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With the further implementation of capital market opening policies, how will the linkage effect between RMB exchange rate, foreign capital flows and mainland stock market evolve? This paper studies the time-varying characteristics of the dynamic relationship among RMB exchange rate, Shanghai-tong and Shanghai-50 index based on SV-TVP-SVAR model. We find that from the perspective of current relationship, RMB exchange rate significantly and negatively influenced the net inflow of Shanghai-tong and Shanghai-50 index, and the net inflow of Shanghai-tong have a significant positive impact on Shanghai-50 index. From the perspective of impulse response, the depreciation of RMB has generally led to net outflow of Shanghai-tong and dragged down Shanghai-50 index. The net inflow of Shanghai-tong has a significant time-varying impact on the depreciation of RMB and promotes the rise of Shanghai-50 index. The rise of Shanghai-50 index led to the appreciation of RMB and the outflow of Shanghai-tong, confirmed the reverse investment style of Shanghai-tong fund. In this paper, we first described the linkage effect among RMB exchange rate, Shanghai-tong trading and mainland market, and put forward some targeted policies to improve SH-HK stock connect trading mechanism, maintain the stable of RMB exchange rate and promote the healthy development of capital market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Performance allocation is a hotspot and difficult point in performance management research. This paper fully considers the impact of individual differences on performance allocation satisfaction. To this end, the score conversion function is used to convert the initial scores of the basic workload of the assessment objects, and then the K-means clustering method is used to classify the assessment objects; Secondly, it discusses the optimal solution of the most favorable and unfavorable basic workload for the assessment objects, and obtains the most favorable and unfavorable performance allocation ratio for the assessment objects. The satisfaction functions of the assessment objects are constructed. On this basis, we establish the multi-objective optimization model of optimal performance allocation and obtain the Pareto optimization solution. Finally, the numerical experiment of the performance allocation of a university teacher is carried out by using the model, the results show that the multi-objective performance allocation model constructed in this paper has a good effect on improving the satisfaction of performance allocation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mutually exclusive products (such as liquids, hazardous chemicals, etc.) cannot be mixed into the same container. Logistics companies usually use multi-compartment trucks to deliver mutually exclusive products to customers. The loading and vehicle routing strategies are the key issues to determine the distribution efficiency and distribution costs. Considering the constraints of loading and unloading sequence and transportation time of mutually exclusive products, a joint optimization model of loading and distribution is constructed to minimize the distribution cost. This paper designs an improved genetic algorithm for solving the model, using the queen evolution and the edge reconstruction crossover operations based on probability to lift the ability of finding the optimal solution. Then we construct the testing examples based on the vehicle routing problem benchmark provided by Augerat to verify the running time and solving efficient of genetic algorithm. The simulation results show that, the solutions obtained by improved genetic algorithm are better than those of classical genetic algorithm, for small-scale examples, the improved genetic algorithm can obtains global optimal solution; for the medium-sized or large size examples with no more than 101 customers, the approximate optimal solution can be obtained in 130 seconds using genetic algorithm. The innovation of this paper lies in the establishment of a mathematical model for a new expended vehicle routing problem and the design of a fast and effective algorithm for solving the model. The mathematical model and algorithm of this paper provide a theoretical basis and algorithmic support for logistics companies to draw up distribution schedule of mutually exclusive products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For a multilateral distribution platform with consideration of cross-network externalities, this paper investigated the optimal value-added service (VAS) investing and pricing strategies. Firstly, an optimization model that maximizes the platform profit was formulated. Subsequently, the optimal VAS investing and pricing strategies were obtained by solving the optimization model. Finally, numerical analyses were conducted to investigate the influence of relevant parameters (VAS investment coefficient, marginal VAS investment cost, fundamental investment and cross-network external strengths) on the optimal strategies and the maximum platform profit. Main results of the numerical analyses are as follows:1) if the consumer utility brought by unit VAS investment increases, the platform should increase VAS investment, transaction fee, advertising fee and delivery fee, simultaneously; 2) if the platform's fundamental investment increases, VAS investment should be reduced; 3) if the delivery staff's utility brought by unit consumer's participation increases, the platform should increase advertising fee and VAS investment, and reduce the transaction fee and delivery fee, and even subsidize the consumer; 4) if the advertiser's utility brought by unit consumer's participation increases, the platform should increase VAS investment, advertising fee and delivery fee, and reduce transaction fee; 5) if the consumer's negative utility brought by unit advertiser's participation increases, the platform should greatly increase the advertising fee and the transaction fee, and reduce the delivery fee and VAS investment. The results of this paper provide important policy suggestions for the operations of multilateral distribution platforms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the application boom of vertical take-off and landing unmanned aerial vehicles (VTOL UAVs) is becoming more and more complex, and a lot of scholars have done a lot of research on the way of visual landing based on cooperative targets. Aiming at the limitation of the existing plane cooperative targets to the landing of UAV, this paper designed a three-dimension cooperative target, which was discussed from two aspects:Anti occlusion robustness and reduction of other auxiliary sensors. Basing on the spatial features of the cooperative targets, combining the occlusion characteristics of the polygon and the color information of the nature, this paper designed a three-dimensional cooperative target by induction. At the same time, with the geometric relationship of the cooperative target in the imaging, a position algorithm was proposed based on visual information only. In view of the variable proportion characteristics of camera imaging, the relationship between the projection error of feature extraction and the accuracy of position calculation was deduced, and the influence on the latter was analyzed in depth. The experimental part set up camera imaging simulation system based on Simulink platform, verified the cooperative target anti blocking robustness and the position calculation algorithm. It shows that the error of estimation error is within 0.01 m, and the error of position calculation does not exceed 0.1 m without considering the influence of projection error in most locations. It meets the needs of practical applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the spiral update location model is improved for the loss of population diversity of the whale algorithm in the late. At the same time, the whale optimization algorithm is improved by combining existing methods such as opposite learning strategies, random adjustment parameters, and normal mutation operations. Using the opposite learning strategy to initialize the whale population, lay the foundation for the global search. Using the strategy of randomly