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Recycling carbon tax revenue is a significant part of the design of a nation's carbon tax system. The impact of different recycling principles on the socio-economy and carbon emission reduction varies greatly. Under the background of China's goal of reaching peak carbon emissions, this paper designed three carbon tax recycling principles based on the goal of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), including recycling principles based on output ratio, export ratio, and carbon intensity. A recursively dynamic CGE model was developed in this study to evaluate the economic effects of these three carbon tax recycling principles based on tax neutrality under China's goal of reaching peak carbon emissions. Carbon tax recycling measures could mitigate the economic losses caused by carbon tax, and the results could be greatly affected according to different recycling principles. The results showed that: 1 The recycling principle based on output ratio could reduce economic losses and improve households' social welfare. 2 China's carbon intensity in 2030 could be reduced by more than 65% compared with that in 2005, and the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption could reach 25% using the recycling principle based on carbon intensity, but the economic loss mitigation effect of the recycling measures based on this principle was small. 3 Adopting the recycling principle based on export ratio would narrow the competitive gap between China and foreign countries, and the exports of high-carbon-intensity goods would not increase under this principle. 4 According to principles based on output ratio and export ratio, the NDC goal of non-fossil energy accounting for about 25% of primary energy consumption by 2030 could not be achieved, and only the NDC goal of reducing carbon emissions per unit of GDP by more than 65% compared with that of 2005 could be achieved. In brief, as an essential policy tool to achieve China's goal of reaching peak carbon emissions, the carbon tax should be implemented as soon as possible. At the same time, according to China's national conditions, a targeted choice of carbon tax recycling principle is needed. The role of the carbon tax in the process of achieving the goal of Nationally Determined Contributions should be fully utilized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China mentioned that China is facing tightening resource and environmental constraints, environmental pollution, and other issues, and the energy-consuming right trading policy is a key measure to promote green, circular, and low-carbon development in China. Under the dual consideration of ecological benefits and economic benefits, this paper took the pilot launch of energy-consuming trading as a quasi-natural experiment and used panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2009 to 2020 and the different-in-differences method to explore the impact of this policy on the optimization and upgrading of China's industrial structure. The study showed that: (J) The energy-consuming right trading policy could promote the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure, and the promotion effect on the upgrading of the industrial structure outweighed its adverse impact on the rationalization of the industrial structure, as evidenced by a series of robustness tests. © The mechanism analysis showed that the realization paths of industrial structure upgrading were the upgrading of technological innovation and that of energy consumption structure, and the policy suppressed the adverse impact on the rationalization of industrial structure by improving the input structure and output structure of some industrial sectors. © In addition, the pilot policy of energy-consuming rights had obvious regional heterogeneity for the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, which significantly promoted the upgrading of industrial structure in the central and western regions and the rationalization of industrial structure in the eastern regions. This study provides some policy references for the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure from the perspective of improving the energy-consuming right trading market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]