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The "Dual Carbon" initiative is a two-stage carbon reduction goal proposed by China, with significant implications for global climate change mitigation. This article examines the impact of the "Dual Carbon" strategy on China's forestry development and explores how to leverage this strategy to facilitate the transformation and advancement of the forestry sector. Current review indicated that forestry has the advantage of achieving higher emission reduction targets at a low cost. Starting with an overview of the "Dual Carbon" strategy, this paper analyzes the carbon sequestration potential of plants and soil, and the challenges and opportunities faced by forestry development under this framework. Furthermore, we outline implementation pathways for forestry development, aiming to provide insights for the progress of China's forestry sector. Overall, it should be noted that the priority is to vigorously develop timber resources, and we also need to vigorously develop and protect forestry talent with the support of China's policies. By trapping into the carbon storage capabilities and leveraging carbon trading mechanisms of forests, a favorable ecological environment can be created, thus achieving the goal of carbon neutrality. Highlights: • Forest development and its carbon sinks, attributed to plant and soil have the potential in carbon sequestration process, thus helping China achieve carbon neutrality. • The supply of forest products and the balance of economic growth and environmental protection are the key difficulties under the "Dual Carbon" strategy. • Trading forest carbon sinks can boost China's sequestration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As global climate change becomes increasingly severe, energy technology innovation has become a key means of coping with the climate crisis and realizing green and low-carbon development. However, existing literature rarely examines the effects of carbon emission reduction policies based on the perspective of energy technology progress for both short-term economic fluctuations and long-term equilibrium. This paper introduces the fossil energy technology sector and the renewable energy technology sector into the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, and compares the effectiveness of the carbon emission cap policy, the fossil energy technology subsidy policy, and the renewable energy technology subsidy policy under the framework of China's carbon trading market in promoting macroeconomic growth and controlling pollutant emissions. We found that in long-term, the emission reduction effect of the carbon emission cap policy falls short of the other two policies, and subsidizing fossil fuel technologies is more cost-efficient comparatively. The government expenditure shock can all stimulate macroeconomic growth with crowding out of private investment and household consumption, whereas the energy technology research productivity shock leads to a decline in total output and an increase in renewable energy technology demand. In addition, pollutant emissions are pro-cyclical under the impact of total carbon policies and counter-cyclical under the impact of energy technology subsidy policies. This article constructs a multi-technology sectoral dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, expanding the research perspective and theoretical framework for evaluating carbon emission reduction policies. At the same time, it proves the importance of the government to implement the phased energy technology subsidy policy while implementing the carbon emission cap policy, which provides important enlightenment for the implementation and adjustment of carbon emission reduction policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To achieve carbon peak targets, realize carbon neutrality vision, and tackle global climate change, China must improve the carbon emission performance at the city level. Based on the carbon emission performance of 191 prefecture-level cities in China from 1997 to 2017, this paper analyses the evolution characteristics of urban carbon emission performance from three aspects: the overall spatial and temporal evolution, the differences according to both region and city size, and the differences among clusters categorized by carbon emission performance at the city level. This paper also reveals the impact of the social and economic transition on China's carbon emission performance. The results show that: (1) The overall level of carbon emission performance of Chinese cities is low, and there is a downward trend during the study period. The differences in carbon emission performance among cities are convergent, but there is a wide gap between high and low values. (2) The carbon emission performance of cities in eastern coastal areas is higher than that in non-coastal areas cities. Large urban agglomerations and economically developed regions, such as provincial capitals, are the agglomeration areas of high urban carbon emission performance values. (3) The carbon emission performance level of cities with similar sizes will converge. At the same time, such changes will enhance the differences among carbon emission performances at the city level within the same region. (4) Cities that belong to high urban carbon emission performance clusters are mainly distributed in the eastern region. Such cities are classified into large cities, supercities, and megacities. Compared with low urban carbon emission performance clusters, cities in high urban carbon emission performance clusters show a higher proportion in the medium-high level and high level of carbon emission performance. Moreover, cities in high urban carbon emission performance clusters are more likely to improve theirurban carbon emission performance. (5) The economic agglomeration effect, industrial structure adjustment and carbon intensity reduction have a significant impact on improving urban carbon emission performance. Population agglomeration has an incremental effect, and the anticipated benefits of environmental regulation have yet to be fully realized. The impacts of different clusters and different regions are variable. Finally, this paper advances policy enlightenment according to its research findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the statement of Chinese government on energy saving in 2020 at the United Nations General Assembly, carbon neutral was widely spread as a new concept. As a big country, China has the responsibility and obligation to make its own contribution to global climate change. This