adjusting the control parameters, it avoids the late fall into local optimum. Normal mutation operator and improved spiral update position model are designed to interfere with the whale population, avoiding the late arrival of the population to an optimal region and increasing the global search ability of the algorithm. In this paper, the improved algorithm for low-dimensional testing is based on 23 international standard test functions in the literature[4], including unimodal, multimodal, and fixed-dimensional functions. The improved algorithm for high-dimensional testing is based on 25 international standard test functions in the literature[12]. The results show that the IMWOA algorithm is superior to the original WOA algorithm in terms of convergence accuracy and convergence speed, and has universal applicability, stability and ability to solve hyperscale optimization problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As for three-level fractional factorial experiments with multiple responses, this paper proposes a modeling and optimization method considering factorial effect principles when the number of candidate variables is greater than the number of experiment samples in the screening experiment. Firstly, a three-level controlled trial is created, and then a Bayesian Lasso model combing binary variable indicators is constructed in this paper based on the factorial effect principles. Secondly, the prior information of the binary variable indicator is gradually updated in three stages. Then, significant variables and the model structure can be identified by the posterior probability of the variable indicator. Thirdly, a multivariate process capability index function is constructed by Bayesian sampling technique, and the optimal parameter value is obtained by maximizing the function. Finally, the results of actual examples reveal that the proposed method not only can effectively screen out significant variables of three-level fractional factorial experiments with multiple responses, but also can obtain the optimal parameter values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mobilization potential of emergency materials plays an important role for the response to emergency materials under emergencies in China. This paper measures the emergency materials mobilization potential by the final product of the emergency materials after the conversion of raw materials, and establishes the emergency materials mobilization potential evaluation model using system dynamics through analyzing the internal feedback relationship of each sub-module that constitutes the emergency materials mobilization potential. Taking China's petroleum industry chain as the actual background, and the mobilization potential of refined oil as an example, using the idea of "scenario-response", this paper expands the idea of assessing the state value of mobilization potential, quantitatively assesses mobilization potential of refined oil from the aspects of total amount, a certain time point and a certain period of time. The results show that when the demand is at a low level, the reserves of crude oil and refined oil have the greatest contribution to the refined oil mobilization potential. With the increase of demand, the contribution of the company's supernormal production is gradually increasing. In addition, the four factors of the actual production capacity of emergency materials, the amount of crude oil or refined oil reserves and crude oil conversion coefficient have the greatest impact on the refined oil mobilization potential, so it should focus on improving the actual production capacity of emergency materials, the amount of raw materials or final product reserves and the productive efficiency of emergency materials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Community risk prevention is the basis of urban safety. Research on the basic theoretical model for community risk prevention has important theoretical and practical significance. First of all, based on the triangle theory of public safety and security, this paper deeply analyzes the main factors of community risk prevention, including community risk bearing carrier, types of community risks and community emergency management. Then, according to safety management theory, this paper puts forward a triangle model for community risk prevention on the basis of analyzing the connotation of community risk prevention by theoretical thinking method. Finally, the connotation of triangle model is expounded in detail from three aspects:monitoring and control, forecasting and warning, comprehensive prevention, and this triangle model is verified with an instance. The study found that, the triangle model for community safety risk prevention emphasizes that, the community safety construction should be carried out comprehensively based on the whole cycle and the whole system of community risk response. Moreover, the model will provide effective guidance and support to understand community risk prevention and community safety construction [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From the perspective of communication and interaction between firms, based on the essential logic of resource-based view (RBV), this paper investigates the impact of firms' IT capability on the internet interactive strategies (operationalized as IOS-enabled interactive strategies and SM-enabled interactive strategies) and cooperative performance, operationalized as communication efficiency and cooperation satisfaction. Analyzing the data collected from 512 manufacturers in the context of the dyadic relationship between manufacturers and distributors, it finds:First, IT capability has positive effect on the internet interactive strategies, enhancing both IOS-enabled interactive strategies and SM-enabled interactive strategies. Second, although the two internet interactive strategies promote cooperative performance by facilitating firms to communicate and interact with their partners, they function differently-While SM-enabled interactive strategies strengthen both communication efficiency and cooperation satisfaction, IOS-enabled interactive strategies only positively impact cooperation satisfaction but not influence communication efficiency significantly. Third, IOS-enabled interactive strategies positively mediate the positive relationship between IT capability and cooperation satisfaction, and SM-enabled interactive strategies positively mediate the positive relationship between IT capability and communication efficiency. The paper finally discusses findings on theoretical contributions, implications for practitioners, and limitations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Participants have the opportunity to enter into agreements with their neighboring participants to cooperate in network game. At this point, the game relationship between the participants constitutes a network structure, and can be represented by an undirected graph. Participants can cooperate between their neighboring participants according to the network structure and distribute surplus income between two participants through bargaining. Based on the bargaining theory and matching theory, this paper studies how to sign agreements to cooperate among participants in the network game environment, and analyzes how to allocate the benefit of surplus income through bargaining, which is called the network bargaining game, and find the form of the basic feasible solution. By limiting the number of agreements that participants can sign, this paper classifies the network bargaining game, and uses the bargaining and matching methods to study the specific forms of reasonable solutions for each type of network bargaining games. The results of this paper show that the cooperation of participants and the distribution of the benefits of cooperation are not only related to the network game itself, but also related to the number of cooperation agreements that participants can sign. The research expands the application of bargaining method for network bargaining game, and provides decision-making references for multilateral cooperation among participants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the hedging error of foreign exchange options. In respect of the typical