1. 近地面臭氧、高温对中国粮食生产的影响.
- Author
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陆岐楠, 刘子亨, and 曲晓睿
- Abstract
Ensuring food security is a major strategic issue and a key to maintaining social stability for China. China’s grain produc‑ tion may be adversely affected by both ground-level ozone and high temperature due to the rise in ozone concentration and extreme weather. A large amount of literature has studied the effects of ground-level ozone and high temperature on crop yield separately, but very few of them have investigated the joint effects of these two factors on crop yield. We collected various types of air pollutants and climate-related variables from ECMWF reanalysis data. Combined with the input-output data and other economic data at the county level, a seven-year panel dataset with 1747 counties in China was constructed. This paper first used semi-parametric estimation methods to estimate the separate and joint nonlinear impacts of ground-level ozone and high temperature on crop yield, respectively. Our results suggested that high ozone concentration and high temperature had significant adverse effects on rice and corn, respectively. The nonlinear estimation results showed that the critical loss points of rice to ozone and air temperature were about 53×10−9 and 19 ℃, while these numbers were approximately 60×10−9 and 18 ℃, respectively, for corn. The bivariate semi-parametric estimation results revealed that these two crops were affected by ozone and high temperature differently: rice was sensitive to both ozone and high temperature, but corn was more sensitive to high temperature than ozone. Empirical results remained robust after a series of robustness tests. Given that the background level of ozone in China has been increasing over the years, our nonlinear estimation results suggest that it is an economical choice to restrict the ozone levels to below 65×10−9 and 60×10−9, respectively, in rice- and corn-grown regions, balancing between grain loss and the cost of controlling ozone pollution. In addition, our binary semi-parametric estimation results suggest that the department of agriculture should fully consider the sensitivity heterogeneity of different crops to ozone and high temperature, and guide farmers to adapt via crop choices when other conditions permit to reduce or eliminate the negative impact of ozone on grain production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
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