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This paper investigates the empirical linkages between production risks and the adoption of modern inputs among smallholder farmers in Tanzania and Uganda using household panel LSMS-ISA datasets. Applying a moment-based approach and a Mundlak-Chamberlain IV fixed effects model to control for unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity, the paper uses a translog production function to estimate the mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis of production. These estimated moments of production are then included in a multivariate adoption model to assess their effects on input adoption decisions. Results reveal that the first four moments of production significantly explain changes in the probability of adopting chemical fertilizer, improved seeds, and pesticides. While the use of these modern inputs is found to be risk decreasing, estimates suggest that the higher their purchasing costs, the greater the cost of farmers’ private risk bearing. Under the assumption of a moderate risk aversion, the risk premium amounts to 8.7% and 13.7% of the expected production revenues in Tanzania and Uganda, respectively. This willingness-to-pay is largely explained by production volatility and downside risk aversion and to a small extent by kurtosis aversion. The findings underscore the need to account for farmers’ preferences towards higher order moments when designing and implementing modern inputs’ adoption policies in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• By 2020, crop technologies developed in collaboration with CGIAR centers had spread to 221 million hectares worldwide; • Adoption of these technologies had raised economic welfare by about $47 billion per year; • In addition to improved varieties, the CGIAR has contributed to improved management of crop pests and natural resources; • CGIAR-related variety adoption was initially dominated by cereals, but has expanded to roots & tubers and grain legumes; • At least 92 countries have adopted CGIAR-related crop technologies, with India, China and Nigeria the largest beneficiaries. The international agricultural research centers that comprise the CGIAR got their start in the 1960s. They soon made major contributions to crop improvement in developing countries, particular in rice and wheat in Asia. Today, farmers can acquire new technologies from many sources, and evidence of whether the CGIAR continues to play an important role in crop improvement has become dated. This paper brings together an expanded set of evidence on the diffusion and productivity impact of CGIAR crop research through 2020, and breaks out these impacts by crop, region, and over time. By 2016–2020, CGIAR-related crop technologies had been adopted on at least 221 million hectares across Asia, Africa and Latin America, generating economic welfare gains of $47 billion annually. In the 2010s, technology adoption and welfare impacts were increasing by about $600 million annually, almost as much as in the 1990s. In the early days of the "Green Revolution," these welfare impacts were largely confined to rice and wheat in Asia, but in recent decades have grown to include a larger range of crops and geographies, notably cassava and maize in Sub-Saharan Africa. Although improved crop varieties have been the main technology through which CGIAR crop centers have achieved these impacts, CGIAR-related integrated pest management and natural resource management technologies have also made significant contributions to crop productivity. In addition to raising farm income, productivity gains in staple crops have lowered food prices, thereby benefitting the whole population. This is a key reason why agricultural productivity growth, and food crop productivity growth in particular, has had greater impacts on poverty reduction in low-income countries than comparable productivity growth in other sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • We propose a model that separates the impact of conflict between violent shocks and uncertainty. • We test the model using a survey with information on presence of armed groups. • We find households learn to live amid conflict, albeit at a lower income trajectory. • If presence of armed actors prolongs, farmers shift to activities with short-term yields and low profitability. • If violence intensifies, farmers concentrate on subsistence activities. Abstract This paper examines the effect of conflict on agricultural production of small farmers. First, an inter-temporal model of agricultural production is developed in which the impact of conflict is transmitted through violent shocks and uncertainty brought about by conflict. We test the model using a unique household survey applied to 4800 households in four micro-regions of Colombia. Our findings suggest households learn to live amid conflict, albeit at a lower income trajectory. When presence of non-state armed actors prolongs, farmers shift to activities with short-term yields and lower profitability from activities that require high investments. If violence intensifies in regions with presence of non-state armed actors, farmers concentrate on subsistence activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • The relative export competitiveness (REC) for India and her competitors is developed. • The REC covers exports of sugar, rice, wheat, and cotton, each relative to other exports. • India's rice, cotton, and sugar are competitively advantaged but not wheat. • The REC is time varying and is mainly lower for India than her competitors. • An attempt is made to explain the determinants of the REC. Abstract In this paper, we derive time-varying relative export competitiveness (REC) of India's top agricultural exports (rice, wheat, cotton and sugar) against India's share of world agricultural exports (REC_WA) and world exports (REC_WE) from 1961 to 2012. We reveal that India's exports of all four commodities became relatively competitive over time but these were not as competitive as the top, or selected emerging, exporters of the four commodities. We also examine the determinants of REC in these four commodities focusing on factors including crop-specific and aggregate factor endowments, domestic price, export prices, and GDP per capital, preferential trade agreements, export restrictions and bans, and India's Green Revolution. The regression analysis was mainly confined to the 1981–2012, due to data constraints. We find that the time series regression results are similar in sign and significance for REC_WE and REC_WA. Our key findings suggest the REC in wheat, rice, and cotton deteriorated as a result of export restrictions. Capital had negative effects on cotton REC. Labor and farm size did not influence the REC in the commodities. The Green Revolution improved the REC in rice and cotton (in Phase 3). The WTO had a positive effect on the REC in rice. The South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) Agreement adversely affected the REC in wheat and rice but strengthened the REC in cotton and sugar. Higher domestic price reduced the REC in cotton. Higher per capita income strengthens the REC in wheat with a lag. We explain these results and suggest policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Cash transfers increase farm production by 33.5 percent. • None of these impacts are channelled through transfer-induced changes in farm labour. • In fact, cash transfers have no significant impact on family labour supply or on demand for hired labour. • This implies that the productive impacts of cash transfers flow through other channels, different from the labour one. Abstract This paper has the double aim to study whether unconditional cash transfers have an impact on farm production and to look into the causal mechanisms through which government transfers produce productive impacts. We use mediation analysis to identify the total effect of transfers on farm production and to isolate the influence of the labour channel from other transmission channels. In particular, we analyze whether changes in farm production are caused by transfer-induced changes in the use of farm labour – either by reallocating family labour between off- and on-farm work or by changes in the demand for hired labour – or if other transmission channels are at work. We find that cash transfers have a sizable impact on farm production but they do not lead to increased use of family or hired labour on the farm, which implies that the productive impacts of cash transfers flow through other channels, different from the labour one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • We find positive effects on prices and income from sale of certified products. • However, we find no change in overall household income and assets. • Wages for workers are not higher in certified production. • Context is crucial in explaining variation in effects. • Impact evaluations on certification need better study design and reporting. Abstract Certification systems (CS) set and monitor voluntary standards to make agricultural production sustainable in socio-economic terms and agricultural trade fairer for producers and workers. They try to achieve a wide range of socio-economic and environmental effects through bundles of interventions that include the process of standard setting and compliance, advocacy among consumers, capacity building for producers, building supply chains, price interventions, and the application of acceptable labour standards, overall to improve the wellbeing of farmers and agricultural workers. This paper presents the results of a mixed-method systematic review that synthesized the literature on socio-economic effects of certification systems on agricultural producers and wage workers in low and middle income countries. The review followed the Campbell Collaboration guidelines for systematic reviews, and included studies published between 1990 and 2016 in different languages, with evidence on low and middle income countries. The review included a quantitative effectiveness question focused on a range of intermediate (e.g. prices, wages) and endpoint outcomes (e.g. household income). It also included a question on barriers, facilitators and contextual factors shaping effectiveness which drew on qualitative or mixed-method studies. Eligible certification systems were based on second- (industry-level) or third-party certifications, and excluded own-company standards. For the effectiveness review, quantitative impact evaluations must use experimental or non-experimental methods demonstrating control for selection bias. With these inclusion criteria, the review includes 43 studies used for analysing quantitative effects, and 136 qualitative studies for synthesizing barriers, enablers and other contextual factors. Most included studies report on initiatives in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa and focus primarily on agricultural producers. The quality of the included studies is mixed, and several studies are weak on a number of methodological fronts, especially on statistical reporting. Overall, there is limited and mixed evidence on the effects of CS on a range of intermediate and final socio-economic outcomes for agricultural producers and wage workers. There are positive effects on prices and income from the sale of produce is higher for certified farmers. However, workers' wages do not seem to benefit from the presence of CS and, further along the causal chain, we find no evidence that total household income improves with certification. The integrated synthesis of quantitative and qualitative studies shows that context matters substantially in all causal chains and multiple factors shape the effectiveness and causal mechanisms that link interventions associated with certification and the wellbeing of producers, workers and their families. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary This paper examines the implications of productivity improvements in agriculture, industry, and services for global poverty. We find that, in poor countries, increases in agricultural productivity generally have a larger poverty-reduction effect than increases in industry or services. This differential declines as average incomes rise, partly because agriculture becomes smaller as a share of the economy, and partly because agricultural productivity growth becomes less effective in reducing poverty. The source of the poverty-reduction benefits from agricultural productivity growth changes as innovations are more widely adopted—moving from increases in producer returns to reductions in consumer prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Land certification leads to land and labor reallocation to more efficient farms with positive aggregate effects. • The reform increases renting-out by low-productivity farmers and renting-in by more productive farmers. • Low-productivity households are more likely to have migrants than high-productivity households. Employing 2015 and 2017 CFD data, this paper studies how the new round of a land certification program that aims to provide secure land titles for farmers has affected factor reallocation and aggregate output in China. The main findings are that land certification results in well-defined and secure property rights and leads to land and labor reallocation to more efficient farms with positive aggregate effects. Our paper also provides direct evidence of the reallocation mechanism by showing that the reform increases renting-out by low-productivity farmers and renting-in by more productive farmers. Moreover, the reform changes the likelihood of households remaining in agriculture: low-productivity households are more likely to have migrants than high-productivity households. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We evaluate the impact of a value chain development project on agricultural productivity focusing on differences by gender and ethnicity. • We decompose the impact by ethnicity and by gender. • The project impact is higher for non-minority and male-headed households than for ethnic minority and female-headed households. • Results suggest that the agricultural productivity gap by ethnicity and by gender is mainly driven by endowment effects, primarily land and labor endowments. • Findings highlight the need for targeted support to minority and female producers in value chain development projects. This paper estimates the impact of an inclusive agricultural value chain development project on agricultural productivity and decomposes the impact by gender and ethnicity of producers. The intervention sought to alleviate poverty among small-scale producers by increasing agricultural productivity and lowering transaction costs. It also specifically targeted minority and female producers to ensure inclusivity. We use primary survey data from over 2,500 households in rural Nepal. We estimate the impact on agricultural productivity by employing a treatment effect estimator, and decompose it by gender and ethnicity using the Kitagawa-Oaxaca-Blinder (KOB) decomposition method. We find that the project has a positive impact on agricultural productivity, but the impact is higher for non-minority and male-headed households than for minority and female-headed households, respectively. The ethnicity productivity gap is smaller in the treatment group than in comparison group. Even though male-headed households have consistently higher productivity, the gender gap in agricultural productivity is smaller in the treatment group compared to the comparison group. KOB decomposition shows that the ethnicity- and gender- specific differential impacts are mainly driven by differential endowment effects, primarily land and labor endowments. Results suggest that the project reduced the ethnicity- and gender-specific productivity gaps, although it did not eliminate them entirely. These findings highlight the need for targeted support to vulnerable producers including ethnic minority and female producers. Specifically targeted land tenure security programs can ensure that vulnerable producers can harness benefits in a manner which could help narrow productivity differences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses a framework that goes beyond rural-urban dualism and highlights the role of small-town economy in understanding structural change in a developing country. It provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of the role of agricultural productivity in structural transformation in the labor market in small towns and the surrounding rural areas. The empirical work is based on a general equilibrium model that formalizes the demand and labor market linkages: the small-town draws labor away from the rural areas to produce goods and services whose demand may depend largely on rural income. The theory clarifies the role played by the income elasticity of demand and the elasticity of wage with respect to productivity increase in agriculture. For productivity growth to lead to a demand effect, the wage elasticity has to be lower than a threshold. When the demand for goods and services produced in small towns comes mainly from the adjacent rural areas, the demand effect can outweigh the negative wage effect and lead to higher employment in the