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After the initiation of carbon trading pilots in seven provinces and cities in China, issues of their effectiveness and impact on economy, environment and export are of great significance to policy makers, managers and experts of environmental science. To respond to these issues, we first define the concepts of carbon emission reduction, energy saving and low-carbon economy and discuss policy measures and economic instruments related to carbon emission reduction. Focusing on "quantity control" and "price control", we analyze in detail their implementation process and actual effectiveness in both theoretical and practical points. Also, we present in this paper the mechanism and pathways of carbon emission reduction and their inspiration to China from macro, micro and technical perspectives. We then review the related literature and comment how these academic results can be used to help China to achieve its carbon reduction target at optimal economic costs. Finally, we point out the deficiencies and possible theoretical gaps in the previous studies and present some important issues that need further academic exploration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set (HFLTS) is defined as an ordered and consecutive subset of the linguistic term set for a linguistic variable. This paper carries out some states of the art review over the development of HFLTS theory. Firstly, we introduce the definition and originality of the HFLTS, and then conduct the review from four aspects, which are the hesitant fuzzy linguistic fusion theory, the hesitant fuzzy linguistic measurement theory, the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation theory and the hesitant fuzzy linguistic decision making methodologies. Finally, we outline the future research directions on qualitative decision making with hesitant fuzzy linguistic information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy and environmental issues associated with the automotive industry constraints gradually expanded, with the continuous development of new energy vehicles and vehicle types constantly updated, the future of Chinese auto energy saving and environmental benefit analysis has yet to be analyzed. Firstly, this paper cited competition mechanism based on biological populations Lotka-Volterra model, using MATLAB modeling, simulation electric vehicles, conventional cars and natural gas vehicles in the next 40 years to maintain the amount of curve; combined with energy consumption and emissions in the process of car use and fuel production, car ownership of three models, quantitative analysed the energy conservation and emissions reduction benefits of automobile type change in the future. The results showed that: the future of conventional cars and natural gas car ownership will show the first increase after a decrease of parabolic trends, electric car ownership is "S" trend continues to grow; future total energy consumption and carbon emissions from vehicles show increased and then decreased of parabolic trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we first use a simple mathematic model to infer the role of buy-side analysts in correcting the optimistic stock recommendation and earning forecast of sell-side analysts, and then investigating the relationship between investor sentiment and optimistic stock recommendation and earning forecast in those two types of analysts. The results show that, when the market sentiment is higher, the stock recommendation and earning forecast are more optimistic for sell-side analysts, whereas the stock recommendation and earning forecast are more conservative for buy-side analysts. Further evidence confirm that the relationship between in market sentiment and stock recommendation and earning forecast are significantly different between buy-side analysts and sell-side analysts. Our findings have import implications for stock market development in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's logistics cost has been higher than developed countries for a long time. High oil price since 2010 promoted the increase of logistics costs. The impact of logistics cost on inflation received extensive concern, however there is little related quantitative research. This paper investigated the impact of logistics cost on output and price level in China by a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR). The main findings are the following. First, logistics cost has a negative long-term impact on the output of main industrial products. Second, logistics cost has a positive effect on price levels, especially, CPI responses more significantly to logistics cost than PPL Third, the impulse of logistics cost to CPI and PPI is mainly transmitted through food price. In a word, logistics cost is an important impetus to inflation, and reducing logistics cost is of great importance for expanding output and stabilizing price levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concept of systemic risk was defined in this paper to test the systemic risk in China insurance market based on stocks data from the two different angles of view. Take tail dependence, by constructing Kendall coordinate coefficient test, as cut-in spot, SV-t models and fat-tail SV-GED models were constructed to fit the data. Based on AIC information rules and Hit test, the appropriate copula models with different dependence structures were chose. From empirical analysis, unbalance tail dependence structure between China Life, Pingan and CPIC is positive, China insurance market would transfer systemic risk as part of a chain and itself may assemble systemic risk. The reason why there exists systemic risk in insurance market, as well as the suggestions on how to reduce the lower tail dependence, was put out. It may contribute to our Macro-prudential Supervision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improving energy efficiency is an important approach to decrease energy consumption, and the magnitude of energy rebound effect caused by technology progress directly affects the effectiveness of energy effect policies. This paper briefly reviews the main theory of energy rebound effect, with China's 30 provincial government panel data from 1996 to 2011, builds a double logarithm and a panel error correction model to empirically