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The arid endorheic basin of northwest China is characterized by rich land resources, water shortage, and a fragile ecological environment. The establishment of a credible coupling model of groundwater and surface water based on multi-source observation data is an effective means to study the change in basin water cycles and the sustainable utilization of water resources in the past and future. Based on the latest understanding of hydrogeological conditions, hydrology and water resource utilization data in the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin (HRB), this paper constructs an up-to-date coupling model of surface water and groundwater to study the water balance change of the basin. The water resources data series under historical replay and CMIP5 climate model prediction are constructed to predict future changes in water resources. The study shows that, under the joint influence of natural conditions and human activities, the average annual recharge of groundwater in the study area from 1990 to 2020 is 17.98 × 108 m3/a, the average annual discharge is 18.62 × 108 m3/a, and the difference between recharge and discharge is −0.64 × 108 m3/a. The total groundwater storage is −19.99 × 108 m3, of which the groundwater storage from 1990 to 2001 was −17.52 × 108 m3 and from 2002 to 2020 was −2.47 × 108 m3. Abundant water from 2002 to 2020 in the basin significantly improved the loss of groundwater storage. Under the prediction of historical reappearance and the CMIP5 CNRM-CM5 model RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways, the groundwater level of the Heihe River–Liyuanhe River inclined plain falls first because the HRB has just experienced a wet season and then rises according to future climate change. The groundwater level of the inclined plain east of the Heihe River and Yanchi basin decreases continuously because of the change in water cycle caused by human activities. The erosion accumulation plain is located in the groundwater discharge zone, and the water level is basically stable. Under the conditions of water resource development and utilization, the runoff of Zhengyixia hydrological station cannot meet the requirements of the "97 Water Dividing Plan" of the State Council in most years in the future, and the ecological and production water in the lower reaches of HRB cannot be effectively guaranteed. With the implementation of water-saving irrigation under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the runoff of Zhengyixia can meet the "97 Water Diversion Plan". It is suggested to further improve the level of agricultural water savings in the middle reaches of the HRB and control the reasonable scale of cultivated land in order to reduce water consumption in the middle reaches of the HRB and implement sustainable utilization of water resources in the HRB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Groundwater is a primary freshwater resource for human consumption and an essential source for industry and agriculture. Therefore, understanding its spatial and temporal trends and drivers is crucial for governments to take appropriate measures to manage water resources. This paper uses Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) to derive groundwater storage anomalies (GWSAs) and to analyze the spatial and temporal trends of GWSA in different regions of China (Xinjiang, Tibet, Inner Mongolia, North China Plain, South China, and Northeast China). It used groundwater-level observation data to verify the accuracy of GWSA estimates and analyzed the drivers of regional GWSA changes. The results showed that: (1) GWSA in South China increased at a rate of 4.79 mm/a from 2003 to 2016, and GWSA in other regions in China showed a decreasing trend. Among them, the decline rates of GWSA in Xinjiang, Tibet, Inner Mongolia, North China Plain, and Northeast China were −6.24 mm/a, −3.33 mm/a, −3.17 mm/a, −7.35 mm/a, and −0.75 mm/a, respectively. (2) The accuracy of the annual-scale GWSA estimates was improved after deducting gravity losses due to raw coal quality, and the correlation coefficient between GWSA and groundwater levels monitored by observation wells increased. (3) In Xinjiang, the annual water consumed by raw coal mining, industrial, and agricultural activities had a greater impact on GWSA than rainfall and temperature, so these human activities might be the main drivers of the continued GWSA decline in Xinjiang. Water consumption by raw coal mining and industry might be the main drivers of the continued decline in GWSA in Inner Mongolia and the North China Plain. The increase in groundwater storage in South China was mainly due to the recharge of rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An accurate understanding of the relationship between reservoir construction and the dynamic change of groundwater level in downstream areas is of great significance for rational development and utilization of water resources. At present, the research on the interaction between surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) mainly focuses on the interaction between river and GW. There are few studies on the impact of the reservoir construction on GW level in downstream loess irrigation area. Rainfall, evaporation and climate temperature have a great impact on W level, but the impact of reservoir construction on the GW level should not be ignored in the utilization of water resources. In this paper, a GW flow model under a natural boundary was established by numerical simulation. Taking Heihe Jinpen Reservoir in Heihe River watershed as the research object, the influence of the construction of a mountain reservoir on the dynamic change of GW level in the downstream loess region is studied. By comparing the GW level under the natural state without reservoir construction and the measured GW level after the reservoir was built, the variation of the GW depth in the loess area of the lower reaches in the Heihe River watershed is obtained. The results show that simulation accuracy of the interaction between SW and GW was reasonable; after the Heihe Jinpen Reservoir construction, the mean GW level decrease was about 6.05 m in the downstream loess irrigation area in Guanzhong Basin. It provides a method for the simulation and prediction of SW–GW conversion laws. This study is also of great significance to explore the change law of the water cycle and improve the utilization rate of water resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the largest irrigation area in northwest China, the middle and lower reaches of the Yarkant River basin are limited in economic development by the shortage of surface water resources and the increasing demand for groundwater resources from agriculture and industry, and the phenomenon of over-exploitation is becoming increasingly serious, which is not in line with the concept of sustainable development. Therefore, improving the efficiency of water resource utilization while curbing the trend of declining