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This document provides a summary of a hackathon event organized by the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) and Aon, a reinsurance company, to explore the social impacts of climate change. The hackathon focused on developing consistent scenarios for future climate risk, understanding uncertainties in European windstorm modeling, and providing real-time context for extreme weather events. The teams developed tools and methodologies to assess the severity and potential impact of extreme events on insured losses. The collaboration between the MoJ, Aon, and participants from various institutions aims to further research and develop papers and grant proposals in these areas. [Extracted from the article]

Landfalling tropical cyclones are essentially unheard of in Tanzania. It has been suggested that Cyclone Kenneth, which occurred in 2019, was the first tropical cyclone to make landfall in Tanzania. This paper brings to light tropical cyclones that made landfall in Tanzania in 1872 and 1952. We draw on eyewitness accounts and meteorological observations to raise the profile of these seemingly forgotten tropical cyclones, which devastated lives and economic activities. The severe societal impacts, and potential link to climate change, of landfalling tropical cyclones in Tanzania encourages further investigation into the drivers of tropical cyclones in the southwest Indian Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This means an increased likelihood of more frequent instances of high tunnel temperatures, or higher peak tunnel temperatures, which have implications for both human health and the operation of the LU network. As the climate is changing, Transport for London (TfL), which owns and operates the London Underground network, is faced with operational challenges during periods of extreme weather, especially with heat, on its assets. The warmest LU lines at present (Bakerloo and Central) estimated daily maximum tunnel temperatures on both lines to exceed 30°C throughout the year in both scenarios by the 2080s, including some stations experiencing several months frequently exceeding daily maximum tunnel temperatures of 35°C in the RCP 8.5 scenario. This requires combining reliable, daily spatiotemporal weather data (in this case, St. James's Park weather station data), such as daily minimum, mean and maximum temperatures across an area with fault data, then normalising across the study area by the frequency of temperature intervals and number of assets at that location (Fisher, [10]). [Extracted from the article]

