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2. SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT OF DATA FOR ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS.
- Author
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Jorgenson, Dale W.
- Subjects
- *
STATISTICAL correlation , *LEAST squares , *MATHEMATICAL statistics , *PROBABILITY theory , *REGRESSION analysis - Abstract
An earlier paper [3] provides axioms for the seasonal adjustment of economic time series. Seasonally adjusted data should be minimum variance, unbiased, and linear in an appropriate sense. These axioms yield a unique method for seasonal adjustment. The seasonally adjusted data may be obtained by an application of ordinary least squares regression. The problem of seasonal adjustment of economic time series in [3] is not the same as the problem of seasonal adjustment of data for econometric analysis. The first problem is completely resolved by appeal to the axioms of minimum variance, unbiasedness, and linearity. The second problem requires formulation as a standard problem in econometrics: estimation of the parameters of a single equation in a system of simultaneous equations. Lovell [4] has proposed to solve the problem of seasonal adjustment of data for econometric analysis by applying ordinary least squares directly to a structural equation in a system of simultaneous equations. Ordinary least squares estimation of the parameters of a structural equation usually results in "least squares bias." However, under certain special assumptions such a procedure can be justified, as Wold [6] has pointed out. Under these assumptions Lovell's procedure is valid. In this paper the seasonal adjustment of data for econometric analysis is formulated as a general simultaneous equations problem. Conditions for identification of the parameters to be estimated and methods for constructing consistent and asymptotically unbiased and efficient estimates are derived. Extensions to multivariate problems of seasonal adjustment for econometric analysis are sketched. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 1967
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. STATISTICAL DEPENDENCE BETWEEN RANDOM EFFECTS AND THE NUMBERS OF OBSERVATIONS ON THE EFFECTS FOR THE UNBALANCED ONE-WAY RANDOM CLASSIFICATION.
- Author
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Harville, David A.
- Subjects
- *
RANDOM variables , *PROBABILITY theory , *STATISTICAL correlation , *ANALYSIS of variance , *EXPERIMENTAL design , *DISTRIBUTION (Probability theory) , *MATHEMATICAL statistics , *REGRESSION analysis - Abstract
This paper deals with certain aspects of variance component estimation for the unbalanced one-way random classification where the number (N[sub I]) of observations in the ith class is treated as a random variable not necessarily independent of the class effect (A[sub iota]). It is assumed that in general P(N[sub I] = 0) > 0. The conditional expectations (given the number of observations in each class) of all estimators of the between variance component (sigma[sup 2, sub alpha]) belonging to a certain class of estimators are derived. A general expression is found for the expected value of that estimator of sigma[sup 2, sub alpha] yielded by analysis of variance of class means. The limit of this expression (as the number of classes arrow right Infinity) is given; and it is shown that, if the bivariate distribution function of A[sub I], N[sub I] belongs to a certain class of distribution functions, then this limit is less than sigma[sup 2, sub a]. Numerical approximations to the expected values of two estimators of sigma[sup 2, sub a] are presented for one subclass of such distribution functions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 1967
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
4. SHORTER CONFIDENCE BANDS IN LINEAR REGRESSION.
- Author
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Halperin, Max, Rastogi, Suresh C., Ho, Irwin, and Yang, Y. Y.
- Subjects
- *
REGRESSION analysis , *MATHEMATICAL variables , *MATHEMATICAL statistics , *PROBABILITY theory , *STATISTICAL correlation , *ANALYSIS of variance - Abstract
In many linear regression problems, the values of the independent variable or variables may be subject to certain constraints. For example, the independent variables may necessarily be positive; as another example, the variables may not only all be positive but are powers of a single variable (e.g., polynomial regression on time). Previous writers considering the problem of obtaining confidence bands on a regression function for all values of the independent variable have not utilized such constraints; the usual basis for such bands has been the multiple comparison procedure of Scheffe which places no constraints at all upon the independent variables. Any procedure utilizing constraints will necessarily yield a uniform improvement over the method of Scheffe (assuming both methods are applicable) in the sense of yielding narrower bands for a given confidence probability. In the present paper a nontrivial lower bound is obtained for the confidence probability associated with a multiple comparison procedure appropriate to the case where it can be assumed that each independent variable must be of specified sign; this includes, as a subclass, polynomial regression on a non-negative independent variable. This result gives a basis for a multiple comparison procedure less conservative than that of Scheffe when both are applicable. Implementation of the procedure requires the percentage points of a heretofore untabulated distribution. Tables of percentage points of this distribution appropriate to linear combinations of two, three, or four parameters are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 1967
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
5. A COMPUTER METHOD FOR CALCULATING KENDALL'S TAU WITH UNGROUPED DATA.
- Author
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Knight, William R.
- Subjects
- *
DISTRIBUTION (Probability theory) , *STATISTICAL correlation , *SORTING (Electronic computers) , *STATISTICAL sampling , *PROBABILITY theory , *MOTIVATION (Psychology) , *MATHEMATICAL statistics - Abstract
The experiments to be discussed in this article was designed to investigate empirically the distribution of the sample version of the measure of association (G), &b.gamma;. Professors, William H. Kruskal and Leo A. Goodman have published an article giving interpretive motivation for the coefficient, and have developed the large sample theory for G. In the present research, sampling experiments were performed to test the adequacy of the large sample theory for 5X5 population cross classifications and samples of size ten, twenty-five and fifty. The numerical experiment described in this paper was based on a number of 25 cells multinomial populations, each considered as represented by the probabilities in a 5X5 population cross classification. Gamma is defined by Goodman and Kruskal in terms of probabilities. The 100 population cross classifications were chosen to be representative of practical situations in psychology. The method use to obtain them was to begin with 5X5 cross classification having complete association along the main diagonal and with a variety of marginal distributions.
- Published
- 1966
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
6. My Student, the Purist: A Lament.
- Author
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Borgatta, Edgar F.
- Subjects
STATISTICS ,STATISTICAL correlation ,MATHEMATICAL statistics ,PROBABILITY theory ,REGRESSION analysis - Abstract
How can you use a product-moment correlation coefficient when you do not have interval scale data? This is particularly addressed to uses of such statistics with personality, value, or other 'soft' variables, and to variables that are sometimes considered to be composed of discrete categories. The implicit contrast usually is to a nonparametric or sidtribution free statistic like Maurice G. Kendall's Tau as more appropriate with such data. Since part of the confusion that surrounds the question of the appropriateness of use of various statistics occurs about the type of measurement involved, we may focus on the presentation of Herbert M. Blalock on this topic.
- Published
- 1968
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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