Search

• This paper proposed a novel wind speed forecasting algorithm. • A new dataset division mechanism based on the moving window is used in this paper. • In order to improve the accuracy and stability simultaneously, the multi-objective particle swarm optimization is applied. • We compared the proposed MOPSO-Combined method with the combined model that published before in the paper. Accurate wind speed forecasting is important in power grid security, power system management, operation and market economics. However, most research has focused only on improving either accuracy or stability, with few studies addressing the two issues, simultaneously. Therefore, we proposed a novel combined model based on multi-objective particle swarm optimization, which is applied to optimize the key parameters of the echo state network. Most combined wind speed forecasting methods just use the combination theory to combine individual methods, this paper uses echo state network to combine the intermediate wind speed forecasting results of three artificial neural networks. Moreover, a new dataset division mechanism based on the moving window is applied in this paper. Firstly, the length of the input data is changed from 5 to 15 for 1-step, 2-step and 3-step wind speed forecasting, after that, the optimal length of the input vector can be got. And then we apply this optimal length of the input vector to another dataset for further verifying the proposed method. In order to verify the forecasting effectiveness of the proposed forecasting model, the 80/min wind speed data of M2 tower of the National Wind Power Technology Center of the United States were taken as an example. The experimental results indicate that the proposed algorithm is superior to the other ten comparative models in prediction accuracy and stability, and it also performs better than the combined model that we have proposed before. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy system optimization models (ESOMs) should be used in an interactive way to uncover knife-edge solutions, explore alternative system configurations, and suggest different ways to achieve policy objectives under conditions of deep uncertainty. In this paper, we do so by employing an existing optimization technique called modeling to generate alternatives (MGA), which involves a change in the model structure in order to systematically explore the near-optimal decision space. The MGA capability is incorporated into Tools for Energy Model Optimization and Analysis (Temoa), an open source framework that also includes a technology rich, bottom up ESOM. In this analysis, Temoa is used to explore alternative energy futures in a simplified single region energy system that represents the U.S. electric sector and a portion of the light duty transport sector. Given the dataset limitations, we place greater emphasis on the methodological approach rather than specific results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]