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This paper, using a computable general equilibrium model with highly disaggregated household groups, analyses the distributional impact of a carbon tax in a developing economy. Indonesia, one of the largest carbon emitters among developing countries, is utilized as a case study in this paper. The result suggests that, in contrast to most industrialised country studies, the introduction of a carbon tax in Indonesia is not necessarily regressive. The structural change and resource reallocation effect of a carbon tax is in favour of factors endowed more proportionately by rural and lower income households. In addition, the expenditure of lower income households, especially in rural areas, is less sensitive to the price of energy-related commodities. Revenue-recycling through a uniform reduction in the commodity tax rate may reduce the adverse aggregate output effect, whereas uniform lump-sum transfers may enhance progressivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article conducts a comprehensive analysis of climate change education within the framework of climate change policy and education policy in Indonesia. Employing thematic analysis on twenty climate change policy texts, twelve K-12 education policy texts, and seventeen expert interview transcripts, our study explores the congruency of climate change education in both policy domains. Despite the critical need for coordinated policies to optimise the design and implementation of climate change education, the analysis reveals a significant discrepancy between Indonesia's climate change policy and education policy regarding this crucial aspect. Four key themes emerged: the marginalisation of climate change education, the lack of synergies between relevant policies and stakeholders, the predominant economic values, and the optimistic future outlook. The study also assesses the alignment between Indonesia's approach and global trends in climate change education. The findings shed light on critical areas for improvement and development in the integration of climate change education within the Indonesian policy landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a detailed description of how ENSO events affect seasonal and extreme precipitation over Indonesia. Daily precipitation data from 97 stations across Indonesia covering the period from 1981 to 2012 were used to investigate the effects of El Niño and La Niña on extreme precipitation characteristics including intensity, frequency and duration, as defined based on a subset of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Although anomalous signals in these three indices were consistent with those of total rainfall, anomalies in the duration of extremes [i.e., consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD)] were much more robust. El Niño impacts were particularly prominent during June-July-August (JJA) and September-October-November (SON), when anomalously dry conditions were experienced throughout the country. However, from SON, a wet anomaly appeared over northern Sumatra, later expanding eastward during December-January-February (DJF) and March-April-May (MAM), creating contrasting conditions of wet in the west and dry in the east. We attribute this apparent eastward expansion of a wet anomaly during El Niño progression to the equatorial convergence of two anti-cyclonic circulations, one residing north of the equator and the other south of the equator. These anti-cyclonic circulations strengthen and weaken according to seasonal changes and their coupling with regional seas, hence shaping moisture transport and convergence. During La Niña events, the eastward expansion of an opposite (i.e., dry) anomaly was also present but less prominent than that of El Niño. We attribute this to differences in regional ocean—atmosphere coupling, which result in the contrasting seasonal evolution of the two corresponding anomalous cyclonic circulations and in turn suggests the strong nonlinearity of El Niño and La Niña responses over the Maritime Continent. Based on the seasonal behaviour of anomalous CDD and CWD, we propose five sub-divisions of the Indonesian region for both El Niño and La Niña. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study analyzes the recently summarized data on surface air temperature in the east of North America, in Western and Eastern Europe, and in India before and after the Tambora volcano eruption occurred in Indonesia in 1815. The well-known fact is proved that no cooling occurred after the Tambora eruption in the east of Europe and in India. It is found that the insignificant (at the decadal timescale) cooling was observed in all analyzed regions: it started earlier than the Tambora eruption and than the stronger eruption of another volcano in 1809. The paper demonstrates that it is impossible to reveal cause-effect relations between the general cooling and the eruption of the above volcanoes based on the available data on surface air temperature. Cold snaps that follow the later volcanic eruptions were identified by meteorologists using the data of the whole network of meteorological observations established in the second half of the 19th century. However, these cold snaps cannot be detected using data on surface air temperature only. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is associated with more frequent extreme weather conditions and an overall increase in temperature around the globe. Its impact on individual ecosystems is not yet well known. Long-term data documenting climate and the temporal abundance of food for primates are scarce. We used long-term phenological data to assess climate variation, fruit abundance and home range sizes of the endemic and Critically Endangered crested macaques (Macaca nigra) in Tangkoko forest, Sulawesi, Indonesia. Between January 2012 and July 2020, every month, we monitored 498 individual trees from 41 species and 23 families. We noted each tree's phenophase and assessed variation in climate (daily temperature and rainfall) and fruit abundance. We also investigated whether individual trees of known key food sources for macaques (New Guinea walnut trees, Dracontomelon spp, two species, N = 10 individual trees; fig trees, Ficus spp, four species, N = 34, and spiked peppers, Piper aduncum, N = 4) showed regular and synchronised fruiting cycles. We used 2877 days of ranging data from four habituated groups to estimate home ranges between January 2012 and July 2020. We created models to evaluate the impact of ecological factors (temperature, rainfall, overall fruit abundance, fig abundance). We found that the temperature increased in Tangkoko forest, and the overall fruit abundance decreased across the study. Top key fruits showed different trends in fruiting. Figs seem to be present year-round, but we did not detect synchrony between individuals of the same species. The macaque home ranges were about 2 km2. Monthly temperature was the main predictor of home range size, especially in disturbed forest with previously burnt areas. This information will help to further monitor changes in the macaques' habitat, and better understand ranging and foraging strategies of a Critically Endangered species and hence contribute to its conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The benefits of integrated approaches to climate risk and adaptation studies are increasingly recognised. Thus, there is an increasing need for practical examples of such work in the literature. This paper describes a practical application of an integrated framework for climate change impacts on regional surface water resources and the urban water system in the Mamminasata metropolitan region, Indonesia. Two main features of the framework are: the integration of both climate and other physical and social considerations in the assessment; and the high stakeholder involvement before, during and after project implementation. Although the study is concerned with the Mamminasata region, the overall methodology is transferable to any region in Indonesia or internationally. Key outcomes from this study are: (1) creation of information for Mamminasata planners and water resources managers for when, and under what conditions, the water supply may or may not meet the demand; (2) a clear consensus and shared learning of the problems facing the region among cross-institutional stakeholders; and (3) identification of adaptation options for the urban water system and knowledge gaps and strategies for their implementation. Results of stakeholders' surveys conducted at the mid-point and at the end of the study indicate that these outputs will provide valuable guidance for future planning and management of Mamminasata regional water resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last 50 years, the cost of natural disasters has increased globally and in Indonesia (EM-DAT ). We therefore need more systematic efforts in trying to reduce disaster risks. In 2005, the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction created the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 2005-2015: 'Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities', in order to enable a more systematic planning, implementation and evaluation of disaster risk reduction (DRR) activities. In this paper, we examine Indonesia's success in improving DRR by reviewing the country's progress in implementing the HFA Priorities for Actions. This includes an analysis of the drivers, challenges and emerging issues in building resilience to natural hazards. The study is undertaken through literature reviews and interviews with 26 representatives of key organisations in DRR and climate change adaptation (CCA) in Indonesia. Our findings indicate that the building disaster resilience in Indonesia has been, to a large extent, driven by the existence of the necessary regulatory policies and frameworks and the participation of various non-government stakeholders. Impediments to process include a lack of capacity and capability for DRR at the local government level, a lack of systematic learning and a lack of commitment from government to mainstream DRR into broader development agendas. Emerging pressing issues that are likely to challenge future resilience building activities include the integration of DRR and CCA and urban risk governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation to climate-change impacts requires understanding of where impacts are to be expected and what their magnitude may be. Adaptation funds are only a limited resource for helping affected parties in coping with climate-change impacts. The application of suitable methods helps to determine the recipients of adaptation aid. A quantification of impacts based on different impact analyses can aid in taking on various perspectives on the same problem in order to identify the appropriate perspective for the given decision-making context or for identifying impact patterns. Once executed, this prioritizes adaptation needs and finding a suitable allocation rule, given the policy makers perception of the decision-making context. The study introduces a set of methods of spatially explicit, sub-national (province level), and country-wide impact analyses regarding inundation impacts on agricultural areas for four important food crops in Indonesia. These methods are applied to a 1 and 2 m sea-level rise scenario and include a novel approach for impact analyses, data envelopment analysis, which is not widely used in environmental studies as of yet. Based on the given case study, the paper demonstrates the applicability of these methods and identifies impact patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is already affecting ecosystems in protected forest areas. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted its impacts will accelerate rapidly over the coming decades. The components of vulnerability have been defined as exposure, sensitivity and the capacity to adapt to climate change. Vulnerability, however, is not an easy concept for policy makers, local communities and other affected stakeholders to understand. This paper illustrates the use of participatory processes in understanding climate change adaptation and defines indicators for assessing the vulnerability of the Javan rhino's national park habitat in Indonesia. The processes generated local vulnerability indicators, organised hierarchically as principles, criteria and indicators (PCIs). While vulnerability principles and criteria were pre-determined and globally defined, the indicators were designed to address the local context. We found the PCIs to be practical tools for communicating vulnerability and for multi-stakeholder dialogues on vulnerability to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biomass burning is an integral part of the Earth system, influencing and being influenced by global climate conditions, vegetation cover and human activity. Fire has long been associated with certain vegetation types and land uses in Southeast Asia, but has increasingly affected forests in Indonesia over the last 50 years or so, and peat