analyze the direct rebound effect of urban residential electricity use. The results show that: the Chinese urban residential electricity consumption exists a partial rebound effect, and the longterm rebound effect is 0.71, the short-term rebound effect is 0.47. A majority of the expected reduction in urban residential electricity consumption from efficiency improvement could be offset due to the existence of rebound effect. The rebound effect impairs the functions of energy efficiency policies, and therefore the Chinese government should take the effect into consideration when formulating energy policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nearly 20 years of rapid economic growth has a significant impact in poverty reduction in China. However, rural districts show slower improvement due to the difference in individual income and distribution policy between rural and urban regions, which emphasizes the importance of rural distincts in poverty reduction in China. This paper is limited to neither geographical division nor economic zoning, but creatively utilizes the decomposition of SST index to group the provinces in a 3-dimensional space, that is, to group the provinces according to their performance and characteristics in poverty, aiming to make the division of rural poverty group more reasonable. We carry out the group study basing on the CHNS rural data of 9 provinces, and further prove validity of the division by Shapley decomposition of FGT index differences. Take into consideration the characteristic of rural poverty groups and sources of differences, we suggest specific measures be taken for poverty reduction of different groups for reference. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As to the applied range and optimization of grey forecast model, according to the principle that grey GM(1,1) model's parameters are grey and adjustable, the connotation model and parameter packet formulas of GM(1,1, β) were put forward in this paper, and some properties of the model and model's optimization algorithm was analyzed. The results show that the objective valuing region of parameter a of GM(1,1, β) model is (-∞+ ∞), and the objective valuing region of parameter a of GM(1,1) model is (- 2,+2), the objective valuing region of parameter a is determined by the background value coefficient, and it has nothing with raw data sequence; GM(1,1, β) grey differential equation completely suits for the homogeneous exponential function series. Finally, the example of simulating and forecasting the per capita income of urban dwellers in China shows that the grey differential equation GM(1,1, β) is valid. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aiming at the deficiency of traditional data envelopment analysis (DEA) model, combined with the characteristics of high-tech industry R&D innovation process, the R&D innovation process is decomposed into technological development and economic transformation sub stage, considering "relationship of the sub stage" and "distribution structure of the initial input in the sub stage", this paper constructs two-stage network DEA model with constrained resources, so it realizes the improvement of high-tech industry R&D innovation efficiency measurement method, and this model is applied to empirically evaluate the efficiency of R&D innovation and sub stage for 17 Chinese high-tech industries, and get initial input configuration information. Compared with the existing researches, this model breaks through constraints which traditional DEA models ignore the high-tech industry R&D innovation system internal structure. The empirical results show that: From both the whole and two sub stage, the efficiency of 17 Chinese high-tech industries are low, which have considerable improvement room; according to efficiency matrix diagram, only ECPEM 3 subdivision industries belong to efficient intensive innovation, the most industries are characterized by double weak or a strong and a weak; according to the 5 kinds which 17 industries belong to, the overall R&D innovation efficiency of ECOEI is the highest, AAMI is the lowest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an open economy, China also has a typical dual economy. These two economic characteristics may affect China's inflation in the following three aspects: First, the prices of imported intermediate goods might influence firms' costs. Second, the modes of pricing for food and non-food might be of a great difference as a result of the conduct of most agricultural product prices by government (that is, the market of agricultural products has not been released). Third, the transfer of rural labor force may change the urban labor market balance, and then affect firms' costs. In contrast to previous work, this paper models China's inflation using new Keynesian Phillips curve considering the above three factors and monetary policy shocks. Empirical results show that forward-looking behavior is predominant (accounting for about 2/3 of firms) in non-food sector, and that non-food prices are fixed for about three quarters on average. Real marginal costs including dual economy and open economy elements have a significant impact on inflation dynamics. The transfer of rural labor force also has a significant effect on inflation, but the directly supply-side effect of monetary policy (measured by interest rate) on inflation is insignificant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are many methods of decomposition in traditional structural decomposition analysis (SDA) due to non-uniqueness. The random selection of SDA often causes differences in results. Based on this, we introduced a new method, called path-based method (PBM), to precisely analyze the impact of elements on the total variations. In this paper, taking Gansu province as research area, the changes in local water resource utilization were investigated from 2002 to 2007. PBM was used to analyze the impacts of local water utilization with water utilization intensity, production technology and final demand. Results show that declining water utilization per unit of gross output leads to lower local water resource utilization in most sectors; the effect of production technology suggests that the change in production technology causes a decrease trend in local water resource utilization; increasing final demand always yields increasing water resource utilization. Through the study of three factors affecting water resource utilization, cultivation accounts for the largest portion in the contribution of the changes in water resource utilization. It indicates that local water resource utilization is mainly decided by cultivation in Gansu province. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is one debating point between traditional and behavioral financial theories why momentum effect persists in most financial markets. In view of Chinese stock markets' features, this paper constructs "relative price" momentum portfolios based on "anchoring bias" and "disposition effect" in behavioral financial theories, and explores the relationship among these new momentums and classical momentums. The results show after controlling the classical momentum effect and systematic risk factors, the relative price momentum effect still exists. However, after controlling the relative price momentum effect, the classical momentum effect disappears. If considering transaction costs, investors could not benefit from the momentum strategies. These findings indicate that "anchoring bias" and "disposition effect" are important reasons of momentum effect in Chinese stock markets' features, and high transaction costs hinder the arbitrary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to Japanese nuclear leakage, the State Council of China claimed to stop approving new nuclear power projects before nuclear safety program was enacted. Since nuclear power is one of the most important clean energy sources, how will this affect China's emissions reduction target in 2020, and how should we adjust development planning of other clean energy sources in order to meet China's commitment of emissions mitigation? To address these questions, a CGE-based clean energy development model for China was developed in this paper. In the proposed model, nuclear power, hydropower and other clean energy sources were involved in production module as important energy inputs. Based on the data for the year 2007, the model was run up to the year of 2020 with different scenarios of other clean energy development. Simulation results indicate that whether or not China can meet emissions mitigation commitment under the scenario of stopping approving is closely dependent on diverse factors, especially energy consumption elasticity; however, accelerating the development of other clean energy sources will make large contributions to China's emissions reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper simulated the influence of technological progress based FDI on China's agriculture through theoretical analysis and CGE model. The results show: With the East Asian regional economic cooperation, there were increasing FDI based on free trade area to China gradually, The technological progress of agriculture and their factors sectors would promote their production and exports. Vegetables, meat and milk exports increased significantly, while real wages and aggregate consumer value dropped; The elasticity of economic indicators to technological progress based on agricultural factors sector were relatively large, The lager technological progress of agricultural sector, the greater regional differences in output growth, while the technological progress of agricultural factors sectors led to even more regional development unbalanced compared to agricultural sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In view of the situations that the locations of high-speed rail terminals in some cities are far from the city centers, this paper put forward an approach to design feeder bus lines considering two aspects of demands. One is recent demand for transporting high-speed rail passengers between city centers and rail terminals; the other is long-term demand for directly connecting the bus system in city centers and the bus system in the emerging city unit around rail terminals. The optimization model for selecting the bus lines was built based on the two aspects of demands and then the related solution ant-colony algorithm was designed. The case of designing the feeder bus lines for anting rail terminals on Shanghai-Nanjing intercity railway was used to illustrate the model and the algorithm. The index showed the optimized feeder bus lines have the characters of quick and reliable service quality and good potential for the transition to express lines in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper extends Banerjee and Duflo's software offshoring model to an incentive-compatible framework and use it to restructure payment contracting in order to control offshoring risk more effectively. We propose a two-stage payments contracting with an embedded milestone-inspection trigger option. The vendor can only get the second-stage payment given her first-stage work satisfies certain criteria set by the client at the inspection point. We model such trigger option using an indicator function method and show that the embedded trigger option improves offshoring-risk mitigation and makes the vendor work harder. Furthermore, embedded trigger option imposes constraints on and thus improve on the client's behavior by changing the share ratio of the overrun for the client. Empirical evidence from the survey data of the China's vendors for the Japanese clients strongly supports main results of our model. Particularly, evidence supports that trigger option helps risk mitigation mainly by improving vendor's overrun reduction efficiency and is a bilateral incentive mechanism for both the client and the vendor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Basing on the theoretical model and empirical analysis, this paper provides a discussion of the hedging effectiveness between the stock market and index future market under the imperfect market conditions. In theoretical analysis, the relation of market imperfection with market microstructure noise and hedging effectiveness is established. In empirical analysis, one approach based on nonparametric estimation is established and applied to real data. The reasonableness of model assumptions and the correction of model conclusions are verified by using 5-minute frequency intra data. Both theoretical and empirical analyses show that the higher the degree of market imperfection, the more necessary