static and dynamic Delta hedging strategies, under the circumstance of incomplete market, in which hedging process is discontinuous and interest rate parity theory is not established, the hedging error formulas of spot hedging and forward hedging are given, which can be used to measure the risk of actual hedging portfolio more accurately. In the process of studying Delta hedging strategies, this paper presents a forward exchange rate model including the friction coefficient ε. And by analyzing the difference between the spot hedging and forward hedging, a criterion for choosing the optimal hedging method is given. The criterion depends on the friction coefficient ε, so the market maker can choose the optimal risk hedging method only through real-time monitoring of friction coefficient ε, thus improving the hedging efficiency. The specific analytic formula of hedging error and the criterion of optimal hedging method proposed in this paper provide theoretical basis for foreign exchange option hedging and its risk management. The empirical results show that, the expected return difference proposed in this paper is basically consistent with the actual hedging portfolio, which verifies the rationality of the criterion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates international migration for lop talent with three kinds of analysis tools bibliometrics, complex network theory and system identification. First, according to bibliomctcrics, the clear definition of top talents is given, and the method of collection of historical data about the amounts of top talents of each countries is introduced. Moreover, the framework of international migration is studied from algebraic graph theory, matrix theory and complex network theory. And the relationship between complex network and international migration is discussed. Also, the known and unknown parameters of the proposed framework are distinguished. Based on the model, the overall situation of international migration of top talents can be represented quantitatively. In addition, we collect the residing information of top talents, and establish the corresponding database. Furthermore, by employing the least squares method, this paper proposes two approaches to identify the unknown parameters, and the obtained identification results are testified based on statistics theory. Filially, the migration of top talents between some major and typical countries is discussed according to proposed method, and the analytic results and the effectiveness are testified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper ostablishod secondary distribution model of optimization problem, aiming at fchfl minimum logistics eosl under optimal layout of I he workshop, and anl colony-genetic hybrid algorithm is used Lo solve quadratic assignment model. The hybrid algorithm combined Lhe advantages of the anl colony algorithm with the Kinetic algorithm, using the solution of ant colony system as the initial population of the genetic algorithm, overcoming the flaws of converging slowly, falling into the local optimum of the ant colony algorithm and easy to premature convergence of the genetic algorithm, which will achieve the global optimal model. This paper regarded a machine factory workshop as an example, using MATLA1J to solve the results, which shows that: it will save 10.0% logistics fees by using the new layout of genetic ant algorithm than the original program; while it is better and faster to use the hybrid algorithm to solve the shop I.nuni optimization problem than the .nil colony algorithm nv genetic algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the process of enterprise organization and management, effective incentive is one of the most important behavioral driving forces to increase employees1 efforts. When the salary and promotion plan of an enterprise are determined, it is of great significance to study how to further improve the incentive mechanism with the help of information theory. Fti this paper, we study informal ion disclosure policies in all-pay auctions with incomplete information lo characterize employees' equilibrium behaviors and the effects of differenl information disclosure policies on employees' efforts. We obtain that enterprises should choose not to publicly disclose the performance appraisal results in order to fully mobilize employees to work hard, and employees also don't have motivation to tell each other about themselves appraisal results, it ensures the effectiveness of the information disclosure mechanism. According to the conclusion of this paper, we believe that on the basis of the existing iueent ive I hcory. we should further optimize the effective incentive to employees and improve the efficiency and competitiveness of enterprises hum the perspective of information disclosure mechanism design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In view of the ride service markel in which online car-hailing service and taxi service coexist, this paper studies the price regulation strategy 1o ensure the coexistence of the online car-hailing service and the taxi service, considering high-end or low-end online car-hailing service based on different perceived service experience of the online ear-hailing service. The regulation targets are Participation (Target 1) and Fairness (Target 2). respectively. This paper compares the price regulation mechanism with these two targets. The results show that when the pint form provides the high-end service, and taxi service price is at a high level or a low level, it needs to increase the price of online ear-hailing service: otherwise, the target I can be achieved without regulation. However, it needs to raise the price of online car-hailing service to realize target 2 under the condition of a lower taxi price. When the platform provides the low-end service, the optimal price of the online car-hailing service is related to the perceived service level of the two services and the taxi service price. Regardless of the high-end or low end service provided by the platform, the regulation intensity of regulation target I is higher than that of regulation target 2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The existing academic studies always ignored the impact of premature loan default on loan default loss. The main purpose and contribution of this paper is to introduce premature default into the loan insurance pricing model, which corrects the loan insurance pricing error of only considering mature default. Based on the theory of option pricing, this paper obtains the numerical solution of the loan insurance premium of premature default through Monte Carlo simulation. The case studies arid empirical results show three findings. First, when the default risk is relatively high, the loan insurance pricing model of premature default can correct the overestimate issue of the loan insurance pricing model of mature default. Second, the relationship between the loan insurance premiums of premature default and corporate default points is non-linear and inverted U-shaped. Third, the time interval of Monte Carlo simulation will affect the loan insurance pricing level of premature default, which implies the impact of information asymmetry on loan insurance pricing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addressed the issues of optimizing resource allocation in transportation investment planning for financial agencies. Based on the actual business data of a large commercial bank, the paper builds a quantitative model from industry mix and regional difference to measure the effects of environmental index on performance, predict the performance contribution of each subsystem in the transportation industry, and establish a comprehensive planning model for transportation investment, which proposes the new resource allocation strategy based on industry concentration and the regional differentiated development strategy of transportation finance. The conclusion shows that there is a correlation between the external environment and the performance of bank's transportation finance, and the contribution rate of each sub-industry is different. Financial resource should agglomerate in developed areas. Overall planning can improve the traffic bank financial liquidity risk and