swamp forests in particular during the last two to three decades. The role of humans, as igniters of fires and as contributors to the conditions that enable fires once ignited to spread widely, is discussed. Other factors, notably the involvement of anomalous climate conditions linked to variability in the Indian and Pacific oceans, are also considered. Global warming and changes in landuse could result in biomass burning becoming more frequent in the future, threatening biodiversity and human health and leading to positive feedbacks with climate change. Deliberate action is required to break a developing disequilibrium within the Earth system: incentives currently being considered under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change aimed at curbing climate change-causing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation could help mitigate biomass burning, while the effective management of biochar, a stable form of carbon produced from the incomplete combustion of organic matter, by farmers in Southeast Asia, and in other regions where biomass burning is common, could help in carbon sequestration. The paper concludes by stressing that in order to be effective any action needs to recognise the full range of environmental and human factors underpinning biomass burning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest and land fires are not new to the landscapes of Southeast Asia. Nevertheless, strikingly different perspectives persist about the significance of fires in the tropics to environmental changes and human well-being and consequently how they should be managed. Our synthesis of papers in this special issue suggests both trade-offs and complementarities in various policy responses with differing objectives. There are, however, at least three domains with high potential of meeting multiple objectives. First, is through identification, and improved management, of ecosystems vulnerable to fire under current and future climate. Agriculture, forestry and human settlements on peat land areas in Indonesia are candidates for such a focus. Second, is through building adaptive capacities to manage fire and related land and water resources. Investments in capacity at multiple levels are needed, but particularly at fairly local levels where stakeholders have strong incentives to manage fires appropriate to local contexts. Third, is through building awareness that fire management does not universally equate to fire suppression. Severe smoke haze episodes, for example, are also a result of timing of fires, and some fire-adapted ecosystems may depend on fire to persist. Finally, we emphasize that effective fire management is unlikely to be realized without greater engagement by research and policy with stakeholders in thoroughly exploring the full range of land and fire management options. Negotiation, compensation and trade-offs are probably inevitable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Joint Implementation (JI) and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) have been established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Kyoto Protocol as project-based instruments to mitigate greenhouse gases of the industrialised countries to the levels imposed by their Kyoto commitments. An outstanding issue associated with the implementation of these two flexibility mechanisms concerns the choice of appropriate baseline for calculating the emission reductions. This paper applies a computerised tool that constructs and compares different types of standardised baselines for projects in Indonesia, Panama and the Russian Federation. It evaluates the effects of the selection of different baselines to the environmental integrity of the two Kyoto mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Using 'higher-tier' emission factors in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories is essential to improve quality and accuracy when reporting carbon emissions and removals. Here we systematically reviewed 736 data across 249 sites (published 2003–2020) to derive emission factors associated with land-use change in Indonesian mangroves blue carbon ecosystems. Results: Four management regimes—aquaculture, degraded mangrove, regenerated mangrove and undisturbed mangrove—gave mean total ecosystem carbon stocks of 579, 717, 890, and 1061 Mg C ha−1 respectively. The largest biomass carbon stocks were found in undisturbed mangrove; followed by regenerated mangrove, degraded mangrove, and aquaculture. Top 100-cm soil carbon stocks were similar across regimes, ranging between 216 and 296 Mg C ha−1. Carbon stocks between 0 and 300 cm varied significantly; the highest values were found in undisturbed mangrove (916 Mg C ha−1), followed by regenerated mangrove (803 Mg C ha−1), degraded mangrove 666 Mg C ha−1), and aquaculture (562 Mg C ha−1). Conclusions: Using deep layer (e.g., 300 cm) soil carbon stocks would compensate for the underestimation of surface soil carbon removed from areas where aquaculture is widely practised. From a project perspective, deep layer data could secure permanence or buffer potential leakages. From a national GHG accounting perspective, it also provides a safeguard in the MRV system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mangrove forests are globally significant blue carbon sinks that remain critically under-governed and under threat. In Indonesia, the rapid rate of mangrove loss over the past three decades, combined with the promise of these carbon-dense ecosystems to mitigate climate change impacts, has catalyzed the world's largest replanting program. Institutional and ideological divisions between advocates of conservation and commodification approaches to mangrove governance, however, have historically compromised Indonesia's ability to meet its climate commitments. Market valuations of mangroves as blue carbon have further complicated their governance by opening up new opportunities for environmental collaboration and resource exploitation. Drawing on the concept of leverage points, this study examines how plural valuations of mangroves might be applied to sustainability interventions in Riau Province, Indonesia. Using document analysis and interviews with public, private and societal stakeholders, we examine how sector-level values translate into collaborative actions through mangrove partnerships. We posit that integrating indigenous knowledge and place-based values into mangrove policy development could help to address the existing conservation–commodification divide. As plural values are mutually transformative, we