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The mobilization potential of emergency materials plays an important role for the response to emergency materials under emergencies in China. This paper measures the emergency materials mobilization potential by the final product of the emergency materials after the conversion of raw materials, and establishes the emergency materials mobilization potential evaluation model using system dynamics through analyzing the internal feedback relationship of each sub-module that constitutes the emergency materials mobilization potential. Taking China's petroleum industry chain as the actual background, and the mobilization potential of refined oil as an example, using the idea of "scenario-response", this paper expands the idea of assessing the state value of mobilization potential, quantitatively assesses mobilization potential of refined oil from the aspects of total amount, a certain time point and a certain period of time. The results show that when the demand is at a low level, the reserves of crude oil and refined oil have the greatest contribution to the refined oil mobilization potential. With the increase of demand, the contribution of the company's supernormal production is gradually increasing. In addition, the four factors of the actual production capacity of emergency materials, the amount of crude oil or refined oil reserves and crude oil conversion coefficient have the greatest impact on the refined oil mobilization potential, so it should focus on improving the actual production capacity of emergency materials, the amount of raw materials or final product reserves and the productive efficiency of emergency materials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currency mismatch has drawn attention of the scholars in the recent 20 years. Scholars have proposed lots of empirical measures of currency mismatch of bank that only focus on stock currency mismatch, which leads to some limitations in the conclusion. Based on this fact, this paper comes up with a new indicator of flow currency mismatch, which can be used to analyzing the cause of currency mismatch of bank deeply and dynamically. Then this paper gives an empirical analysis of the relationship between the currency mismatch and some economic variables using ADL model. The study shows that the proper depreciation of domestic currencies, appropriately expanding imports to reduce the trade surplus can effectively reduce the currency mismatch in China from the perspective of stock and the promotion of RMB internationalization can effectively reduce the currency mismatch in China from the perspective of flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The direct economical losses and the tolls of earthquakes are main impacts of earthquake insurance. This paper collected the loss data of earthquake during the years 1950-2015 in China and modeled the direct economical losses and the tolls of earthquake using Copula-mixed distribution model. First, the truncated Gumble distribution and generalized Pareto distribution are mixed to fit the direct economical losses, and the truncated negative binominal distribution and generalized Pareto distribution are mixed to fit the tolls of earthquake. Second, copulas are used to model the dependence between the direct economical losses and the tolls of earthquake. Finally, Monte Carlo simulation method is used to calculate VaR and ES. The models proposed in the paper may be applied to establish earthquake insurance system in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the efficient frontier and capital market model of portfolio theory, this paper calculates the operational efficiency of commercial banks' credit business based on the non-performing loan ratio and NIM (net interest margin) of commercial banks; Using the loss of non-performing loan ratio on commercial banks' credit business income by using panel data of 16 listed commercial banks in China from 2011 to 2016. Through the comparison of the above results, we find that the operational efficiency of commercial banks' credit business based on portfolio theory proposed in this paper can better reveal the relationship between risk and return of commercial banks' credit business. In the future, commercial banks should consider and use portfolio theory in loan business. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the traditional two-sided market theory and the characteristics of P2P lending platforms, this paper proposes a two-stage game model to analyse different business models, especially profit models of P2P lending platforms. With the purpose of showing the continuous operating condition and developing direction of P2P lending platforms under the financial environment in China, this paper takes China's new policies about P2P into consideration, takes account of impact of policy and finds the following results: 1) under the scenario in which P2P platform charges "subscription fee + transaction fee" or "subscription fee only", network externalities reduces the P2P platforms' profit when lenders are multihoming; 2) adopting the profit model of "subscription fee + transaction fee" makes a higher profit than the profit model of "subscription fee only"; 3) the prohibition in existing policies of P2P lending platforms on principal guaranteed model will protect the interests of lenders. Finally, this paper puts forward policy suggestions of the P2P lending platforms in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To develop an outstanding Renminbi exchange rate forecasting model based on the background of Renminbi internationalization and the increased two-way volatility becomes much more important. The forecasting ability of a parameter model depends not only on whether it is correctly specified, but also on one hand the efficiency of whether it can detect the structure changes and using the effective observations to estimate the parameters, and on the other hand on the ability of selecting the proper covariates that can be used in forecasting. In order to solve these required problems, this paper has developed the penalized adaptive method which can adaptively select the covariates and detect the structure changes. The developed model can outperform the local adaptive method and other economic fundamental methods in exchange rate predictions. In the USD against RMB exchange rate regime, we find out that the newly developed methods can manage of significantly increasing the forecasting accuracy compared with the second-best model. After the 811-exchange-rate-reform, the economic fundamentals have been significantly improved in determining the exchange rate expectation. Moreover, after the 811-exchange-rate-reform, the exchange rate of USD against RMB itself does not decide alone by the USD. It is also decided heavily by the other fundermental differences between China and the other developed countries such as UK, Euro Zone and Japan. The manageable floating exchange rate system is also crucial in preventing the exchange rate risk in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economics literature contains many theoretical analyses of imitation and differentiation strategies but relatively few empirical studies of these topics due to the limitation of data and methods. This paper conducts empirical research on competitive behavior among three dominant Chinese satellite TVs. It indicates that: 1) Program selection decisions of dominant satellite TVs primarily depend on their previous decision, showing decision inertia, which is verified by the fact that shock of each satellite TV's previous decisions best explains its current decision. Meanwhile, there is strategic dynamic interaction between each other, in the form of a mixed strategy with both imitation and differentiation. 