town-goods sector. The empirical analysis finds a significant positive effect of higher rainfall on rice yield and wages. Using rainfall shocks as a source of exogenous variation, we provide instrumental variables estimates of the effects of agricultural productivity on agricultural wages. The increase in wages is larger in the rural sample compared with the small town economy sample, but structural change in employment is more pronounced in the small town economy. In the rural sample, the positive employment effect is observed only in small-scale manufacturing and services. In contrast, a positive productivity shock in small towns sample has large and positive effect on employment in large scale manufacturing and services (construction, transport, education, and health). Agricultural productivity growth induces structural transformation within the services sector in small towns, with employment in skilled services growing at a faster pace than that in low skilled services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Despite significant efforts, Africa has struggled to imitate the rapid agricultural growth that took place in Asia in the 1960s and 1970s. As a rare but important exception, Ethiopia’s agriculture sector recorded remarkable rapid growth during 2004–14. This paper explores this rapid change in the agriculture sector of this important country – the second most populous in Africa. We review the evidence on agricultural growth and decompose the contributions of modern inputs to growth using an adjusted Solow decomposition model. We also highlight the key pathways Ethiopia followed to achieve its agricultural growth. We find that land and labor use expanded significantly and total factor productivity grew by about 2.3% per year over the study period. Moreover, modern input use more than doubled, explaining some of this growth. The expansion in modern input use appears to have been driven by high government expenditures on the agriculture sector, including agricultural extension, but also by an improved road network, higher rural education levels, and favorable international and local price incentives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural training is a potentially effective method to diffuse relevant new technologies to increase productivity and alleviate rural poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, since it is prohibitively expensive to provide direct training to all the farmers in SSA, it is critically important to examine the extent to which technologies taught to a small number of farmers disseminate to non-trained farmers. This paper investigates the technology dissemination pathways among smallholder rice producers within a rural irrigation scheme in Tanzania. As an innovative feature, we compare the performance of three categories of farmers: key farmers, who receive intensive pre-season training at a local training center; intermediate farmers, who are trained by the key farmers; and other ordinary farmers. By collecting and analyzing a unique five-year household-level panel data set, we estimate difference-in-differences models to assess how the gap in performance evolve as the technologies spill over from the trained farmers to the ordinary farmers. To disentangle the technology spillover process, we also examine the extent to which social and geographical network with the key and intermediate farmers influences the adoption of technologies by the ordinary farmers, by incorporating social relationship variables into spatial econometric models. We found that the ordinary farmers who were a relative or residential neighbor of a key or intermediate farmer were more likely to adopt new technologies than those who were not. As a result, while the key farmers’ technology adoption rates rose immediately after the training, those of the non-trained ordinary farmers caught up belatedly. As the technologies disseminated, the paddy yield of the key farmers increased from 3.1 to 5.3 tons per hectare, while the yield of the ordinary farmers increased from 2.6 to 3.7 tons per hectare. Our results suggest the effectiveness and practical potential of farmer-to-farmer extension programs for smallholders in SSA as a cost effective alternative to the conventional farmer training approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the interplay between Malawi’s input subsidy and access to extension services, and the impact of both on farm productivity and food security using Malawi’s Integrated Household Panel Survey. A correlated random effects (CRE) device is used, and consistency and robustness of results are checked using various other estimation models. The receipt of fertilizer and seed subsidies is shown to have an inconsistent impact on farm productivity and food security; at the same time, access to agricultural advice is consistently insignificant in explaining these. Further analysis, however, shows a statistically significant and strong association with farm productivity and food security when access to extension services is unpacked to include indicators of usefulness and farmers’ satisfaction. Households that reported receipt of “very useful” agricultural advice had greater productivity and greater food security compared to those that reported receipt of advice that they considered not useful and those that did not receive any advice at all. This result implies the need to ensure the provision of relevant and useful agricultural advice to increase the likelihood of achieving agricultural development outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the rapid growth of cities in Africa, more rural farmers are providing staple foods to urban residents. However, empirical evidence on how urbanization affects these farmers is scarce. To fill this gap, this paper explores the relationship between proximity to a city and the production behavior of rural staple crop producers. More in particular, we analyze data from teff producing farmers in major producing areas around Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital. We find that farmers more closely located to Addis Ababa face higher wages, land rental rates, and teff prices, leading to better incentives to intensify production as seen in the uptake of modern inputs. Moreover, we observe that land and labor productivity as well as profitability in teff production improve with urban proximity. Our results suggest that better connectivity of rural farmers to cities and growing urban demand for food are important associates of the process of agricultural intensification and transformation in Ethiopia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contract farming is a sales arrangement between a farmer and a firm, agreed before production begins, which provides the farmer with resources or services. Many governments and donors promote contract farming as part of agricultural development policies. However, there is serious concern whether smaller farmers can benefit from these arrangements. This paper presents the results of a systematic review that analysed the evidence in the literature on income effects for smallholders. The review included all studies with an econometric design to reduce selection bias in effect estimates. The meta-analysis covered 26 empirical instances of contract farming in 13 developing countries. The contracts varied widely, with varying service packages provided by the firm to the farmers. Using truth table analysis, we explored combinations of services associated with relatively high or relatively low income effects. The meta-analysis resulted in an overall pooled average effect size of 38%. However, we show that there are publication and survivor biases. Non-significant effects are systematically underreported. Moreover, all studies assessed the effectiveness of the contractual arrangement when these had already survived the start-up problems. Both sources of bias lead to an overestimation of the average income effect. The findings point to the need for substantial income effects for contract farming arrangements to survive over time. Both firms and farmers face risks; for example, farmers may side-sell products after having received the services from the firm. The most effective contractual arrangements included a price premium, especially when there was no farmers’ organisation to broker the contract between the farmer and the firm. We show that smallholders can benefit from the contractual arrangement. However, the poorest farmers are rarely included; we show that, in 61% of the cases, the contract farmers had significantly larger landholdings or more assets than the average farmers