argue that recognizing areas of strategic compatibility creates space for flexible and adaptive cross-sector cooperation. Such recognition is especially important for mangrove communities, whose marginal socioeconomic position reinforces their need to remain ideologically and tactfully open to areas of compatibility with shifting market valuations, both to sustainably develop locally important resources and to avoid livelihood capture by predatory development interests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study is to investigate the impacts of economic growth, energy consumption, and the economic globalization process on ecological footprints in the top 10 countries that cause the highest carbon dioxide emissions in the world. The analyses were conducted on annual observations from 1970 to 2017 (a different range for each country) employing the Fourier bootstrap ARDL cointegration method developed by Yilanci et al. (2020) and the Fourier bootstrap Toda–Yamamoto causality method developed by Nazlioglu et al. (2016). In the cointegration approach, an additional F-test provides better insights to define degenerate cases and the bootstrap test performance is powerful than the asymptotic test. In this context, Fourier bootstrap ARDL test results revealed that there is a long-term relationship between ecological footprint and economic growth, energy consumption, and economic globalization in seven countries—namely, Canada, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. According to long-run coefficients, in general, economic growth and energy consumption have negative effects on ecological footprint, whereas economic globalization has a positive effect on the ecological footprint for these countries. To evaluate it more specifically, (i) real gross domestic product per capita has positive and statistically significant coefficients on the ecological footprint in China, India, Indonesia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, except for Germany. (ii) Energy consumption per capita also has positive and statistically significant coefficients on the ecological footprint in China, Germany, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, except for Indonesia. (iii) Finally, the economic globalization process has negative and statistically significant coefficients on the ecological footprint in Canada, China, India, and Saudi Arabia, except for Indonesia. On the other hand, Fourier bootstrap Toda–Yamamoto causality test results show a mixed character. Governments should take action to reduce the negative effects of the climate crisis as immediate as possible, which has been widely expressed recently. Among these, increasing the use of renewable energy sources and new carbon-free technologies in the production process appears as important policy tools. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ocean warming has been affecting marine ecosystems over the past few decades. The signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch data has been identified through a variety of methods, one of which is the mean temperature of the catch (MTC) index. The MTC is derived from the average temperature preference of fished species weighted by their contribution to annual catches. Here, we used MTC to explore the fisheries catch responses to warming, from 1950 to 2016, along a latitudinal gradient in the western Pacific Ocean, from 37° N, via 2.5° S in the central western Pacific, to 36° S. The tropicalization of catches in a given geographic space, i.e., the increased catch of species with affinity to warmer waters, as a result of increasing sea temperature and the associated poleward migration of species, rather than any large-scale oceanographic variability, was apparent through the increasing MTC at higher latitudes. In particular, MTC in temperate Japan increased by 0.33 °C per decade over the time series. The MTC in subtropical/temperate southeast Australia increased by 0.24 °C per decade over the full time period and by 1.24 °C per decade after 2002. The observed MTC increase was caused by the increasing dominance of thermophilous (preferring warmer waters) over psychrophilous (preferring cooler waters) taxa in the catches in these waters. On the other hand, the MTC in tropical Indonesian waters, as well as the ratio of thermophilous to psychrophilous taxa, showed a gentle yet consistent decrease of 0.05 °C per decade over the full time period. This finding supports the tropicalization hypothesis, given the limited scope for further tropicalization of catches in the already tropical ecosystem of Indonesia. Ocean warming has indeed been altering the distribution of marine organisms, particularly in temperate ecosystems as thermophilous taxa become more abundant, while psychrophilous taxa abundance decreases. Tropicalization impacts fisheries and catch composition and is, therefore, expected to cause conflicts among fishers and challenge fisheries management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) is an important component of the upper cell of the global overturning circulation that provides a low-latitude pathway for warm, fresh waters from the Pacific to enter the Indian Ocean. Variability and changes of the ITF have significant impacts on Indo-Pacific oceanography and global climate. In this paper, the observed features of the ITF and its interannual to decadal variability are reviewed, and processes that influence the centennial change of the ITF under the influence of the global warming are discussed. The ITF flows across a region that comprises the intersection of two ocean waveguides—those of the equatorial Pacific and equatorial Indian Ocean. The ITF geostrophic transport is stronger during La Niñas and weaker during El Niños due to the influences through the Pacific waveguide. The Indian Ocean wind variability associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in many years offsets the Pacific ENSO influences on the ITF geostrophic transport during the developing and mature phases of El Niño and La Niña through the Indian Ocean waveguide, due to the co-varying IOD variability with ENSO. Decadal and multi-decadal changes of the geostrophic ITF transport have been revealed: there was a weakening change from the mid-1970s climate regime shift followed by a strengthening trend of about 1Sv every 10 year during 1984–2013. These decadal changes are mostly due to the ITF responses to decadal variations of the trade winds in the Pacific. Thus, Godfrey’s Island Rule, as well as other ITF proxies, appears to be able to quantify decadal