paper aims to explore and find effective ways for China to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. We identify the main factors affecting carbon emissions by STIRPAT model; combined with the scenario analysis, we divide the year 2020 to 2060 into three stages: year 2020–2030 is carbon peak stage, year 2030–2050 is rapid emission reduction stage, and year 2050–2060 is complete carbon neutralization stage. At each stage, three development models, high, medium, and low level, were established. There are a total of 27 different scenarios in three stages. A system dynamics model was established to simulate the effects of carbon emission factors and changes in carbon sinks in different scenarios. Finally, 8 paths were found which in line with Chinese current goal of achieving carbon neutrality with treating reach carbon peak in 2030 as an additional filter condition. Comparing per capita GDP levels in different scenarios, we eventually find that keeping economic development at a low level in the first stage, a high level in the second stage, and a medium level in the finally stage, the point where net carbon emissions are less than zero for the first time will appear between year 2056 and 2057. By then, the per capita GDP will reach 144,500 yuan (based on year 2000), nearly four times 2000's. In all, these findings are helpful for policymakers to implement reasonable policies to achieve carbon emission peaking and carbon neutral in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional processes on land-water-air interface carbon (C) budget and balance that interconnect the land and sea are in fact C neutrality critical processes within the earth system. It is therefore essential to quantitatively analyze synergistic land-water-air interface C transport and C exchange processes to gain a deep understanding of the important role that terrestrial ecosystems play in "missing C sink". This paper systematically analyzes global land-water-air interface C migration processes as well as C budget changes and associated impact mechanisms. It also investigates the important role that these C budgets and C cycling processes play in inland water bodies, respective to C budgets at the land-water-air interface. Moreover, this study reveals the regulatory mechanisms of land-water-air interface C budgets and balances under a background of global climate change. It also quantitatively evaluates the status of China's regional land-sea-air interface C budgets as well as the C sequestration potential of its lake systems. Finally, this study concludes that the explicit quantification of anthropogenic activity impacts on land-water-air interface C transport and exchange processes is of great significance to global C balances and C neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Achievement of national climate targets and the corresponding costs would entirely depend on regional actions within the country. However, because of substantial inequalities and heterogeneities among regions, especially in developing economies, aggressive or uniform actions may exacerbate inequity and induce huge economic losses, which in turn challenges the national climate pledges. Hence, this study extends prior research by proposing economically optimal strategies that can achieve national climate targets and ensure the greatest local and national benefits as well as regional equality. Focusing on the biggest developing country China, we find this strategy can avoid up to 1.54% of cumulative GDP losses for approaching carbon neutrality, and more than 90% of regions would obtain economic gains compared either with existing independently launched targets or with the uniform strategy that all regions achieve peak carbon emissions before 2030. We also provide optimal carbon mitigation pathways to regional peak carbon, carbon intensity and energy consumption. Aggressive or uniform actions on climate targets may exacerbate regional inequality and induce economic losses in China. The proposed collaborative strategy for carbon neutrality can avoid up to 1.54% of GDP losses while 90% of provinces would gain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many countries have taken stringent climate policies to minimize the risks by climate change. But these policies could burden households and the poor with the extra costs and threaten their wellbeing. However, the consequences of climate policies on poverty and welfare loss are seldom presented in stringent long-term climate change mitigation projections. Carbon pricing is a cost-effective approach; how it affects households varies among countries. This study investigated the distributional effects and poverty implications of carbon pricing in China during the transition towards carbon neutrality and the Paris Agreement's long-term goals. We assessed multiple poverty and equity standards in future scenarios with a newly developed integrated assessment model. It was found that climate change mitigation efforts would not greatly hinder poverty alleviation in China, with the poverty headcount under the $3.2/cap/day-threshold being less than 0.3 million people in 2050 in most scenarios. A carbon tax became a regressive factor mainly due to price increases in food and energy goods. This indicates that the distributional effects on carbon pricing should be considered. For example, supplementary policies that compensate for price changes, such as subsidies and early mitigation actions, that lead to modest price increases in the long term are worthy of consideration as valid instruments for the just transition towards the 2 °C or even 1.5 °C pathway. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's newly announced carbon neutrality goal manifests its determination to advance green and low-carbon development. The country aims to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Consequently, guidelines and action plans have been actively deployed and issued. The carbon neutrality commitment (vision) and its detailed deployment (action) would contribute to climate change mitigation and corporate market value. Therefore, we categorize the carbon neutrality-related events and analyze their impacts on the stock market from July 2020 to March 2021. The main findings are as follows: (1) The action event have increased the carbon neutrality-related stocks by 0.04%, while that of the vision event is – 0.003%, indicating that investors' confidence increases when the carbon neutrality commitment is accompanied by specific and detailed guidelines. (2) The impact of carbon neutrality announcement becomes more positive and significant after related events occur repeatedly. (3) Carbon neutrality-related power industry and state-owned enterprises are potential beneficiaries of this decarbonization goal. Our study supplements the literature on climate policy and its economic value, potentially contributing to the next stage of global decarbonization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon dioxide has a significant impact on global climate change due to its natural greenhouse effect. The objective and credible forecast of carbon emissions is very important for the government to formulate and implement the corresponding emission reduction targets. For controlling the growth of carbon emissions, Chinese government has put forward the low-carbon pilot policy and carbon trading policy. However, the existing grey models cannot measure the impact of policies and their interactions. In order to remedy the defect, a novel grey multivariable model based on dummy variables and their interactions is established. Two kinds of grey multivariable models and back propagation neural network model are chosen as comparison models to highlight that the introduction of dummy variables and their interactions plays an important part in improving the model performance. To verify the effectiveness, these four models are selected to simulate and predict the carbon emissions generated from primary energy consumption in Guangdong Province of China. The empirical results indicate that the mean absolute percentage errors of the novel model are 2.87% and 0.86%, respectively, which is significantly better than these three competing models. Finally, based on the outstanding performance of the novel model, it is chosen to forecast the fluctuating tendency of carbon emissions in the next 5 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clarifying the time-varying spillovers among pilot carbon emission permit trading markets in China is an important foundation for building the national carbon emission trading market. We calculate the dynamic spillover of carbon price return among the pilot carbon emission permit trading markets in China with the time-varying connectedness approach. The dataset is constructed from transaction data from seven pilot carbon markets in China during the period of June 23, 2014, to December 31, 2020. The quantitative analysis suggests that (i) Beijing and Chongqing carbon emission trading markets are the main spillover markets of carbon price returns, with strong pricing power, while the Guangdong and Tianjin markets are the main receivers of the price return spillover in other pilot carbon emission trading markets. (ii) The spillover effect among China's carbon markets has a strong policy orientation. The improvement and development of the carbon market driven by macroeconomic regulation and control policies can effectively improve the spillover ability of the carbon market, and the market trading activity, namely the volatility of the carbon price return rate, can amplify the spillover ability of the carbon market in the short term. (iii) There exist three types of price return spillover among China's pilot carbon emission trading markets, including central divergence, one-way chain transmission, and circular spillover. Along with the improvement of market operation efficiency, the central divergent type of spillover shifts to the pattern of circular spillover. It is necessary for the government to improve market efficiency and ensure the coordinated development of China's pilot carbon emission trading market and national carbon emission trading market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Forest ecosystems play an important role in carbon sequestration, climate change mitigation, and achieving China's target to become carbon (C) neutral by 2060. However, changes in C storage and net primary production (NPP) in natural secondary forests stemming from tree growth and future climate change have not yet been investigated in subtropical areas in China. Here, we used data from 290 inventory plots in four secondary forests [evergreen broad-leaved forest (EBF), deciduous and evergreen broad-leaved mixed forest (DEF), deciduous broad-leaved forest (DBF), and coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest (CDF)] at different restoration stages and run a hybrid model (TRIPLEX 1.6) to predict changes in stand carbon storage and NPP under two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Results: The runs of the hybrid model calibrated and validated by using the data from the inventory plots suggest significant increase in the carbon storage by 2060 under the current climate conditions, and even higher increase under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios. In contrast to the carbon storage, the simulated EBF and DEF NPP declines slightly over the period from 2014 to 2060. Conclusions: The obtained results lead to conclusion that proper management of China's subtropical secondary forests could be considered as one of the steps towards achieving China's target to become carbon neutral by 2060. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Market-based emission trading schemes (ETSs) are widely used in the developed world to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which are perceived as the source of global climate change. China, as the largest GHG emitter in the world, is committed to introducing an ETS to reduce emissions. Here we reviewed existing ETSs and sustainable energy policies worldwide as well as China's pilot programs. These studies were conducted in order to propose recommendations for national initiatives and strategies to be implemented in China in relation to climate change adaptation and mitigation. It has been shown that setting emission caps in the context of a national emission intensity target is difficult. However, implementing reliable systems for measurement, reporting, and verification of emissions are essential. A two-level management system (by central and provincial governments) for carbon trading is beneficial to ensure uniform standards and compliance while maintaining flexibility. Persistent political support from, and effective coordination of, policies by the government are crucial. In addition, strengthening of institutional innovation, and the establishment of a national GHG emissions information system, are of equal importance. This vital information could provide a great opportunity for China to re-define its economic growth and take global leadership in combatting climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]