to consider the impact of market microstructure noise when using stock index futures to hedge the stock market risk. The empirical results also show that there exists a high degree of imperfection between stock market and stock index future market, but the degree of imperfection has a decreasing trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the generation of electric power contributes a large percentage of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in China, CO2 reduction in the electricity power industry is the most effective way to develop low-carbon economy. In the paper, the multi-attribute procurement auction theory is introduced into the electric power generation market. The CO2 emissions from electric power generation and the grid tariff are identified as key attributes for selecting winners. Based on these two attributes, an optimal multiattribute procurement mechanism considering CO2 emissions in electric power generation market is firstly established. Then, the incentive compatible mechanism analysis and a reasonable procurement auction process are provided. Finally, a case study is conducted to illustrate such procurement auction process motivates the electric power generators to implement the economic behavior and CO2 emission reduction behavior. Therefore, the proposed nmlti-attribute procurement mechanism is of great significance in the market-oriented reformation of electric industry and the development of low-carbon economy in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a new warrants pricing method based on nonparametric estimation with respect to China warrants market and Hong Kong warrants market, and applies it to out-of-time prediction. The result shows that model-guided nonparametric correction method outperforms direct nonparametric method, semi-parametric model and parametric model. In addition, model-guided nonparametric correction method has better performance than other models in terms of out-of-time prediction ability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compared with the large scale of presale property market in China, researches on the relationship between China's presale and spot real estate prices are far from adequate. By the experiences of research on financial market, this paper adopts VECM model to research price lead-lag relationship between presale and spot housing market in China. By testing both the short-run and long-run Granger casualty relationship, the results indicate that there's a bilateral price lead-lag relationship between Chinese presale and spot property market. The outcomes of VECM models and variance decomposition demonstrate that presale housing market plays a greater role in the property price discovery process in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Researches on effects of blockholders to firm's performance are mostly conceptually based on principal-agency model, and the results are likely to be negative, e.g. tunneling. Plentiful researches in China show the similar answers. In fact, as an independent legal entities, the blockholders of public-listed companies of China have frequently done their own businesses and incurred their own financing activities, for instance stock rights pledging (SRP) financing which popularized in currently years. These financing activities therefore would have deeply impacts on the companies' performance, albeit what and how of the impacts remain unanswered. Based on the nature of blockholders and the contextual financing constraints in China, this paper empirically exploits causality of blockholders' SRPs on companies' performance improvement. Our research shows: (1) comparing to state-owned blockholders, non-state-owned blockholders which are seriously encountered financing constraints, have therefore taken much more SRP as their financing strategies; (2) to blockholders, there exists relationship between SRPs and their equity-holdings at large. Further investigations show that, comparing to state-owned blockholders, this relationship to the non-state-owned blockholders, who have to take risks in financing which could be reluctantly forced by financing constraints is empirically negative; (3) underlying the controlling rights transferring risks which would be concomitantly encountered by blockholders, SRP of the no-state-owned blockholders do motivate themselves to improve, not deteriorate firm's performance, although the same effect does not find on state-owned blockholders. Merely from the perspective of SRP, this result also demonstrates that behaviors of blockholders (at least on non-state-owned) are incline to be rational, letting their existences are not purely to play tunneling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to describe the dynamic relationship between futures and spot cotton market in China. Price discovery and volatility spillovers were examined for futures and spot cotton market based on VEC model, Granger causality test, impulse response analysis and BEKK model. The empirical results show that there is a eointegration relation between spot and futures prices of cotton. The futures market is the leader of price discovery in long-term, although bidirectional Granger causality are observed in short run. Meanwhile, the response of futures market is faster than spot market when they received impacts at the same time. Besides, there are strong volatility lagging effects and volatility spillovers in both markets, which in futures market are dominant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a new panel quantile regression model with change points at unknown positions, which parameters are estimated by Bayesian inference and MCMC sampling. By an empirical study to explore structural changes in the high-frequency dependence from trading volume and market trend to IPO's initial return in China's growth enterprise market, it is found that: structural change points are near the market opening for higher quantiles of returns, and close to the median trading time for lower quantiles; the IPO's trading volume gives a greater impact on IPO's return before change points than after change points on listing date, while the volume of Shenzhen composite index contributes larger impact on IPO's return after change points than before change points; the separation of return and volume of IPOs is detected both at