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The Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable to the effects of global warming including more frequent and intense natural disasters. Seawater inundation, one of the most serious disasters, could damage human property and life. Regional sea level rise, highest astronomic tide, vertical land motions, and extreme sea level could result in episodic, recurrent, or permanent coastal inundation. Therefore, assessing potential flooding areas is a critical task for coastal management plans. In this study, a simulation of the static flooding situation in the southwest coast of Taiwan (Tainan city) at the end of this century was conducted by using a combination of the Taiwan Digital Elevation Model (DEM), regional sea level changes reconstructed by tide gauge and altimetry data, vertical land deformation derived from leveling and GPS data, and ocean tide models. In addition, the extreme sea level situation, which typically results from high water on a spring tide and a storm surge, was also evaluated by the joint probability method using tide gauge records. To analyze the possible static flood risk and avoid overestimation of inundation areas, a region-based image segmentation method was employed in the estimated future topographic data to generate the flood risk map. In addition, an extreme sea level situation, which typically results from high water on a spring tide and a storm surge, was also evaluated by the joint probability method using tide gauge records. Results showed that the range of inundation depth around the Tainan area is 0–8 m with a mean value of 4 m. In addition, most of the inundation areas are agricultural land use (60% of total inundation area of Tainan), and two important international wetlands, 88.5% of Zengwun Estuary Wetlands and 99.5% of Sihcao Wetlands (the important Black-faced Spoonbills Refuge) will disappear under the combined situation. The risk assessment of flooding areas is potentially useful for coastal ocean and land management to develop appropriate adaptation policies for preventing disasters resulting from global climate change.

The Taiwanese government has established a complete tide gauge network along the coastline for accurate sea-level monitoring. In this study, we analyze several factors impacting the determination of absolute or geocentric sea-level trends—including ocean tides, inverted barometer effect, datum shift, and vertical land motion—using tide gauge records near Taiwan, from 1993–2015. The results show that datum shifts and vertical land motion have a significant impact on sea-level trends with a respective average contribution of 7.3 and 8.0 mm/yr, whereas ocean tides and inverted barometer effects have a relatively minor impact, representing 9% and 14% of the observed trend, respectively. These results indicate that datum shifts and vertical land motion effects have to be removed in the tide gauge records for accurate sea-level estimates. Meanwhile, the estimated land motions show that the southwestern plain has larger subsidence rates, for example, the Boziliao, Dongshi, and Wengang tide gauge stations exhibit a rate of 24–31 mm/yr as a result of groundwater pumping. We find that the absolute sea-level trends around Taiwan derived from tide gauges or satellite altimetry agree well with each other, and are estimated to be 2.2 mm/yr for 1993–2015, which is significantly slower than the global average sea-level rise trend of 3.2 mm/yr from satellite altimeters. Finally, a recent hiatus in sea-level rise in this region exhibits good agreement with the interannual and decadal variabilities associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation.