply that the environmental impact resulting from these tasks is proportional to the value it generates. The paper aims to analyze this dual dimension of the Mexican automotive sector, by describing both its productive structure and its environmental impact related to its foreign trade flows. The results reveal uneven participation in the regional value chain depending on whether Mexican value-added exports are considered in monetary or emission terms, which exhibits a greater contribution in terms of emissions than in value compared to the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the different trends that will determine the future of work in Latin America; it reviews the hypothesis that places the impact of technological change at the center of the explanation of changes in the future of work. We discuss the studies on the potential impact of these technological transformations on the labor world, in terms of employment levels, the quality of work, as well as the aspect of control and labor discipline. Also, other important trends that could over-determine the labor market are analyzed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we analyze the feasibility of exporting spiral notebooks from Argentina to Mexico. We consider this possibility for a leader Argentinean enterprise both, the Argentinean and Mexican markets are studied, and also the strategic positioning of the several enterprises operating in the Mexican market. We also include a sensitive analysis on the exchange rate, giving as a result several alternative scenarios for possible competition among the enterprises. We conclude that it is very convenient for this type of enterprise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper constitutes a preliminary report that analyzes the crisis and indebtedness of countries, particularly those in developing and emerging markets, in the face of the covid-19 pandemic. It makes a critical recount of the measures and recommendations that various international organizations and developed countries are taking, and based on these it proposes some suggestions to fight the crisis equitably for the whole world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increase in temperature in the last 50 years has had serious effects in the economy, so it is necessary to take mitigation policies to reduce its effects. In this paper, an estimation of the emission multipliers is carried out through the input-output technique, which serves as another instrument for the evaluation and analysis of the different mitigation policy alternatives. The estimated multipliers allow us to observe which sectors have the greatest impact on greenhouse gases emissions, in order to carry out a characterization of the most efficient policies in each sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates, for the first time in the Colombian case, the indirect effects of spillovers from foreign direct investment (fdi) on the exports of national companies. At an empirical level, we used a convenience sample made of 32 exporting companies, 14 foreign affiliates, and 18 domestic companies, which maintained continuity at about 60% of the total value of the national exportable supply in the 2007-2016 period. By using a panel of data with fixed effects, we show that the positive effects of the inflow of fdi on the export of local companies are more associated with reaction mechanisms for the protection of their international markets from the so-called competition effect, and not with the export learning processes due to the knowledge, the technology, and the experience that foreign companies possess. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The structure and the trend of the fiscal system reflect the orientation of the development model of Mexico in past decades and they determine its future model and its ability to meet the main social challenges (development, equity, wellbeing, environmental sustainability, etc.). The objective of this paper is to study the relative dimension, the tax structure and the trends in tax collection, as well as the nature and the objectives of the incentives and the tax benefits that have been enforced in Mexico in recent years. This exercise allows an evaluation of the 2014 tax reform to be made with the perspective of the past six years and the formulation of future challenges. A descriptive and qualitative approach was used based on data obtained from the Inter-American Center of Tax Administration (ciat), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (oecd), and the Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público (shcp). The structure of tax collection is analyzed, with a focus on the main federal taxes, as well as the volume and the composition of tax expenditure, by breaking down the existing incentives and the tax benefits on each of the taxes. The main results indicate a passive evolution in the collection power that grew from 12.5% of gross domestic product (gdp) in 1990 to 15.6% in 2019, principally based on consumer taxes, wage income tax and a strong dependence on the fossil fuels sector. This shows that some of the stated objectives of the 2014 reform--significantly increasing collection capacity and reducing the jungle of incentives and tax benefits--have hardly been met. In conclusion, some of the challenges that a tax reform should face in terms of inclusion, equity and sustainability are formulated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a preliminary assessment of the various impacts of the fiscal reform undertaken by President Enrique Peña Nieto. First, the weaknesses and vulnerabilities of the fiscal structure that the new administration had to face are shown, in particular the dependence on oil revenues. The need for a fiscal reform that increased income, diminish fiscal evasion and labour informality was evident. In the second part of the paper the actual reform measures are discussed, as well as its various measurable impacts. It is particularly relevant the unexpected oil price drop and the government response to maintain gasoline prices and thus prevent fiscal revenues from declining, as well as the government’s repeated forecasting mistakes. Finally, it is concluded that in spite of being insufficient, Peña Nieto’s fiscal reform was successful in increasing the fiscal burden from 8.4% of gdp in 2012 to 13.1% in 2017. However, such increase in revenues was not enough to prevent the rise of the public debt in almost 10 percentage points of GDP, in spite of the fact that the government took the operational surpluses of Banco de México. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: "Middle class" is a polysemic social category. In methodological terms, it is similar to that of poverty, both without consensus according to literature. A comprehensive review of literature is made in this paper, emphasizing on single and multidimensional methodologies, identifying non-consensual findings when using and building thresholds and different dimensions. Methodology: This paper proposes identification of Mexican Middle Class according to a multidimensional perspective, consistent with Coneval's multidimensional poverty measurement method (2009), where income is a necessary but not enough condition of security and none vulnerability. "Latent-class models" are built based upon the Coneval's Rights and Well-being indicators that identified the ratio of population that could be considered middle classes. Five categories are obtained: population in multidimensional poverty, vulnerable population by income, vulnerable population due to social deprivation, middle classes and rich population. Results: Among the main findings, there is evidence that Mexico continues to be a country of poor, rather than middle class people. The number of people in poverty is 2.3 times greater than that of middle class, while the status and conditions of life guaranteeing security and not economic vulnerability, characteristic of the middle class, is only due for a little more of a quarter of the total population, 27.5%. This paper presents findings on the evolution of the middle class, which grows between 2000-2006, before the food and economic-financial crisis of 2006 and 2008, but never reaches levels above 50%. After crisis years, it begins its descent again to levels similar to 1994, showing its vulnerability to economic crisis. Conclusions: As a conclusion sustainability of middle classes over time in Mexico depends both on an effective and efficient policy to fight against poverty, and on specific policy about middle classes, which actually in Mexico and Latin American countries does not exist. This means that the broadest layers of the population, in the same way as in developed countries, have access to a living wage that guarantees well-being, effective health services, quality education, access to the credit market and financial services, as well as adequate and dignified pension system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Different international organizations and national governments are promoting the adoption of open government strategies. There are rankings to measure the evolution of some of its dimensions, but there is a gap of indicators comprising open data, transparency, participation and collaboration simultaneously. In this paper we propose the Open Government and Participation Index (ogpi), based on previous academic works, to compare open government strategies over time and among different countries. The index, which weighs different open government dimensions, is built for a sample of 33 member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (oecd) from open and consistent sources. The results show that the areas of transparency and open data have a wide room for improvement and that participation and collaboration strategies require an autonomous approach. By region, open government is more developed in the Commonwealth countries, while those in Eastern Europe present the lowest level of implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the uncertainty in this regard, this paper analyzes the most appropriate monetary policy position for Mexico, which aims to maintain the inflation objective without negatively affecting product growth. The value of the neutral interest rate in Mexico for the next five years is estimated based on Taylor's rule and a co-integrated vector autoregression (VAR) model (CVAR). The results suggest that the monetary policy rate is above the neutral interest rate, which, combined with the potential international rate cut, could grant the central bank for almost the entire six-year period a degree of freedom to maintain its rate below the current level; in the short term the current monetary policy rate could be cut by at least 25 points without risking convergence to the inflation target. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes debt securitization in underdeveloped countries, using the case of Argentina, Mexico, and Brazil. We argue that the three countries have had a significant increase in the issuance of debt securities. However, the nature of the securities issued is different in each nation. In the case of Argentina, the increase in international debt securities in circulation has to do with the issuance of government securities. In Mexico, the increase is more related to the new financing needs of Mexican non-financial corporations. While in Brazil, the increase in the issuance of debt securities is due to a combination of both factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the evolution of skill premia and its relationship with the productive structure in 16 countries in Latin America, using microdata from household surveys and information from national accounts for the 1991-2015 period. The evidence suggests that the change in the productive structure is significantly correlated to the dynamics of wage inequality. In particular, when the share in total value added of sectors that are more intensive in high-skilled labor grows, the skill premia increases significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discrimination in the labor market is an important issue in most countries of the world. In such a context, this paper uses nationally representative data from the 1990-2017 National Socio-Economic Characterization Survey to explore the gender wage gap and discrimination in Chile. Different versions of the well-known decomposition of Blinder and Oaxaca are applied to measure the wage gap and to decompose its possible causes and the variables involved. Finally, wage estimates are corrected for selection bias, and decomposition by income quantum is studied. The results of the different methodologies show a decrease in wage discrimination when we look at the full 1990-2017 period, but the decrease was mainly in the 1990-2003 period, and then has remained relatively constant until 2017. Wage discrimination reached 49.7% in 2017, where 45.2% corresponded to women's subpayments and 4.5% to men's overpayments, a structure that is maintained throughout the period studied. On the other hand, it shows that estimating uncorrected wage discrimination due to selection bias underestimates the wage discrimination suffered by women in Chile. Finally, it proves that a large part of wage discrimination occurs mainly in the extremes of lower and higher income distribution. This work also adds evidence to the fact that women who are active in the labor market have more years of education than men, but for reasons that classical theory cannot explain, they obtain a lower wage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Michał Kalecki wrote an article on government expenditures financed by taxes on profits, which set forth an interesting debate between him and Keynes, the latter being the editor of the journal in which Kalecki's article was published. Later, in 1950s, Kalecki wrote a few empirical studies to substantiate his theory. Two of these papers dealt with the US economy, in which he adopted a novel method of analysis. However, his methodology did not have the deserved impact, even amongst his followers. This article revisits Kalecki's