The paper by Simon Proud on p. 292 is a particularly interesting investigation, not least to me as an aviation forecaster. 'Analysis of aircraft flights near convective weather over Europe' examines the likelihood that an airliner will encounter the effects of cumulonimbus clouds, which are a significant cause of turbulence and pose the risks of lightning and large hail, in busy controlled airspace. Not surprisingly, summer flights over the mountains of southern Europe are associated with the highest likelihood of these encounters. The effects of climate change are likely to be greatest in the seasonally-dry areas of the tropics. On p. 285, Bulle Dabasso and Michael Okomoli examine a local rainfall trend in 'Changing pattern of local rainfall: analysis of a 50-year record in central Marsabit, northern Kenya'. The authors find a general decrease in rainfall accumulations, in particular in the important 'long-rains' season, although the pattern is rather more complex in the 'short-rains' season. Their findings are important, in particular, for farmers, but also have implications for the population in general. Staying on the theme of climate, the Met Office National Climate Information Centre describes the climatic anomalies experienced in the United Kingdom in summer 2015 in their regular seasonal summary on p. 291. Ships' trails have long been an interest to readers of Weather, but Michael Bennett and Simon Christie turn to the related observation of sea spray in their paper 'Observations of sea spray using a rapid-scanning Lidar' on p. 297. Their observations were made during a period of observations from Dungeness, Kent, overlooking the Strait of Dover and show the power of lidar to make observations of both sea spray and ships' trails. Finally - and returning to the topic of climate - we have a paper that demonstrates the characteristic variability of anthropogenic climate change, the rising temperature change at two stations in rural Somerset apparently having stalled. This interesting result is presented by Colin Clark in 'Two rural temperature records in Somerset, UK' on p. 280. Although surprising to some, this levelling out of mean temperature deserves to be recorded. However, as this may be viewed as a challenge to the understanding of the Royal Meteorological Society, the vast majority of climate scientists and the Editor, my Editorial on p. 278 presents the counter-argument. I hope that Dr Clark's paper will spur a renewed interest in the subject of climate change and a robust discussion in the pages of Weather. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a short biography of Sir John Mason, part of Weather's series of pen portraits of Past Presidents of the Royal Meteorological Society. This biography is longer than a normal pen portrait to reflect Sir John Mason's exceptional and wide‐ranging achievements and to show how he contributed to the debate about climate change. We include a discussion of his early years, particularly his pioneering work in cloud physics. We particularly review the key activities of the Met Office with which he was closely involved in his years as Director General, followed by his activities after retirement and his main awards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This November 2017 issue focusses on climatic change. It coincides with the meetings of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference Of Parties (COP23) to be held in Bonn, Germany between 6 and 17 November. We have included five papers which cover different aspects of the climate issue. In 'Recent United Kingdom and global temperature variations' on p. 323, Tim Osborne, Phil Jones and Manoj Joshi review global and UK temperature trends, setting the UK climate and its recent trends in the context of world climate, laying out the uncertainties that climatologists must grapple with, as well as showing that human influence is the main factor in long-term changes of climate. Have you ever wondered how nations approach the need to negotiate changes in human activity resulting from the evidence that we are changing global climate? Well, David Warrilow reviews the use of scientific evidence in the development of the international response to climate change on p. 330 in 'Science and the international climate negotiations'. On p. 340, Jason Lowe, Nigel Arnell, Rachel Warren, Ajay Gambhir, Dan Bernie and Erica Thompson discuss the impacts of different levels of warming and how warming might be limited through programmes to limit the output of greenhouse gases in 'Avoiding dangerous climate: results from the AVOID2 programme'. Our fourth main paper asks 'Can Arctic warming influence UK extreme weather?' Edward Hanna, Richard Hall and James Overland consider the possible links between the loss of Arctic sea ice and extreme weather over the UK on p. 346. On page 353, Emily Shuckburgh, Dann Mitchell and Peter Stott provide a short review paper, 'Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria: how natural were these 'natural disasters'?' on the formation and effects of the hurricanes that affected many areas surrounding the Caribbean Sea last September. Earlier this year, the Royal Meteorological Society issued a Collective Global Climate Statement supported by a coalition of 33 meteorological and climate societies across the world. This acknowledges the overwhelming scientific evidence that our planet is warming, largely due to emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities and calls for prompt, sustained, global, collaborative, evidence-based action to avoid the largest impacts of climate change. This evidence shows that there is a proportional relationship between greenhouse gas concentrations and temperature, so that as greenhouse gases increase in our atmosphere, temperatures - and the related effects of higher temperatures - increase.' This month's issue is the result of a decision by the Society to enhance its activities on climate change whilst maintaining its core interest in weather. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An introduction is presented which discusses various topics within the issue including range of instruments to measure changes in local weather in France, papers on meteorological tsunami and the flooding in Chennai in November 2015.

