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In this paper, we develop a new forecasting algorithm for value-at-risk (VaR) based on ARMA-GARCH (autoregressive moving average-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic) models whose innovations follow a Gaussian mixture distribution. For the parameter estimation, we employ the conditional least squares and quasi-maximum-likelihood estimator (QMLE) for ARMA and GARCH parameters, respectively. In particular, Gaussian mixture parameters are estimated based on the residuals obtained from the QMLE of GARCH parameters. Our algorithm provides a handy methodology, spending much less time in calculation than the existing resampling and bias-correction method developed in Hartz et al. [Accurate value-at-risk forecasting based on the normal-GARCH model, Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 50 (2006), pp. 3032-3052]. Through a simulation study and a real-data analysis, it is shown that our method provides an accurate VaR prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate three interval estimators for binomial misclassification rates in a complementary Poisson model where the data are possibly misclassified: a Wald-based interval, a score-based interval, and an interval based on the profile log-likelihood statistic. We investigate the coverage and average width properties of these intervals via a simulation study. For small Poisson counts and small misclassification rates, the intervals can perform poorly in terms of coverage. The profile log-likelihood confidence interval (CI) is often proved to outperform the other intervals with good coverage and width properties. Lastly, we apply the CIs to a real data set involving traffic accident data that contain misclassified counts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although there has been significant research on modelling and learning user preferences for various types of objects, there has been relatively little work on the problem of representing and learning preferences over sets of objects. We introduce a representation language, DD-PREF, that balances preferences for particular objects with preferences about the properties of the set. Specifically, we focus on the depth of objects (i.e. preferences for specific attribute values over others) and on the diversity of sets (i.e. preferences for broad vs. narrow distributions of attribute values). The DD-PREF framework is general and can incorporate additional object- and set-based preferences. We describe a greedy algorithm, DD-Select, for selecting satisfying sets from a collection of new objects, given a preference in this language. We show how preferences represented in DD-PREF can be learned from training data. Experimental results are given for three domains: a blocks world domain with several different task-based preferences, a real-world music playlist collection, and rover image data gathered in desert training exercises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new method for detecting the parameter changes in generalized autoregressive heteroskedasticity GARCH (1,1) model is proposed. In the proposed method, time series observations are divided into several segments and a GARCH (1,1) model is fitted to each segment. The goodness-of-fit of the global model composed of these local GARCH (1,1) models is evaluated using the corresponding information criterion (IC). The division that minimizes IC defines the best model. Furthermore, since the simultaneous estimation of all possible models requires huge computational time, a new time-saving algorithm is proposed. Simulation results and empirical results both indicate that the proposed method is useful in analysing financial data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]