2) Degree of imitation depends on satellite TVs' competitive positions. Leaders tend to differentiate, while pursuers incline to imitate. 3) Satellite TVs' decision patterns show heterogeneity related to program types. A satellite TV's decisions on its representative and advantageous programs are less affected by its competitors, while decisions on other programs suffer greater impacts. And heterogeneity is more obvious in pursuers. Impacts of market structure and degree of imitation on program ratings are further studied. Results indicate that: 1) Competitive pressure has negative crowd-out effect on leaders' program ratings, while it has positive spillover effect on pursuers. This finding is consistent with the fact that rating gap between first-class dominant satellite TVs and second-class dominant ones has narrowed. 2) Imitation leads to higher program ratings, indicating possible presence of herd behavior among Chinese audience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the Ministry of Environmental Protection of China began testing the PM2.5 index in 2013, the impact of air quality on the national economy has received increasing attention. The haze has spread to all parts of the country. Does it affect real estate prices? This paper uses spatial econometric model to empirically examine the impact of haze on urban house prices, and make heterogeneity analysis at different regions and different periods, based on the data of 280 prefecture-level cities in China from 2002 to 2016. The main conclusions include: The spatial aggregation effect of house price and PM2.5 concentration distribution across the country. From a national perspective, PM2.5 concentration will have a negative effect on house prices. For every 1 unit increase in PM2.5 concentration, house prices fell by 0.37%. Air quality has an impact on house prices at different time periods, but when macroeconomic regulation is strengthened, the effect of air quality will be weakened. From a regional perspective, the difference in economic development level will affect the effect of air quality on house prices. The more economically developed regions, the stronger the impact of air quality on house prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the combination of input-output model and social network analysis methods, in this paper, we decompose the R&D investment model driven by different types of demands in China's manufacturing, and discuss the intermediary role of network characteristics in terms of the relationship between the R&D investment and the innovation output. The results show that the R&D input of technology-intensive manufacturing industry is driven by both domestic final demand and intermediate demand, while the R&D input structure of capital-intensive manufacturing industry is dominated by intermediate demand. The R&D investments source from different types of demands significantly promote China's manufacturing innovation output, and the contributions from high to low are foreign final demands, domestic final demands and intermediate demands. Therefore, the final demand is the main force to drive R&D input and then achieve innovation output. As for R&D promoting the innovation output, production network characteristic variables exert significant intermediary effects. The centrality degree and various R&D investments mutually promote the growth of the innovation output. The upstream degree limits the contribution of R&D input driven by intermediate demand to innovation output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses Baker et al. (2016) to construct China's economic policy uncertainty index (EPU) and China's economic policy uncertainty index based on Chinese newspaper text keyword search (CEPU). Using monthly import data of about 5000 kinds of products in China from January 2010 to April 2016, we estimate the impact of EPU and CEPU on these products' import and find that economic policy uncertainty has different effects on imports of different products, both negative and positive. Further, we use BEC classification, differentiated products and homogeneous products, the number and concentration of countries in global trade, and the elasticity of import demand to characterize the heterogeneity of products and explain the differences in the impact of economic uncertainty on different products. We find that when the uncertainties of China's economic policy increase, capital goods and transport equipment are more negatively affected by imports than intermediate inputs and differentiated products are homogeneous products; the smaller the elasticity of demand substitution, the more countries imported globally, the lower the concentration of global importing countries, and the higher the concentration of global exporting countries, the negative reaction of product imports the bigger. In addition, we compare the performance of EPU and CEPU indices. CEPU index is more reasonable than the EPU index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Structural changes often occur in air passengers due to some external factors such as airport expansion, policy orientation and economic development; model uncertainty is a common long-standing issue in forecasting. To address these issues, a novel time-varying Jackknife model averaging method (TVJMA) (Sun et al, 2020, 2012) is employed to predict air passengers of the Top 5 airports in China. Based on nonparametric estimation, the optimal time-varying weights for various candidate models with time-varying parameters in candidate models are obtained by minimizing the local Jackknife criterion at every time point t. TVJMA method allows the weights and parameters to change over time. Empirical results show that the TVJMA method used in this paper is significantly superior to other benchmark models, including Hansen and Racine's (2012) Jackknife model averaging method (JMA), autoregression model (AR), autoregression integrated moving average model (ARIMA), seasonal autoregression integrated moving average model (SARIMA), and time-varying parameter model (TVP). Furthermore, the predictive effect of TVJMA is robust to different test sets and prediction steps. Overall, TVJMA method effectively reduces the predictive risk caused by structural changes and model uncertainty, and thus produces accurate and stable forecasts of air passengers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The traditional evaluation methods of earthquake disaster loss does not have a unified index to make a comprehensive assessment of the loss of earthquake disaster, which will cause some difficulties in the application. In order to comprehensively evaluate the loss of earthquake disaster and carry out multiple models comparison research, this paper presents multi-model methods for evaluating the loss of earthquake disaster based on lifeyears. Through the improvement of the lifeyears loss theory and the analysis of the value of the method parameters, the calculation scheme was determined. A comparative study was conducted on the lifeyears loss of earthquake in China grouped by years and regions. The relationship between the total lifeyears loss and its influence factors, such as the affected population, the epicentral intensity, the earthquake