We open this month's issue of Weather with our annual review 'Snow patches in England and Wales during spring and summer 2015' (p. 335). Despite relative warmth during the winter of 2014-15, Iain Cameron reveals that the prevalent southwesterly winds brought large amounts of snow to the high ground of Britain and that patches remained in some northeast-facing hollows until May, or even June. Next we turn to a new system for long-range temperature forecasting in Nigeria in 'Preliminary results of temperature modelling in Nigeria using neural networks' (p. 336). Daniel Okoh and his co-authors show that computerised systems may be employed to predict temperatures as much as months or years into the future, employing so-called 'neural networks' to 'learn' weather patterns, at least in this part of the tropics and that root-mean-square errors are less than 2 degC across a range of climate zones in the country. At school, many of us may have learned about Rossby waves (the relatively large, but very variable atmospheric systems characteristic of the extra-tropics), but how well do we really know them - and do they exist? Anders Persson, in his usual challenging way, asks this in a letter on p. 344, the essence of his argument that, as they are baroclinic, we should treat extra-tropical waves as formed by temperature differences, so they do not really fit the barotropic dynamical system proposed by Rossby! Indeed, it might be better to regard most synoptic-scale waves simply as 'long waves'. Our final paper of the year concerns the effects of tropical cyclone Phet. In 'Analysis of the effect of Tropical Cyclone Phet on the occurrence of heavy rainfall and floods in Chabahar, Iran' (p. 348), Yousef Ghavidel Rahimi and his co-authors discuss the recent occurrence of tropical cyclones in the northern Arabian Sea and suggest some reasons for the damaging heavy rains brought by Phet in eastern coastal Iran, fitting well with the Weather News report (p. 334) about this season's unusual occurrence of tropical storms in Somalia and Yemen. The Editorial Board and Editor wish all our readers our very best for Christmas 2015 and the coming year. We would like to thank all the authors who have submitted papers, articles and letters for considering Weather, as well as devoting their time to the interesting investigations and reports we have received. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following on from the article in July's issue on the understanding of climate change, demonstrated by n-gram phrases in books published since 1850, Ifor Williams opens this issue with an analysis of the possible public confusion about the subject caused by news reports in Climate change confusion - who is responsible? This poignant Viewpoint clearly shows how our perception can be affected by these news reports, even though they are often ill-conceived in trying to make the slow rate of global warming something easily understood, or stating that, because change is slow and somewhat irregular, it might not be real. Putting this into perspective, our next article is the annual review, Global and regional climate in 2014 by John Kennedy, Colin Morice and David Parker of the Met Office Hadley Centre. Here is shown clearly the continuing change of climate, last year having been almost certainly the joint warmest on record, repeating the global warmth of 2010. The situation is, as always, complex, although most of the world had a warm year, only some central areas of continents experiencing a cold year, overall. Precipitation anomalies were yet more complex, but the signal for anthropogenic climate change is clear. Our need to get reliable data on river levels and the associated likelihood of flooding are laid out in Colin Clark's A 247-year flood record on the upper Stour, Dorset, UK. The relatively short records we have for the levels of many rivers in the UK makes planning and preparation for flooding difficult, but this paper addresses the issue, using the long data record from the Stour, carefully describing the difficulties associated with any lack of full understanding of the response of rivers to rainfall. It is a well-established tenet of climatology that the mid-latitude westerlies bring warmer, wetter conditions than might otherwise be expected in the countries of the western continental margins. The warmth is related to the temperature of the sea surface, so variability of sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic are a significant influence on the climate of Ireland, as described by G. D. McCarthy, E. Gleeson and S. Walsh in The influence of ocean variations on the climate of Ireland. In his letter: The narrow cold-frontal rainband of 22/23 November 2013 C. Kidd adds to the information presented by Martin Young in his paper in the October 2014 issue: An unusual case of line convection - the birth of a classical cold front over the UK, showing how good an example of 'linear convection' this was. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trend analysis is an ideal way of investigating first‐hand information about climate change; climate variables exhibit trends on variety of scales, and an understanding of these trends can be used to make estimates about the future of the climate. The objective of this paper is to examine temporal variations in climate by analysing climatic variables. Angul is one of the hottest districts in India, with a maximum summer temperature of 50°C recorded in 2005. Climate data for the period 1901 to 2015 have been statistically analysed to investigate variations in climate in the region. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall rank test, Pearson's correlation, Kendall's rank correlation, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model were used to identify diurnal, monthly, seasonal, and annual changes in temperature, precipitation, vapour pressure, potential evapotranspiration and crop evapotranspiration. The results of these analyses reveal the presence of both increasing and decreasing trends for a number of climate variables. Temperature has increased drastically over the last three decades. The average minimum and maximum temperatures for 1901 were 20 and 31°C, respectively; these values increased to 23 and 33°C in 2015. The Auto‐Regressive Integrated Moving Average model projected a significant rise in seasonal temperature and a decreasing trend in rainfall; these results are considered to be an early warning sign for future extreme climate events. Significant changes in climate have been identified through statistical analysis of climate data from 1901 to 2015. A statistically significant positive trend has been identified in the temperature data: the average minimum and maximum temperatures for 1901 are 20 and 31°C, increasing to 23 and 33°C in 2015. Correlation techniques found a negative correlation between rainfall and temperature. Projections made using the ARIMA model predicted significant changes in temperature and rainfall, indicating the possibility of the continued occurrence of extreme climate events such as heatwaves and drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information on the July 1996 issue of the periodical "Weather" which discusses topics including the evidence of climate change, the temperature in Europe and the warming in western Greenland, and the lower-stratospheric winds in London, England.