variations of the ITF. Climate models project a weakening trend of the ITF under the global warming. Both climate models and downscaled ocean model show that this ITF weakening is not directly associated with the changes of the trade winds in the Pacific into the future, and the reduction of deep upwelling in the Pacific basin is mainly responsible for the ITF weakening. There is a need to amend the Island Rule to take into account the contributions from the overturning circulation which the current ITF proxies fail to capture. The implication of a weakened ITF on the Indo-Pacific Ocean circulation still needs to be assessed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study aims to assess the effects of a forestation program and climate change on the annual and seasonal water balance of the Bogowonto catchment (597 km2) in Java, Indonesia. The catchment study is rare example in Indonesia where forestation has been applied at the catchment level. However, since the forestation program has been initiated, evaluations of the program only focus on the planting area targets, while the environmental success e.g., impacts on the hydrological processes have never been assessed. This study used a calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to diagnose the isolated and combined effects of forestation and climate change on five water balance components, namely streamflow (Q), evapotranspiration (ET), surface runoff (Qs), lateral flow (Ql) and base flow (Qb). Results: The results show that from 2006 to 2019, forest cover has increased from 2.7% to 12.8% of the total area, while in the same period there was an increase in the mean annual and seasonal temperature, rainfall, and streamflow. Results of SWAT simulations show that changes in the mean annual and seasonal water balance under the forestation only scenario were relatively minor, while changes were more pronounced under the climate change only scenario. Based on the combined impacts scenario, it was observed that the effects of a larger forest area on the water balance were smaller than the effects of climate change. Conclusions: Although we found that forestation program has minor impacts compared to that of climate change on the hydrological processes in the Bogowonto catchment, seasonally, forestation activity has decreased the streamflow and surface runoff during the wet season which may reduce the risk of moderate floods. However, much attention should be paid to the way how forestation may result in severe drought events during the dry season. Finally, we urge the importance of accounting for the positive and negative effects in future forestation programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change will have a significant impact on the water cycle and will lead to severe environmental problems and disasters in humid tropical river basins. Examples include river basins in Sumatra Island, Indonesia, where the coastal lowland areas are mostly composed of peatland that is a wetland environment initially sustained by flooding from rivers. Climate change may alter the frequency and magnitude of flood inundation in these lowland areas, disturbing the peatland environment and its carbon dynamics and damaging agricultural plantations. Consequently, projecting the extent of inundation due to future flooding events is considered important for river basin management. Using dynamically downscaled climate data obtained by the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model (NHRCM), the Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model was applied to the Batanghari River Basin (42,960 km2) in Sumatra Island, Indonesia, to project the extent of flood inundation in the latter part of the twenty-first century. In order to obtain reasonable estimates of the extent of future flood inundation, this study compared two bias correction methods: a Quantile Mapping (QM) method and a combination of QM and Variance Scaling (VS) methods. The results showed that the bias correction obtained by the QM method improved the simulated flow duration curve (FDC) obtained from the RRI model, which facilitated comparison with the simulated FDC using reference rainfall data. However, the high spatial variability observed in daily and 15-day rainfall data remained as the spatial variation bias, and this could not be resolved by simple QM bias correction alone. Consequently, the simulated extreme variables, such as annual maximum flood inundation volume, were overestimated compared to the reference data. By introducing QM-VS bias correction, the cumulative density functions of annual maximum discharge and inundation volumes were improved. The findings also showed that flooding will increase in this region; for example, the flood inundation volume corresponding to a 20-year return period will increase by 3.3 times. River basin management measures, such as land use regulations for plantations and wetland conservation, should therefore consider increases in flood depth and area, the extents of which under a future climate scenario are presented in this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geoengineering has generally been a research province of the Global North. Developing countries, especially climate-vulnerable regions such as Southeast Asia, have made few contributions to a critical understanding of geoengineering. To deliver more climate action, we need to amplify Global South voices in this debate. This essay summarizes the deliberations of a workshop that sought to build an inter- and multi-disciplinary knowledge community on the critical study of geoengineering in Southeast Asia. Held in Indonesia, this workshop involved discussions among 17 social science researchers, climate modelers, environmental policy analysts, and civil society actors from the region. On the basis of in-depth discussions, research themes were developed to help guide future geoengineering research in Southeast Asia. These themes included: biochar techniques for carbon capture and storage; expansive modeling of regional impacts of stratospheric aerosol injection, especially for transboundary water bodies; national and regional governance implications of carbon dioxide removal and solar radiation management; and critical social study of these technologies. The workshop participants called for support for regional research on geoengineering through new funding opportunities and increased international collaboration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: International awareness of the impact of global warming and climate change