control the resource supply, which can optimize financial balance sheet. The findings of this paper can provide a decision-making reference for financial agencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using data from Chinese traffic logistics listed companies for the years 2007-2016, this paper empirically examines the driving effect of operating risk and financial risk on the cost reduction of logistics enterprises. The results show that operating risk and financial risk drive logistics enterprises to reduce costs, and the two kinds of risks have an interactive effect on the cost reduction of logistics enterprises. Then, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of operational risk and financial risk on the cost of logistics enterprises under three different ownership structure scenarios, including the nature of ownership, equity restriction and institutional investors holding. The results show that operating risk and financial risk have more significant driving effect on cost reduction in state-owned logistics enterprises compared with non-state-owned logistics enterprises; equity restriction and institutional investors holding have moderating effect on financial risk driving cost reduction in logistics enterprises, that is, the higher the equity restriction and the proportion of institutional investors holding, the more significant the financial risk to reduce the cost of logistics enterprises, but they have no moderating effect on operating risk driving cost reduction in logistics enterprises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the optimal decision and coordination strategy of differential pricing for members and the whole system under the consideration of the fairness concerns of the members of the closed-loop supply chain, and analyzes the influence of fair concerns on the decision-making by comparing the results of fair neutral and fair concerns. The results show that the manufacturer's fairness concern affects the decisions of the closed-loop supply chain members and the whole system, and it's bad for the manufacturer, the retailer and the whole system. The retailer's fair concern behavior is unfavorable to the manufacturer and beneficial to the retailer, which makes the profit of both decrease and increase, but the whole system profit remains the same and the product price, the sales volume is not affected by the retailer's fair concern behavior. When both the manufacturer and retailer have the behavior of fair concerns, it is beneficial to the manufacturer when the level of fair concern of both sides increases gradually, and it is beneficial to the retailer when the level of fair concern of manufacturer decreases, and the degree of fair concern of the retailer increases. At the same time, this paper adopts the revenue-sharing contract to coordinate the closed-loop supply chain when only the manufacturer has fairness concern and only the retailer has fairness concern behavior to achieve Pareto improvement of both parties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the Cobb-Douglas production function, this paper introduced the construction land as the production factor into the resource misallocation model of Hsieh & Klenow. First, the resource misallocation index of the three types of the construction land, such as industry, commercial and residential, was calculated during 2006-2015. In addition, the factor of the resource misallocation index was decomposed to investigate its sources. Finally, the output loss rate which caused by the resource misallocation of the construction land was estimated. The result shows three types of the construction land all had different levels of the resource misallocation during 2006-2015. Industrial and residential land had excessive allocation, while commercial land had insufficient allocation. The low price of the industrial land was the main cause of its excessive allocation. The high price and the low marginal output of the commercial land were the main reasons of its misallocation. The excessively high profit margin was the main reason for the excessive allocation of the residential land. If the resource misallocation of the construction land was eliminated, the economic output would increase by about 30%. Based on the above research, this paper gained some inspiration to correct the misallocation of the construction for consulting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studied the accumulation and occurrence mechanisms of the international capital inflow surge risks. In addition to the existing identification and measurement methods of international capital inflow surges, we adopted the volatility of three macroeconomic indicators (exchange rate, inflation rate and interest rate), which are closely related to surge risks, to construct a more reasonable method to quantitatively define and measure the international capital inflow surge risks. Using the data of 38 emerging markets from 2000 to 2016, this paper empirically studied the affecting factors of the international capital inflow surge risks in these emerging market economies by Logit model, Probit model and Gompit model. The results show that, capital inflow surges do not necessarily lead to risks by itself, it will result in risks only when it brings fragility to a country's macroeconomic development and financial stability. Global push factors, domestic pull factors and contagion factors are all closely related to the capital inflow surge risks: VIX and interest rates in developed economies are important global push factors for the occurrence of capital inflow surge risks, foreign exchange reserves and domestic capital controls are important domestic pull factors, and contagion effect is also significant, to the occurrence of the capital inflow surge risks. Moreover, the shock of financial crisis will lead to change in affecting factors on the capital inflow surge risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

External financing is a key factor affecting the enterprises' green technology innovation. Based on the reference point theory, this paper has analyzed the relationship between external financing and green technology innovation with the fixed-effect threshold model of firm size. It is found out that firm size has significant threshold effects between green innovation and equity financing, debt financing as well as government subsidies. When firm size is below the threshold, the impacts of external financing towards green technology innovation are not significant, while there exists significant boost effect of external financing if firm size rise above threshold. Compared with private enterprises, the quantitative value of threshold is higher in state-owned enterprises, but the positive effects would be more intense if the firm size is within threshold. This paper can enrich the research of sci-tech finance, and can provide practical basis for manufacturing enterprises' innovative financing and green development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In view of the fact that the farmer faces the problem of difficult choice of agricultural joining mode, this paper investigates an agricultural products supply chain consisting of an agribusiness firm and a farmer for the production and supply of agricultural products by taking into account the uncertainty of market price and market demand. This paper also compares and analyzes the optimal decision-making behavior of farmers in the two agricultural joining modes of "protection price" and "land dividends". The study found that when the market size is large, farmers should choose "land dividends" mode; When the market size is small, the selection of farmers' agricultural joining mode is related to the uncertainty of market demand and the factors such as the contract price, the basic salary and the proportion of land dividend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currency mismatch has drawn attention of the scholars in the recent 20 years. Scholars have proposed lots of empirical measures of currency mismatch of bank that only focus on stock currency mismatch, which leads to some limitations in the conclusion. Based on this fact, this paper comes up with a new indicator of flow currency mismatch, which can be used to analyzing