This month, we begin a series of guides to the science of climate change. The first of this bimonthly series of Climate Change Shorts, ‘What do we mean by climate change?’ by David Warrilow and the Climate Science Communications Group, is on p. 251. The series will simply answer the basic main questions about this important part of our science, step by step. To begin the issue, though, we have a review of optical phenomena by Mila Zinkova: ‘Ice haloes – history, lore and science’. This fascinating paper on p. 239 describes the requirements for haloes to be observed, their mention in literature from ancient times and outlines an unusual halo display seen in San Francisco on 23 February 2016. Every forecaster, after a few months or years in the job, has a tale describing when a forecast or a broadcast went badly wrong! It is a learning experience we must all go through. On p. 247, Ken Kemp describes his experiences in ‘Bad days at the office. Extreme weather events’. Forecasting and observations in incised orography – typical of much of the higher ground of the British Isles – presents a challenge to the forecaster. ‘A short climatological study of cold air pools and drainage flows in small valleys’ by Bradley Jemmett‐Smith, Andrew Ross and Peter Sheridan provides useful insight on this subject, beginning on p. 256. The North Atlantic Oscillation is a major indicator of progression or the lack of it in Western Europe. On p. 262, ‘Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation at local and regional scales: a case study of the Belgian coast’ by Anne‐Lise Montreuil and Margaret Chen shows how significant the effects of this oscillation are to forecasters. We finish this month’s issue looking back at the development of the links between meteorological societies in Europe, completing a review, the first part having appeared in May’s issue (p. 149). ‘Associating weather societies across Europe, Part 2’ by René Morin and Jon Wieringa on p. 268 reflects the warmth between members of European societies as they established this co‐operative venture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We begin our April issue with a paper describing the developments and effects of storm ‘Katie’, which brought significant effects to the United Kingdom on Easter Monday, 2015. In ‘Storm Katie – Rapid cyclogenesis and damaging winds of Easter Monday 2016’ on p. 103, Steven Ramsdale and Jason Kelly describe the meteorological developments that developed this low‐pressure system, the uncertainties associated with its development, the warnings issued and the damage caused, in part limited by its presence on a Bank Holiday. On p. 109, Colin Clark describes a flood 112 years ago in ‘The storm and flood of 13 May 1906 at Mells, Somerset, UK’ Dr Clark discusses the significance of the flood and its possible return period using synoptic charts of the time and descriptions published in local newspapers immediately following the event, emphasising our need to know more about floods in history. One of the least explored parts of the Middle East is the Empty Quarter. In the 1940s and 50s, the English explorer and writer Wilfred Thesiger crossed this area of extreme aridity. His discoveries and travels are described by Michael de Villiers in ‘Thesiger's weather in the Arabian Peninsula’ on p. 120. On p. 123, we present Iain Cameron and Adam Watson's annual review of the survival of snow on Scottish mountains. The overall warmth of last year is reflected in this year's title: ‘No Scottish snow patches survive until winter 2017/2018’. Weather and climate have a significant effect on human life and this journal often describes significant weather events, especially those that have affected Britain. But the local variability of weather may arguably present a more significant effect – not least, in the Developing World. Many factors affect school attendance, but weather and climate, including drought, rainstorms and dust pose important challenges, sometimes because of the secondary effects. Joseph Adejuwon discusses these effects in the Sahel zone in ‘Climate variability and the dichotomy in male–female school attendance: a case study of Zamfara State in semi‐arid Nigeria’ on p. 125. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This issue includes a great variety of meteorological topics, including fog forecasting, the measurement of climatic changes as reflected in soil temperatures, the flooding from a thunderstorm, the need to conserve water in a desert region, the communicationnof uncertainty and the relationship of snow and ice with literature in both East and West. Fog forecasting remains difficult for forecasters: numerical models provide some guidance, but both empirical and numerical methods have significant deficiencies. To add to well-established empirical methods, we start with a revised treatment that should aid forecasts of radiation fog, as explained by Anne Barber and Matt Woods in 'The adapted Middle Wallop technique: a new method of forecasting the fog point' on p. 255. On p. 260 we move on to an examination of soil temperatures as markers of climate, as described by J Webb, Barbara Amon, Madhu Subedi and Michael Fullen in 'Temporal changes in soil temperature at Wolverhampton, UK and Hohe Warte, Vienna, Austria 1976-2010'. Rising temperature is evident in their results, but to varying degrees. It will be interesting to see how these measurements continue to change - a marker that is insulated, at least to some extent, from short-period variation. M. Lickiss, K. J. Mulder, A. Black, A. J. Charlton-Perez, R. A. McCloy and R. Chandler look at how forecasters treat the complexity of their science and the associated uncertainty in 'Developing a quick guide on presenting data and uncertainty' on p. 266. Getting an appropriate balance, so that the customer knows what is meant, but weather is neither under-, nor over-forecast, remains a difficulty and this paper describees a suitable methodology. Ice and snow have featured in the literature of both East and West, often in an alegorical way. Hisami Nakamura and Julyan Cartwright have already described the early history of ice and snow described in literature in the first two parts of their series. On p. 272, 'Hot ice and wondrous strange snow - a history of ice and snow - part 3' they move on, concentrating on Twentieth Century poetry and novels. Just over 20 years ago, heavy thundery rain fell in West Dorset and parts of Devon, as described by Andrew Sibley in 'Severe thunderstorm and flooding in East Devon on 7 August 1997' on p. 276. Andrew presents the development of the storm and its effects clearly and the requirements - as well as possible limitations - are evident. On p. 280, we move on to 'Methodology for the determination of trends for climatic and hydrometric parameters upstream of the Dez Dam' by A. Adib, A. Navaseri and B. Shenasa. Iran - despite its mountainous interior - is a desert contry and the south of the nation sources much of its water from reservoirs. The expected water levels are strongly dependent on precipitation, so it is increasingly necessary to measure river flow and relate it to other meteorological measurements - especially in a time of changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