is increasing. Developing countries face the task of achieving sustainable economic growth while also improving the efficiency of their energy consumption. The E7 countries (Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, People's Republic of China, Russia, and Turkey) are all highly concerned with the promotion of carbon-emission-reduction strategies. Methods: This research uses a bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test with structural breaks to examine the cointegration and causality relations between economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the E7 countries. Results: There is no cointegration between economic growth, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions for People's Republic of China, Indonesia, Mexico, and Turkey. Evidence of cointegration is found for Brazil when CO2 emissions are the dependent variable and for India and Russia when energy consumption is the dependent variable. For all of the E7 countries except Indonesia, short-run Granger causality was found to exist from energy consumption to CO2 emissions and from economic growth to CO2 emissions for Brazil, India, Mexico, and People's Republic of China. Short-run Granger causality was also found from economic growth to energy consumption for Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, and People's Republic of China, and from CO2 emissions to energy consumption for all E7 countries. Conclusions: The results consistently show that energy consumption is the main cause of CO2 emissions, which has led to the emergence of global warming problems. Increases in CO2 emissions compel the E7 countries to develop sound policies on energy consumption and environmental pollution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Palm oil is very important. This relates to the large economic return and the negative environmental impact threatening the sustainability of the industry. Malaysia is the second largest producer after Indonesia and reaps the benefits and faces some of the problems. Oil palms (OP) in Malaysia are susceptible to basal stem rot (BSR) by Ganoderma boninense, of major concern to sustainability. The methods for assessing this disease have not changed for decades and are prime candidates for Agriculture 4.0 technology. Application of modern climate computer models using big data sets and providing suitability for growth data for OP, indicate how OP will be affected detrimentally by climate change (CC) until the year 2100, which are employed herein to provide disease assessments. This is a novel approach. The methods provide information to assess the sustainability of OP in Malaysia. CC-related increased BSR are from i) an increase in virulence of G. boninense and ii) unsuitable climate making OP less resistant to BSR. Comparisons of regions for initial infection rates and OP climate suitability over 80 years are made herein. CC will not affect the level of the disease greatly until after 2050 from reduced OP resistance but the situation will deteriorate between 2070 and 2100. Remediation methods to ameliorate CC effects on OP and concomitantly reducing BSR are required. BSR will become increasingly more detrimental to the palm oil industry in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To accurately quantify tropical peatlands' contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions, and to understand how emissions from peat may change in the future, long-term measurements over seasons and years are needed. Sampling soil respiration over a range of temperature and moisture conditions in the field is valuable for understanding how peat soil emissions may respond to climate change. We collected monthly measurements of total soil respiration, moisture and temperature from forest and smallholder oil palm plantations on peat in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. Our study period, from January 2014 through September 2015, covered wet-dry transitions during 1 year with relatively normal precipitation and one El Niño year. Oil palm plots, with lower water table, had 22% higher total soil respiration (0.71 ± 0.04 g CO2 m−2 h−1) than forest plots (0.58 ± 0.04 g CO2 m−2 h−1) over the entire monitoring period. However, during the El Niño event in September 2015, despite overall lower water table levels in oil palm plots, total soil respiration was higher in forest (1.24 ± 0.20 g CO2 m−2 h−1) than in oil palm (0.90 ± 0.09 g CO2 m−2 h−1). Land-use change continues to be an important driver of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from Indonesian peatlands. However, the stronger response of total soil respiration to extreme drought in forest indicates the potential importance of climate regime in determining future net carbon (C) emissions from these ecosystems. Future warming and increased intensity of seasonal drying may increase C emissions from Indonesian peatlands, regardless of land-use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous research has shown that the production of Arabica coffee ( Coffea arabica), the main source of high-quality coffee, will be severely affected by climate change. Since large numbers of smallholder farmers in tropical mountain regions depend on this crop as their main source of income, the repercussions on farmer livelihoods could be substantial. Past studies of the issue have largely focused on Latin America, while the vulnerability of Southeast Asian coffee farmers to climate change has received very little attention. We present results of a modeling study of climate change impacts on Arabica coffee in Indonesia, one of the world's largest coffee producers. Focusing on the country's main Arabica production zones in Sumatra, Sulawesi, Flores, Bali and Java, we show that there are currently extensive areas with a suitable climate for Arabica coffee production outside the present production zones. Temperature increases are likely to combine with decreasing rainfall on some islands and increasing rainfall on others. These changes are projected to drastically reduce the total area of climatically suitable coffee-producing land across Indonesia by 2050. However, even then there will remain more land area with a suitable climate and topography for coffee cultivation outside protected areas available than is being used for coffee production now, although much of this area will not be in the same locations. This suggests that local production decline could at least partly be compensated by expansion into other areas. This may allow the country to maintain current production levels while