magnitude and recovery time was studied. The results showed that four influencing factors were all positively correlated with the total lifeyears loss. The affected population has the greatest correlation and the correlation of the other three factors is decreasing in turn. The linear regression model, the neural network quantile regression model and the nonlinear model of gene expression programming were established on the basis of the analysis of the influencing factors and the comparative analysis was carried out. Earthquake disaster loss was evaluated and predicted by using the evaluation model, which reduced data dependence and simplified the assessment process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses the mixture innovation time-varying parameter vector autoregressive models with stochastic volatility model (MI-TVP-SV-VAR) to construct the China financial status index (MFCI) to measure China's financial situation. Based on the multifractal asymmetric detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-ADCCA) algorithm, the MFCI is used to predict the development of the real economy. In the empirical study, the research sample selects the monthly data of China from 2000 to 2017. The empirical results show that the weights of various financial status variables have flexible time-varying, and the stock price, bond price and real estate price have greater weight in MFCI. During the sample period, MFCI is able to maintain a consistency trend with the development of the real economy (EC) and is ahead of changes in the real economy. The asymmetric correlation test based on MF-ADCCA algorithm shows that MFCI has a persistent cross-correlation with EC. The decline of MFCI will lead to the decline of EC, and the rise of MFCI will lead to the rise of EC. The cross-effect of MFCI on EC changes the asymmetric influence of the individual sequence itself, indicating that the impact of China's financial situation on the development of the real economy exists, and MFCI has a predictive effect on the development of the real economy. The intertemporal correlation test shows that the predictive effect of MFCI on the real economy is more effective within 6 months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key problem in prediction theory is to improve adaptiveness to data characteristics. This paper proposed a novel method called buffered adaptive grey rolling model or BARGM model, which combines the buffer operator and grey rolling model. First, the new model decomposes original sequence into continuous data slices, and uses feedback input to adjust modeling data by buffer operator with variable weight on each data slice, then a extended grey forecasting model is utilized to model the adjusted data slices stepwisely and generate the extrapolation values. With comparison to GM(1. 1). BARGM lias two obvious features: Changing the monotonicity of traditional time response function and strong expansibility. The case study uses the BARGM and benchmark models to analyze China's greenhouse gas emission data, and the results demonstrate that the accuracy of fitting and prediction improve obviously, and prove the new model's effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Local volatility model is widely used in the fields of risk management, options pricing, etc. The model can not only describe the "smile" and the term structure of volatility, but can also ensure the completeness of the market. The core goal of local volatility research is to calculate the implied volatility. In this paper, the implied volatility surfaces arc built with both parametric and non-parametric methods to obtain smoother volatility surfaces. Parametric method can ensure the absence of arbitrage. Meanwhile, a closed form of solving the local volatility model with non-parametric method is proposed, which can eliminate the approximation error. In addition, the pricing of Shanghai 50ETF option in China based on the local volatility model is studied by comparing effects of the models from aspects of in-the-sample, out-of-the sample and hedging pricing errors. The empirical results show that the non-parametric method is better than the parametric method for errors in-the-samplc; the parametric method has better results for out-of-sample and hedging effects. Particularly, both the options pricing and hedging effects of the implied volatility modeling methods are better than nn-modeled method in the aspects that the pricing errors can be decreased by more than half and the mean square error can be reduced by 1~2 orders of magnitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The generally slow growth rates in the aftermath of the global financial crisis have prompted many nations to pursue the political and economic policies that lead the wave of "anti-globalization". To reflect on the phenomenon of "anti-globalization", we need to have a better understanding of the benefits of globalization and its "hidden" costs. In view that there is no literature to explore the impact of export expansion on health theoretically, this paper made the first attempt to examine the relationship between export expansion and health based on China's powerful context. We consider a framework where workers bargain with their employer, and the firm chooses the optimal capital, labor, and materials based on the maximization of profit function. Each worker chooses the optimal effort level by equalizing the marginal benefit of efibrt, determined through bargaining, with the marginal cost of effort. Based on an extended Grossman health demand model, we systematically examine the channels through which export expansion affects health, i.e.. work intensity, wage rate, income inequality, the provision level of public service, and environmental quality. Finally, we give the corresponding policy implications based on our conclusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the impact of urban basic public service differences on the housing market. We focus on the role of urban basic public service in the housing market and the underlining mechanism. We employ the public service data of 29 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2006 to 2014 and use the entropy method to calculate the basic public service index of different cities in each year. By employing panel regression models, we investigate the impact of urban basic public services on housing prices. We find that the impact of medical resources on housing market is very significant. This is especially true for first-tier cities. The concentration of medical resources is an important factor that drives up the housing prices in first-tier cities. The policy implications of this study are that rationally coordinating resources such as medical care and education, and promoting the equalization of regional basic public services will help promote the healthy development of housing market in China and help build a long-term regulation mechanism for the housing market. At the same time, coordinating urban public services and formulating housing control policies should be tailored to local conditions and urban policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, fractal analysis methods are used to study the complexity characteristics of multivariate cross-correlations between the metal futures and spot markets in China. Firstly, the widely used multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) is extended to multivariate case, and the multivariate multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MV-MFDCCA) is