REFERENCES 1 Hot Air: The Inside Story of the Battle Against Climate Change Denial Peter Stott Atlantic Books, 2021 Hardback £18-99, 329 pp ISBN 978-1-83-895248-8 Hot Air: The Inside Story of the Battle Against Climate Change Denial Peter Stott Atlantic Books, 2021 Hardback £18-99, 329 pp ISBN 978-1-83-895248-8 GRAPH This book I think will become a must-read in the burgeoning genre of popular climate science books. For Stott, climate change's deniers are simply incomprehensible barriers to positive action on climate change. [Extracted from the article]

Better weather and climate forecasts are needed to maximise the ability of societies worldwide to prepare for climate change. This paper summarises work regarding the hypothesis that increasing the resolution of global models to achieve this aim could be done with existing computer technology by reducing the precision of the model variables to increase efficiency. A method of testing this idea carried out using computer simulations of the idealised Lorenz '96 atmosphere is explained. Preliminary results suggest that high-resolution, reduced precision forecasts outperform low-resolution ones. If these results also apply to real-world models, the technique could yield substantial benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Other processes that drive heatwaves include sea surface temperature patterns and soil moisture feedback. For the UK, the Met Office defines a heatwave over a location as when it records maximum temperatures greater than or equal to a temperature threshold for at least three consecutive days. [Extracted from the article]