those of other major producer countries decline. However, this forced adaptation process could become a major driver of deforestation in the highlands. We highlight the need for public and private policies to encourage the expansion of coffee farms into areas that will remain suitable over the medium term, that are not under legal protection, and that are already deforested so that coffee farming could make a positive contribution to landscape restoration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) links upper ocean waters of the west Pacific and Indian Ocean, modulates heat and fresh water budgets between these oceans, and in turn plays an important role in global climate change. The climatic phenomena such as the East Asian monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exert a strong influence on flux, water properties and vertical stratification of the ITF. This work studied sediments of Core SO18462 that was retrieved from the outflow side of the ITF in the Timor Sea in order to investigate response of the ITF to monsoon and ENSO activities since the last glacial. Based on Mg/Ca ratios and oxygen isotopes in shells of planktonic foraminiferal surface and thermocline species, seawater temperatures and salinity of both surface and thermocline waters and vertical thermal gradient of the ITF outflow were reconstructed. Records of Core SO18462 were then compared with those from Core 3cBX that was recovered from the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP). The results displayed that similar surface waters occurred in the Timor Sea and the WPWP during the last glacial. Since ∼16 ka, an apparent difference in surface waters between these two regions exists in salinity, indicated by much fresher waters in the Timor Sea than in the WPWP. In contrast, there is little change in difference of sea surface temperatures (SSTs). With regard to thermocline temperature (TT), it increased until ∼11.5 ka since the last glacial, and then remained an overall unchanged trend in the WPWP but continuously decreased in the Timor Sea towards the late Holocene. Since ∼6 ka, thermocline waters have tended to be close to each other in between the Timor Sea and the WPWP. It is indicated that intensified precipitation due to East Asian monsoon and possible ENSO cold phase significantly freshened surface waters over the Indonesian Seas, impeding the ITF surface flow and in turn having enhanced thermocline flow during the Holocene. Consequently, thermocline water of the ITF outflow was cooling and thermocline was shoaling towards the late Holocene. It is speculated that, in addition to strengthening of East Asian winter monsoon, increasing ENSO events during the late Holocene likely played an important role in influencing thermocline depth of the ITF outflow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how individuals engage with climate change is critical for developing successful climate adaptation policies. Indonesia ranks among the world's top CO2 emitters, affirming its relevance to the global climate change policy arena, yet the dynamics of climate change engagement in Indonesia may differ from developed countries from which much research on this issue derives. We surveyed 6,310 households in two Indonesian regions to investigate patterns in four steps of engagement: observation, risk perception, reactive action (in response to present climate change) and proactive action (in anticipation of future climate change). We show that 89.5% of households exhibited a pattern whereby taking each of these steps in sequence implied taking all steps that precede it. Exceptions occurred in urban areas, where households were more likely to take action without having observed climate change or perceiving risks. In rural areas, households were more likely to observe climate change without taking action. These variations suggest a potentially nonlinear relationship between steps of engagement. We distinguish three types of household requiring adaptation support, and stress that Indonesian climate policy should shift emphasis from raising awareness to identifying broader institutional structures and processes to facilitate household engagement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme stream-flow events of Citarum River are derived from the daily stream-flows at the Nanjung gauge station. Those events are identified based on their persistently extreme flows for 6 or more days during boreal fall when the seasonal mean stream-flow starts peaking-up from the lowest seasonal flows of June-August. Most of the extreme events of high-streamflows were related to La Niña conditions of tropical Pacific. A few of them were also associated with the negative phases of IOD and the newly identified El Niño Modoki. Unlike the cases of extreme high streamflows, extreme low streamflow events are seen to be associated with the positive IODs. Nevertheless, it was also found that the low-stream-flow events related to positive IOD events were also associated with El Niño events except for one independent event of 1977. Because the occurrence season coincides the peak season of IOD, not only the picked extreme events are seen to fall under the IOD seasons but also there exists a statistically significant correlation of 0.51 between the seasonal IOD index and the seasonal streamflows. There also exists a significant lag correlation when IOD of June-August season leads the streamflows of September-November. A significant but lower correlation coefficient (0.39) is also found between the seasonal streamflow and El Niño for September-November season only. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use a statistical metric of multi-dimensional climate change to quantify the emergence of global climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble. Our hotspot metric extends previous work through the inclusion of extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation, which exert critical influence on climate change impacts. The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots throughout the 21st century of the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 forcing pathways. In addition, areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, the Arctic, and Central America/western North America also emerge as prominent regional climate change hotspots in response to intermediate and high levels of forcing. Comparisons of different periods of the two forcing pathways suggest that the pattern of aggregate change is fairly robust to the level of global warming below approximately 2 °C of global warming (relative to the late-20th-century baseline), but not at the higher levels of global warming that occur in the late-21st-century period of the RCP8.5 pathway, with areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Arctic exhibiting particular intensification of relative aggregate climate change in response to high levels of forcing. Although specific impacts will clearly be shaped by the interaction of climate change with human and biological vulnerabilities, our identification of climate change hotspots can help to inform mitigation and adaptation decisions by quantifying the rate, magnitude and causes of the aggregate climate response in different parts of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the drivers-pressures-state-impact-responses (DPSIR) analytical framework, local stakeholder respondents and experts were interviewed to construct and prioritize a causality network that links ecosystem state of the coastal waters of Berau (East Kalimantan, Indonesia) with societal drivers of change. Particularly on the perceived top priority drivers and pressures, consensus among respondents was considerable. The constructed network was found to be consistent with literature findings from elsewhere in SE Asia. This causality network was then confronted with a local articulation of the SRES scenarios (IPCCs Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A1, A2, B1, B2), and four plausible trajectories of future change were deduced over a period of 20 years, until 2030. Our scenario articulations differed greatly in the projected immigration influx into the region, in local economic growth and in institutional strength of governance. Under business-as-usual conditions, it is foreseen that fisheries will continue to overexploit the resource, and inland and mangrove deforestation, as well as sediment and sewage loading of the coastal waters, will increase, leading to declines in coral and seagrass extent and depleted fisheries. Scenarios with continued immigration (~A1, A2) will probably aggravate this pattern, whereas those with reduced immigration (~B1, B2) would appear to lead to considerable improvements in the state of the coastal waters of Berau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There was a widespread misconception about the causes of vegetation and land fires in Indonesia. At a certain point, the public perceived that fires and the associated haze pollution were primarily caused by smallholders' agricultural activities. In fact, there was a variety of land-use activities including large-scale land clearing following deforestation for further land development. El Niño events and the associated dry weather were sometimes quoted by officials and the media as the cause of fires. The fire episodes from 1980 to 2000 were analysed in connection with climate anomalies and the implementation of land-use policies related to forest conversions. The analysis employs long-term climatic and sea surface temperature data to reconstruct climate distributions and anomalies including Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR). In this study, the terrestrial carbon emissions from vegetation fires were estimated based on official statistical data on area burnt. The possible incentives for sustainable land management were discussed in the light of fire prevention. The underlying cause neglected in the discussion of Indonesian vegetation fires was forest and land development policy. Legitimated in the early 1980s, it drove massive forest conversions and the use of fires for land clearing. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provided dry weather suitable for biomass burning and widespread fire, but it was hardly the cause of fires. The estimate of area burnt in the big fires in 1997 was about 11.6 Mha, resulting in carbon release of 1.45 Gt, equivalent to 0.73 ppmv of CO2, or almost half the annual global atmospheric CO2 growth. Based on the current carbon market price such emissions by the 1997 fire episode were worth around US$ 3.6 billion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Charcoal fragments in forest soils give evidence of prehistoric and historic natural and anthropogenic wildfires in the equatorial rainforests and in seasonal monsoon forests of continental and insular South Asia. Conditions favourable for the occurrence of historic and contemporary rainforest fires are associated with droughts, especially during dry spells caused by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. Historic land-use fires and wildfires can be reconstructed from a number of narrative reports, including documents that reveal drought and famine. In the eastern part of Borneo prehistoric and historic records of coal fires reveal a unique natural source of wildfires. Starting with modern transmigration programs and systematic conversion of primary and secondary vegetation, including peat-swamp ecosystems, into farmland and industrial plantations, the use of fire as a land-clearing tool escalated in the 1990s. During droughts land-clearing fires additionally contribute to wildfires. A detailed study of the ecological consequences of the episode of land-use fires and wild-fires of 1982-1983 was conducted on an area of 2.7 million ha of dipterocarp rainforest in East Kalimantan. The results show that dipterocarps are highly susceptible to fire and are replaced by pioneers and fire-tolerant species that occupy the disturbed sites or survive the immediate fire effects. Smoke from forest conversion burning caused considerable environmental problems, reducing visibility and affecting human health and security. Emissions from vegetation burning influence chemistry and functioning of the global atmosphere. The situation is different in those parts of mainland and insular Southeast Asia that are characterized by seasonal climate. Through long-term influence of climate variability, fire influence, and anthropogenic pressure the vegetation is better adapted to extrinsic stresses. During the 15 years between the extreme ENSO events and fire episodes of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 the national and international communities have been alerted and prepared to respond to the escalating fire situation in Indonesia. The response to the onset of the 1997-1998 fire and smoke episode, however, was absolutely inadequate and erratic. Meanwhile a whole continent -- the maritime continent of Southeast Asia -- has been degraded by excessive application for more than 20 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]