the cause of currency mismatch of bank deeply and dynamically. Then this paper gives an empirical analysis of the relationship between the currency mismatch and some economic variables using ADL model. The study shows that the proper depreciation of domestic currencies, appropriately expanding imports to reduce the trade surplus can effectively reduce the currency mismatch in China from the perspective of stock and the promotion of RMB internationalization can effectively reduce the currency mismatch in China from the perspective of flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To address the uncertainty of surgery duration, this paper investigates surgery planning scheduling problem with multiple servers, which proposes chance constraints of operating rooms overtime to guarantee the surgery durations of patients is no more than the time limit of operating rooms with a high probability. A stochastic chance-constrained program is proposed to determine which operating rooms to operate, and surgeries to operating rooms allocation. Based on a finite support set of the surgery duration, this paper introduces 0-1 variables to formulate the chance constraints, and derives 0-1 integer linear program counterpart. To improve the efficiency of the model, this paper presents two classes of valid inequalities and uses the longest path algorithm to separate the second class of valid inequalities, which are implemented in a branch-and-cut framework. Computational experiments based on real-life data from hospital in Beijing are conducted to verify the algorithm performance and determine the optimal planning scheme, so as to take full utilization of healthcare resources, i.e. operating rooms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The direct economical losses and the tolls of earthquakes are main impacts of earthquake insurance. This paper collected the loss data of earthquake during the years 1950-2015 in China and modeled the direct economical losses and the tolls of earthquake using Copula-mixed distribution model. First, the truncated Gumble distribution and generalized Pareto distribution are mixed to fit the direct economical losses, and the truncated negative binominal distribution and generalized Pareto distribution are mixed to fit the tolls of earthquake. Second, copulas are used to model the dependence between the direct economical losses and the tolls of earthquake. Finally, Monte Carlo simulation method is used to calculate VaR and ES. The models proposed in the paper may be applied to establish earthquake insurance system in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the location problem of battery charging and swapping facilities based on electric vehicle under battery charging mode and swapping mode. Firstly, this study builds a path planning and vehicle scheduling model without charging or battery swapping and location models with the objective of minimizing the sum of electricity cost, fixed cost, opportunity cost, and penalty cost under both charging mode and battery swapping mode. Then an improved genetic algorithm is developed to solve the path planning model and the location models of charging or swapping facilities. Finally, this paper compares and analyzes the location decision of charging or swapping facilities and the relevant distribution cost under charging mode and battery swapping mode. Results of this study show that when there is no delay caused by the charging in distribution, the delivery cost under the charging mode is lower; but when there are delays caused by the charging, improving charging speed or using battery swapping mode can lower the delivery cost. In addition, the service cost of public charging stations will significantly affect the decision-making of logistics companies on whether to build their own charging facilities or use public charging stations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-quality earnings is the cornerstone of the healthy and sustainable development of the company and the financial crisis is a comprehensive performance of financial quality. Based on the theory of harmony, this paper analyzes the mechanism of financial crisis from the aspects of earnings quality and the balance of its each dimension and establishes the financial crisis' evaluation index system based on earnings quality pyramid. Considering the mutual influence between the evaluation indicators and the attribute value transfer of the constant weight comprehensive model, this paper establishes the decision-making and trial evaluation based analytic network process (DANP) double layer penalty variable weight time series financial early-warning model to judge the financial condition. Through the empirical data of listed companies, the critical interval of the financial early warning comprehensive value is [0.6494, 0.6547]. Its prediction accuracy rate reaches 91.53%. The smaller the value, the greater the likelihood of the financial crisis. It has an incremental contribution to the study of the mechanism of financial crisis in theory and it helps companies supervise their financial situation in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The deal structure of loan guarantee market refers to the distribution patterns of participants' behaviors, which depends on the implementation of guarantee contracts signed by the guarantor, creditor and debtor. While risk-free rate is a policy tool to regulate and control financial market, researches have not systematically examined the mechanism and effect of risk-free rate on deal structure of loan guarantee market. This paper develops a guarantee equilibrium model based on guarantor's capital structure, and finds that the change of risk-free rate will affect the deal structure of loan guarantee market. The model developed here suggests that as risk-free rate increases, the guarantor with high solvency probability (high quality guarantor) will increase their pricing, which will squeeze the benefit that debtor gained from purchasing guarantee; however, there is no impact on the guarantor with low solvency probability (low quality guarantor). As a result, high quality guarantors will exit from the market, and the reduction of high quality guarantors will thus increase the risk of the whole guarantee market. The validity of the results in this paper is well supported by the data of Chinese listed companies in 2007 2016, and therefore provides both theoretical and practical evidence to prevent the formation and evolution of risk in Chinese loan guarantee market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the efficient frontier and capital market model of portfolio theory, this paper calculates the operational efficiency of commercial banks' credit business based on the non-performing loan ratio and NIM (net interest margin) of commercial banks; Using the loss of non-performing loan ratio on commercial banks' credit business income by using panel data of 16 listed commercial banks in China from 2011 to 2016. Through the comparison of the above results, we find that the operational efficiency of commercial banks' credit business based on portfolio theory proposed in this paper can better reveal the relationship between risk and return of commercial banks' credit business. In the future, commercial banks should consider and use portfolio theory in loan business. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the traditional two-sided market theory and the characteristics of P2P lending platforms, this paper proposes a two-stage game model to analyse different business models, especially profit models of P2P lending platforms. With the purpose of showing the continuous operating condition and developing direction of P2P lending platforms under the financial environment in China, this paper takes China's new policies about P2P into consideration, takes account of impact of policy and finds the following results: 1) under the scenario in which P2P platform charges "subscription fee + transaction fee" or "subscription fee only", network externalities reduces the P2P platforms' profit when lenders are multihoming; 2) adopting the profit model of "subscription fee + transaction fee" makes a higher profit than the profit model of "subscription fee only"; 3) the prohibition in existing policies of P2P lending platforms on principal guaranteed model will protect the interests of lenders. Finally, this paper puts forward policy suggestions of the P2P lending platforms in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The existing interval number grey target decision-making model ignores the important influence of interval distribution and the correlation between the indicators in scheme evaluation. And there are some fuzzy errors when setting the weight of indicators. In order to solve the above problems, this paper proposes an interval number grey target decision-making model based on multi-dimensional association sampling, taking into account the multi-dimensional joint probability density distribution of index space and its boundary, and weakens the impact of extreme index value on the decision-making results. In addition, this paper determines the weight of index by using set-valued statistical method, expanding the weight of grey target model from the real number sequence to the interval number sequence, and reducing the fuzzy error in the experts' judgment process. This improved model is applied to Pankon reservoir for the decision-making of water level operating in flood season. Compared with traditional models, the improved model fully considers the characteristics of interval data and the correlation between the indicators. Meanwhile, the setting of interval number weight is more scientific and reasonable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As to the problem of time series prediction for small sample data with time delays, the dynamic changes of system time delays should be considered and expressed in the process of modeling. This paper extends the GM(1, 1/τi) model to a more applicable GM(1, 1/τi) model, which contains a time-varying delay function to describe the possible time-varying delays in series. An efficient algorithm for the model parameter estimation is given, together with the time response formula of GM(1, 1/τi) model. Parameters of the time-varying delay function used in the model algorithm are optimized by the gray correlation degree theory. The method designed in this paper improves the fitting degree of the GM(l, L\N) model to the analyzed sequence. It also helps to analyze the development trend of system based on the mathematical properties of time-varying delay functions. Finally, the model is applied to forecast the cargo throughput of coastal ports in Fujian province, and the results are compared with those based on GM(1,1) and GM(1, 1/τ). Results show that the GM(1, 1/τi) model has higher modeling precision when the raw data contains complex time-varying delays and this will enlarge the class of existing grey series prediction models with time delays. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The collaborative distribution problem is a typical combined optimization cooperative game problem, and is named the collaborative vehicle routing problem. One of its core problems is to determine a fair and reasonable cost sharing plan. Among them, the nucleolus solution is a recognized scientific allocation plan in the field of cost sharing because of its uniqueness and fairness. This paper proposes a method to approximate the nucleolus solution of collaborative distribution problem. Firstly, the paper proves the cost allocation of collaborative vehicle routing problem will theoretically be a convex game problem when the location of the customer is evenly distributed. Based on the theory that the nucleolus solution will be equivalent to the prekernel solution in convex game problems, an approximate iterative algorithm (AIA) is proposed to get the nucleolus solution of convex game problems. The complexity of AIA is O(n42n), and then the paper proposes two effective speed-up strategies of AIA, which reduce the complexity of AIA to polynomial level. Finally, by solving the cooperative distribution examples, it is verified that the AIA algorithm in this paper can accurately solve the nucleolus solution of the collaborative distribution cost allocation problem. The proposed solution can effectively reduce the time-consuming of calculation. And the average deviation between the final result of AIA and the actual nucleolus solution is less than 0.02%. More importantly, AIA can be used to get the nucleolus solution in all convex games. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New products usually face greater market uncertainty. How to ensure the matching between product supply and market demand is particularly important for enterprises. Obtaining demand information in advance is helpful to achieve this goal. Considering the loss aversion of strategic consumers, this paper studies retailers' advance selling and return policies. Based on the behavioral characteristics of strategic and myopic consumers, a two-stage model of pre-sale and normal sales is constructed. This paper makes a comparative study on the two advance selling strategies of permitted return and non-permitted return. By constructing the profit model of retailers under the two strategies, the optimal pre-sale price and the optimal return price are obtained, and the corresponding range of return price is given. It is found that the retailer has to lower price for pre-sale products because of loss aversion among strategic consumers. When the return price after the end of the presale period is not higher than a specific value, the implementation of the return strategy can enable the retailer to obtain a better return, and there is an optimal return price. It makes the expected profit of the retailer reach the maximum under the return mode. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the demand forecast information sharing strategy and game structure decision in online platform selling model. In this paper, we consider an online platform-selling model consisting of an e-retailer, an e-commerce platform and a third-party logistics. There are two important assumptions: 1) the e-retailer owns the private demand forecast information and can choose to share with the e-platform, the 3PL, or both; 2) the e-commerce platform could determine the game structure. Based on these, we investigate the e-retailer's optimal information sharing strategies under different game structures and then analyze the e-platform's optimal game structure selections under different information sharing strategies. Our results show that, 1) when the service efficiency of the e-commerce platform is weak, the equilibrium strategy of e-retailer is not sharing the information, and that of e-commerce platform is making decisions before 3PL. 2) When the service efficiency of the e-commerce platform is strong, or when the service efficiency of the e-commerce platform is moderate and the accuracy of the demand forecast is high, the equilibrium strategy of e-retailer is sharing the information with the e-commerce platform, and that of e-commerce platform is making decisions after 3PL. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates an approach to record incremental grouping based on transferred similarity for large data sets. The paper first analyzes how to gradually calculate similarity between records, then proposes how to construct reference group based on sorting key, how to incrementally update reference group based on transferred similarity, and how to perform incremental updates in reference group based on union-find, finally proves the feasibility and efficiency of the proposed method through experiments. Experimental results show that the proposed method can improve grouping quality and improve grouping efficiency more than traditional methods. There is no detailed analysis of the data quality problem existing in the attribute value itself, and there is no design of the sorting key generation algorithm. The proposed method can not only help solve the problem of missing record pairs in data cleaning, information integration and management, but also has advantages such as better scalability, reusability, and freedom from the domain, because it only designs algorithms from the perspective of pure data processing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Study on the multi-state reliability modeling, analysis and assessment, which plays an