proposed. Then, the daily returns series of the futures and spot markets for China's basic metal copper, aluminum and zinc are regarded as two systems, and the multifractal analysis methods including the MV-MFDCCA are used to empirically investigate the multivariate cross-correlation between the two systems from the perspective of system theory. The results show that there are long-range power law cross-correlations and multifractal characteristics within and between the two systems, and the multifractal strengths of autocorrelations and cross-correlations for the spot system and its components are greater than those of the futures system and its corresponding components. In addition, in the situation of large fluctuations, the cross-correlation between the futures and spot systems is mainly influenced by the relationship between the futures copper and spot copper, while in the small fluctuation situation, mainly influenced by the relationship between the futures zinc and spot zinc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Developing scientific and effective air quality early warning system has important scientific and practical significance for protecting people's physical health and promoting social harmony and stability. Therefore, the isolation forest (iForest) algorithm is employed to analyze the outlier data in original air quality index (AQI) data, and then an effective air quality early warning system is developed in this paper. The system is consists of four modules:data preprocessing module, optimization module, forecasting module and correction module, which combines time varying filtering based empirical mode decomposition (TVF-EMD), modified butterfly optimization algorithm (MBOA), outlier robust extreme learning machine (ORELM), and nonlinear correction strategy, and successfully achieves effective early warning for air quality. In order to verify the effectiveness of the developed air quality early warning system, five cities with different air pollution level in China are employed for empirical research. The results show that:1) Compared with empirical mode decomposition (EMD), TVF-EMD can be more effective to reduce the nonlinear and non-stationary features of the original data; 2) The developed MBOA-based error nonlinear correction strategy is superior to other error correction strategies, which can significantly improve the performance of the early warning system; 3) The performance of the developed system is superior to other compared methods, which can provide effective early warning for cities with different air pollution level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to promote the transformation of China's energy consumption and reduce CO2 emissions, this paper first uses the club convergence test method to conduct a detailed empirical study of the differences in the inter-provincial evolution of different types of fossil energy consumption. Then, based on the results of convergence clustering, a hierarchical (group) forecasting method is used to predict short-term CO2 emissions at different levels. The results show that due to the different dependence of economic development on coal consumption, coal consumption of various provinces converges to three levels. Driven by the energy intensity and structural effects, the province's oil and natural gas consumption have generally converged upward. The forecasts indicate that CO2 emissions from fossil fuels will be dominated by coal, which is dominated by the 13 provinces in clubs2. Meanwhile, oil consumption will increase CO2 emissions, natural gas will reduce total emissions, and provincial CO2 emissions and its growth rates will still have large differences. These findings have important implications for the establishment of specific regional energy consumption and emission policies:clubs2's provinces are key areas for controlling coal consumption and reducing CO2 emissions; strictly controlling oil consumption in high-income and heavy-industry provinces will further reduce total CO2 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a kind of capital, intermediate inputs play an important role that cannot be ignored in the process of production. Their coefficient size reflects a country's economic growth mode. Current mainstream economic growth theories only consider the value added production function, rather than gross output production function, thus ignoring the role of intermediate inputs in the production process and the evaluation of economic efficiency. This paper is based on the statistical characteristics, basic model and empirical test of the basic paradigm. From the perspective of statistical characteristics, China's intermediate inputs coefficients are significantly higher than that of U.S. and Japan and other developed countries. The energy consumption per unit GDP is far over the world average level, which shows that the characteristic of China's economic growth is of extensive growth mode. By using theoretical derivation and numerical simulation, this paper has drawn the conclusion that a country's economic growth mode is related to the intermediate inputs elasticity of substitution, value added rate (VAR), technical level, and some other parameters. Firstly, there exists substitution rather than complementary linkage between primary investment and intermediate inputs. Secondly, economic growth rate shows negative correlation with the size of the elasticity of substitution of intermediate inputs, and the greater, the slower, and vice versa. Thirdly, inverted U shape shows that with the increase of intermediate inputs rate, the equilibrium output increases first and then decreased. In other words, there exists an optimal VAR. In the empirical analysis by using data of China, U.S., Japan and Brazil, the paper proves that there are obvious differences in the elasticity of substitution of intermediate inputs among different countries at their different stages during development. On the one hand, there is a different elasticity of substitution at different stage for a country with a certain independence, and the elasticity of substitution of U.S. is much higher than that of China. On the other hand, there is deviation between the actual VAR and the optimal VAR among these countries, and the deviation of China and Brazil is much larger than that of U.S. and Japan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on five original sentiment indicators in Hong Kong stock market, including the closed-end fund discount rate, the average first-day returns of initial public offering (IPO), the number of IPO, the market trading volume and turnover, this paper uses the principal component analysis method to calculate a comprehensive investor sentiment index. After excluding the trend and seasonal factors from the comprehensive investor sentiment index and Hong Kong Hang Seng Index by autoregressive moving average-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARMA-GARCH) family models, this paper makes correlation analysis and Granger causality test on the residuals of ARMA-GARCH model. The study shows that ARMA-GARCH models can effectively process the autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity of investor sentiment index and Hong Kong Hang Seng Index. Also, it indicates that the Hang Seng index return is the Granger cause of investor sentiment in short terms while not in long terms. That is to say investor sentiment would be more optimistic in short terms when the Hong Kong stock market goes