lower quantiles before the change points and at any quantile after the change points; the volume of Shenzhen composite index is positively correlated to IPO's return through all quantiles before or after change points, moreover, the correlation coefficients after change points are stronger than ones before change points, and the same is true at extreme quantiles than at median quantiles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to explore whether the warrants in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges are redundant securities by empirical studies. To obtain an exact analysis, an appropriate sample is selected from August, 2005 to December, 2009, which can exclude the influence of reform of non-tradable shares, dilution effect of warrants and recreation effect of warrants on the return of underlying assets. Wild bootstrap event study methods were employed to overcome the problem of too small sample size, which were performed on abnormal return, cumulative abnormal return, and standardized cumulative abnormal return to test the magnitude effect. The results demonstrate no evidence of magnitude effect after the introduction of warrants. However, the evidence of sign effect is found: the percentage of negative average cumulative abnormal return was bigger than that of the positive average cumulative abnormal return after the introduction of warrants. We claim that this phenomenon is caused by the migration of radical agents from stock market to warrants market and the warrants in Shanghai and conclude that Shenzhen stock exchanges are not redundant securities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To investigate the opportunity and perspective of developing Chinese oil carrier fleet and to rationalize the size and composition of the fleet, a series of mathematical models and methods for fleet allocation and planning have been studied, strategic planning of developing the fleet for importing and exporting crude oil for China has been systematically investigated, and the strategic development planning from 2000 to 2010 of Chinese crude oil fleet has been worked out. After eleven years of practice in the planning horizon, this paper presents the methodology and outcomes produced then and compares the outcomes with the corresponding facts of Chinese crude oil fleet development in the period from 2000 to 2010. Results show that the mathematical models and methods employed in the case study are of rationality and practicability, study on fleet allocation and planning with modern systems analysis technology is of special strategic significance to fleet investment and development of big shipping companies. Finally, experiences in planning a fleet for a country or for a big company are summarized and suggestions for doing better in this regard are given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The microscopic study of market structure is always one of the important research directions, the relevant studies of the degree and the influence of the market power, domestically, however, might be with much importance due to the significant characteristic of concentrated supply of housing by the developers. This paper estimates the price elasticity of demand for 1029 commercial housing project and, of which, the Lerner Index for 494 elastic ones using the micro-level data set from Beijing. Based on the estimated result, the spatial distribution of the degree of monopoly of the housing market in Beijing is derived, and the impact of market power on the housing trading premium is empirically tested. It is revealed that every one percent marginal increase of the market power will result in 0.83% increase of the premium, which is excellent robust over different segmentations of sub-market. Besides, an analysis perspective, based on the concept of elasticity, is provided helping to explain the phenomenon of unwillingness to sell in recent market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers an optimal investment problem for a risk-averse entrepreneur facing business risk to maximize the expectation of total consumption utility through consumption smoothing, real investment, bankruptcy protection and financial investment when the debt and enterprise income tax are given. We derive semi-closed-form solution for capital value, optimal business strategy and bankruptcy threshold in a non-risk-neutral world. In addition, we obtain the expected return, beta coefficient, system risk premium and idiosyncratic risk premium corresponding CAPM. Unlike the classical theory, the idiosyncratic risk premium is strictly positive once the entrepreneur is risk-averse. The conclusions and numeric results show that the risk attitude of the entrepreneur has a significant effect on the value of the capital, optimal capital structure, real investment strategy, bankruptcy threshold, idiosyncratic risk premium and expected return. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper attempts to valuate these policies using the risk-neutral pricing method of financial mathematics. The framework in which the fair value of these policies is priced in a stochastic interest rate environment is presented. We analyze the guaranteed interest rate option and the surrender option separately. The values of embedded options are derived using the least square Monte Carlo approach. Using the calibrated parameters, we find out that the stochastic interest rate assumption affects the valuation considerably in comparison to the constant interest rate. Additionally, the volatility of assets and the smoothing mechanism are important for valuing the policy holders' claims. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a dramatically increase in institutional investors ownership of Chinese stock market from 2003. In this paper, we improve the MS-GARCH model to analyze the daily returns data, and provide empirical evidence on the impact of sub-owned shares reform and institutional investors in stock market. We find that Chinese stock market transform form low volatility state to high volatility state after the sub-owned shares reform. The results also prove that different funds have vary effects on the volatility of the stock market, and the adjusting of interest rate and reserve ratio could also affect the the volatility of the stock market. According to the comparison between two models, MS-GARCH model is much better than single-regime GARCH model in goodness-of-fit and forecasting performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Application of the super capacitor automobiles in a safe operational condition is significant and necessary, which has been a new energy strategy in China. As the traditional methods of safety analysis, FTA has no ability to describe dynamics and quantitative analysis of the accident, while ETA is restricted by the safety analysis of complex systems. This paper builds bridge for conversion between GTST-MLD and Petri net, for example, basic symbol, base type and 5 evolution routes of accident. The integrated approach is not only qualitatively describes the evolution of safety accident, but also combines with other factors such as time and probability of the evolutionary progress, and provides a more accurate quantitative result of safety assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A dynamic computable general equilibrium model that contains 37 production sectors and 4 foreign accounts was developed in this paper to study the impacts of USA's border carbon adjustments on China's economy. Based on the data of year 2007, 7 scenarios with different tax rates were designed from the year 2020 up to the year 2030. The simulation results show that the USA's border carbon adjustments will cut down Chinese enterprises' profits of export to USA, decrease China's export to USA, and indirectly have negative impacts on the whole economy. The USA's border carbon adjustments will have different impacts on different industries in China, amongst of which the industry of electric power and heat power generation and industry of cement, lime and gypsum may suffer most from the USA's carbon motivated border tax adjustments policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the background of the implicit deposit insurance system in China, this paper includes risk-sensitive capital adequacy requirement and punish function of regulatory authority in bank profit function, and proposes a new theoretical model to probe into the inherent mechanism of how capital regulation affects macroeconomic fluctuation under new Basel capital accord. The theoretical analysis shows that an increase in the risk-sensitive capital adequacy requirement or punitive measures will make the optimal loan supply less sensitive to changes in the interest rate, and will move the IS curve toward lower left and make the IS curve steeper when the financial market is incomplete, which can reduce the balanced output of economy. The GMM of a dynamic panel data model is adopted to empirical study, the results show that capital regulation in China has a credit shrinking effect and a negative impact on economic growth for the period 2001 to 2008, which aggravates macroeconomic fluctuation especially in a recession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to make the ecological compensation for river basin more reasonable and stimulate the water ecological protection initiatives of the upstream region, the water ecological compensation amount allocation method is proposed based on the model of DEA cooperative game with the supposition of cooperation among different areas along the basin. Considering the limitation of classic Shapley value in cooperative game, this value is improved by the weight among different areas confirmed by trapezoidal fuzzy number. Applied to Xin'an River basin, its result indicates that the allocation method adopted in this paper not only made the driving force for ecoloical protection stronger, but also combined the importance of different index such as the water and its benefits in the basin, meanwhile, the water benefits was considered among different areas. Thus, it is more reasonable, and it could provide reference for the ecological compensation amount allocation research of the other basins cross regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the mode choice problem considering the peak travel chain in a day. The transportation system comprises a subway parallel to a bottleneck-constrained highway between a residential area and a working place. Commuters can get their destinations by either auto or transit only; besides these two modes, they can drive to .the bottleneck, park there and then take subway to the destination. Based on the bottleneck theory, a hierarchical Logit model is used to describe commuters' mode choice behaviors, and then mode choice equilibrium equations under elastic demand are constructed. Furthermore, optimal fare and parking fee strategies under four mechanisms are discussed. It is shown that when transit and park-and-ride place are operated by government and the working area parking lot belongs to a private enterprise, lower fares and higher parking fees in working area can effectively encourage parking interchanging, increase public transit trip contribution rate and maximize the system's total net benefit. Numerical results also support the current differentiation parking charge policy in Beijing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the core issues of mergers & acquisitions (M&A) of Chinese automobile industry is how to promote sustainable innovation capability effectively. This paper combines system dynamics with the strategic map, builds system dynamics model, and simulates and analyzes main variable. It shows that reasonable post-merger integration model can enhance sustainable innovation capability, perfect mechanism of cooperative efforts of industry and university and research institute is the key to raise the level of cooperative efforts, share of self-owned brands and sustainable innovation capability can promote each other, and market concentration can not directly enhance sustainable innovation capability. Only the mutual coordination and integration of the main factors can enhance the sustainable innovation capability effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fact that local governments rely heavily on land finance has fostered the emergence of "land lease price champion" in many cities across the country through land auctions and land auctions are most likely to cause excessive land auction premium. This paper focuses on residential and commercial land lease transactions in Beijing for a period from 2003 to 2010 and studies the driving