important role in controlling time-varying process reasonably and programming supportability activity effectively for the big complex equipment system. In this paper, a universal method adopted to analyze and assess the accumulative characteristic of reliability is given with respect to the multi-state complex equipment systems under time-varying demand condition. Meanwhile, the logic reward matrix system is established and the accumulative logic reward is calculated during work period. Research shows that method adopted in this paper has better robustness, which can meet different constraint condition and assessment request. And that also has better adaptability and routinization, which can be used to assess any multi-state systems with high state dimension uniting with the universal generating function (UGF) technology and can easily be realized by the computer programming considering the matrix vector model. Moreover, the result can be applied to analyze and assess multi-state system reliability in other fields, such as energy industry, information industry and machinery industry, and has important directive to equipment support system construction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Congestion pricing has been considered as one of effective means for mitigating urban traffic congestion. In this paper, we propose a link-based congestion pricing scheme which utilizes the origin-destination information of vehicles in traffic networks. We have roundly compared this scheme—the minimum total revenue pricing based on link-differentiated (MTRP-LD)—with other three ones fully reported in literature, namely the marginal social cost pricing (MSCP), the minimum total revenue pricing based on link (MTRP-L) and the minimum total revenue pricing based on path (MTRP-P). It is proved that all these four schemes can realize the flow pattern of system optimum, and that the total revenue is only related to the traffic demand and the minimum path cost when tolled user equilibrium is achieved. MSCP generates the highest toll revenue, then MTRP-L, MTRP-LD and MTRP-P in order. MSCP and MTRP-L can be implemented in an anonymous way, while MTRP-P requires the complete path information of vehicles. MTRP-LD proposed in this paper which can reduce the total toll revenue greatly like MTRP-P, is link-based for implementation but needs all vehicles' origin-destination information. Numerical results obtained from a multiple origin-destination network verify our analytical results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to construct a more reasonable and optimal contract model, this paper assumes that the principal is time-inconsistent preferences and sophisticated in the classical continuous-time agency model, where the hyperbolic-discounting functions characterize time-inconsistent preferences. This paper studies the effect of the principal's time inconsistency on her value function and optimal payoff boundary. Compared with the classical continuous-time agency model, the extended model shows that the sophisticated principal's value function and optimal payoff boundary decrease as the degree of time-inconsistency exaggerates. Namely, to remedy the uncertain risk of the time-inconsistent preference, the time-inconsistent principal tends to pay out lower compensations earlier and more frequently than a time-consistent peer, so that the agent chooses to truthfully report cash flows truthfully earlier. It indicates that the principal's time-inconsistent preferences have a great impact on the optimal contract. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

本文以2007-201 6年我国非金融类国有A 股上市公司为样本，研究了混合所有制对国有 企业研发投入的影响. 研究发现：混合所有制促进了国有企业研发投入，即股东股份比例多样化能 够显著地提升国有企业研发投入.进一步研究发现，与集体股东和外资股东相比，私有股东更能提 高国有企业研发投入；与地方国企相比，混合所有制对中央国企研发投入的促进作用更为显著；此 外，混合所有制能够提升国有企业管理层薪酬与业绩敏感性，改善国有企业公司治理.本文的研究 发现为评价混合所有制、推动和深化国有企业改革提供了政策依据，也为推动国有企业研发投入提 供了对策建议. Based on the data of Chinese non-financial A-share state-owned listed companies from 2007 to 2016, this paper conducts theoretical analysis and empirical test of the impact of mixed ownership on R&D investment of state-owned enterprises. The empirical results show that mixed ownership promotes the stateowned enterprises R&D investment. Moreover, private enterprises can promote the R&D investment of state-owned enterprises, but enterprises under collective ownership and foreign-funded enterprises cannot promote the R&D investment of state-owned enterprises. This paper also examines the differences in the influence of mixed ownership in central state-owned enterprises and local state-owned enterprises on enterprise R&D investment, the results show that mixed ownership has a more significant effect on the R&D investment of central state-owned enterprises. In addition, this paper finds that mixed ownership can enhance the executive pay-for-performance sensitivity of state-owned enterprises, and improve the corporate governance of state-owned enterprises. The research findings of this paper provide policy basis for evaluating the mixed ownership, promoting and deepening the reform of state-owned enterprises, and also provide countermeasures and suggestions for promoting the R&D investment of state-owned enterprises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, the parameter setting of the Spring Festival model mainly depends on subjective judgement for researchers. To solve the problem, firstly, the paper introduces factor-adjusted general process on Spring Festival and relevant details for model specification and model inspection. On this basis, the paper puts forward new ideas on selecting automatically Spring Festival model with optimal parameters based on "loop through" and sequential test method. Taking Spring Festival model's optimal effective phase length recognition of total retail sales of social consumer goods as an example, we examine its feasibility and validity. The empirical results show that the sequential test method based on seasonal peaks, outliers, Q statistics, AICC values, and BIC values can effectively identify the optimal infulence period length of the Spring Festival model, which can efficiently improve seasonal adjustment performance on Spring Festival model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The weapon-target assignment (WTA) problem is intuitively non-linear. In this paper the WTA problem is modelled as an integer linear program (ILP) without lose the problem's exact optimality, and it is proposed that there exists an upper bound of the number of attacking weapons for a specific target (the attack-number bound) providing the solution is optimal. By limiting the attack-number bound, the dimension of the ILP model of the WTA problem can be drastically decreased, and this enables the ILP of the WTA problem can be solved in short time. Computational experiments have been done on data provided by literature published in recent years, and the results show that the method proposed by this paper has clear advances over the traditional methods in both better optimality and faster computational speed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Supported by the rainfall remote sensing products with high spatiotemporal resolution, it is possible to analyze and track the fine structure and dynamic behavior of rainstorm events. It is a great challenge to organize and store the rainstorm events because of the characteristics of large amount of data and complex data organization structure. Based on the evolution process of the rainstorm event, this paper designs a representation model of graph structure based on vertex-boundary, and builds a graph database based on Neo4j to achieve the organization and storage of the rainstorm events. The rainstorm events object is described by the vertex in the graph structure, and the state information of rainstorm events such as spatial location and rainfall data are recorded as vertex's attributes. Using directed edge to correlate rainstorm vertexes, the relationship, speed change and direction of rainstorm states are recorded as directed edge's attributes. Finally, the paper designs the graph-based rainstorm events organization model based on the time series model and spatial topological relationship. The rainstorm vector dataset is stored based on R-Tree spatial index that