The article discusses the development and relevance of the Campbell-Stokes surface solar radiation recorder. It notes that the sunshine data recorder invented by John Francis Campbell and modified by George Gabriel Stokes has become the standard instrument in meteorological stations across Great Britain. The sunshine recorder has proven its usefulness in understanding the variability and climatic change with periodic increase or decrease data in solar radiation.

Phenology is the science of observing the response of plants and animals to changes in the weather and climate. Gilbert White, William Markwick and Robert Marsham pioneered this field of study 200 years ago. This article looks at their work, at recent analysis of their observations and at new, present‐day work on phenology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projected changes in rainfall extremes Projected heavy rainfall Heavy rainfall is defined here as the days with rainfall above 10mm. As the region continues to suffer from rainfall extremes, it becomes important that policy makers and users of climate information are kept abreast with projected rainfall changes in the near future to form the basis of agricultural adaptation planning to build the resilience of the smallholder rain dependent households. Results and discussion Historical rainfall trends Analysis of observed rainfall data from the GMet shows an increasing variability of rainfall at both annual and multi-decadal scales (Figure 2). Downscaling of an ensemble of eight Regional Climate Models forced with five Global Climate Models was performed for the emission scenarios pathways RCP 2.6 and 8.5 using observed daily rainfall data from 1980 to 2014 over northern Ghana. [Extracted from the article]

