1. One-sample prediction for the failure number of lognormal distribution in the future time interval.
- Author
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SUN Yong-quan, GUO Jian-ying, WANG Kai, and CHEN Hong-ke
- Subjects
- *
LOGNORMAL distribution , *DISTRIBUTION (Probability theory) , *WIND turbines , *STOCHASTIC processes , *ELECTRIC utilities , *MATHEMATICAL models - Abstract
One-sample prediction for the failure number of lognormal distribution in the future time interval was studied based on product life estimation and prediction theories. Odd ratio was introduced, and then predictor and prediction interval of the failure number in the future under lognormal distribution were obtained, finally, prediction accuracy was discussed through analyzing the influence factors of the prediction results. According to the engineering background that the large wind farm demanded for reserves of the wind turbine key components, an example was presented to show the validity. Failure number prediction is useful to plan key components reserves for multiple devices running simultaneously and optimize maintenance support strategy rationally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2013