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This paper explores the properties of dynamic aggregate housing models. In conventional models, in response to demand shocks the primary adjustment mechanism is through prices and changes in housing supply. However, the size of the supply response depends on the price elasticity of supply and in countries such as the UK where the elasticity is low, house prices can rise sharply, worsening affordability. But this ignores the roles of housing risk and credit markets which affect the user cost of capital and the paper demonstrates that models that explicitly introduce a housing risk premium have an additional price stabiliser. The importance is shown through stochastic simulations; these simulations also demonstrate that conventional models used for forecasting and policy analysis may overstate future house price growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This introduction to the virtual special issue surveys the development of spatial housing economics from its roots in neoclassical theory, through more recent developments in social interactions modelling, and touching on the role of institutions, path dependence and economic history. The survey also points to some of the more promising future directions for the subject that are beginning to appear in the literature. The survey covers elements of hedonic models, spatial econometrics, neighbourhood models, housing market areas, housing supply, models of segregation, migration, housing tenure, subnational house price modelling including the so-called ripple effect, and agent-based models. Possible future directions are set in the context of a selection of recent papers that have appeared in Urban Studies. Nevertheless, there are still important gaps in the literature that merit further attention, arising at least partly from emerging policy problems. These include more research on housing and biodiversity, the relationship between housing and civil unrest, the effects of changing age distributions – notably housing for the elderly – and the impact of different international institutional structures. Methodologically, developments in Big Data provide an exciting framework for future work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much of mainstream economic analysis assumes that markets adjust smoothly, through prices, to changes in economic conditions. However, this is not necessarily the case for local housing markets, whose spatial structures may exhibit persistence, so that conditions may not be those most suited to the requirements of modern-day living. Persistence can arise from the existence of transaction costs. The paper tests the proposition that housing markets in Inner London exhibit a degree of path dependence, through the construction of a three-equation model, and examines the impact of variables constructed for the 19th and early 20th centuries on modern house prices. These include 19th-century social structures, slum clearance programmes and the 1908 underground network. Each is found to be significant. The tests require the construction of novel historical datasets, which are also described in the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper constructs a housing market model to analyse conditions for different generations of households in the UK. Previous policy work has suggested that baby-boomers have benefitted at the expense of younger generations. The model relies on a form of financial accelerator in which existing homeowners reinvest a proportion of the capital gains on moving home. The model is extended to look at homeownership probabilities. It also explains why an increasing share of mortgages has gone to existing owners, despite market liberalisation and securitisation. In addition, the model contributes to the explanation of volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper considers the impact of existing land use patterns on housing supply price elasticities in local areas of England, under existing planning policies. The paper demonstrates that, despite common national planning policies, local supply responses to market pressures vary considerably, because of differences in historical land uses. The study area covers the Thames Gateway and Thames Valley, which lie to the east and west of London respectively. However, whereas the latter is one of the wealthiest areas of England, the former includes some of the highest pockets of deprivation and was a government priority area for increasing housing supply. Due to differences in historical land use and geography, the price elasticity in the least constrained area is approximately six times higher than the most constrained. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In the mid 1990s, Meen set out a series of propositions concerning the relationship between housing and the macro economy during the 1980s and early 1990s. This paper provides 10 further propositions for the early years of this century, taking into account recent research and policy concerns. The first five propositions concern housing market risk, whereas the remaining issues deal with the sustainability of homeownership. The empirical evidence presented finds that there is limited evidence for bubbles over the past 10 years and models of house prices are stable. Furthermore, housing possessions are unlikely to fall to the levels observed in the early 1980s. It is also suggested that the private rental market may not expand at the same rate as in the past 10 years, but there are risks to homeowners down the income distribution. Finally, the main beneficiaries of new affordability targets may be existing rather than new households. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers how empirical models of urban housing markets might be constructed as a basis for policy analysis. It is suggested that this is fundamentally more difficult than national or regional models, because of particular characteristics of urban markets-notably, the importance of social interactions, non-linearity and segregation. However, recent advances in the modelling of social interactions point to a possible way forward. The paper begins by reviewing some aspects of this literature and shows how the models generate non-linearities consistent with recent work on thresholds in local housing markets. Simple cellular automata are also used to demonstrate this point and how segregation may arise. A review follows of work on discrete choice models, which include social interactions within their structure. Bringing all the tools together, it is suggested that there is now the potential to construct urban housing models, although a great deal of theoretical and empirical work remains to be done. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

According to recent official projections, 4.4 million new households will be formed in England between 1991 and 2016. These estimates are based on a detailed analysis of demographic trends, but take no account of the effect of potential changes in economic conditions, particularly on the owner-occupancy rate. In this paper, we propose a new approach to modelling sustainable owner-occupancy which places less emphasis on demographics, but considers in more detail the role of market mechanisms through changes in house prices and rates of new construction. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

During the last ten years, macroeconomists have increasingly come to realise that there are important interactions between housing and the wider economy. In some cases, this realisation has come too late to avoid the severe oscillations in the economy that have characterised the period since the mid-1980s. This paper uses a macroeconometric model, specifically designed to capture the interactions, in order to reflect on the experience of the 1980s and early 1990s and to draw theoretical, empirical and policy conclusions in terms of ten propositions. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The UK mortgage market has undergone important structural changes in recent years. A consequence has been that households are no longer generally subject to mortgage rationing. In this paper we examine some of the results of this change for the housing market. We first construct a simple theoretical model of the housing and mortgage markets and show, as an illustration of the effect of exogenous changes in general, how mortgage tax relief abolition would have different results under alternative regimes. We then quantify these results using a fully estimated model. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]