analysis to understand the recent evolution of the US economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a multidimensional reflection on the covid-19 pandemic. It states that the dominant analytical approach to the pandemic is medical and epidemiological, which leads to an underestimation of its social, economic and political causes and impacts. It also calls attention to the fact that scientific knowledge on covid-19 is still scarce and contradictory. The essay starts with a review and analysis of the magnitude of the problem compared to other causes of death in Mexico, and a review of how different social and economic conditions seem crucial for the frequency and severity of the disease. It examines the behavior of the medical industrial complex relative to the production of vaccines, drugs and other medical devices, and detects divergent conducts: one highly speculative, including financial speculation, and another that, for the time being, has promised not to take a profit. Finally, there are some considerations concerning how the virus is changing political processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This paper assesses the sustainability of the Spanish economic development model for the period 1980-2010. Moreover, we carry out a comparative analysis with the biggest European economies: France, Germany, Italy and United Kingdom. Methods: In order to achieve the aim of this paper, co-integration techniques have been applied. Through these techniques, we have analyzed the long-term relationship between consumption of renewable and non-renewable and economic development and pollution during the period 1980-2010. After a selection process, for Spain we have used to measure growth the GDP and the Gross Capital Formation; to measure development, the Index of Human Development and Social Capital; for pollution, the emissions of CO2 and consumption of renewable energy in the electricity system and oil consumption for the consumption of renewable and non-renewable, respectively. Secondly, we have compared the results obtained for the Spanish economy with the four biggest economies in the European Union: Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom. Given the availability of data for these countries Gross Capital Formation and Human Development Index have been excluded from the analysis. Results: First, a positive impact of consumption of renewable and renewable energy on growth and development is found for the five countries under study, with a greater impact of non-renewable energy. For the three countries for which the data for CO2 emissions are available (Spain, France and the UK), it is observed that the reducing effect of renewable energy on CO2 emissions is less than the polluting effect of non-renewable energy. Second, for Spain, Germany and France, the data point out a feedback process between the consumption of non-renewable and growth and development, which is not observed with the consumption of renewable energy. Conclusions: In order to reconcile the objective of growth with the reduction of pollution, more moderate growth rates are required. The growth model of the countries analyzed stimulates consumption of non-renewable energy, but not renewable. This result points out the requirement of designing policies that encourage the substitution of non-renewable energy by renewable energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last two decades, the monetary aggregate M3, reference aggregate of the Eurpoean Central Bank (ecb), has experienced a strong tendency towards its accumulation in the most liquid components: currency in circulation and overnight deposits, to the detriment of the modalities of deposits with an agreement maturity, and other less weighting components. Although this behaviour is compatible with a long period of low interest rates, it is important to look for other explanations, complementary and/or alternative, to the strong concentration of money demand in the most liquid components. This drift of the reference aggregate can have consequences on price stability, the ultimate objective of the ecb, while it can be a potential factor in the modification of saving behavior. In this paper, along with the analysis of the evolution of the seven components of M3 1997-2018, we present the results of an empirical work on the stability of the relationship between the demand for money and the macroeconomic variables that determine it. The results show that the strong financial disturbances and uncertainties as a result of the crisis, as well as the unconventional decisions on monetary policy adopted by the ecb have some explanatory capacity of the studied phenomenon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following the indicators used by the International Labor Organization (ILO) in its studies and the publication Reversing Pension Privatizations: Rebuilding Public Pension Systems in Eastern Europe and Latin America (2018a), this analysis evaluates pension systems in Mexico in order to contextualize the debate regarding the following questions: Are privatizations a failure? Do we have to reverse privatizations or just reform the current system? Would it be enough? Or, do we have to build an integral system of public pensions? This paper presents a diagnosis of the current situation of the pension system in Mexico, in order to contextualize possible responses and the main challenges and circumstances for Mexican society. The lack and insufficiency of pensions for an aging population where most people work in the informal sector with low-income jobs poses a challenge to the pension system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The frustration in Latin America with neoliberal economic reforms has reawakened a number of debates, especially about inequality (Palma, 2019a) and productivity growth --in 2018, the region's average productivity was just 8% higher than in 1980, equivalent to an annual average growth rate of just 0.2%--. Meanwhile, in the previous cycle, from 1950 to 1980, productivity levels more than doubled, with an annual growth rate of 2.8%. One of these debates is related to the problem of deindustrialization --in particular, the question of whether it is "premature" or if it includes a component of "Dutch disease"--. This paper analyses the role of manufacturing in economic growth, and shows the dynamics of that deindustrialization in high-income as well as middle-income countries. It concludes that the success of emerging Asia is rooted in its ideological pragmatism, which led it in the 1980s and early 1990s to use reforms as a mechanism for strengthening and accelerating their already ambitious processes of industrialization --not for carrying out a "non-creative destruction" of their manufacturing, as happened in almost all of Latin America--. This in spite of the fact that many of the industrialization processes in emerging Asia suffered, in its time, from similar problems to those experienced by Latin American industrialization, if not worse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]