Catalao, J. P. S., Pousinho, H. M. I., and Mendes, V. M. F.
Subjects
ELECTRIC rates, ADAPTIVE control systems, FORECASTING, WAVELETS (Mathematics), SWARM intelligence, MATHEMATICAL optimization, FUZZY sets
Abstract
A novel hybrid approach, combining wavelet transform, particle swarm optimization, and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, is proposed in this paper for short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Bayón, L., Suárez, P., Matías, J.M., and Taboada, J.
Subjects
*ELECTRIC rates, *HYDROTHERMAL electric power systems, *BUSINESS forecasting, *ECONOMIC competition, *MATHEMATICAL optimization, *MATHEMATICAL models in business, *TIME series analysis
Abstract
Abstract: This paper proposes a new method for addressing the short-term optimal operation of a generation company, fully adapted to represent the characteristics of the new competitive markets. We propose an efficient and highly accurate novel method for next-day price forecasting. We model the functional time series with a linear autoregressive functional model which formulates the relationships between each daily function of prices and the functions of previous days. For the optimization problem (formulated within the framework of nonsmooth analysis using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle), we propose a new method that uses diverse mathematical techniques (the Shooting Method, Euler’s Method, the Cyclic Coordinate Descent Method). These techniques are well known for the case of functions, but are adapted here to the case of functionals and are efficiently combined to provide a novel contribution. Finally, the paper presents the results of applying our method to a price-taker company in the Spanish electricity market. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]