up, and vice versa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the work of financial system engineering in China from 2010 to 2014, and further concludes future development strategies. Firstly, the research object and method are defined. Through literature documentation process with both China and abroad papers, statistics of Journals, research institutions, research team, and supported fund are obtained. Through Bradford and Lotka test, we conclude the current research status of financial system engineering development in China. Further, all research are classified into 9 main research questions, which are the key research questions during the past 5 years. Finally, we proposed development strategies for future development of financial system engineering research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The medium-term power load forecasting is often disturbed by a variety of external factors (such as temperature, holidays and wind power) and uncertainties. Also, the factors affecting the medium-term power load forecasting are complex and changeable, and it is difficult to predict accurately. In the big data environment, how to obtain valuable information quickly in a variety of large number of influence factors has become the key to the power load forecasting problems. A method of density forecasting based on LASSO quantile regression was proposed in this paper. First, the important influence factors were selected from the various external factors affecting the power load forecasting, and the LASSO quantile regression model was established. Then, by using the triangular kernel function, LASSO quantile regression was combined with the method of kernel density estimation for the medium-term power load probability density forecasting. Taking the historical load and external influence factors (including temperature, holidays and wind power) of a sub-provincial city in eastern China as an example, the probability density prediction of medium-term power load was carried out. The average absolute error obtained was respectively 3.53% and 3.69% in the median and the mode, which was better than the results without considering the external factors and without variable selection. In order to further verify the superiority of the method, the method was compared with the nonlinear quantile regression (NLQR) and the quantile regression neural network based on triangle kernel (QRNNT) probability density forecasting methods. The results illustrate that this method can better solve the high-dimensional data problem in power load forecasting, and obtain more accurate results of power load forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The water level control plan is an important problem of getting more benefits of cascade reservoirs. Especially to reservoirs with large regulating capacity, the rationality and effectiveness of water level control plan under jointly operation determine the comprehensive benefits of cascade reservoirs. In this paper, the cascade reservoirs in lower reach of Yalong River are taken as a case study. Optimal operation model of the cascade reservoirs is built and a new approach named double progressive method (DPM) is proposed and applied. The impoundment starting time and minimum water level are two key problems of water level control plan. By solving the two problems and taking the results as foundation, the optimal water level control plan of Yalong River lower reach cascade reservoirs under different runoff frequency is concluded. The conclusion and water level control plan of this paper can be references for real operation of cascade reservoirs in lower reach of Yalong River. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using recent survey panel data from 1000 Chinese rural households from 2005-2011, this paper attempted to estimate the extent of consumer credit constraints as well as its impact on the net income and consumption expenditure of rural households. Our results revealed that 83.7% of Chinese rural households were rationed in the credit markets. Of these, 55.2% were completely rationed and 24.2% were partially rationed. Furthermore, this consumer credit rationing caused a 13.7% loss in net income and a 25.6% loss in consumption expenditure for these rural households in China. Finally this paper proposes some policy suggestions based on the empirical results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper utilizes the heterogeneous common factor models to investigate the asymmetric impacts of RMB exchange rate on the exports based on the export data classified by HS 2 digits from January 2001 to December 2008. The results show that the impacts of RMB exchange rate on Chinese exports vary with the exports of processing commodities. The appreciation of RMB will have a negative effect on the exports with small proportion of processing commodities. However, this negative impacts will decrease when the proportion of export on processing commodities increases. This paper also explains why the RMB5s appreciation has a positive impact on Chinese export and a large number of firms find it hard to operate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After loosening the hypothesis of bank size, this paper developed an improved three-bank model to analyze the relation between bank size and its systemic importance. By introducing L function, multivariate extreme theory and three indexes of banking systemic importance, the paper analyzed the impact of size on banks' systemic importance, and found that bank size is the necessary condition of the systemic importance, but not the sufficient condition. In addition, this study conducted an empirical analysis by examining the trading data of 14 listed commercial banks in China. The results were basically in accord with our theoretical prediction. Both the theory and empirical results point out that the size has played a critical role in banks' systemic importance and its impact would be weakened as soon as the size reaches some threshold. This study has theoretical and practical value for the identification and supervision of banks' systemic importance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically studies the finance agglomeration and regional finance development disparities in China based on the sample of 31 provinces from 1997 to 2009. This paper calculates the degree of finance agglomeration using different measures and compares the results. Also, this paper discusses the spatial dependence of finance industry and the evolution of it using Moral I test and Moral scatter plots. The results illustrate that finance industry does not show significant spatial dependence or agglomeration for the whole country, however, there exists some area, where finance industry has some kind of spatial dependence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Industrial structure and water resources consumption structure are highly correlated and the adjustment of industrial structure will change the water resources consumption structure. Only by directly promoting economic growth and indirectly reducing water resources consumption at the same time, can we achieve economic and ecological benefits simultaneously, and conform to the concept of scientific development. This paper embarks on the Pareto optimal condition in the theory of welfare economics and puts forward the index of "structure deviation coefficient" which is used to measure the correlation between industrial structure and water resources consumption structure. The