forces of the observed land auction premium using hedonic pricing methodology. Results show that land use purpose, floor-to-site ratio, location, the type of land bidder and distance to city center significantly impact the land auction premium. Comparing with private real estate companies, state-owned real estate firms exert more impact on land auction premium. Another finding is that part of the stimulus package released in 2009 to cope with the economic crisis has been directed to land market through state-owned real estate firms that pushes up the land prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Steel industry is the pillar industry of China. There exist three types of markets in domestic which are different from other foreign markets: bulk stock electronic market, futures market and spot market. China's steel electronic market is a unique' steel market. Its price discovery has been of concern to theorists and industry. Study on price discovery in domestic and abroad steel markets is of great use to the formation of steel pricing power, as well as the smoothy development of domestic steel markets. This paper uses two classical methods which belongs to common factor measurement model to measure the price discovery of three domestic steel markets and two foreign steel futures markets. The results show that: steel electronic market is the leading market in domestic steel markets. The price discovery of steel electronic market is more powerful than SHFE, LME and NCDEX; and abroad steel futures price is still not an effective steel price by now. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we employ a three-regime-switching model, to capture the nonlinear characteristics of the Chinese stock market bubble dynamics, and to test the explanatory power of heterogeneous beliefs for the regime-switching. We find that the bubbles in SHSE can be distinguished into dormant, explosive and collapsing three regimes, and the abnormal trade volume and the excessive return have the significant explanatory power of the regime switching. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To solve the serious situation of high unemployment, the Chinese government has enforced demand-side anti-cycle economic policies. But evidence shows that these policies are inefficient and cause other problems. To improve the efficiency of the government anti-cycle economic policies, the efficiency of the supply-side policies must first of all be evaluated. This paper studies the effects of the cut of tax and other firm's burden using the data of the investigation of China's 120 cities directed by the World Bank in 2005. The regression based estimation shows that employment is very sensitive to tax cut, which proves tax cut is an effective policy to increase employment. The estimation also shows that good governance is of great help to increase employment. It is imperative that we adjust the currently implemented policies and pay more attention on supply-side policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces stochastic volatility and jump factors into the short-rate models, and uses a method combining sequential parameter updating and particle filter to implement the estimation of both states and parameters. Then, we use this extended models to analyze the Chinese inter-bank short-term interest rate. The empirical results show that the short-rate has obvious features of stochastic volatility and jump, and the CIR-SV-J model is the best one for describing the short-rate dynamics. If any factor of stochastic volatility or jump is ignored, the model-fitting performance would be worse, and the mean-reversion feature could not be accurately identified. Finally, our results indicate that the stochastic volatility factor is relatively more important in modeling short-rate dynamics than the jump factor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes an improved adaptive importance sampling method that can be used for variables following a GEV distribution. The L-moment method is employed to build the relationship between sample statistics and distribution parameters. In the case study, the 24-hour design storm of Yungang Basin in Zhejiang Province is considered, and the probability of extreme precipitation is calculated for two rainfall gauge stations, Jinzhuling and Xianrentan. The results show that the proposed method performs well in simulating extreme rainfall, and the iterative number decreases as the number of samples increases. Compared with traditional MC simulation, the improved adaptive importance sampling method has better efficiency. Besides, this method has huge potential to be used for other distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the origin-destination-based Frank-Wolfe algorithm proposed by Anthony Chen (2002) which means the shortest-path of all OD pairs with the same origin was searched in the algorithm at one time and the link flow was updated by using one-OD-at-a-time flow update strategy, the initialization, linear search and shortest path search of ODBFW algorithm was improved in this paper, and the improved ODBFW algorithm was proposed. The improved ODBFW algorithm was used for Sioux Falls network which was common used in international similar researches and the road network of Zhucheng City, Shandong Province, China to compare the feasibility, efficiency and stability of the standard FW algorithm, ODBFW algorithm and improved ODBFW algorithm. The results indicated that the improved ODBFW algorithm has more efficiency and stability than standard FW algorithm. The time used for the improved ODBFW algorithm to reach convergence is nearly 15% less than the time used for the original algorithm in small road network, and is nearly 5% less than that in large road network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As to the optimization of the power exponent and background value in the GM(1,1) power model, this paper summarizes the modeling steps and disadvantages of the traditional method. Two non-linear optimization models are constructed with the objective of minimum average relative error, the constraints of relationships between parameters in order to optimize the power exponent and the background value. The results show that the optimized models make the absolute value of the average relative error smallest in theory. The new