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World leaders signed the Paris Agreement in 2015 to keep global temperatures well below 2 °C. This Paris Agreement will facilitate achieving Sustainable Development Goal-13 (Climate Action) by 2030. However, without collective action, it is quite impossible to achieve the terms of this agreement. In this regard, the mass media can contribute to making people aware of the subsequent effect of climate change at all levels. The mass media, as a source of information, might play a significant role in raising public awareness and understanding of climate sciences. This paper examines the influence of the mass media on awareness, attitudes and knowledge of climate change, which may lead to environmentally friendly behaviour. This paper employs structural equation modelling to examine the relationship among the studied variables. The results reveal that the mass media influences awareness, attitudes and knowledge of climate change. This study also finds mediating effects of awareness, attitudes and knowledge of climate change between the mass media and environmentally friendly behaviour. The results imply that the mass media contributes to creating awareness, enhancing understating and shaping favourable attitudes towards climate change. The findings could guide policymakers to take appropriate steps to promote a greater awareness of climate change using the mass media. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As successive reports have predicted tens or even hundreds of millions of people displaced by climate change in the coming decades, the politics of climate migration has moved to the forefront of contemporary public discourse. In particular, those least able to adapt and most vulnerable to exploitation have garnered media and policy attention. Nevertheless, analysis of this phenomenon is inhibited by the large scale, predominantly unidirectional nature of the phenomenon's social scientific analysis, leaving the power laden nature of resource and infrastructure persistently underplayed. In particular, how the geography of natural resources produces different patterns of (im)mobility in response to environmental change, even within the same community, remains poorly understood. Drawing on data gleaned from a multi-sited study of rural and migrant livelihoods in Cambodia, this paper highlights how the small scale, power-laden geography of water resources and irrigation shapes migration in response to the changing climate. Using brick workers as a case study of 'hyper-precarious' migrant labour, it uses quantitative, qualitative and spatial data to show how the socio-economically situated geography of water influences both perception of the climate, and mobility in response to it. Viewing this resource landscape as a form of hydrosocial power, the paper overarchingly makes a case for enhanced communication between the climate migration and hydrosocial power literatures, in order to better conceptualise the role of power in articulating the linkages between water geographies and climate mobility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conservation of historical urban centres is an important resource to encourage liveability and sustainable development of cities in the context of global climate change. It is a complex process that serves diverse perspectives, among them is the thermal comfort. The paper analyze the contribution of street configuration towards the improvement of thermal comfort at pedestrian level, in the Old Town of Camagüey-Cuba (World Heritage Site, since 2008). Simulations performed are run for summer and winter solstices by using RayMan model. The urban settings are represented by symmetrical street canyons (380 m long, 9 m width), with different solar orientations (i.e. N–S, NE–SW, E–W, NW–SE) and aspect ratios (i.e. H/W = 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, 3, 4, 5). Results are presented in terms of Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET). Our findings confirm that the spatial distribution of thermal conditions at street level, depend strongly on aspect ratio and street orientation. The results show extreme patterns of thermal comfort between N–S and E–W streets. Rotation to N–S orientation is a valid strategy to mitigate the heat stress in summer, with reductions of up to 2 h at the center of the street. Aspect ratios between 1 and 1.5 offer a quite acceptable thermal performance for summer and winter. PET patterns discussed give information about the most suitable locations for pedestrian within the street. The urban guidelines presented enable to urban planners rehabilitate and design cities, which are able to reduce the impact of thermal stress in hot-humid climates. The results could be included in the Urban Regulations of Camagüey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fisheries sectors in Vanuatu and Timor-Leste are important sources of food and income. Similar to other developing countries and those in the Pacific, they are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change more so because of their geographic location, socioeconomic conditions and political instability. Nonetheless, there are approaches to alleviate the damaging effects of climate change in the region's fisheries sector. Using economic modeling, this paper estimates the economic costs of potential climate change adaptation strategies for the fisheries sector in Vanuatu and Timor-Leste through assessment of alternative future scenarios. Strategies include aquaculture development, natural resource management through establishment and/or expansion of marine protected areas, and deployment of low-cost inshore fish aggregating devices. Modeling results demonstrate that the above innovations will enable the two countries to significantly improve coastal and freshwater fish production in the medium-term (2035) and long-term (2050). Fish consumption is projected to grow due to population and income improvements; yet considerable increases in production will augment demand. Furthermore, national-level gains are projected from these adaptation strategies through fish exports. Improved production under climate change will require significant investments from the national governments of Vanuatu and Timor-Leste and/or private sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Detecting and tracking extreme events in gridded climatological data is a challenging problem on several fronts: algorithms, scalability, and I/O. Successful detection of these events will give climate scientists an alternate view of the behavior of different climatological variables, leading to enhanced scientific understanding of the impacts of events such as heat and cold waves, and on a larger scale, the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Recent advances in computing power and research in data sciences enabled us to look at this problem with a different perspective from what was previously possible. In this paper we present our computationally efficient algorithms for anomalous cluster detection on climate change big data. We provide results on detection and tracking of surface temperature and geopotential height anomalies, a trend analysis, and a study of relationships between the variables. We also identify the limitations of our approaches, future directions for research and alternate approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought has had large impacts on economies, societies and the environment, and could become even more disruptive given the context of climate change characterized by increasing temperature and more variable and extreme precipitation. Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of droughts will have enormous impacts on the hydrological cycle, water management and agricultural production. Therefore, one major concern arising from climate change is its potential effects on water resources. Although South Korea has been experiencing serious drought and water scarcity issues in recent years, preparedness for potential changes in the frequency, severity and duration of drought disasters due to climate change effects has received only limited attention. It is important to detect changes in temporal trends of drought at the regional scale. This information will aid understanding the impacts of climate change and its subsequent effects on hydrology and agriculture. In this paper, we have addressed the question of how climate change might influence the impact of drought hazard by estimating the potential changes in temporal trends of drought in South Korea. We have assessed the temporal trends of future drought with drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index [SPI], Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index [SPEI], and Self-Calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index [SC-PDSI]) using past observed data (1981–2010) from 54 meteorological stations maintained by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and projected climate change scenarios (2011–2100) as depicted by the Representative Concentration Pathways models (RCPs). The drought hazard assessment was quantitatively evaluated by analyzing drought frequency, duration, severity and magnitude using the run theory method based on different timescales of the drought indices. The results demonstrated a significant increase of potential drought impacts in the future. Additionally, significant increases in the drought magnitude and