Recent research on snow cover patterns over recent decades is reviewed for GB. Interpretation for upland areas is complicated by data availability issues. Nevertheless, two distinct features can be highlighted. Firstly, a general relationship of average yearly snow cover duration with mean temperature. This relationship is apparently non‐linear indicating that snow cover duration is especially sensitive to a defined mean temperature range. Secondly, that snow cover can be rather variable from year to year, or over multi‐year phases. This variability has been related to the frequency of synoptic‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns including the North Atlantic Oscillation. These two features are used to contextualise recent and likely future trends in snow cover. It is suggested that there may be different patterns of variability in some mountain areas compared to the adjacent lowlands. This is associated with combined effects of temperature and precipitation during exposure to different air masses. Suggestions are made for improving snow cover observations to further investigate these issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we study the historical temperature and precipitation series for Turin and investigate the origins and effects of the city's urban heat island. The data under study are part of some of the longest meteorological data series for the whole of Italy. The findings detailed here are the result of historical research and the retrieval of data regarding climate parameters and associated metadata. We performed quality control assessments and used a homogenisation process to remove possible errors which may have occurred in the recording of the data. We also analysed changes and trends in climate and climatic index data for a 147‐year period (1870–2016), and compared thermometric data from four rural stations with the Turin series to evaluate the urban heat island effect. Finally, we assessed a number of empirical models based on the number of inhabitants, the extent of urban growth and the increase in private and public transport usage in Turin to identify the urban heat island's evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The scientific consensus on the subject of climate change has not eliminated the existence of climate change denial. In this study we investigate how two distinct demographics perceive climate change. Questionnaires were employed to assess whether, following lectures on the subject, participants maintained their original position or reconsidered their stance on climate change. Most participants' beliefs were in accordance with scientific findings. No participant denied that global warming is a reality. After being presented with an up‐to‐date scientific overview of the subject, the majority of participants disagreed that mass media communications regarding climate change constituted a reliable source of information. The demographics evaluated in this study are potential opinion‐makers and it is therefore of paramount importance to evaluate their level of knowledge about such a serious and urgent issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study was conducted to examine how climate change is perceived by a rural community in Limpopo Province, South Africa, and to investigate how such changes affect endemic plant species upon which community members depend for their livelihoods. The initiatives employed by community members to preserve endemic plants which have cultural value are also examined. The results of the study were obtained from semi‐structured interviews with traditional health practitioners and other community members. It was found that participants' perceptions of the current state of climate change were linked to their observations of changes in temperature and rainfall patterns. Interviewees reported having experienced rising temperatures in the form of an increased frequency of excessively hot summers, as well as warmer winters. Rainfall was described as scarce, and rain episodes were characterised by more frequent thunderstorms. These observations have been confirmed in an independent analysis of meteorological observations by Ziervogel et al. (2014), who found that the mean annual temperature has increased by at least 1.5‐fold over the past five decades, and that extreme rainfall events have increased in frequency. The consequences of these changes in temperature and rainfall are significant and mostly negative, including poor plant growth, the withering of immature plants and the total loss of some useful species. However, members of this rural community have adopted indigenous conservation practices to limit the risk of indigenous plant loss and to maintain their cultural usage. Conservation practices adopted in the study area include the observance of cultural taboos, as well as other traditional customs, which restrict the harvesting and collection of useful plant materials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study is the selection of an appropriate coupled general circulation model (CGCM) for seasonal weather prediction of winter temperatures in two cities of Pakistan: Islamabad and Lahore. The data used in the study comprises 32 years (1969–2000) of real‐time observations from the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) and simulation data from CGCMs, including the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office (UKMO). This study attempts to establish accurate average seasonal weather predictions using a single‐model Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). Accurate seasonal prediction is important for developing an early warning system. The probabilistic forecast is calculated for the lower tercile (i.e. [0, 0.33]) keeping in view the trend of winter temperature for both cities. The initial conditions (ICs) obtained from the CGCMs have been alternatively processed for better results. The probabilistic forecast obtained from the EPS has been further verified against PMD observations and European Reanalysis Data (ERA‐40) using two different measures of probabilistic skill: the Brier Skill Score (BSS) and the Relative Operating Characteristic Skill Score (ROCSS). The ECMWF and UKMO models were used for both of the cities under study. The results demonstrate that the ECMWF model is more suitable for Islamabad, whereas the UKMO model is more suitable for Lahore. The results from these models might be generalised for other areas at the same latitudes with similar topographic and climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Scientists are confident that climate change will alter the rainfall patterns and quantities in the UK. Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond - a real-time event attribution revisited. Observed changes in rainfall and river flow records (Harrigan I et al i ., 2021) are broadly consistent with climate model projections indicating climate-induced changes are already happening. [Extracted from the article]

The article offers updates for the Royal Meteorological Society (RMeS) in 2014. RMeS has been touring Great Britain to promote the accreditation scheme of the Registered Meteorologist (RMeT). The Society Student Conference will be held at the Manchester Museum from July 2-4. The Climate Science Communications Group of RMeS was established to raise the effectiveness of communication on the science of climate change.

The article discusses the trends in heavy precipitation in the southern regions of the U.S. It refers to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report on the changes in global average temperatures that could drive changes in global hydrological cycles. It explains that warmer air can hold more water vapor increasing the moisture that could trigger more precipitation.

The article discusses the characteristics and historical records of weather and climate of Macaronesia. It states that the scholar Plutarch made the first observations of the climate of Macaronesia in his biography. It mentions that the subtropical high-pressure system of the Azores is responsible for the climate variability in the region. It says that the northeasterly directions of the trade winds have a significant effect on precipitation.

The article discusses the growing interest of public groups and the government of Great Britain in assessing their financial needs as climate change starts to affect the weather in the country. It mentions that climate change has caused extreme weather events including droughts, floods and heatwaves. According to the author, the change was due to the concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases caused by industrial activity.