method has solved the problem of the inconsistency in grey model testing. Finally, we illustrated the superiority and effectiveness of the new methods with the example of simulating and forecasting the promotion rates from senior secondary schools to higher education in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The grim fact of difficult practice is an awkward response to the argument that strengthening the practice can improve the college students' difficult employment. And so it is an urgent matter to construct effective university-enterprise alliance mechanisms. In order to explore the alliance mechanisms suitable for China's national situation, it can play a role of finding root and source to rationally analyze the internship union's embarrassing situation and explore the evolution mode. However, it is scarcely seen to quantitatively discuss the problem. This paper attempts to utilize the evolutionary game theory to explore the change of alliance mode. First an asymmetric game model is given, and then the alliance model's change, the evolutionary equilibrium and the evolution path are analyzed succussively based on the duplicate dynamics equations. Finally, two pieces of constructive advice are given for the government to positively construct the alliance mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on regime switching mixed Copula model, this paper finds the tail dependence between Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hongkong, Taiwan stock markets is a dynamic asymmetric process. In the state of low risk, right tail dependence is higher than left tail dependence; in the state of high risk, the situation is opposite. The tail dependence between Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hongkong stock markets is much stronger and more sensitive to exterior shocks than that between Shanghai, Shenzhen and Taiwan stock markets. The tail dependence between Shenzhen and Hongkong, Taiwan stock markets is more sensitive to exterior shocks than that between Shanghai and Hongkong, Taiwan stock markets. Tail dependence shows Chinese stock market risk increases significantly in the crisis and financial contagion happens. Furthermore, the tail dependence shows two big simultaneous structure changes correspond to the first and second stages of the crisis, which means the stock market risk is systematic. However, the third stage of the crisis almost has no influence on Chinese stock markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The housing policy of "encouraging the consumptive demand for housing and curbing the speculative one" proposed by the Chinese Central Government puts forward such new issues as how to define the consumptive demand for housing and the speculative one, and how to encourage one but curb the other at the same time. These issues are vital to carrying out the housing policy. However, most existing relative literatures focus only on some family demographic variables, lacking of policy controllability and guidance. In this paper a series of expected economic variables are introduced into the housing demand analysis for the first time. Assuming wealth gains consuming completely after investment, investment indirect utility is expressed with consumption utility, making housing investment demand analysis more perfect. Applying comparative static analysis, the relationship between housing demand and some variable, such as the family economic status and their microeconomic expectation variable, is got. These theoretical analyses would apply some guidance to the empirical parts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Logistics cost control is always an academic and business circles' hot topic and the enterprise can effectively reduces business costs by controlling this "black continent". This paper built the structure model of manufacturing enterprise's logistics operational cost, and simulated the model: a case study of Tianjin handicraft firm, finally proposed some optimizational tactics. The research results indicated that the complex relation among factors of manufacturing enterprise's logistics operational cost system could be better revealed with the use of system dynamics methodology and the method proposed can provide guides and references for logistics cost control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bank loans is the mainly channels of the external financing for corporations in China, and loan renewals policy determines whether a company can continue to access bank loans. By the data of Chinese non-financial listed companies in stock exchange market, the paper investigates the relationships between political connections, institutional environments and loan renewals. The thesis finds that political connections do have impacts on access to more preferential treats of bank loans. And political connections have impacts on bank loans in different institutional environments. We also found that the higher level of regional property right protection, the less powerful of the government intervention and the higher of the financial development, the less loan renewals the enterprises will get. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the annual data set, which involves a balanced panel of four port cities exports to 32 countries and Hong Kong, China over the period of 1997 2008, this paper is the first attempt to extend the conventional gravity model to measure the effect of transport costs and port efficiency on China's exports. Our results can be summarized in three main findings: 1) the improvement of port efficiency and reduction of road transport costs play a vital role in China's export competitiveness in the global market. The coefficient estimates on them are relatively large, around 0.72 and -0.89, respectively; 2) the effect of transport costs and port efficiency on China-to-Asia exports significantly exceeds that on China-to-Europe and China-to-America exports; 3) the overall estimated elasticity of road, railroad and port measure is 1.66, which is almost three times that of the average wage of port cities. The empirical results provide strong evidences that improvement in the quality of transportation services in port cities of China exhibit significant economic effects not only on how much but also how trade grows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]