in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Contract farming (CF) arrangements have the potential to address market failures and improve technology adoption, productivity, and welfare. In Ghana, government and donors use CF as a strategy for increasing adoption of new agricultural technologies and developing value chains. Yet to date, there has not been a rigorous assessment of these CF schemes. The focus in this paper is on different maize-based CF schemes in the poorest and most remote region in Ghana. It assesses the profitability and potential impact of these CF schemes, utilizing a unique plot-level dataset that covers two periods of data and two maize plots (scheme and non-scheme) per household, and employing matching techniques and an instrumental variable approach to address selection bias and unobserved heterogeneity across farmers. These are complemented by a community-level survey, in-depth interviews with scheme operators, and a series of key informant interviews. Results show that these schemes led to improved technology adoption and yield increases. In addition, a subset of maize farmers with high yield improvements due to CF participation have high profits. Maize CF schemes also enabled market coordination and consistent supply of quality maize to downstream industries. However, on average, the impact of the CF schemes on profitability is negative, even when input diversion is accounted for. Yield increases are not high enough to compensate for higher input requirements and the cost of capital under the schemes. Despite higher yields, the costs to produce one metric tonne of maize under CF schemes are higher than on maize farms without CF schemes, twice that of several countries in Africa, and more than seven times higher than that of major maize-exporting countries (the United States, Brazil, and Argentina). Sustainability of these CF schemes will largely depend on developing and promoting much-improved varieties and technologies that boost yields in order to compensate for the high input and credit costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary This paper explores the long-term sustainability of Argentina’s specialization in genetically modified (GM) soybean cultivation. We perform an evidence-based assessment of the most relevant economic, social, and environmental implications of the “soybeanization” of Argentinian agriculture. Our diagnostic relies on a combination of published sources and a unique data set drawn from a field survey carried out in 2011 in two provinces of the Argentinian Pampas. This data set allows us to evaluate with a reliable empirical base the socio-economic impacts of GM soybean cultivation. Our analysis suggests a conflict between the success of the “soybeanization” of Argentinian agriculture measured in terms of production and profit records, and the social, economic, and environmental sustainability of this new model of production. On the one hand, GM soybean technological package adoption has increased farm productivity, and reduced the costs per unit produced, resulting in a dramatic increase in profits. On the other hand, the specialization of Argentinian agriculture on soybean cultivation has increased the dependence of public finances on the foreign exchange revenue generated by exports earnings. We also find a mixed empirical picture of changing land distribution patterns and labor displacement resulting from GM soybean expansion. Finally, we find that the environmental implications of agricultural biotechnology appear alarming and the long-term sustainability of GM crops highly questionable. Promoting sustainable agricultural growth has become not only desirable but necessary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Measuring the impact of natural resource programs is a key element in the formulation and implementation of policies designed to promote farm income while enhancing the quality of the surrounding environment. In this paper, we analyze the economic impact of natural resource technologies delivered by the Socio-environmental and Forestry Development Program-II (POSAF-II) in Nicaragua. We use cross-sectional data for 1,483 households, from 212 treated and control communities. Results obtained from propensity score matching (PSM), ordinary least squares (OLS), weighted least squares regression (WLS) based on PSM, and instrumental variables (IV) regression indicate that POSAF-II has had a positive impact on the total value of agricultural production of beneficiary farmers. An internal rate of return analysis supports the hypothesis that increasing household income while encouraging the sustainable use of natural resources through the implementation of suitable management programs can be complementary development objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we analyze the impact of smallholder participation in a contract-farming scheme in the rice sector in Benin. We use data from a cross-sectional farm-household survey and different propensity score matching estimations to reveal how participation in a contract-farming scheme affects smallholder rice production. We find that contract-farming results in expansion of the rice area, intensification of rice production, increased commercialization of rice, and higher farm-gate prices, and ultimately contributes to rice output growth and increased income. Our findings imply that contract-farming can contribute to upgrading the rice supply chain and the development of the rice sector in Benin. Promoting and supporting the spread of contract-farming schemes in the sector might be an effective way to contribute to reaching the government goals of expanding rice production to become self-sufficient and improving rice quality to compete with imported rice. While there is a large empirical literature on contract-farming in high-value and commodity export sectors, studies on contract-farming in staple food sectors are very scarce. Our results document that contract-farming for staple food crops can be sustainable and benefit smallholder farmers; which is against theoretical expectations that contracting for staple food crops is not feasible because of contract-enforcement problems that stem from a low value of produce, low storage and transport costs, and a larger number of buyers in the chain. Our study contributes to understanding the role that contract-farming might play in the much needed upgrading of domestic and staple food crop sectors in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Many African governments, faced with low rural incomes and food security challenges, have developed input subsidy programs in order to enhance agricultural productivity. This paper adds to recent literature analyzing the effects of input subsidy programs and gender on crop diversification in Sub-Saharan Africa. We investigate the effect of Zambia’s input subsidy program on crop allocation patterns by gender. In relatively land abundant Zambia, we test both single-equation crop diversification index models and multivariate regression models of cropland allocation. Our study finds that input subsidies reduce crop diversification more in male-headed households than in female-headed households. Further, multivariate regression results confirm that this occurs because female-headed households expand maize acreage less in response to the input subsidy. These findings suggest that greater cropland diversification will be maintained if input subsidy programs are accompanied by loan programs and other assistance which support leadership roles for women in farm households. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary As countries experience economic growth and choose among available development pathways, they are in a favorable position to adopt natural resource use technologies and production practices that favor efficient use of inputs, healthy soils, and ecosystems. Current emphasis on increasing resilience to climate change and reducing agricultural greenhouse gasses (GHG) emissions strengthens the support for sustainable agricultural production. In fact, reducing losses in soil fertility, reclaiming degraded lands, and promoting synergistic interaction between crop production and forests are generally seen as good climate change policies. In order for decision-makers to develop long-term policies that address these issues, they must have tools at their disposal that evaluate trade-offs, opportunities, and repercussions of the options considered. In this paper, the authors combine and reconcile the output of three models widely accessible to the public to analyze the impacts of policies that target emission reduction in the agricultural sector. We present an application to Colombia which reveals the importance of considering the full scope of interactions among the various land uses. Results indicate that investments in increasing the efficiency and productivity of the livestock sector and reducing land allocated to pasture are preferable to policies that target deforestation alone or target a reduction of emissions in crop production. Investments in livestock productivity and land-carrying capacity would reduce deforestation and provide sufficient gains in carbon stock to offset greater emissions from increased crop production while generating higher revenues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Access to land has been a major emphasis of previous work on socioeconomic differentiation within rural African communities. Land endowment has generally been measured in terms of area without much consideration to variation in the qualities of land at the level of village territories. Building from work on the variation of soil fertility, this paper considers the potential relationship between soil fertility variation and wealth inequality within rural communities in Sahelian West Africa. The management history, yields, and characteristics (livestock and land wealth, labor, tenure security, cropped area) of the households managing and owning 181 sampled fields within two village territories in southwestern Niger are analyzed to evaluate the relative importance of land area and soil fertility in affecting the ability of households to produce food and the factors that affect household investments into soil fertility. Soil fertility variation is found to play a major role in the crop production achieved in the study area. This variation results in part from contemporary and historic investments by farmers largely through manure application. Manuring rates are found not to be affected by the extent of land owned or managed nor by the security of land tenure. Instead, these investments are determined by livestock wealth, the major store of wealth in rural parts of the Sahel. These findings point to a major mechanism for increased inequality in areas where subsistence cropping prevails—a mechanism that is mediated through soil fertility variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• It is well established that land fragmentation reduces the productivity of on-farm labor. • The literature is confused about how it affects the amount of labor used on-farm and off-farm. • This paper shows the conceptual benefit of viewing land consolidation as a form of technical change. • Empirical results for Vietnam confirm that land consolidation reduces use of on-farm labor and increases off-farm use. • Land consolidation also promotes the adoption of mechanization. This paper deepens the economic analysis of the effects of land consolidation – reduction of land fragmentation. It does this in the context of rural Vietnam, studying whether land consolidation promotes or hinders the Vietnamese government's policy objectives of encouraging agricultural mechanization and stimulating the off-farm rural economy. The analysis views land consolidation as a form of technical change, making it possible to apply the rich insights developed in the economic literature on that subject. This treatment reveals that the economic impacts of land consolidation depend partly on its factor bias and partly on the degree to which labor is substitutable in production for other factors. At a theoretical level, if a technical change is factor neutral, it will reduce off-farm labor supply and slow rural structural transformation away from agriculture; if it is labor-augmenting and the elasticity of substitution between factors is low enough, the opposite effects are predicted. The paper studies these issues empirically for rice production in Vietnam, focusing on the impact that consolidation of rice land has on rice production, machinery use, and labor allocation. The findings confirm that land consolidation raises both farm productivity and farm income and stimulates increased machinery use. It also reduces farm labor supply, lowers labor intensity in farming, and thereby releases more farm labor to off-farm development, consistent with government policy objectives. Based on these findings, the paper concludes that land consolidation should be encouraged through development of land ownership rights and the promotion of land rental markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The paper looks at productivity differentials across women and men managed farms in India. • We find that productivity on women managed farms is on an average 11% lower than male managed farms. • This gap reduces to 7% once crop choice, input usage, location and farmer characteristics are controlled for. • Semi-parametric decomposition shows that productivity differential remains largest in lower part of the value distribution. • Heterogeneity analyses shows inadequate experience among women managers as a contributor to the residual productivity gap. In India, role of women as farm managers has been veiled behind image of men as primary decision makers on farms. Data shows that approximately 8% farm households had women farm managers in India in 2004, and this number increased to 11% in 2011. This rising phenomenon of farm management by women begets an in depth understanding about these farms, including, differentials in productivity levels across men and women managers. This paper uses three measures to capture productivity – production value, profit value and crop specific yields. Results show that total farm production and profits are lower by approximately 11% in households where women manage farms. This falls to 7% when controls for crop choice, input usage, location and farmer characteristics are included. The main mediating factors in explaining the productivity gap are crop choice and input usage, explaining almost 45% of the productivity gap. Further, the paper provides suggestive evidence on mechanisms contributing to the remaining productivity difference that cannot be explained by differences in observed characteristics. It shows that inadequate experience of women farm managers in agricultural production processes can be an important factor behind the remaining gap. The study makes two contributions to the literature – one, it is the first quantitative study in the Indian context on gender differentials in farm productivity and second, it applies semi-parametric decomposition techniques to look at the productivity differentials along the entire distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The paper aims to investigate the impact of shocks and agricultural productivity on natural resource extraction in four Southeast Asia countries. • Weather shocks and market shocks push households to extract more natural resources. • Natural resource extraction is a decreasing function of agricultural productivity. • Low education and low access to electricity are positively associated with natural resource extraction. Natural resources are depleting at an alarming rate, causing severe threats to the sustainable development in many developing countries. Given an ambiguous relationship between shocks, agricultural productivity, and natural resource extraction, we used a dataset of about 4200 rural households surveyed in four Southeast Asian countries (Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam) to investigate the impact of shocks and agricultural productivity on natural resource extraction by rural households. Our results show that weather shocks and market shocks force households to extract more natural resources. An increased agricultural productivity, however, discourages natural resource extraction. In addition, our results show that low education and low access to electricity are positively associated with natural resource extraction. We suggest that measures enhancing agricultural productivity should be prioritized, and more assistance and support to farmers for mitigating the severe effects of weather shocks and market shocks should be provided. Furthermore, accelerating farm mechanization, land defragmentation, rural electrification, supporting the development of communication systems and local markets, and promoting rural education should be encouraged. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We investigate the demand supply side constraints of credit facing smallholders in developing countries using survey data and econometric models. • Against several past studies and policy discourse linking rural credit to suppl-side factors, we found that demand-side factors such as risk-aversion behavior are equally important. • Our results suggest that women are more likely to be credit constrained (from both the supply and demand sides) than men in both study countries. • We suggest on addressing both supply- and demand-side credit constraints, and gender-sensitive policies to improve women's access to credit. Credit constraint is often considered as one of the key barriers to the adoption of modern agricultural technologies and low agricultural productivity in low- and middle-income countries. Past research and much of the policy discourse associate agricultural credit constraints with supply-side factors, such as limited access to credit sources or high costs of borrowing. However, demand-side factors, such as risk-aversion and financial illiteracy among borrowers could also affect credit-rationing of smallholder agricultural households. This study investigates the nature of credit constraints, factors affecting credit constraint status, and the effects of credit constraints on adoption and intensity of use of three modern agricultural technologies – small-scale irrigation, chemical fertilizer, and improved seeds. The paper also assesses whether credit constraints are gender-differentiated. Primary survey data were collected from sample farmers in Ethiopia and Tanzania, and Tobit and two-step hurdle econometric models were used to analyze these data. Results show that demand-side credit constraints are as important as supply-side factors in conditioning smallholders' access to credit in both countries. We also find that credit is a binding constraint for the decision to adopt technologies and input use intensity in Tanzania but not statistically significant in Ethiopia. Results suggest that women are more likely to be credit constrained (from both the supply and demand sides) than men in both study countries. Based on these findings, we suggest that policies should focus on addressing both supply- and demand-side credit constraints to credit access, including through targeted interventions to reduce risk, such as crop insurance, and to strengthen the gender sensitivity of credit policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• How formal education is designed, redistributed, governed and imposed led to multiple forms of violence against pastoralists in Karamoja. • Formal education justifies and increases processes of stability (e.g. sedentarization) in an environment of high environmental variability. • There is an urgency to rethink the purpose and potential of formal education in contexts of high variability such as Karamoja. • More reflection is needed to consider the harm formal education can cause (and has already caused) to marginalized and non-western societies. • There is a need to build on, expand and re-invest in locally developed, flexible and alternative modes of education. There is a shift from pastoralism towards agro-pastoralism and systematized agricultural production in Karamoja, a sub-region of Uganda. At the same time, aid agencies and the government want to formally educate the Karamojong, in line with global education norms and policies. This creates a lot of ambiguities and in-betweens for the Karamojong as formal education impels sedentarization and socio-economic division. The Karamojong have a long history of using resistance to formal education as a tool to protect their pastoralist lifestyle and cultural values. This paper sheds light on the complex and often violent intersections of modernization, development and formal education. It argues that while formal education has delivered some benefits to the Karamojong, it has also led to multiple forms of violence, aid paradoxes and dead ends. The Karamojong's relationship with formal education is shaped by resistance , cultural repression , irrelevance and structural violence. If pastoralism ought to be invigorated in Karamoja, there is an urgency to rethink the purpose and potential of formal education in the region. This includes to build on, expand and re-invest in locally developed, flexible and alternative learning programmes that are more suited to fit the everyday lives and realities of the Karamojong. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We develop a spatio-temporal model to estimate climate change effects on crop yield. • Accounting for spatial spillover amplifies the effect of wet days for millet in SSA. • Accounting for temporal spillover reduces the effect of wet days for millet in SSA. • Local yield levels are affected by the millet yield in neighboring regions. • The effect of temperature on millet yield differs between poor and rich countries. This paper reports estimates of the economic impact of changes in weather variables on sub-Saharan African pearl millet yield based on panel data for 1970–2016. We control for spatial effects in all the components of our exposure–response function, plus a lag in time of the covariates through spatio-temporal econometrics techniques. Our results indicate own-location weather variables have significant contemporaneous impacts on millet yield. Specifically, we find that vapor pressure deficit, wet day frequency and temperature are important determinants of millet yield. In addition, accounting for spatial and temporal spillovers exacerbates and attenuates wet day cumulative effect, respectively, and local crop production is affected by neighboring countries' production. The results are robust to several sensitivity checks, including accounting for adaptation using long-term averages, and are consistent across country-income groups. We also use our estimates to forecast how crop production would respond to climate change in the mid-future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Contract farming is often seen as a panacea for many of the challenges faced by agricultural production in developing countries. Given the large heterogeneity of contract farming arrangements, it is debatable whether all kinds of contract farming arrangements offer benefits to participating smallholders. Nonetheless, many donor agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and governments of developing countries are increasingly pushing for contract farming and outgrower schemes as an instrument to commercialize small-scale farming. Their desire for such arrangements is further reinforced by the recent rush for large-scale agricultural land acquisition in most developing countries, often described as “land grabbing,” because contract farming and outgrower schemes can result in the same advantages as large-scale farming, but avoid its main drawback—namely the displacement of the current land-users. Using data from the oldest and some more recently established sugarcane outgrower schemes in Ethiopia, this paper examines the effects of compulsory participation in sugarcane outgrower production on total household income and asset stocks. Because outgrowers and non-outgrowers may have some differences prior to joining sugarcane outgrower schemes, we use genetic matching and propensity score matching to make the two groups comparable based on their observable characteristics. Our results indicate that compulsory participation in an outgrower scheme significantly reduces the income and asset stocks of outgrowers who contributed irrigated land to the outgrower scheme, while the effect is insignificant for outgrowers who contributed rain-fed land. We provide several explanations and discuss policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary In the Philippines, green economy projects encourage the production of agro-industrial commodities ostensibly for climate change mitigation, environmental rehabilitation, and inclusive rural economic growth. This paper illustrates, however, how elite constructions of the uplands as being “idle” and “unproductive” precipitate low-carbon, agro-industrial crop production in the Philippine frontier. Based on field research from 2010 to 2012 (i.e., in-depth interviews with policy and market elites, participant observation, and archival document analysis), we argue that elites constructions of and discourses on the uplands as idle and unproductive have been carried over from the colonial period, albeit in more complex ways, to inform and legitimize agro-industrial policies and programs couched in the green economy vision of the country. Such discourses simplify green economy policies and undermine upland dwellers’ constructions of place. Our findings raise critical questions about the realization of the vision of the green economy in the Philippines and much of the Global South. Regardless of the inclusive growth discourse in the