Unlike GHGs most air pollutants have short lifetimes in the atmosphere (days to weeks) and their concentration is largely maintained by current emissions. Concern about climate change is mainly due to the build-up of greenhouses gases in the atmosphere, resulting from human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. Air pollutants can react chemically with each other to form secondary pollutants such as low-level ozone, itself a GHG. [Extracted from the article]

This brief note examines the different names and symbols that have been, and still are, used by scientists for the solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface and uses Ockham's razor to make the case for limiting their use to the internationally agreed term Global radiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based upon hourly air temperature values recorded at five coastal meteorological stations within the Southern Levantine basin during the period January 2007–December 2016, mean annual and mean monthly air temperature variations were analysed. The analysis also examined the linear trends of the mean monthly air temperature anomalies (MMATA). For the Southern Levantine basin, the results of the study revealed that 2010 was the hottest year over the region, while 2011 was the coldest. August 2015 recorded the highest mean monthly temperature over the period of investigation for the whole area of interest. January 2012, by contrast, recorded the lowest mean monthly air temperatures. This is true for all locations except Arish, which experienced its lowest mean monthly temperature record in January 2008. The results also revealed a general increasing trend in MMATA at four stations: Mersa Matruh, Ras El‐Teen, Port Said, and Arish. MMATA for Abu‐Qir appeared to be an exception with the slightly decreasing general trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore a possible relation between the recent Arctic amplification of global warming and changes in North Atlantic jet stream circulation and UK extreme weather conditions over the last decade. Such a link is supported by some tantalising clues from recent North Atlantic atmospheric circulation changes in summer and winter, but due to multiple factors affecting jet stream variability, we need extended records over at least a further decade to more reliably attribute these changes to global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The AVOID2 programme provided evidence for UK Government on what might constitute dangerous climate change and the feasibility of avoiding it. The programme quantified some of the benefits of moving from a world that warms by around 4-5°C to one limiting global warming to below or well below 2°C. Whilst there is evidence that this transition is feasible, it will require early action to reduce emissions and to develop the potential for large-scale deployment of a range of low carbon technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

2016 was another very warm year globally. Global temperatures in 2015 and 2016 were clearly the warmest two years on record. The record heat arose from the combined effect of the long-term temperature rise, attributed largely to greenhouse gases, and a temporary boost from the strong 2015/2016 El Niño event. Record low sea-ice extent was observed in a number of months in the Arctic, and December also saw record low extent for the Antarctic. Winter 2015/2016 was the second wettest winter on record for the UK. European-average temperatures in 2016 were nominally the third highest on record, slightly cooler than 2014 and 2015. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate is a key determinant of a number of disease pathogen lifecycles and disease transmission processes, particularly within tropical climates such as that experienced in Tanzania. Over recent decades, climate-related diseases such as malaria, chikungunya and bacterial meningitis have shown notable changes in their spatial distribution, with instances of both re-emergence and expansion beyond previously known boundaries being recorded. The unpredicted change in disease distribution already experienced in Tanzania has placed a significant burden on health systems and available resources, and whilst a number of factors are involved, climate remains the least understood aspect within epidemiological changes. Here we examine how climate extremes - particularly El Niño events - influence key environmental and climatic elements which promote epidemiological expansion. This study investigates the baseline climatology in five of Tanzania's varying climatological regions using the Met Office MIDAS dataset for the period 1985-1995. Its aim is to characterise the average climate and investigate the impacts of El Niño on the climatology of these regions, and to explore associated changes in disease distribution to allow identification, in the present, of changes which are anticipated to occur in the future to be put into context. The years 1997 and 2015 are used to examine the climate extremes imposed by El Niño events through statistical comparison methods. The results demonstrate that average climate conditions vary beyond previously documented observations, with each region of Tanzania responding differently to the onset of El Niño, thus potentially promoting a spatially variable disease response. These results are particularly marked for areas of greater climatic and environmental sensitivity within Tanzania. Once further understood, knowledge of this relationship could be applied to more local analysis and aid in predicting future outbreaks within Tanzania. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]