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We establish a Rosen-Roback spatial equilibrium model which decomposes the total economic growth into the change of labor input, total factor productivity (TFP) and wage differences. We calculate the model-based contribution of the cities, especially megacities, to Chinese aggregate economy. By using data of 285 cities from 2002 to 2015, we find out that the model-based contribution of Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing and Guangzhou to aggregate growth turn out to be higher than what is simply inferred from the share in GDP. Factor decomposition shows that the positive impact of megacities on Chinese economy comes from the increase in TFP and the increase in labor input, while the megacities widen wage dispersion of the whole country, generating a negative effect on economic growth. "Counterfactual" studies show that for the period 2002-2015, the top-five megacities increase the Chinese aggregate economy by 25.33%, and if the top-five did not enlarge the wage dispersion, then the aggregate economy would increase by 40.42%. Our research also shows that the overall development of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta regions is more balanced, while the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region still have a long way to go to reach the coordinated development. Since no previous study has used city level data in China to analyze the impact of megacities on Chinese economy, our research will fill this gap. According to the empirical results, this paper puts forward two suggestions, one is to further reduce the wage dispersion in China, the second is to further coordinate the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region for more balanced development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For detecting rational bubbles, via relaxing the coefficient constraints of switching regression model, the paper proposes a more efficient model, autoregressive (AR) switching model, and gives the estimation method. An application to seasonally Chinese housing price data in the first decade of 21 century shows the model is more efficient than switching regression model, and provides evidence of bubbles in Beijing and Shanghai, but no evidence of bubbles in Tianjin and Chongqing. Further more, the probabilities of being in survival state show that the real estate-related policies of Chinese government have ruled out bubbles in Beijing, but not in Shanghai. The proposed model can also be used to detect rational bubbles with regime switching structures in other assets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Logistics cost control is always an academic and business circles' hot topic and the enterprise can effectively reduces business costs by controlling this "black continent". This paper built the structure model of manufacturing enterprise's logistics operational cost, and simulated the model: a case study of Tianjin handicraft firm, finally proposed some optimizational tactics. The research results indicated that the complex relation among factors of manufacturing enterprise's logistics operational cost system could be better revealed with the use of system dynamics methodology and the method proposed can provide guides and references for logistics cost control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]