Search

Introduction: Recent trials have emphasized the importance of a precise patient selection for cytoreductive nephrectomy (CN). In 2013, a nomogram was developed for pre- and postoperative prediction of the probability of death (PoD) after CN in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma. To date, the single-institutional nomogram which included mostly patients from the cytokine era has not been externally validated. Our objective is to validate the predictive model in contemporary patients in the targeted therapy era.Methods: Multi-institutional European and North American data from patients who underwent CN between 2006 and 2013 were used for external validation. Variables evaluated included preoperative serum albumin and lactate dehydrogenase levels, intraoperative blood transfusions (yes/no) and postoperative pathologic stage (primary tumour and nodes). In addition, patient characteristics and MSKCC risk factors were collected. Using the original calibration indices and quantiles of the distribution of predictions, Kaplan-Meier estimates and calibration plots of observed versus predicted PoD were calculated. For the preoperative model a decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed.Results: Of 1108 patients [median OS of 27 months (95% CI 24.6-29.4)], 536 and 469 patients had full data for the validation of the pre- and postoperative models, respectively. The AUC for the pre- and postoperative model was 0.68 (95% CI 0.62-0.74) and 0.73 (95% CI 0.68-0.78), respectively. In the DCA the preoperative model performs well within threshold survival probabilities of 20-50%. Most important limitation was the retrospective collection of this external validation dataset.Conclusions: In this external validation, the pre- and postoperative nomograms predicting PoD following CN were well calibrated. Although performance of the preoperative nomogram was lower than in the internal validation, it retains the ability to predict early death after CN. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surgical intervention in the patients with metastatic renal cancer can occur in two settings: (1) to render a patient clinically free of all sites of primary disease and metastases, termed nephrectomy/ metastasectomy, or (2) to resect the primary tumor in the face of unresectable metastatic disease prior to the initiation of systemic therapy, termed cytoreductive nephrectomy. Carefully selected patients with good performance status undergoing nephrectomy and subsequent metastasectomy may experience prolonged survival in the range of 30 months, which could be attributed to a combination of patient selection factors and the surgical resections. Randomized clinical trials from the United States and Europe have demonstrated a small but significant survival benefit to cytoreductive nephrectomy and cytokine therapy versus cytokine therapy alone which is measured in the range of 3–6 months and associated with overall survival of approximately 12 months. The precise mechanism by which cytoreductive nephrectomy improves survival is not known but may relate to reduction in the large primary immunosuppressive burden. Patient selection factors including performance status and serum factors (Hgb, corrected Ca++, LDH) stratify metastatic patients into risk groups, which are strongly associated with survival time in both medically and surgically treated patients with metastatic renal cancer. The development of multi-kinase and mTOR inhibitors has markedly improved survival in treatment naïve and previously treated patients with metastatic renal cancer , and these agents are currently under active clinical investigation in the neo-adjuvant and adjuvant setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]