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According to recent regulatory guidance, clinical trial objectives should be translated into estimands, i.e., precise descriptions of that what is to be estimated. Hence, estimands are to be formulated for influenza vaccine immunogenicity (IVI) trials, notably for one of the most popular immunogenicity trials, the non-inferiority trial. In this paper an estimand for this trial design is proposed. An estimand should state how intercurrent events are handled. Intercurrent events are events that occur after the start of the trial and that affect the endpoint's measurement or interpretation or prevent its observation. In IVI trials the intercurrent events of interest are immunological intercurrent events (IIEs). Major IIEs are identified, i.e., protocol deviations occurring during the trial that affect immunogenicity endpoints, and the consequences for the trial data collection are discussed. In the statistical analysis endpoint values that are missing or excluded from the analysis due to IIEs are to be substituted by plausible values, by means of multiple imputing. Replacing values are based on predictors of the endpoint. A distinction is made between mandatory and non-mandatory predictors. Mandatory predictors are predictors necessary to prevent biased prediction. Non-mandatory predictors are predictors that limit the additional variance due to the imputing. The four steps of the multiple imputing are explained, and available software is listed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background In the elderly, traditional influenza inactivated vaccines are often only modestly immunogenic, owing to immunosenescence. Given that adjuvantation is a means of enhancing the immune response, the trivalent inactivated vaccine adjuvanted with MF59 (MF59-TIV) was specifically designed to overcome this problem. Considering that, for ethical reasons, the absolute effectiveness of an influenza vaccine in the elderly cannot be demonstrated in placebo-controlled studies, the present study aimed to assess the effectiveness of MF59-TIV in preventing influenza-related outcomes in the elderly. Methods We conducted a systematic review of observational studies aimed at evaluating the effectiveness of MF59-TIV against influenza-related outcomes. Results of single studies were pooled whenever possible. Results Of the 1993 papers screened, 11 (6 case-control, 3 cohort and 2 prospective case-control) studies were identified. Hospitalization due to pneumonia/influenza and laboratory-confirmed influenza were reported in more than one study, while other outcomes (influenza-like illness, cardio- and cerebrovascular accidents) were investigated only by one study each. Pooled analysis of four case-control studies showed an adjusted MF59-TIV effectiveness of 51% (95% CI: 39–61%) against hospitalizations for pneumonia/influenza among community-dwelling seniors. Pooled results of the adjusted vaccine effectiveness against laboratory-confirmed influenza were also high (60.1%), although the 95% CI passed through zero (−1.3 to 84.3%). Other single community-based studies showed very high effectiveness of MF59-TIV in preventing hospitalizations for acute coronary [87% (95% CI: 35–97%)] and cerebrovascular [93% (95% CI: 52–99%)] events. MF59-TIV proved highly effective [94% (95% CI: 47–100%] in reducing influenza-like illness among institutionalized elderly. Furthermore, MF59-TIV displayed greater efficacy than non-adjuvanted vaccines in preventing hospitalizations due to pneumonia/influenza [adjusted risk ratio 0.75 (95% CI: 0.57–0.98)] and laboratory-confirmed influenza [adjusted odds ratio 0.37 (0.14–0.96)]. Conclusions Our results suggest that MF59-TIV is effective in reducing several influenza-related outcomes among the elderly, especially hospitalizations due to influenza-related complications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]