1. 基于人际关系的传染病传播仿真模型研究.
- Author
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张亚楠, 龙 华, 邵玉斌, 杜庆治, 陈腾飞, and 宋肖肖
- Subjects
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INFECTIOUS disease transmission , *INTERPERSONAL relations , *COVID-19 pandemic , *SOCIAL distance , *SOCIAL interaction , *BASIC reproduction number , *EPIDEMICS , *REPRODUCTION - Abstract
By establishing a simulation model of infectious disease transmission based on interpersonal relationship, this paper studied the process of infectious disease transmission and the trend of epidemic development under relevant prevention and control measures. Described the contact and interaction between individuals based on the interpersonal relationship, this paper established an agent-based simulation model. It adjusted the model parameters based on the initial data collected by the Wuhan COVID-19 epidemic platform of the Chinese Health Commission, estimated the basic reproduction number (R0), and simulated the scenarios of different epidemic prevention and control methods, explored the trend of epidemic spread under different intervention measures. The established model for the spread of infectious diseases based on interpersonal relationships first simulated the spreading process of the Wuhan epidemic in the early stage, and estimated the COVID-19 R0 before Wuhan was closed to the public. Subsequently, the model preliminarily predicted the development trend of the epidemic in Yangzhou and found that the epidemic had entered a controllable stage. By discussing the impact of different intervention measures on the development of the epidemic in densely populated places (in the case of schools), this paper put forward relevant prevention and control opinions for the current students starting in the fall. Finally, it discussed the effect of the social movement distance of individuals in social contact networks on the epidemics transmission, and it was found that an increase in the social movement distance of individuals increased the risk of transmission of infectious diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2022
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