green economy program, elite constructions of the idle and unproductive uplands pose serious risks to upland environments and populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Watershed development facilitates in reducing the vulnerability of farm income to weather-induced shocks in rain-fed lands in India. The present paper estimates homogeneous as well as non-homogeneous effects of watershed development on farmers demonstrating a huge discrepancy in estimated values between two. It shows that initial differences in resource endowments, access to formal credit, education level, and caste membership can result in inequalities in the impact of watershed development programs on targeted parameters. The analysis also establishes the sensitivity of the estimates to the general level of multivariate imbalance as well as univariate imbalance in confounding covariates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Income inequality in developing countries tended to decline during the 2000s. • This did not just apply to Latin America: inequality fell in many other countries. • The tendency was stronger in countries with higher initial levels of inequality. • It was also stronger in countries subject to larger increases in commodity prices. • We also find a role for more redistributive fiscal policy, but only in Latin America. Since the early 2000s, trends in income inequality in emerging and developing economies have undergone a noticeable shift. While inequality tended to increase during the 1980s and 1990s, it has tended to fall since the early 2000s. In this paper we analyse the correlates of declining income inequality among emerging and developing economies during the 2000s. We estimate country-specific trends in market and disposable income inequality for a large sample of over 100 countries, and then use econometric analysis to examine the correlates of those trends. We find that the tendency toward declining inequality in the 2000s was stronger in countries with higher initial levels of inequality and larger increases in relative agricultural productivity, country-specific primary commodity prices, and remittance inflows. We also find a role for increases in educational attainments, tax revenues and government social spending, and trade liberalisation, but only in Latin America. The results suggest that the challenge now facing many emerging and developing countries is how to sustain the reductions in inequality achieved since the early 2000s, given the decline in commodity prices since 2015, and the social and economic repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Milk production (liters) and efficiency (liters/cow) are affected by green and blue water. • Reductions in rainfall may have disproportionately large negative impacts on the poor. • Investments in green water and blue water have the potential to off-set reductions in rainfall. • The poor are less able to invest in green and blue water and as a result may be left behind. Deforestation and global climate change are predicted to affect precipitation and agricultural productivity in the Amazon. Anecdotal evidence suggests that farmers are already being affected by changes in the timing and amount of precipitation, but there is little quantitative evidence on the mechanism by which precipitation affects production. This paper uses an innovative application of remote sensing and meteorological data to separate rainfall into green water (soil moisture that contributes to plant water use) and blue water (surface water), to estimate the impact of these water sources on the production and production efficiency of dairy in a mature colonization zone of the Brazilian Amazon. This approach allows us to draw inferences about different pathways through the precipitation-production causal chain and to link changes in precipitation with impacts on farm profits and welfare. We find that production and production efficiency are affected by green and blue water and that reductions in rainfall will have negative impacts that may disproportionally impact the poor. Our methods and results are informative to economists interested in this relatively new application of remote sensing data, to geographers interested in identifying the role of green and blue water in agricultural production, and more generally to researchers interested in the impacts of rainfall and water availability on small-scale producers in the Brazilian Amazon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a theoretical analysis of the demo-economic effects of landownership in an agrarian economy facing population pressure. A family production structure with overlapping-generations is considered in which fertility is driven by an old-age security motive and two land property rights regimes coexist. Using the tragedy of the commons hypothesis, the model shows that the lack of landownership may contribute to high fertility, low capital investment and thus low living standards. By internalizing the land dilution effect of fertility, a private land regime lowers the population pressure, stimulates capital investment, and eases the poverty trap. These results cannot be obtained through productivity improvement measures and hold under various income allocation schemes among family members namely altruistic, perfectly competitive and egalitarian. The simulated joint behavior of fertility, capital investment and income per capita is consistent with the general agreement that more secure land rights are key determinants of economic development, and with numerous empirical evidences on the demoeconomic effects of landownership in some developing countries and in history. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• In Tanzania, 89% of rural working children work on household farm. • One day of child work on farm increases production by US$0.89. • The productivity of older children is much larger. • A conditional cash transfer of $10/month would enroll 27% of working poor children. • In Africa, providing a CCT may not be the most efficient tool to achieve universal enrollment. In developing countries, the opportunity costs of children's time can significantly hinder universal education. This paper studies one of these opportunity costs: we estimate the agricultural productivity of children aged 10 to 15 years old using the LSMS-ISA panel survey in Tanzania. Since child labor can be endogenous, we exploit the panel structure of the data and instrument child labor with changes in the age composition of the household. One day of child work leads to an increase in production value by roughly US$0.89. Children enrolled in school work 26 fewer days than nonenrolled children. Compensating enrolled children for loss in income can be accomplished with monthly payments of $1.92. However, a complete simulation of a hypothetical conditional cash transfer shows that even $10/month transfers would fail to achieve universal school enrollment of children aged 10 to 15 years old. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The CGIAR was created in 1971 and the IARCs became a major institutional innovation for development assistance. • The 'invention' of the IARC has been attributed to US Foundations starting in Mexico in 1943. • This review uses new sources to identify the role of many other actors in developing the IARC model starting from the 1920s. • The IARCs inherited a proven model of crop research but have struggled with a model and stable funding for NRM. • Core elements of the IARC model remain relevant today but require further evolution, especially integration as a system. On the eve of the 50th anniversary of the founding of the CGIAR, this paper revisits the genesis of the international center model for agricultural research (IARC). This model became fashionable in the 1960s and was arguably the major institutional innovation of the 20th century for foreign assistance to agriculture. While the founding of the first IARCs is universally attributed to the Rockefeller and Ford Foundations, we argue that based on new evidence, the creation of the IARCs was a logical conclusion of a process involving many actors that began immediately after World War I. First, we review FAO efforts to build regional and global research networks for the major cereals in the immediate post-WWII period. These networks linked closely to USDA and its legacy of scientific collaboration across US states that together with the Foundations, strongly influenced the design of the first two international centers for the major cereals. In Latin America, the various efforts by the US National Academy of Sciences, the US government and the countries of the region resulted in the creation of three centers for tropical agriculture, (only two of which exist today) with a broader research focus on farming systems and natural resources. Finally, we show how the establishment of four IARCs in Africa in different ways drew on a colonial legacy that had moved toward centralization of research across colonial territories since before WWII. All of these efforts over many decades involved a good deal of experimentation in organization, funding and governance to arrive at the standard IARC model that emerged. By the late 1960s, the genesis of another six IARCs was already in place stimulating the creation of the CGIAR to fund and coordinate the IARCs. The review concludes with a brief reflection on the successes and challenges of the IARC model over 50 years, and its relevance today. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Improving irrigation infrastructure can have significant impact on output and yields while being pro-poor. • Improved small scale irrigation systems can shift the frontier, but farmers need complementary extension support. • Infrastructure and institutional support can be effective in improving water equity issues. • Additional attention is warranted to reach female farmers and to promote improved management overall. Irrigation is a lynchpin of rural development strategies and a key input to improving productivity and farm incomes, the key source of livelihood for the majority of the world's poor. Limited land and growing water scarcity mean that establishing systems to maximise the benefits from every drop is pivotal. In this paper, we analyse the impact of a canal irrigation project for smallholders in the Philippines, focusing on rice, one of the world's most water intensive crops. We contribute to two strands of literature by combining impact evaluation and efficiency analysis methods. Using a dataset for 714 treatment and 440 control farm parcels, we apply Propensity Score Matching and a selectivity-corrected Stochastic Production Frontier to handle biases from both observable and unobservable variables. We then analyse technical efficiency (TE) and frontier output using a shared Stochastic Meta-Frontier. We find that the project had a statistically significant impact on frontier output but not on TE, suggesting that improved irrigation technology increased beneficiaries' production potential, but it did not improve TE likely due to insufficient training and input access. Thus, beneficiaries were unable to take full advantage of their improved production potential, highlighting the need for suitable complementary support in future projects. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the main beneficiaries were downstream parcels, smaller parcels, those located in the poorer project district, and farmers with lower education, all implying a pro-poor impact. Finally, we find that female-headed households benefitted less from the project, suggesting the need for additional support in future interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• I compare the process of structural transformation in both national data and household panel data in India. • The national data provides evidence that India is in the midst of structural transformation. • Household data tells a similar story, though rural households lag behind in key indicators. • The results have implications for using stylized facts to set policy agenda. This paper compares national-level data from India with 40 years of household panel data from rural India to track sectoral changes in employment and income as well as examine the hypothesis of induced innovation in agricultural production. In the national data, India appears to be in the midst of a structural transformation. The share of agriculture in GDP and employment has shrunk while agricultural output continues to grow. This productivity growth appears to adhere to the induced innovation hypothesis, as productivity per hectare has increased more rapidly than productivity per worker. Many of the same patterns exist in the household data. Tracking households across time, I observe agricultural output has increased, despite more households engaging in off-farm labor. Household agricultural production is highly specialized and has increased its reliance on improved inputs. However, while agricultural income has grown, industrial and service income has remained stagnant, and the relative income of these households has declined in recent years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We analyze the impact of plant clinics on farm performance and poverty alleviation. • Panel data from maize-growing households in rural Rwanda are used. • Plant clinics enhance the adoption of crop protection technologies. • Participation in plant clinics contributes to increased agricultural productivity. • Plant clinics lessen the incidence of extreme poverty by 5 percentage points. An estimated 40% of potential global crop production is lost annually to pests and diseases. Reducing this level of crop loss is critical to increasing agricultural productivity, which is essential in achieving the sustainable development goals of zero hunger and no poverty. However, the lack of access to timely and relevant advice on crop health problems poses a significant challenge to farmers to take action at the right time to mitigate crop losses. In efforts to address this issue, over 4000 plant clinics have been established in 34 countries worldwide where farmers who are struggling with plant pests and diseases can take samples of their 'sick' crops to trained plant doctors for diagnosis and plant health advice. The plant clinic initiative began in 2003, but thus far, there has not been a rigorous assessment of the impact of this innovative approach of delivering targeted agricultural extension services. Using a recent panel survey of smallholder maize producers in rural Rwanda, this paper attempts to address this gap by analysing the impact of plant clinics on farm performance (measured by technology adoption, and maize yield and income) and on poverty alleviation (measured by the Progress out of Poverty Index). Employing the correlated random effects estimation methods to account for unobserved heterogeneity, we find that plant clinics significantly increase the adoption of crop protection technologies to control devastating maize pests, such as fall armyworm and maize stalk borer, and this, in turn, results in significant maize yield and net income gains of 28% and 23%, respectively. We also show that seeking plant health advice from plant clinics is significantly associated with a 5% reduction in the likelihood of a household falling below the extreme poverty line of $1.25 per day. The results imply that policies and programmes aimed at promoting the establishment of and farmers' participation in plant clinics can contribute to increased agricultural productivity and poverty reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We examine the adoption and impacts of improved soybean technologies. • Over a third of the households adopted improved soybean varieties and agronomic practices. • Adoption is positively associated with yields and incomes. • Greater adoption requires increased access to modern inputs and extension services. Soybean constitutes an important component of the maize-based smallholder cropping systems in Malawi and holds considerable potential for countering soil fertility decline, enhancing household food and nutrition security, and raising rural incomes. A number of yield-enhancing improved soybean varieties and agronomic practices (ISVAPs) have been developed and disseminated in Malawi, but there is limited evidence on the adoption and impacts of these technologies. This paper assesses the productivity and income effects of adopting ISVAPs using plot level data collected from a nationally representative sample of 1237 soybean growing households in Malawi. Our results show that over a third of the sampled households have adopted ISVAPs. Furthermore, results from a stochastic dominance analysis showed that soybean yields and net crop incomes for adopters are significantly higher than those of non-adopters over the entire probability distribution of ISVAPs adoption. Endogenous switching regression model results further demonstrated that adoption of ISVAPs is associated with an average of 61% yield gain and 53% income gain for adopters. Overall, the results point to the need for further scaling of ISVAPs for greater adoption and impact on the livelihoods of smallholder farmers in Malawi. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]