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Zoning seasonal drought based on the study of drought characteristics can provide theoretical basis for formulating drought mitigation plans and improving disaster reduction technologies in different arid zones under global climate change. Based on the National standard of meteorological drought indices and agricultural drought indices and the 1959-2008 meteorological data from 268 meteorological stations in southern China, this paper analyzed the climatic background and distribution characteristics of seasonal drought in southern China, and made a three-level division of seasonal drought in this region by the methods of combining comprehensive factors and main factors, stepwise screening indices, comprehensive disaster analysis, and clustering analysis. The first-level division was with the annual aridity index and seasonal aridity index as the main indices and with the precipitation during entire year and main crop growing season as the auxiliary indices, dividing the southern China into four primary zones, including semi-arid zone, sub-humid zone, humid zone, and super-humid zone. On this basis, the four primary zones were subdivided into nine second-level zones, including one semi-arid area-temperate-cold semi-arid hilly area in Sichuan-Yunnan Plateau, three sub-humid areas of warm sub-humid area in the north of the Yangtze River, warm-tropical sub-humid area in South China, and temperate-cold sub-humid plateau area in Southwest China, three humid areas of temperate-tropical humid area in the Yangtze River Basin, warm-tropical humid area in South China, and warm humid hilly area in Southwest China, and two super-humid areas of warm-tropical super-humid area in South China and temperate-cold super-humid hilly area in the south of the Yangtze River and Southwest China. According to the frequency and intensity of multiple drought indices, the second-level zones were further divided into 29 third-level zones. The distribution of each seasonal drought zone was illustrated, and the zonal drought characteristics and their impacts on the agricultural production were assessed. Accordingly, the drought prevention measures were proposed.

Based on the 1959-2008 meteorological data from 249 meteorological stations in southern China, and by using crop water deficit index (CWDI) as the agricultural drought index, this paper calculated the drought frequency and drought stations ratio in this region, and analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of drought for spring maize and summer maize during their growth periods. As for the spatial pattern of drought frequency, the drought for spring maize was more severe in the north of Huaihe River, northern Yunnan, and southern South China, but was lighter in the other regions. Except that the drought for summer maize at its late developmental stage was more severe in the middle-lower reaches of Yangtze River, northern South China, and eastern Southwest China, the drought for summer maize at its other developmental stages within southern China was lighter. As for the variation trend of drought intensity and drought area, the drought intensity of spring maize from its seven-leaf stage to jointing stage in the middle-lower reaches of Yangtze River increased obviously, while the drought intensity and drought area of the spring maize from its late spinning stage to milky maturity stage presented a decreasing trend. The drought of summer maize from its late jointing stage to tasseling stage and from late spinning stage to milky maturity stage all showed a decreasing trend. In Southwest China, the drought intensity and drought area for spring maize and summer maize had no clear trend. From the viewpoint of the inter-annual and decadal variability of drought intensity and drought area, there was a larger variation for the summer maize in the middle-lower reaches of Yangtze River, but less difference in Southwest China.

Based on the 1959-2008 precipitation data from 262 meteorological stations in southern China, this paper analyzed the change characteristics of seasonal precipitation trend coefficient, precipitation variability, and annual and decadal precipitation standardized anomalies in this region. In the study period, there was a great difference among the trend of quarter precipitation. In most parts of the region, the precipitation in spring and autumn presented a decreasing trend but that in summer and winter was in adverse; only in southwest part, a slightly different trend was observed. In the whole region, the probability of spring drought decreased, but that of summer drought, autumn drought, and winter drought increased. Spring drought often occurred in south and southwest parts, summer drought and autumn drought often occurred in south part and the middle, lower reaches of Yangtze River, and winter drought expanded from south part to south part and the middle, lower reaches of Yangtze River. The precipitation in spring and autumn was below the normal level after the 1980s, while that in summer and winter was below the normal level before the 1990s, above the normal level in the 1990s, and below the normal level since the 21st century. The decadal change of the seasonal precipitation standardized anomaly in each part of the region was basically consistent, i. e., decreased in autumn and increased in summer and winter.

Based on the 1988-2008 located observation and 2007-2008 encrypted observation of potato growth and the 1957-2008 meteorological observation in semi-arid region of Loess Plateau, this paper studied the effects of climate change on the potato growth in this region. In 1957-2008, the annual precipitation in this region had a descending trend, with a linear fitting rate of the annual precipitation change curves being - 13.359 mm x (10 a)(-1), while the annual mean temperature displayed an ascending trend, with a linear fitting rate of the annual mean temperature change curves being 0.239 degrees C x (10 a)(-1). During potato growth period, the aridity index displayed a marked ascending trend, and the linear fitting rate of the aridity index change curves was 0.102 x (10 a)(-1). The growth rate of potato tuber became faster from the 96th day after sowing, reached the maximum on the 110th day, and turned slower from the 124th day. The interval from sowing to seedling emergence was shortened by 1-2 d x (10 a)(-1), and that from inflorescence formation to reaping and of whole growth period was lengthened by 9-10 d x (10 a) (-1). In the study region, climate warming shortened the vegetative growth stage, but lengthened the reproductive growth stage and whole growth period of potato.

Droughts are increasing in frequency and intensity as the global climate changes. Risk assessment for agricultural drought disasters is an important approach for disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on the formation mechanism of natural disaster risk, the index system model of agricultural drought risk assessment in North China was constructed, and the robustness of the established risk assessment model was tested by using the internal test method. Then based on the characteristics of agricultural drought risk formation in North China, the paper proposes corresponding risk prevention recommendations. The conclusions were as follows: when adjusting the indices and methods in the risk assessment model, the range of changes in the agricultural drought risk ranking for each city was mostly 1-2.5 places, and the model was relatively robust. With the exception of Beijing and Tianjin, which had the highest disaster prevention and mitigation capacity, central and northern China had the highest agricultural drought risk, which was previously linked to the high risk and vulnerability of these regions. The agricultural drought risk in northern Henan and southern Shandong is low, mainly due to the low risk. The 34 cities in North China can be divided into 6 agricultural drought risk clusters, which are not dispersed in space and cross-city distribution, and have good aggregation. Cluster 4, located in the northernmost mountainous areas, has the highest risk of drought, which is associated with high environmental vulnerability and low capacity for disaster prevention and mitigation, so agricultural areas should be reduced and agricultural input should be increased. Clusters 2, 5 and 6, located in the central and southern regions, have higher grain acreage and yields due to drought, so agricultural drought risk can be further reduced by increasing agricultural input and improving irrigation guarantee rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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