new index tries to provide an effective way to measure the deviation from economic and ecological benefits from the view of water resources consumption. In the empirical analysis, this paper employs the data of industrial economy, water resources and input-output table of Beijing thus showing the evolution and current situation of industrial structure and water resources consumption structure. On the basis of that, we calculate the structure deviation coefficient from three industries in Beijing. According to the empirical results, we also give qualitative assessment and evaluation to the adjustment of industrial structure in Beijing from the view of water resources consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Firstly, based on the status quo of air pollution in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei province, the paper summarized three basic assumptions on inter-provincial cooperative air pollution control. Secondly, the paper constructed inter-provincial cooperative air pollution control game model which included the regional optimization model and the Shapley value allocation method. By solving the regional optimization model, the paper obtained the optimal reduction and reduction cost for each province. Then applying the Shapley value allocation method, the paper achieved the relatively fair distribution of the cooperation benefit among Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei province. Finally, the paper used the SO2 reduction of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei province in 2009 as an example to carry out the empirical analysis. The results demonstrated the effectiveness and practicability of the model, and optimized simulation results of the model can be used as a reference for regional decision-making, such a win-win model will enhance regional cooperation in air pollution control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the policy working environment becomes increasingly complex, uncertain and random, it is urgent to research into the synergy problems of energy conservation and emission reduction policies in China. This paper sorts out the major aspects of the current researches on energy conservation and emission reduction policies and policy synergy based on the overview of the existing policies of energy conservation and emission reduction. In view of the analysis, it can be found that as to the researches on energy conservation and emission reduction policy, at present researches mainly concentrate on the aspects of analyzing the deficiencies and working difficulties, evaluating the result, analyzing the potential and cost in different policy circumstances, looking for the optimal way, analyzing the policy welfare, discussing the international comparison and using for reference, and so on, but pay less attention to the synergy problems of energy conservation and emission reduction policies; the researches of policy synergy mostly focus on the aspects of discussing the synergetic situation, necessity, performance and implementation mechanism, etc. By drawing on existing research results, this paper further discusses the follow-up research directions of policy synergy on energy conservation and emission reduction polices from the perspectives of assessing the current synergetic situation and performance, discussing the enlightenment and reference from the foreign countries synergy mode, exploring the optimal synergy way, analyzing the international synergy models and best degree of synergy, exploring the approaches to avoid the failure and negative effects of the synergy, analyzing the synergy of energy conservation and emission reduction polices with other polices, building the synergetic mechanism, etc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper finds that, value added induced by per unit of final demand has decreased in China from 2002 to 2007, by employing non-competitive input-output model capturing processing trade. To explore the reason why it decreased, the paper proposes a modified structural decomposition analysis (SDA) method, considering the characteristic of multi-regional input-output table. By using this method, one not only can decompose the technology coefficients into substitution effect and fabrication effect, but also can evaluate the contribution of each region to the change of dependent variables. The results show that decreasing value-added ratio and change of final demand structure of domestic enterprises' products are the main causes of the decrease. Meanwhile, substitution of foreign invested enterprises' products to imports has inhibited this decline effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is the first attempt to use the non-cooperation game theory to study the strategies of airline carbon tax from EU. Based on inducing four scenarios, non-resistance, refusal of payment, retaliatory duties and creditable threat, Stackelberg game models are developed to find the optimal strategies of countries. The results show that the strategy of refusal of payment, which China is taking step, is superior to the retaliatory duties. The main contribution of this paper is to study a new important international issue, airline carbon tax, summarize four coping strategies and analyze this issue by establishing Stackelberg game models for the first time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Technological developments and changes in relative prices lead to changes in the entire production structure. It is not easy to inversely derive the causes of changes from given changes of input-output coefficient matrix. RAS algorithm is a method to update and levelling typical input-out table. The paper attempts to expand this algorithm for the analysis model of changes in the industrial structure, and to decompose the input coefficient changes into column-specific, row-specific and cell-specific changes without setting industrial structure changes by demand-driven or supply-driven in advance. After that, quantitative analysis about changes in the industrial structure and the reasons of them in China is done in this paper. We find that while industrial structure in China is developing sophisticatedly, labor-intensive industries grow in a high rate, which reflects imbalanced regional development of Chinese economy, and the effect of internalization from industrial upgrading into regional industrial transfer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically tested the existence of the waiting option of the local government under the institutional background of urban land supply and management in China. Under the analysis frame of duration model, the paper constructed a Weibull-distribution based maximum likelihood empirical model, according to the exercise principle of the waiting option and the general testing methodology. Based on the sample of residential-used land transfer and housing market movement in Beijing, the empirical results reveal that every unit marginal increase of the standard deviation of the housing risk will significantly reduce the hazard rate of land transfer of local government by at least 20%, which strongly supports the hypothesis that the local government owns the waiting option in the land transfer process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper establishes a decision model of optimal capital structure based on decision-makers' cognitive heterogeneity. The relationships between cognitive bias and tax effect of capital structure are empirically tested using data of 337 