4 results on '"*POLITICAL risk (Foreign investments)"'
Search Results
2. Global and Regional Systematic Risk Measurement and China's Overseas Investment: Sample of China's Main Overseas Destinations of Outward Investment.
- Author
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Yang Liuyong and Zhang Jingjing
- Subjects
INTERNATIONAL economic integration ,FOREIGN investments ,POLITICAL risk (Foreign investments) ,INVESTMENT risk ,INTERNATIONAL economic relations - Abstract
With the deepening of global economic integration, the relationships between the countries all over the world have become closer and the impact of systematic risk from the global market on individual countries goes up. Therefore, research on the risk of investment destination must involve an assessment of global systematic risk. At the same time, with the depth of regional integration, for example the use of a single currency and close cooperation among European countries, countries with close geographic or economic connections also share a common regional systematic risk. In the study of the risk of overseas investment, systematic risk must be distinguished from the idiosyncratic risk of the destination. The existing research on the overseas investment risk at the country level mainly focused on the analysis of "country risk." Using a modified Akdogan international risk decomposition model, the overall risk of China's overseas investment is differentiated into global systematic risks, regional systematic risks, and unsystematic risks. The main findings are reviewed below. (1) The overall risk was significantly lower in Europe, North America, and Oceania than in other regions, owing to the relatively small economic fluctuations in those mature economies. By contrast, Asia and South America bore higher overall risk. The emerging countries and regions in these regions had higher economic fluctuations, which may explain the high overall risk. (2) The proportion of global systematic risk in the overall risk was significantly high in the developed countries of Europe, reflecting these countries close ties to global economic fluctuations. From the perspective of country-specific characteristics, small and open countries and areas were more vulnerable to the impact of global systematic risk. The United Kingdom, South Africa, and Luxembourg, where China had large investments, had particularly high proportions of global systematic risk. High attention should be paid to these countries. In addition, North American and Oceania countries also have high proportion of global systematic risks. (3) Regional systematic risks were higher in Asia, Europe, and some countries of America and Oceania, which were the most important destinations of China's overseas investment. Special attention should be paid to Indonesia, Korea, Mongolia, Pakistan, Australia, Germany, Luxembourg, the United Kingdom, and Canada, which had relatively high investment volumes of Chinese investment but high regional systematic risks. Thus it is advised that investors could increase investment to South America to diversify regional systematic risk. (4) The proportion of idiosyncratic risk was remarkably high in African countries. China invested in a number of African countries but for each country the volume of investment was low. In this way the idiosyncratic risk had been effectively diversified. This investing strategy should be continued. This paper differs from the existing research in that the latter only focused on the risks of overseas investment in a single country or area while this study has analyzed the risks of overseas investment from the perspective of systematic and unsystematic risk based on the sample of China's main OFDI targets. To some extent, this paper has filled in a gap in this research area, and has provided reference for Chinese overseas investment from the viewpoint of systematic risk prevention. Moreover, the conclusion made by this study on the countries with high systematic risk is different from the previous literature and it reflects better the closely connected modern international market. The limitation of this paper is that this study hypothesize that the levels of systematic and unsystematic risk do not change during the time range of our research. Future research can use monthly data to measure the risk of the sample countries (areas) year by year and investigate the trends of the risk changes across time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2013
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. Franchising or Management Contract. An Empirical Analysis about the Strategic Choice for International Expansion of Hospitality Industry.
- Author
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HE Xiao-rong and LUO Wen-bin
- Subjects
RETAIL franchises ,MANAGEMENT contracts ,HOTELS ,HOSPITALITY industry ,POLITICAL risk (Foreign investments) - Abstract
Franchising and management contracts are important strategic choices for modern hospitality industry to achieve rapid expansion worldwide. The paper, through the survey to the senior managers of international hotel groups in Mainland China and by employing Probit model -- building method, finds that the larger our national political risk and economic risk are, the bigger scale of hotels' operation is. As opposed to franchising, the smaller proportion of management contracts adopted in hotels' international expansion is, the bigger regional legal risks are. The higher educational level and the richer international operational experience are, the more dispersed of hotel spatial distribution is. As opposed to franchising, the proportion of management contracts adopted during hotels' international expansion is bigger. The study conclusion is of good referential value to the international expansion of China' s tourist hotel groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2012
4. Early Warning System of Chinese OFDI Political Risk.
- Author
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Chen Feiqiong and Zhong Fangfang
- Subjects
POLITICAL risk (Foreign investments) ,FOREIGN investments ,GROSS domestic product ,ECONOMIC indicators ,ARTIFICIAL neural networks - Abstract
Political risk is taken as the starting point for assessing overseas investment projects, and it is also a crucial factor which influences the success of foreign investment. Therefore, to analyze the factors influencing the political risk and to construct a sensitive early warning system of political risk is of great practical and theoretical significance. Although there are some professional institutions worldwide that are specialized in measuring political risk, their assessments are simply conducted based on the host countries' own political, economic and social environment, ignoring the specific political risk of foreign direct investments regarding to a particular home country and a particular host country. Moreover, most of the political risk researches focused on risk assessment and prevention, but few of them paid attention to the early warning system. As a supplement of the previous researches, this paper aims to provide macro-level politicaI risk information for Chinese overseas investments by constructing an early warning system of political risk in 26 countries where Chinese investment flow abroad. On the basis of the summary of the relevant researches on political risk, this paper has explained the formation mechanism of the political risk and analyze the main factors influencing the political risk, which can be considered in the political, economic and social dimensions. We have proposed an indicators system to assess and predict the macro-political risk faced by Chinese OFDI. The indicators system suggested in this study consists of indicators such as political stability, the distance of the democracy degrees between China and the host country, the distance of the corruption levels between China and the host country, the host country's law culture, the host country's dependence on China, per capita income of the host country, GDP growth, inflation rate. With the annual data on the 8 indicators of the indicators system from 2002 to 2009, we have given scores to 26 host countries according to principal component analysis in terms of their macro political risk. Then this paper further classifies the political risk of these years into four levels. danger, alerting, basically safe and safe. Additionally, this paper has constructed an early warning system in political risk for foreign investment of Chinese companies based on BP Artificial Neural Network, through which we also predict the political risk of Chinese foreign investment in 2010. Based on the empirical study mentioned above, we argue that Chinese investors should guard against risk arising from political factors in politically and economically less-developed countries, against risk arising from economic factors in politically and economically moderately developed countries which also maintain good diplomatic relations and have less cultural differences with China,and against risk arising from political, cultural and social factors in politically and economically highly developed countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2012
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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