severity were found at different time scales for each drought indicator. The results indicated that the temporal pattern of potential drought progression and recession across South Korea can be used for the development of proactive drought risk management and mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change present a range of equity issues for human being, but operating the equity principle within emission allocation scheme to various parties has raised multiple challenges. Although more than 40 schemes have been suggested in the literatures, there is little consistency in the way that baselines, scope, coverage and other key parameters have been compared or discussed. In this paper, we reviewed 41 schemes used in the literature so far and compared the cumulative allowances of main countries under various schemes in a consistent framework. Two cases are considered, i.e. only energy and industry related CO 2 and all Kyoto GHGs. Besides the allowances, carbon Gini coefficient in the global perspective and the reduction tradeoffs between country groups are further quantitatively discussed. It is demonstrated that the full ranges of countries’ allowances are quite large resulting from different equity considerations and implement methods behind different effort-sharing schemes. However, absolute mitigations are always required in developed countries in order to realize the 2 °C target, regardless of schemes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contributes to the literature on Indigenous health, human dimensions of climate change, and place-based dimensions of health by examining the role of environment for Inuit health in the context of a changing climate. We investigated the relationship between one key element of the environment – sea ice – and diverse aspects of health in an Inuit community in northern Canada, drawing on population health and health geography approaches. We used a case study design and participatory and collaborative approach with the community of Nain in northern Labrador, Canada. Focus groups (n = 2), interviews (n = 22), and participant observation were conducted in 2010–11. We found that an appreciation of place was critical for understanding the full range of health influences of sea ice use for Inuit. Negative physical health impacts were reported on less frequently than positive health benefits of sea ice use, which were predominantly related to mental/emotional, spiritual, social, and cultural health. We found that sea ice means freedom for sea ice users, which we suggest influences individual and collective health through relationships between sea ice use, culture, knowledge, and autonomy. While sea ice users reported increases in negative physical health impacts such as injuries and stress related to changing environmental conditions, we suggest that less tangible climate change impacts related to losses of health benefits and disruptions to place meanings and place attachment may be even more significant. Our findings indicate that climate change is resulting in and compounding existing environmental dispossession for Inuit. They also demonstrate the necessity of considering place meanings, culture, and socio-historical context to assess the complexity of climate change impacts on Indigenous environmental health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy consumption is necessary for the delivery of human development by supporting access to basic needs, services and infrastructure. Given prevailing technologies and the high degree of inertia in practical rates of decarbonisation, growth in energy consumption from rising global living standards may drive consequent greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). In this paper the ‘development as usual’ GHG emissions impact of achieving high levels of life expectancy, access to basic needs and continued economic growth are projected to the mid-century using historical elasticities of development and energy consumption in 3 regions – Africa, Centrally Planned Asia, and South Asia. The results suggest that long life expectancy and high levels of access to basic needs are achievable at lower levels of emissions than continued economic growth, but will consume a substantial share of the global budget associated with a 2 °C climate goal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a scalable “climate health justice” model for assessing and projecting incidence, treatment costs, and sociospatial disparities for diseases with well-documented climate change linkages. The model is designed to employ low-cost secondary data, and it is rooted in a perspective that merges normative environmental justice concerns with theoretical grounding in health inequalities. Since the model employs International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) disease codes, it is transferable to other contexts, appropriate for use across spatial scales, and suitable for comparative analyses. We demonstrate the utility of the model through analysis of 2008–2010 hospitalization discharge data at state and county levels in Texas (USA). We identified several disease categories (i.e., cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, heat-related, and respiratory) associated with climate change, and then selected corresponding ICD-9 codes with the highest hospitalization counts for further analyses. Selected diseases include ischemic heart disease, diarrhea, heat exhaustion/cramps/stroke/syncope, and asthma. Cardiovascular disease ranked first among the general categories of diseases for age-adjusted hospital admission rate (5286.37 per 100,000). In terms of specific selected diseases (per 100,000 population), asthma ranked first (517.51), followed by ischemic heart disease (195.20), diarrhea (75.35), and heat exhaustion/cramps/stroke/syncope (7.81). Charges associated with the selected diseases over the 3-year period amounted to US$5.6 billion. Blacks were disproportionately burdened by the selected diseases in comparison to non-Hispanic whites, while Hispanics were not. Spatial distributions of the selected disease rates revealed geographic zones of disproportionate risk. Based upon a downscaled regional climate-change projection model, we estimate a >5% increase in the incidence and treatment costs of asthma attributable to climate change between the baseline and 2040–2050 in Texas. Additionally, the inequalities described here will be accentuated, with blacks facing amplified health disparities in the future. These predicted trends raise both intergenerational and distributional climate health justice concerns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The California Current Ecosystem Long Term Ecological Research (CCE-LTER) site has been in existence since 2004. One of its primary objectives is to understand the response of the southern California Current ecosystem to climate forcing. The CCE-LTER site cooperates with the California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) program and complements CalCOFI׳s work through more extensive observations, process studies, and a modeling program. This special issue is focused on the long-term observations made by the CCE-LTER and CalCOFI programs, describing and understanding long-term changes in the physical, chemical, and biotic environment in the region. The papers in this issue highlight the climatological conditions during recent years and employ modeling to diagnose the principal forcing of meridional currents and eddy transport, both of which affect biotic responses. Changes in source waters in the region, and altered flushing of the Santa Barbara Basin, are considered. Temporal variations in inherent optical properties and in higher trophic levels, including seabirds and marine mammals, are presented. Key methodological developments presented include the incorporation of subsurface phytoplankton and light distributions in order to improve remotely sensed measures of primary production, and the validation of multi-frequency acoustic estimates of mesopelagic fish biomass. Results also highlight significant spatial differences across the CCE-LTER region, including cross-shore trends in microbial assemblages, and glider-resolved frontal features and zones of mixing associated with abrupt topography. Alterations to the spatial structure of the pelagic ecosystem must also be considered when evaluating future climate-related changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the occurrence rate of caisson sliding of a vertical breakwater during a storm and the probabilistic distribution of the individual sliding distances are derived as functions of such important design variables as water depth, significant wave height, and caisson width. The expressions for various representative sliding distances such as the significant sliding distance are also derived. The derived statistical characteristics of individual sliding distances are then used for calculating the first passage probability of an allowable individual sliding distance during a storm. A method is also proposed to calculate the time-dependent first passage probability for the case where wave climate and mean water depth change with time. Finally, tentative design criteria for the allowable individual sliding distance are proposed. The proposed method is applied to fictitious breakwaters in different water depths near the Port of Hitachinaka in Japan. The time-dependent first passage probability is calculated for the next 50 years in which the wave height may increase due to climate change. The first passage probability increases as time elapses, as the water depth increases, and as the allowable individual sliding distance decreases. Comparison with a previous study that uses a performance-based design method shows that the allowable first passage probability should be in the range between 0.05 and 0.09. For the proposed method to be used in a practical design, however, more detailed study should be made to determine the allowable values of individual sliding distance, first passage probability, and representative sliding distance, by comparing with current design methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary An increase in water demands, exacerbated by climate change and the tightening of environmental requirements, leads to a reduction in available water resources for economic uses. This situation poses challenges for water resource planning and management. Water accounting has emerged as an appropriate tool to improve transparency and control in water management. There are multiple water accounting approaches, but they generally involve a very exhaustive list of accounted concepts. According to our findings in this research, one of the best water accounting methodologies is the Australian Water Accounting Standard. However, its implementation for integrated water resource planning and management purposes calls into questioning the amount of information and level of detail necessary for the users of water accounts. In this paper, we present a different method of applying the Australian Water Accounting Standard in relation to water resource management, which improves its utility. In order to compare the original approach and that proposed here, we present and discuss an application to the Júcar Water Resource System, in eastern Spain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The geological storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) offers notable potential, as part of larger carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) processes, to be a significant climate change mitigation technology. This paper challenges the argument often put forward that, due to the greater distances from centres of population, it will be ‘easier’ to garner public and stakeholder support for offshore CO2 storage than onshore. Based on the results of research interviews carried out with stakeholders and informed publics in Scotland, challenges for public and stakeholder acceptance of sub-seabed CO2 storage that may require further policy attention are identified. Whilst existing policy for sub-seabed CO2 storage is cognisant of the need for societal engagement, it may be the case that these regulations may need further reinforcement to ensure future developments are able to address social acceptability issues as fully as possible. The value of taking into account social as well as physical characteristics at the site selection phase, the need for mechanisms to take seriously stakeholder conceptions of uncertainty, and the importance of extending social engagement beyond risk communication are discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In recent years there have been several heat waves affecting the use of thermoelectric power plants, e.g. in Europe and the U.S. In this paper the linkage between hydro-climatic conditions and possible electricity generation restrictions is described. The coupling of hydrological models and a power plant model is presented. In this approach each power plant is considered separately with its technical specifications. Also environmental regulations, e.g. permissible rise in the cooling water temperature, are considered for the respective power plant. The hydrological models developed to simulate river runoff and water temperature are also site specific. The approach presented is applied to Krümmel nuclear power plant in Germany. Analysed are the uncertainties with regard to electricity generation restrictions on account of climatic developments and corresponding higher water temperatures and low flows. Overall, increased water temperatures and declining river runoff lead to more frequent and more severe generation restrictions. It is concluded that the site-specific approach is necessary to reliably simulate power plants water demand, river runoff and water temperature. Using a simulation time step of one day, electricity generation restrictions are significantly higher than for simulations at monthly time step. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The coastal zone of Australia is likely to experience significant impacts as a result of climate change in the course of this century, even if the efforts expected from the international community to stabilise atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations eventuate. Importantly, without future reductions in the emissions of greenhouse gases, impacts will increase. The impacts of climate change may include a heightening of weather event intensity and sea level rise, which in combination could have far reaching effects for coastal recreation, beach safety service provision and surf life saving facilities and services. In this respect, the potential impacts of climate change represent a significant challenge for Surf Life Saving Australia (SLSA). Recognising the importance of this issue, SLSA undertook to develop a plan for adaptive action. This paper presents the outcomes of the resultant Climate Change Adaptation Road Map for SLSA. The Road Map represents an important for step for SLSA in their adaptive journey. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The feedback based integrated assessment model ANEMI_2 represents the society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system of the earth and biosphere. The ANEMI_2 model is based on the system dynamics simulation approach that (a) allows for the understanding and modeling of complex global change and (b) assists in the investigation of possible policy options for mitigating, and/or adapting to changing global conditions within an integrated assessment modeling framework. This paper outlines the ANEMI_2 model and its nine system components: climate, carbon cycle, land-use, population, food production, hydrologic cycle, water demand, water quality, and energy-economy. To evaluate market and nonmarket costs and benefits of climate change, the ANEMI_2 model integrates an economic optimization approach, with a focus on the international energy stock and fuel price, climate interrelations and temperature change. The model takes into account all major greenhouse gases (GHG) influencing global temperature and sea-level variation. Results from several scenarios (a) compare well with other information available in the scientific literature, (b) present comprehensive response of the society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system to the selected scenarios, and (c) confirm the support role of the ANEMI_2 model in the policy development and analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Environmental archives are useful tools for describing past and current climate variations and they provide an opportunity to assess the anthropogenic contribution in coastal ecological changes. Along the West African coast, few studies have focused on such archives in coastal ecosystems. The bloody cockle Senilia senilis, an intertidal bivalve mollusk species, is widely distributed from Western Sahara to Angola, and has been harvested by humans over thousands of years. Therefore, this species appears to be a good candidate for assessing past variations of key environmental parameters such as temperature, primary production, and Saharan dust advection within West African coastal ecosystems. In the present paper, we focused (i) on the identification of growth rhythms of S. senilis shells in Mauritania (Banc d''Arguin), and (ii) on the potential of these shells as (paleo-)environmental archives. The method we used combined environmental survey, sclerochronology, and geochemical analyses of aragonite samples. We showed that microgrowth line formation was controlled by a tidal forcing, leading to the formation of two lines per lunar day. Brightness and thickness of these microgrowth lines progressively decreased from spring to neap tides (fortnightly cycle). Lunar daily growth rates displayed strong seasonal variations, with highest values (>300μm per lunar day) recorded in summer. The oxygen isotope composition of S. senilis shells (δ18Oaragonite) accurately tracked seawater temperature seasonal variations, with a precision of 0.8°C. Finally, we discussed the opportunity to use Ba:Ca ratio in shells as a proxy for primary production or for Saharan dust transport. We also hypothesized that either Canary Currentvariations or, more probably, massive aerosol transfers from Sahara to the Atlantic Ocean could control uranium availability in coastal waters and explain the occurrence of U:Ca peaks within S. senilis shells. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The paper reports on a prototype urban metabolism approach to model carbon cycling through an urban neighborhood. The approach uses bottom-up modeling of urban form components (buildings, vehicles, people, plants) to assess the neighborhood-wide storage, intake and export (including atmospheric emissions) of carbon. Model inputs (land cover, population, building types, vegetation structure) were derived through integration of spatial and non-spatial data from remote sensing, statistical and cadastral sources. Results are quantified and illustrated as whole system and component carbon flows attributable to (i) buildings, (ii) transportation, (iii) humans (including food and waste), and (iv) vegetation and soils sectors. Three emissions reduction scenarios use these results as a baseline against which to illustrate the potential of familiar climate change planning strategies. These scenarios achieve per capita emission reductions targets of approximately 37%, 52% and 69% from that baseline. Concluding discussion considers the limits, replicability and potential of the approach for linking climate change to local planning. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Agro-meteorological metrics are indicators of weather determined environmental conditions on which agricultural management decisions are made. Metrics derived from an estimated future climate provide an opportunity to characterise the impacts of climate change on a wide range of agricultural systems, land use practices and ecosystem services. Such indications are vital for determining how changes in the biophysical environment can lead to land management and policy adaptations to achieve multiple objectives of financial viability, food security, biodiversity conservation and environmental sustainability. They provide valuable links between probable management adaptation responses and capacity for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. However, there are large uncertainties associated with projected future climates, including the climate models’ spatial scale of representation and those at which agro-meteorological metrics are applied. This paper describes the estimation of agro-meteorological metrics derived from observed weather and downscaled Regional Climate Model projection data for 12 sites in Scotland. Results show that projected changes to seasonal rainfall distribution, growing season length, soil moisture deficits and accessibility will be substantially different from the present climate. Fundamentally, the metrics indicate a substantial shift in land management requirements and potential need for substantial changes in agricultural systems and land use that will have implications across a wide range of research disciplines. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Wave climate is highly variable on the world''s coast and its temporal changes and extremes usually imply consequences like erosion or impacts to infrastructures. Alterations in wave climate were little addressed in the four IPCC reports although variations in wave climate may cause extensive coastal impacts. Changes are also often related to climate pattern variability. This variability as well as long-term trends has been an issue of research in recent years. In the region of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) an understanding of wave climate and its variability is scant. In this paper we use an extensively calibrated and validated wave reanalysis to describe the wave climatology in the region at different time scales and for scalar and directional wave parameters. Long-term changes are identified in the wave heights and mean direction of the energy flux shows high spatial variability. Correlation patterns of the mean significant wave height and direction of mean energy flux lead to the detection of prominent modes of influence of several climate indices. A wave climate type approach is also used to identify wave variability along the region that allows an identification of different wave climate types in terms of wave parameters and occurrence frequency. In line with the results, the influence of El Niño events shows a higher frequency of occurrence of certain sea-states with respect to non ENSO years. We also explore how climate change affecting storm patterns may be translated into a modification of sea-state occurrence and therefore implying different consequences for coastal zones depending on local wave propagation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: A broad category of cultural heritage objects are multilayer structures composed of organic, humidity-sensitive materials – wood, animal glue, paper, leather, bone or paints. They respond to variations in relative humidity (RH) in their environment by cyclically gaining and losing moisture, and consequently swelling and shrinking. Differences in the moisture response of the materials induce internal stresses in the individual layers of the structures, which cause objects to deform and crack. Polychrome wood is examined in detail. The cumulative physical damage of the design layer on wood due to repeated RH variations is quantified in terms of their magnitude and number of times they occur. The climatological risk index for accumulated, ‘fatigue’ damage is established, using a procedure to reduce irregular real-world climate histories into simple RH cycles of known damage impact. Using output from the Hadley Model (HadCM3) and simple transfer functions predicting indoor temperature and RH from outdoor climate, changes in the indoor climate through to 2100 were forecast for unheated buildings. European maps highlighting the areas in which painted wood may be significantly affected by climate change are presented. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents sedimentological, geochemical, and biological data from Lake Prespa (Albania/Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia/Greece). The 320 cm core sequence (Co1215) covers the last 17 ka calBP and reveals significant change in climate and environmental conditions on a local and regional scale. The sediment record suggests typical stadial conditions from 17.1 to 15.7 ka calBP, documented through low lake productivity, well-mixed conditions, and cold-resistant steppe catchment vegetation. Warming is indicated from 15.7 ka calBP with slightly increased in-lake productivity, gradual expansion of trees, and decreasing erosion through disappearance of local ice caps. Between 14.5 and 11.5 ka calBP relatively stable hydrological conditions are documented. The maximum in tree taxa percentages during the Bølling/Allerød interstadial (14.5–13.2 ka calBP) indicates increased temperatures and moisture availability, whereas the increase of cold-resistant open steppe vegetation taxa percentages during the Younger Dryas (13.2–11.5 ka calBP) is coupled with distinct colder and drier conditions. The Holocene sequence from 11.5 ka calBP indicates ice-free winters, stratification of the water column, a relatively high lake trophic level and dense vegetation cover over the catchment. A strong climate related impact on the limnology and physical parameters in Lake Prespa is documented around 8.2 ka through a significant decrease in productivity, enhanced mixing, strong decomposition and soil erosion, and a coeval expansion of herbs implying cool and dry climate conditions. Intensive human activity in the catchment is indicated from around 1.9 ka calBP. This multiproxy approach improves our understanding of short- and long-term climate fluctuations in this area and their impact on catchment dynamics, limnology, hydrology, and vegetation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: As climate change impacts are felt around the globe, people are increasingly exposed to changes in weather patterns, wildlife and vegetation, and water and food quality, access and availability in their local regions. These changes can impact human health and well-being in a variety of ways: increased risk of foodborne and waterborne diseases; increased frequency and distribution of vector-borne disease; increased mortality and injury due to extreme weather events and heat waves; increased respiratory and cardiovascular disease due to changes in air quality and increased allergens in the air; and increased susceptibility to mental and emotional health challenges. While climate change is a global phenomenon, the impacts are experienced most acutely in place; as such, a sense of place, place-attachment, and place-based identities are important indicators for climate-related health and adaptation. Representing one of the first qualitative case studies to examine the connections among climate change, a changing sense of place, and health in an Inuit context, this research draws data from a multi-year community-driven case study situated in the Inuit community of Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Canada. Data informing this paper were drawn from the narrative analysis of 72 in-depth interviews conducted from November 2009 to October 2010, as well as from the descriptive analysis of 112 questionnaires from a survey in October 2010 (95% response rate). The findings illustrated that climate change is negatively affecting feelings of place attachment by disrupting hunting, fishing, foraging, trapping, and traveling, and changing local landscapes—changes which subsequently impact physical, mental, and emotional health and well-being. These results also highlight the need to develop context-specific climate-health planning and adaptation programs, and call for an understanding of place-attachment as a vital indicator of health and well-being and for climate change to be framed as an important determinant of health. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We compare the performance of a recently proposed empirical climate model based on astronomical harmonics against all CMIP3 available general circulation climate models (GCM) used by the to interpret the 20th century global surface temperature. The proposed astronomical empirical climate model assumes that the climate is resonating with, or synchronized to a set of natural harmonics that, in previous works (), have been associated to the solar system planetary motion, which is mostly determined by Jupiter and Saturn. We show that the GCMs fail to reproduce the major decadal and multidecadal oscillations found in the global surface temperature record from 1850 to 2011. On the contrary, the proposed harmonic model (which herein uses cycles with 9.1, 10–10.5, 20–21, 60–62 year periods) is found to well reconstruct the observed climate oscillations from 1850 to 2011, and it is shown to be able to forecast the climate oscillations from 1950 to 2011 using the data covering the period 1850–1950, and vice versa. The 9.1-year cycle is shown to be likely related to a decadal Soli/Lunar tidal oscillation, while the 10–10.5, 20–21 and 60–62 year cycles are synchronous to solar and heliospheric planetary oscillations. We show that the IPCC GCM''s claim that all warming observed from 1970 to 2000 has been anthropogenically induced is erroneous because of the GCM failure in reconstructing the quasi 20-year and 60-year climatic cycles. Finally, we show how the presence of these large natural cycles can be used to correct the IPCC projected anthropogenic warming trend for the 21st century. By combining this corrected trend with the natural cycles, we show that the temperature may not significantly increase during the next 30 years mostly because of the negative phase of the 60-year cycle. If multisecular natural cycles (which according to some authors have significantly contributed to the observed 1700–2010 warming and may contribute to an additional natural cooling by 2100) are ignored, the same IPCC projected anthropogenic emissions would imply a global warming by about 0.3–1.2°C by 2100, contrary to the IPCC 1.0–3.6°C projected warming. The results of this paper reinforce previous claims that the relevant physical mechanisms that explain the detected climatic cycles are still missing in the current GCMs and that climate variations at the multidecadal scales are astronomically induced and, in first approximation, can be forecast. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The State of Kuwait is at the north-western corner of the Arabian Gulf. During the summer, the desert is extremely harsh with temperatures that can reach 44.7¡C, with dust storms, during a period where most annual plants become dormant. During the winter the air temperature is cool and pleasant and can drop to 8¡C [1]. Due to the harsh environment, Kuwait is facing many obstacles for barley production including aridity (water shortage, high temperature, high evaporation rate, low soil fertility), in addition to climate change. To overcome this situation Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research (KISR) has undergone various studies for the adaptation of barley under stressful conditions, and those studies that were performed in KISR showed that barley can be produced under harsh environment. This crop has showed positive adaptation strategies to a warmer and drier environment that is being noticed to occur during the past years. Three studies were performed that included a study that was done by taking 332 lines of barley and were tested under Kuwait''s environment resulting in 10 promising lines, another study was done by taking 141 lines of barley and were tested under similar condition resulting in 5 promising lines, On another hand a study with the collaboration with The Arab Center for the Studies of Arid Zones and Dry Lands (ACSAD) was performed, by studying 40 promising lines of barley focusing on planting time and stressful conditions resulting with a breed that tolerates drought and adapt to climatic change which indicated that the planting time of barley with the combination of stressful conditions of barley greatly effected. the yield production. This paper focus on five promising lines from the previous studies under two different irrigation regimes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: There is a current need to develop annual/decadal chronologies from periods of rapid climate change in order to understand the rate and timing of climate events and identify how other proxies either lead or lag this climate forcing. Annually-laminated or varved sediments are key proxies for understanding environmental change at such a scale. This paper presents the results of microscale analysis of glaciolacustrine varve sediments from Scotland and develops a new index called varve group, which ranks the number of pulses of sediment observed in the summer component of the varve. The varve group index is compared with data from the Greenland ice-core record and correspondence can be observed between the oxygen isotope records from Greenland during the latter part of GS-1 and the 515-year Lochaber varve group index. The processes that control the number of sediment pulses into the lake basin are discussed and we examine how these factors might control both the isotopic composition of the ice cores and varve group formation. It is proposed that the position of the sea ice in the North Atlantic may provide such a mechanism. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Little has challenged our understanding of climate change more so than the abruptness with which large-scale shifts in temperature occurred during the Late Quaternary. The causal mechanisms driving these rapid changes are poorly understood, largely due to the inherent difficulties of integrating palaeoclimate records which represents the key focus of the INTIMATE 1 [1] INTIMATE: INTegration of Ice, MArine and TErrestrial record is a core project of the INQUA Palaeoclimate Commission. Australasian and North Atlantic projects are currently active. This paper refers specifically to the objectives of the North Atlantic group. project. Tephrochronology has become central to the synchronisation goals of INTIMATE, the overall aim of which is to test the degree of climatic synchroneity in relation to these rapid climatic events. Here we present a European framework of 12 volcanic events that hold considerable promise for achieving the INTIMATE goals and effecting precise correlation of widespread palaeoarchives. These tephras are widespread and fall stratigraphically in close association to rapid climatic changes. We believe that these represent the most valuable tephras for the European INTIMATE project, but also highlight those that require urgent investigation to refine their geochemical signatures, eruptive context and chronological and stratigraphical uncertainties. For instance, new data are presented for the Saksunarvatn Ash that question the sole reliance on major-element analysis for tephra characterisation and highlights some of the challenges that remain for tephra studies. Accordingly, we outline a number of key recommendations relating to geochemical characterisation, data comparison, assessing the depositional integrity of tephra horizons as well as methods for improving age estimates – all of which will optimise the application of tephrochronology to meet the INTIMATE goals. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: Water companies in the United Kingdom have considered climate change in their water resources plans for more than a decade through studies funded by UK Water Industry Research (UKWIR). This paper presents an initial assessment of the impact of the UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) on river flows at a national scale for the 2020s under the A1B scenario and the implications for water resource planning. A daily hydrological modelling framework based on two conceptual model structures and the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology has been applied to 70 catchments across the UK. A Latin Hypercube Sampling approach was adopted to handle the probabilistic nature of UKCP09. Results show a decrease in mean annual flow over most of the UK, with negative median values of all monthly changes except in winter over the western and northern mountainous areas. Furthermore the results indicate a high likelihood of a significant decline in summer flows. An analysis of variance shows that the main uncertainty in river flow changes comes from the spread in climate projections. Finally results are found to be consistent with a previous UKWIR assessment based on individual projections from 6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the A2 scenario. The reduction in summer low-flows, critical for water resources, appears however more limited with UKCP09. Although most expected changes are within natural variability, the drier conditions overall and the greater spread of results with respect to previous assessments indicates a need for testing the robustness of water resource plans. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Achieving win-win outcomes in environment–development programs is a laudable goal, but frequently difficult to realize. In this paper we review the possibilities for win-win climate and development outcomes in programs that distribute improved cookstoves with the use of carbon finance. We show that improved cookstove technologies form an important, if asymmetrical, environment–development interface, and illustrate the mutually supported local (development) and global (climate change) benefits of continued improved stoves use—where success in one program area is directly tied to benefits in the other. We also describe how program results are highly contextual and that, in practice, there are a number of challenges to achieving effective ‘win-win’ outcomes—including cultural, financial, governance and technological barriers. While carbon finance provides an opportunity to fund scaleable and enforceable stove programs, it may also introduce mutually supported impediments—where progress towards one set of program objectives, directly compromises progress towards other objectives. Drawing on development debates for improved cookstove use, scientific reports on stove-based greenhouse gas reductions, and preexisting case studies of carbon and non-carbon financed cookstoves in Peru, Uganda and Cambodia, we conclude that the challenge for future carbon financed improved cookstove projects will be to leverage inherent symbioses between climate and development arenas in order to overcome mutually supported impediments. Achieving substantive win-win conditions will require further scholarly and practical engagement to tackle the many outstanding challenges and uncertainties reviewed in this essay. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to acquire a better insight into a landcover classification scheme which is suitable for representing the climatic properties of Asian megacities. Seoul, Republic of Korea, was used as a testbed. First, landcover classification was performed using Landsat 7 ETM+ using eight landcover types suitable for representing the climatic conditions of Seoul. As a next step, 10 land surface and thermal parameters were estimated for individual landcover classes. Finally, the suitability of the climatologically classified urban landcover scheme was analyzed in two ways. Firstly, the spatial distribution of land surface temperature (LST) was retrieved using the thermal band of Landsat 7 ETM+ and the retrieved LST values over eight landcover classes were statistically analyzed. Secondly, 24-h temperature changes based on both eight landcover classes and four classes were simulated using the meso-scale model MetPhoMod. These were compared with measurement data from 24 automatic weather stations in Seoul. This study showed that the eight landcover classification scheme is suitable for representing the climatic properties of Seoul, which is one of the Asian megacities. Moreover, the eight classes represent the thermal conditions better than the four conventional classes during nighttime, which implies that this eight landcover classification scheme can be useful to analyze the nocturnal urban heat island effect. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Global and regional climate models, such as those used in IPCC assessments, are the best tools available for climate predictions. Such models typically account for large-scale land-atmosphere feedbacks. However, these models omit local vegetation-environment feedbacks that may be crucial for critical transitions in ecosystems at larger scales. In this viewpoint paper, we propose the hypothesis that, if the balance of feedbacks is positive at all scales, local vegetation-environment feedbacks may trigger a cascade of amplifying effects, propagating from local to large scale, possibly leading to critical transitions in the large-scale climate. We call for linking local ecosystem feedbacks with large-scale land-atmosphere feedbacks in global and regional climate models in order to improve climate predictions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Examination of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; ~3.3 to 3.0Ma BP) provides an excellent opportunity to test the ability of climate models to reproduce warm climate states, thereby assessing our confidence in model predictions. To do this it is necessary to relate the uncertainty in model simulations of mPWP climate to uncertainties in projections of future climate change. The uncertainties introduced by the model can be estimated through the use of a Perturbed Physics Ensemble (PPE). Developing on the UK Met Office Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions (QUMP) Project, this paper presents the results from an initial investigation using the end members of a PPE in a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean model (HadCM3) running with appropriate mPWP boundary conditions. Prior work has shown that the unperturbed version of HadCM3 may underestimate mPWP sea surface temperatures at higher latitudes. Initial results indicate that neither the low sensitivity nor the high sensitivity simulations produce unequivocally improved mPWP climatology relative to the standard. Whilst the high sensitivity simulation was able to reconcile up to 6°C of the data/model mismatch in sea surface temperatures in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (relative to the standard simulation), it did not produce a better prediction of global vegetation than the standard simulation. Overall the low sensitivity simulation was degraded compared to the standard and high sensitivity simulations in all aspects of the data/model comparison. The results have shown that a PPE has the potential to explore weaknesses in mPWP modelling simulations which have been identified by geological proxies, but that a ‘best fit’ simulation will more likely come from a full ensemble in which simulations that contain the strengths of the two end member simulations shown here are combined. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The greatest attention to the UK wind climatology has focused upon mean windspeeds, despite a knowledge of gust speeds being essential to a variety of users. This paper goes some way to redressing this imbalance by analysing observed daily maximum gust speeds from a 43-station network over the period 1980–2005. Complementing these data are dynamically downscaled reanalysis data, generated using the PRECIS Regional Climate Modelling system, for the period 1959–2001. Inter-annual variations in both the observed and downscaled reanalysis gust speeds are presented, with a statistically significant (at the 95% confidence interval) 5% increase across the network in daily maximum gust speeds between 1959 and the early 1990s, followed by an apparent decrease. The benefit of incorporating dynamically downscaled reanalysis data is revealed by the fact that the decrease in gust speeds since 1993 may be placed in the context of a very slight increase displayed over the longer 1959–2001 period. Furthermore, the severity of individual windstorm events is considered, with high profile recent events placed into the context of the long term record. A daily cycle is identified from the station observations in the timing of the daily maximum gust speeds, with an afternoon peak occurring between 12:00–15:00, exhibiting spatial and intra-annual variations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Public deliberative platforms have been argued as potentially beneficial in fostering adaptive capacity to respond to climate change. However, little is known about the veracity of such claims, and indeed how deliberation and adaptive capacity can and do intersect. In response, this paper reports on findings from a project into public responses to climate change in the Australian Capital Region. It utilises quantitative analysis—in the form of Q methodology—and qualitative analysis, to compare discourses that emerged from individual scenario-based interviews with those that emerged at the end of a 4-day public deliberative process. It shows that while the scenario interviews had an impact on participants, this impact is not sustained. By contrast, the deliberative process gave rise to new discourses, one of which (labelled ‘Collective Action Imperative’) is argued as indicative of a potentially constructive personal and collective adaptive capacity. However, advocating deliberative processes still requires caution, as less adaptive discourses prevailed, suggesting strong governance signals and leadership are still essential for fostering a positive public response to the challenges of climate change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Social marketing is the systematic application of marketing concepts and techniques to achieve specific behavioural goals relevant to the social good. Social marketing approaches are becoming increasingly popular among governmental and non-governmental actors seeking to engage the public on climate change. The effectiveness of social marketing in achieving specific behavioural goals is empirically well-supported. However, in the first systematic critique of social marketing as a strategy for engaging the public on climate change, we present evidence that social marketing alone is insufficient to build support for the more ambitious policy changes and interventions that constitute a proportional response to climate change. In some circumstances, social marketing approaches may even be counterproductive. We describe some alternative approaches for engaging the public, which may provide governmental and non-governmental actors with additional or preferable tools for promoting public engagement with climate change. Given the scale of the challenge, it seems critical that those seeking to engage the public are equipped with the most effective strategies available – a goal that this paper seeks to contribute to. We conclude that acknowledging the limitations of social marketing – and exploring alternative methods of engaging the public – is an urgent task for climate change communication researchers and practitioners. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: This paper presents an analysis on the hydrological regimes from several rivers flowing from the western slope of the Andes Cordillera. We compiled a database of 40 unimpaired average monthly streamflow records located in central and southern Chile, spanning the region between latitudes 30°S and 40°S and the period between years 1961 and 2006. River categories encompass snowmelt, mixed and rainfall dominated watersheds. The water year hydrograph center of timing (CT) is used as an indicator of flow regime and as a proxy for streamflow distribution throughout the year. The CT for each river is correlated to local climatic variables such as seasonal temperature and precipitation, and to large-scale circulation indexes. We assess CT trends using the Mann–Kendall test for varying time windows within the study period. Overall results for the 1961–2006 period show a significant (95% confidence level) negative trend (CT date shifting towards earlier in the year) for 23 out of the 40 analyzed series. However, when studying time windows within the entire period there seems to be a break in the trend during the late 1970s, with positive or null changes for the latter half of the study period for most of the stations analyzed. We found that even though the CT is significantly correlated (r >0.5) to temperature indexes in the snowfed watersheds, there has been no significant change in CT timing for most of these watersheds despite documented warming on the region. CT for all types of watersheds present clear correlation to precipitation indexes (r >0.8), and we observed high and significant correlation between CT and ONI, SOI and MEI indexes for all the study region: higher (lower) precipitation amounts during El Niño (La Niña), rather than temperature variations, seem to be the most important factor controlling CT timing during these episodes. In order of importance, the CT showed higher correlation with annual precipitation amounts and timing, MEI, ONI and SOI, mean winter and spring temperature, and finally PDO. The detected trends are consistent only with trends in precipitation, as rivers that showed high correlation to temperature do not show any trend. These conclusions suggest that rivers on the region show a different response to temperature changes when compared to rivers of similar regime in the northern hemisphere, and that precipitation amount and timing are the source of most of the variability in streamflow timing for both snowmelt and rainfall dominated watersheds. Temperature induced variability in streamflow timing should be studied with more precise hydrological models, as the CT has a complex behavior due to multiple climatical dependencies. Studying such behavior using only historical data might be insufficient for drawing more precise conclusions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: The paper discusses a number of key conceptual issues related to the role of energy in development and its potential synergies and tradeoffs with climate change. The relationship between economic development and energy over time is discussed and illustrated by data from China, India and South Africa, and some other countries. It concludes that energy plays an important role as a productivity enhancing factor in economic development and in human well being. Several policy goals related to sustainable development, energy, and climate can be integrated. However, meeting all these policy goals requires a special effort and has significant cost implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This paper looks at the human health impacts from urban air pollution in India. Such pollution is especially harmful to poor people, so the co-benefits from global climate change policies in terms of reduced local air pollution can have positive equity impacts. Health impacts (mortality and morbidity) of PM10 pollution are quantified for different socio-economic groups in Delhi. The spatial PM10 concentration levels are overlaid with spatial socio-economic data. Improvement in air quality would result in bigger health benefits for the poor. Most measures that reduce PM10 pollutants also reduce CO2 emissions while simultaneously imposing more costs on the better-off. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Long-term high-resolution climate proxies are essential for understanding climate variability on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), where few long-term climate records are available. In this paper, we describe a summer (August) temperature reconstruction over the period 1385–2002 based on a tree-ring width chronology of Balfour spruce (Picea likiangensis var. balfouriana) on the southeastern TP created using the Regional Curve Standardization method. The reconstruction explains 44.7% of the variance in the instrumental temperature records during the calibration period (1962–2002), and captures temperature variability over a broad region of the TP. Warmer than average Augusts were found during the periods 1446–1494, 1509–1522, 1553–1567, 1797–1812, 1845–1905 and 1918–2002. Cooler than average Augusts occurred from 1385–1416, 1426–1445, 1495–1508, 1523–1552, 1568–1686, 1695–1718, 1725–1796, 1813–1844 and 1906–1917. A warming trend in the 20th century was unprecedented during the past six centuries. The reconstruction closely matched other tree-ring summer temperature reconstructions from neighboring regions, as well as patterns from ice-core δ18O data, and fluctuated in synchrony with Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4°C by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation strategy leading to 2°C increase by 2100. For the second scenario, uncertainties in the climate system imply that a global mean temperature increase of 3°C or more cannot be ruled out. Our analysis shows that, in many cases, adaptation and mitigation are not trade-offs but supplements. For example, the number of people exposed to increased water resource stress due to climate change can be substantially reduced in the mitigation scenario, but adaptation will still be required for the remaining large numbers of people exposed to increased stress. Another example is sea level rise, for which, from a global and purely monetary perspective, adaptation (up to 2100) seems more effective than mitigation. From the perspective of poorer and small island countries, however, stringent mitigation is necessary to keep risks at manageable levels. For agriculture, only a scenario based on a combination of adaptation and mitigation is able to avoid serious climate change impacts. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Seasonal forecasts have potential value as tools for the management of risks due to inter-annual climate variability and iterative adaptation to climate change. Despite their potential, forecasts are not widely used, in part due to poor performance and lack of relevance to specific users’ decision problems, and in part due to a variety of economic and behavioural factors. In this paper a theoretical model of perceived forecast value is proposed and applied to a stylized portfolio-type decision problem with wide applicability to actual forecast users, with a view to obtaining a more complete picture of the determinants of perceived value. The effects of user wealth, risk aversion, and perceived forecast trustworthiness, and presentational parameters, such as the position of forecast parameter categories, and the size of probability categories, on perceived value is investigated. Analysis of the model provides several strong qualitative predictions of how perceived forecast value depends on these factors. These predictions may be used to generate empirical hypotheses which offer the chance of evaluating the model''s assumptions, and suggest several means of improving understanding of perceived value based on qualitative features of the results. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The relevance of climate change for society seems indisputable: scientific evidence points to a significant human contribution in causing climate change, and impacts which will increasingly affect human welfare. In order to meet national and international greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets, there is an urgent need to understand and enable societal engagement in mitigation. Yet recent research indicates that this involvement is currently limited: although awareness of climate change is widespread, understanding and behavioral engagement are far lower. Proposals for mitigative ‘personal carbon budgets’ imply a need for public understanding of the causes and consequences of carbon emissions, as well as the ability to reduce emissions. However, little has been done to consider the situated meanings of carbon and energy in everyday life and decisions. This paper builds on the concept of ‘carbon capability’, a term which captures the contextual meanings associated with carbon and individuals’ abilities and motivations to reduce emissions. We present empirical findings from a UK survey of public engagement with climate change and carbon capability, focusing on both individual and institutional dimensions. These findings highlight the diverse public understandings about ‘carbon’, encompassing technical, social, and moral discourses; and provide further evidence for the environmental value-action gap in relation to adoption of low-carbon lifestyles. Implications of these findings for promoting public engagement with climate change and carbon capability are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Spatial planning is considered to be one of the main instruments available to govern adaptation to climate change and climate change impacts in spatial contexts. To meet this challenge spatial planning authorities require information concerning climate change impacts on a regional and local scale level. This paper presents an assessment framework for exploring the impacts of climate change in the context of spatial planning. The framework employs indicators for exposure to climate stimuli and sensitivity to climate change induced impacts. A particular focus was put on producing a comparable classification method with regard to the set of indicators. The application of the framework allows a comprehensive evaluation and comparison of the results for the impacts addressed. The framework was applied at a regional level for the whole of Germany. An indicator based model was developed assessing 11 potential impacts with relevance for the German spatial planning system. Relevant indicators of sensitivity and exposure were compared for a common assessment and spatial analysis of climate change induced potential impacts related to NUTS 3 districts. The impact analysis is applied for three different IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios (A2, B1, A1B) and three future periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100). The assessment provides new information on the spatial distribution of different potential impacts of climate changes in Germany. Regions with cumulative impacts of climate change are identified as hot spot areas which need urgent adaptation activities by spatial planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper investigates whether and to what extent a wide range of actors in the UK are adapting to climate change, and whether this is evidence of a social transition. We document evidence of over 300 examples of early adopters of adaptation practice to climate change in the UK. These examples span a range of activities from small adjustments (or coping), to building adaptive capacity, to implementing actions and to creating deeper systemic change in public and private organisations in a range of sectors. We find that adaptation in the UK has been dominated by government initiatives and has principally occurred in the form of research into climate change impacts. These government initiatives have stimulated a further set of actions at other scales in public agencies, regulatory agencies and regional government (and the devolved administrations), though with little real evidence of climate change adaptation initiatives trickling down to local government level. The sectors requiring significant investment in large scale infrastructure have invested more heavily than those that do not in identifying potential impacts and adaptations. Thus we find a higher level of adaptation activity by the water supply and flood defence sectors. Sectors that are not dependent on large scale infrastructure appear to be investing far less effort and resources in preparing for climate change. We conclude that the UK government-driven top-down targeted adaptation approach has generated anticipatory action at low cost in some areas. We also conclude that these actions may have created enough niche activities to allow for diffusion of new adaptation practices in response to real or perceived climate change. These results have significant implications for how climate policy can be developed to support autonomous adaptors in the UK and other countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: As investment and policy decision-makers grapple with the implications of climate change, benefits are seen in making available to them climate information at spatial and temporal scales that match the realms within which those decision-makers operate. For such an endeavour to have lasting economic and social benefits, however, the information must be carefully placed within the broader environmental, economic, social and institutional context within which decisions are made. This paper illustrates the challenges and opportunities of doing so, and uses information on the cost of inaction to illustrate the contributions that may come from advancements in climate modelling and information delivery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Several regions of the world have developed capability in providing services on climate information for risk management, but there are still gaps in service delivery due to inadequate information regarding the needs within the regions. This paper highlights the role of Regional Climate Outlook Forums, assesses the needs for some regions and extracts examples of how regional associations could benefit through the provision of better climate services. Problems are given for Africa, South-East Asia, South America, the Pacific and Europe. Different geographical climate features lead to different climate phenomena and in turn determine the type of climate delivery needs for risk management. Short discussions of regional socio-economic factors that shape the needs for climate information provide further context for the unique character of delivery services. Recommendations and future plans follow this assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate variability and climate change have a large impact on water resources since fundamental drivers of the hydrological cycle get affected. It is beneficial to understand the processes driving these changes, the sequences of the changes and their manifestation at different spatial and temporal scales. The purpose of this paper is to explore strategies to improve water management by tracking, anticipating and responding to seasonal to interannual climate variability and climate change. Sound water management is built upon long-term hydrological and meteorological monitoring networks that provide robust, accurate, timely and consistent data that can be used to develop and access tools needed to quantify uncertainty, forecast change and create the multi-phase, multi-level climate scenarios providing reasonable and relevant management of water resources. Several water management options might be considered in consultation with hydro-climatic and social scientists and stakeholders (decision-makers) to facilitate adaptation under climate variability and/or climate change and these are illustrated with suitable examples. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Recent advances in the description of the natural variability of extreme events associated with ocean climate variables include time-dependent variations within a certain time scale (year, season or month). These models allow incorporating smooth time variations of the parameters of the GEV distribution and also the influence of covariates (NAO, El Niño, etc.), providing more reliable results than traditional stationary models. In this paper, a sensitivity analysis of the model parameter estimates with respect to data (selected maxima, time of occurrence and covariates) is presented. The method shows how different data affects location, scale, and shape parameters as well as return level quantiles; gaining an insight into time-dependent generalized extreme value models and increasing the understanding of the models responses. The proposed method is applied to the study of the monthly maxima significant wave height at a particular location around the Brittany coast. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The International Energy Agency Energy Technologies Perspectives (ETP) model is used to assess the prospects for carbon abatement options, including carbon capture and storage, up to 2050. Three main scenarios are considered: a Baseline scenario with current energy policies, an accelerated technology scenario that seeks to return energy-related CO2 emissions in 2050 to their level in 2005, and a scenario for which CO2 emissions are reduced at 50% of current levels by 2050. To reach these emissions reduction targets, annual global CO2 emissions in the year 2050 must be reduced by 35 GtCO2 to 48 GtCO2 compared to the Baseline scenario. The analysis presented here shows that a broad portfolio of emissions reducing technologies will need to be deployed across all economic sectors of the global economy to reach these targets. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is one of the suite of technologies employed across the globe to reach these targets. CCS adoption occurs in many aspects of the global economy and accounts for 14–19% of all emissions reductions. The total amount of CO2 captured and stored in deep geologic reservoirs up to 2050 ranges between 5.1 GtCO2 and 10.4 GtCO2 in these two climate policy scenarios. Up to 2030, more than half of total CCS deployment takes place in OECD countries. After 2035, emerging economies account for more than half of total CCS use. This paper also demonstrates that as the climate policy becomes more stringent it will be necessary for CCS to deploy more extensively in many different industries outside of the electric power sector which often receives the most attention in discussions of CCS''s role in addressing climate change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]