is the Neo4j graph storage method, and the rainstorm events database is constructed. The comparative analysis results of the rainstorm events library based on Neo4j and Oracle spatial show that the Neo4j rainstorm events library has advantages in data storage and spatiotemporal query performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a major technological breakthrough in the past decade, cloud (computing) service has been boomingly adopted among the industries. However, for the most critical issue of the cloud computing commercialization-pricing, there is still lack of systematic and profound discussion in the academic world. Based on the traditional "subscription pricing" and "pay-per-use pricing", this paper considered two important factors of the user heterogeneity and the firm's pricing costs to construct a mixed pricing model for the first time. The model analysis found that:① During the early development of the market (while the user fitness of groups towards cloud services is very low), cloud service enterprises should use the "subscription pricing" and combine with low-price strategy to cultivate user habits; As the market matures (while the user fitness increases and transaction cost reduces), "pay-per-use pricing" should be introduced, thus to offer the mixed pricing model. ② In the mixed pricing mechanism, if the user fitness rises (or transaction cost declines), users tend to choose "subscription pricing" rather than "pay-per-use pricing", then cloud services enterprises will get more profits. ③ Changes in the user fitness and transaction cost will accordingly affect the provider's profits, consumer surplus and social welfare, but the impact of the two parameters are not the same. This paper provides theoretical guidance for cloud service providers to make proper price strategies in business practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Technological progress and uncertainty of demand are important factors of problems of capacity planning in manufacturing. The majority of previous studies did only focus on technological breakthroughs rather than technical upgrades, two different ways of the technological progress, and paid more attention on capacity expansion while less attention on replacement. This paper presents for the first time an integrated capacity planning model that takes into account both technological breakthroughs and upgrades for equipment procurement and replacement. Under stochastic demand and technological progress, we use scenario-tree method describe uncertainty of two factors above, and propose an integrated model of multi-period capacity planning problem with the objective of minimum expected total cost of capacity expansion, replacement and maintenance. Faced with the nonlinear mixed integer programming model established by the problem above, the paper designs a heuristic solution method based on genetic algorithm (GA) framework for this NP complete problem, which converts the problem into an equivalent problem by performing certain translations. The equivalent problem can be solved by GA and classic optimization. In the process of population initialization, only expansion decision variables are chosen as the evolutionary population in GA, and then we use the classical optimization method to accurately solve the optimal capacity replacement problem for each individual, and use the total cost of expansion and replacement as the individual fitness for individual evaluation and population evolution. A numerical experiment illustrates that the technological upgrades can effectively reduce the cost of capacity planning under different demand scenarios, and the heuristic algorithm proposed in this paper has good convergence stability and performance stability for solving such planning problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cost saving percentage is important to enterprises that make decision to participate in an online logistics distribution alliance. However, computing the information needs to optimize 2N-1 (N is the number of enterprise) complexity NP-hard problems being similar to multi-depot vehicle routing problem, and to allows very limited computation time. In this paper, a fast method is proposed to estimate the result of collaborative vehicle routing problem. Firstly, the feasibility of adopting the estimation method in allocating cost is proved. Secondly, based on Beardwood's research conclusions the method for estimating distribution distance of collaborative vehicle routing problem is developed, according to the number of customers, demand quantity and position of customers and depots of all enterprises in alliance. At last, some benchmark instances are designed based on actual investigation data. Then the method proposed in this paper and an three-phase optimization algorithm CSV (Cluster+Savings+Variable Neighborhood Search) used to solve the instances. The results demonstrate that the computational time of the estimation method is almost negligible compared with the CSV, which could meet the requirement of on-line real-time calculation, and the cost savings percentage deviation is within 10% for all instances. What's more, the bigger the problem, the smaller the deviation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When traditional Bayesian network (BN) with three-layer nodes is applied to system reliability analysis, the parameter number of each node in the B N will increase exponentially, which eventually cause the problem of combinational explosion. To solve the explosion problem, a method for converting complicated compound system (a system consisting of complicated serial and parallel structure) into its equivalent chain-like B N is proposed. Firstly, by introducing a new kind of node Node s/Node f, an information flow model for characterizing the logics of parallel/series system is built; Furthermore, the theory for transforming parallel/series system into its equivalent chain-like B N is depicted by assigning conditional probability parameters to the node of the defined information flow model, which describes the logic meaning of parallel/series system quantitatively; Moreover, the method for converting typical serial-parallel system and parallel-serial system into their equivalent chain-like B N by introducing the concept of super-block is analyzed, separately; And then, by combining the converting principle and the correlation matrix of system reliability block diagram (RBD), a complete algorithm (Generate-Chain- BN) for transforming a complicated compound system into its equivalent chain-like B N is designed in the paper; Eventually, both the equivalent three-layer nodes B N and chain-like B N of the R B D of a complicated compound system are built, computed and compared; Both the theory and the case show that the chain-like BN built in the paper can avoid the combinational explosion problem of the traditional three-layer ntodes BN by lowering the time and space complexity of the traditional three-layer nodes B N from exponent to linearity, which exhibits a great potential of the new chain-like B N in the field of system reliability analysis in place of three-layer nodes BN. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The length of the gap is the key to realize the function of the explosive gap null-gate. Too long or too short of the gap can cause the gap null gate failure. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the interval of the gap, that is, the reliability window, which enables the gap null-gate function to be successfully realized. With the assumptions that both the density of the explosive and the cross-sectional area of the explosive channel were constants, we established the joint distribution model by regarding the endpoints of the reliability window as two random variables. Based on the joint Logistic distribution model, the paper analyzed the correlation between the both random variables with the score statistic test and developed the method for estimating the reliability window. At the end of the paper, based on the experimental data, we verified that there is no significant difference between the correlation coefficient and 0, and presented the estimation result of the reliability window. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]