companies listed on Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange from 2000 to 2010. This paper conducts an in-depth analysis of the impact of cognitive bias on tax effect of capital structure. The research reveals that, Chinese listed companies tend to employ conservative debt policies. Decision-maker's cognitive bias can have a major impact on the relationship between corporate capital structure and tax rate. When a decision-maker doesn't involve or involves to a minimum cognitive bias in decision making, the decision-maker will increase company's debt ratio relatively to the increase in tax rate. While, when cognitive bias of the policy-maker is medium or high, the capital structure decision and tax rate are uncorrelated. The findings show that, the corporate decision-maker's heterogeneity causes the sensitivity of corporate capital structure towards tax-rate change to vary. Thus, expanding the extensions of the theories of capital structure, and understanding of the effect of cognitive bias on the tax effect of corporate capital structure has both theoretical value and practical significance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a new input-output model, which is called non-competitive input-output model capturing foreign-funded enterprise and trade pattern. The model divides the economy into six parts in view of the great difference in production technology and structure between domestic enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises, and between processing export and non-processing export. The paper also compiled the corresponding table of 2007 for the new model, and estimated the different contribution of domestic enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises to China and the close relationship between them by using the new model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In contrast to the journal papers undergoing lengthy review process, conference papers are always timeliness and reflect latest achievements, thus tracing flagship conference papers may be quite helpful to understand the principal themes in the relevant domain. Take the symposia on social network and guanxi management as an example, this paper applies iView analysis to acquisition of a rough knowledge vision and the main topics of the research field. After a brief description of the mechanism of iView, knowledge vision of social network and guanxi management research is explored by iView analysis to the 4th event and the relevant serial symposia in China. The study also exposes the features about the local organizers and their research strength, the domain research updates and possible trend of social network and guanxi management research. As an application, we want to exhibit a rapid way to acquire main concerns and trends about one domain research by intelligent information technologies applied to qualitative research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on DEA-Malmquist index, considered the element of energy, the paper decomposed the output growth of the three leading industries in Fujian province into two part: the growth of total factor productivity and the growth effects of input factors. The study found, after having considered the element of energy, during the years 2002-2009: 1) The average growth rate of the output of the three leading industries was 21.48%, mainly depended on the growth of input factors; 2) The growth of total factor productivity led outputs growth 7.48 percentage points every year, with the contribution of 2.98 percentage points of technological progress, and technical efficiency improvement contributed 4.5 percentage points. The growth of input factors contribution to outputs growth was 14 percentage points; 3) The growth of input factors was dominant in the economic growth, under that condition, the development of the three leading industries in Fujian province showed a declining trend. Therefore, the paper argues that in order to maintain the rapid development of the three leading industries, we should make further improvement of the total factor productivity, including technological progress and technical efficiency improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The law on new enterprises tax has been established since January 1, 2008, and it rules unified tax rates for domestic and foreign enterprises in China, which is 25%. Is this specific unified enterprise tax optimal? Therefore, this paper builds a computable general equilibrium model and employs the 2007 national statistical data to try to answer this question and reports the optimal unified tax for manufacturing enterprises (state-owned enterprises, foreign investment enterprises and other private enterprises). Furthermore, this paper compares changes of social welfare, national income, fiscal revenues, and structural changes of employment, wage rates, capital input, capital returns, output and consumption demand, and so on, in the four economic sectors among three specific equilibria (benchmark equilibrium, 25% unified tax rate equilibrium, optimal unified tax rate equilibrium). Finally, this paper does the sensitivity analysis of the optimal unified tax rate for the actual investment foreign enterprise tax rate and the elasticity of substitution in CES utility function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Method of train traction calculation is applied into calculate station-end turn-back capacity of urban rail transit, and the calculation effects are analyzed. First of all, this paper described and analyzed categories and operation progress of station-end turn-back, and obtained the minimal departure interval calculation formula of single track turn-back and double track turn-back, and suggested the reasonable turn-back track number when the throat area cannot operate parallel. Then, the kinetic equation, which solved the calculation method of station-end turn-back by using train traction calculation, was proposed. Finally, this paper used Beijing subway station Beijingxi under construction and DKZ4 trains as an example, and obtained the minimal departure intervals of station-end turn-back while DKZ4 train was operated under energy-saving mode and time-saving mode: the turn-back time using double tracks is much longer than that using single track. Based on these, this paper compared and analyzed the calculation results with that using average acceleration and deceleration, and shows that using train traction calculation is valuable in the capacity calculation of turn-back station. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After the initiation of carbon trading pilots in seven provinces and cities in China, issues of their effectiveness and impact on economy, environment and export are of great significance to policy makers, managers and experts of environmental science. To respond to these issues, we first define the concepts of carbon emission reduction, energy saving and low-carbon economy and discuss policy measures and economic instruments related to carbon emission reduction. Focusing on "quantity control" and "price control", we analyze in detail their implementation process and actual effectiveness in both theoretical and practical points. Also, we present in this paper the mechanism and pathways of carbon emission reduction and their inspiration to China from macro, micro and technical perspectives. We then review the related literature and comment how these academic results can be used to help China to achieve its carbon reduction target at optimal economic costs. Finally, we point out the deficiencies and possible theoretical gaps in the previous studies and present some important issues that need further academic exploration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set (HFLTS) is defined as an ordered and consecutive subset of the linguistic term set for a linguistic variable. This paper carries out some states of the art review over the development of HFLTS theory. Firstly, we introduce the definition and originality of the HFLTS, and then conduct the review from four aspects, which are the hesitant fuzzy linguistic fusion theory, the hesitant fuzzy linguistic measurement theory, the hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation theory and the hesitant fuzzy linguistic decision making methodologies. Finally, we outline the future research directions on qualitative decision making with hesitant fuzzy linguistic information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper setted two scenarios of A and B based on a model of multivariate empirical probability distributions (MVE) to forecast China's cereals production in a short run. Four measures of the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and Theil's inequality coefficient (Theft IC) were used to test ex post simulation fit. Result indicates that the MVE model's short-term prediction accuracy is better simulated, and if the deadline of historical data is closer to the starting time, the statistic fit is better. The paper also finds that according to historical data from 2000 to 2008 (B scenario), the simulated mean values of China's cereals production in 2010 and 2011 are 532.88 million tons and 538.87 million tons, and the standard deviation values are 19.67 million tons and 20.01 million tons, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays most countries, China included, use index system approach in industry test. However, because this approach can not distinguish the influence from that of many non-dumping factors on the concerned industry, it discounts the credibility of research results. Based on the COMPAS model, which developed fast in recent years, this paper explore theoretically how dumping affects the import-competitive industry's output, prices and income through price mechanism. Then based on the data of the China's anti-dumping case agaist chicken products form USA in 2009, this paper did an empirical test on how the dumping of chicken products imported from USA affects China's chicken industry. The empirical results show that China's chicken product's price fell by about 4%, output fell by 13%, industry-wide income fell by 17% because of the dumping of imported chicken products from USA from 2006 to 2009. The empirical results are in line with the results of the theoretical analysis and the reality of China's chicken industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper constructed the ecosystem comprehensive evaluation index system framework using driver-pressure-state-impacts-response (DPSIR) conceptual model. The comprehensive evaluation index system is formed through the selection, screening and rational analysis of ecological-system indicators. The evaluation model is established using the improved group Gl method to determine the index weight. At the same time, the paper uses empirical analysis to analyze the ecological conditions of 14 typical Chinese provinces. The contributions of this paper come from three aspects. Firstly, the paper constructed index system using DPSIR conceptual framework, and bring human demand, economic development and social progress into the system. Secondly, use the similarity degree of the ratio vectors or similarity degree of the order relation after equivalent formulation to empower the expert's knowledge and experience. Thirdly, through adding natural disaster index into the pressure layer of the index system, the paper described the effect of natural disaster on ecosystem. This improved the existing DPSIR model which only considered the effect of human activity on ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accident probability calculation of the gas fields with high sulfur content, high pressure, and high yield (3-highs) has been the focal and difficult point in risk assessment for gas well drilling accidents in China and abroad. In order to calculate the accident rate reasonably, the paper used the fault tree method and Bayesian updating to research the accident probability of the gas well drilling with 3-highs. Firstly, the paper described the mechanism of the accidents using fault tree analysis (FTA), then made use of Bayesian method to update existing statistic data for reducing uncertainty, and got the probability distributions of the top event and related incidents with Monte Carlo simulation finally. Empirical results show that the method could effectively reduce the uncertainty arisen from limited sample data and judge difference from experts, and could provide reference for quantitative risk assessment of the gas well drilling with 3-highs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bubbles are often defined as exponentially explosive prices within traditional financial bubble models. These models are bearing criticism to be not able to effectively detect the bubbles because the exponentially growing price regime observed, which is defined as bubble, could also be rationalized by some possible fundamental valuation models. However, super-exponential growth bubble models can provide a clear distinguishing signature between bubble and fundamental growth. In this kind of models, the essence of bubble reflects the faster-than-exponential characteristics, which implies a theoretical finite termination time. This paper attempted to introduce a new super-exponential growth bubble model, which is called Stochastic Mean-Reverting Critical Times model. According to this model, detection and diagnostic of bubble were translated into i) testing existence of a stationary mean-reverting critical times series embedded in nonlinear non-stationary stock price series, ii) estimation of exponent for positive feedback effects and the potential critical time. Employing this model, the empirical study for Chinese stock market indicates that the 2005-2007 Chinese bubble can be detected; the strength as well as stability of bubbles among 29 industrial sectors be also measured. Meanwhile, this model suggests the feasibility of advance bubble warning for Chinese stock market. At the last, this paper discusses the policy implication for bubble precaution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper developed a stochastic framework that helps to quantify a country's optimal level of foreign exchange reserves and sovereign wealth funds under external shocks to balance of payments and does the scenario analysis employing China's data. We found that lower opportunity cost of foreign exchange reserves will raise the demand for foreign exchange reserves, while greater liquidation cost of sovereign wealth funds will decrease the amount added to sovereign wealth funds. The current level of China's foreign reserves is higher than the optimal level, some of which should be added to sovereign wealth funds to obtain more earnings and wealth. The specific management strategies are put forward in the paper. Scenario analysis indicates the strategies make the total cost consisting of opportunity and liquidation cost of holding foreign reserves reduce significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]