groundwater levels is an important issue that needs to be addressed in the middle and lower reaches of Yarkant at present, specifically, by establishing a distributed hydrological model MIKE SHE based on a soil texture dataset. The model efficiency coefficient Ens, the water balance coefficient (WB), the correlation coefficient r, and the relative error Re were selected to evaluate the model's applicability. The results were: Ens = 0.84, WB = 0.80, and r = 0.96 for the annual scale runoff simulation and Ens = 0.85, RE = 0.61, and r = 0.96 for the monthly scale runoff simulation. The relative errors between the simulated and observed values of the typical observation wells were 3.45%, 1.59%, 2.52%, and 0.35%. According to the analysis of the soil parameters on the runoff sensitivity and groundwater table sensitivity, the saturated hydraulic conductivity had the greatest effect on the peak discharge. The results show that the MIKE SHE model has some applicability in the lower and middle reaches of the Yarkant River basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Managed aquifer recharge operations are often conducted in near-bank areas to regulate water resources or reduce seawater intrusion. Yet little is known about the influence of surface water level fluctuations at different temporal scales on MAR performance. A generalized conceptual model was developed based on an investigation site in Western China as a basis to simulate the response surface water level fluctuations on the water table, artificially recharged water lens (formed by the artificially recharged water), groundwater flow paths and average travel times (which is an important control on how quickly contaminants are flushed out of aquifers), and the discharge of the artificially recharged aquifer during the surface water level fluctuation. The results showed a fluctuating groundwater table in the artificially recharged near-bank aquifer under the influence of surface water level fluctuations. The peak values of the increment of the groundwater table induced by artificial recharge decreased with the increase of the period and amplitude of surface water level fluctuation, but the trough values of the increment of water table increases with that. The penetration depth of surface water into the aquifer with a fluctuating surface water level leads to a decreasing increment of the groundwater table which follows a power law. The fluctuating surface water level leads to dynamic changes of artificially recharged water lens morphology and a thinner artificially recharged water lens. A mixing zone of recharged water and ambient water could be found in the artificially recharged near-bank area, which is expected to lead to modifications in the geochemical conditions in the artificially recharged near-bank aquifer. A longer period of surface water level fluctuation leads to a longer average travel time, but the larger penetration depth of surface water and amplitude lead to a shorter average travel time. The peak discharge of the near-bank aquifer was found to decrease with the period of surface water level fluctuation, but it increases with penetration depth and amplitude. This study is important in providing insights into the performance of near-bank managed aquifer recharge with respect to surface water level fluctuation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, strong human activities have not only brought about climate change including both global warming and shifts in the weather patterns but have also caused anomalous variations of hydrological elements in different basins all around the world. Studying the mechanisms and causes of these hydrological variations scientifically is the basis for the management of water resources and the implementation of ecological protection. Therefore, taking the Yongding River mountain area as a representative watershed in China, the changes of different observed and simulated hydro-meteorological variables and their possible causes are analyzed on an inter-annual scale based on ground based observations and remotely sensed data of hydrology, meteorology and underlying surface characteristics from 1956 to 2016. The results show that the annual natural runoff of Guanting hydrological station in the main stream of the Yongding River, Cetian hydrological station and Xiangshuibao hydrological station in the tributary of the Yongding River all have a significant decreasing trend and abrupt changes, and all the abrupt change points of the annual natural runoff series of the three hydrological stations appear in the early 1980s. On the inter-annual scale, the water balance model with double parameters is unable to effectively simulate the natural surface runoff after the abrupt change points. The annual average precipitation after the abrupt change points decreases by no more than 10%, compared with that before the abrupt change points. However, the precipitation from July to August, which is the main runoff-production period, decreases by more than 25%, besides the intra-annual temporal distribution of precipitation becoming uniform and a significant decrease in effective rainfall, which is the source of the runoff. Meanwhile, the NDVI in the basin show an increasing trend, while the groundwater level and land water storage decrease significantly. These factors do not lead only to the continuous reduction of the annual natural runoff in the Yongding River mountain area from 1956 to 2016, but also result in significant changes of the hydro-meteorological relationship in the basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precise multi-time scales prediction of groundwater level is essential for water resources planning and management. However, credible and reliable predicting results are hard to achieve even to extensively applied artificial intelligence (AI) models considering the uncontrollable error, indefinite inputs and unneglectable uncertainty during the modelling process. The AI model ensembled with the data pretreatment technique, the input selection method, or uncertainty analysis has been successfully used to tackle this issue, whereas studies about the comprehensive deterministic and uncertainty analysis of hybrid models in groundwater level forecast are rarely reported. In this study, a novel hybrid predictive model combining the variational mode decomposition (VMD) data pretreatment technique, Boruta input selection method, bootstrap based uncertainty analysis, and the extreme learning machine (ELM) model named VBELM was developed for 1-, 2- and 3-month ahead groundwater level prediction in a typical arid oasis area of northwestern China. The historical observed monthly groundwater level, precipitation and temperature data were used as inputs to train and test the model. Specifically, the VMD was used to decompose all the input-outputs into a set of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), the Boruta method was applied to determine input variables, and the ELM was employed to forecast the value of each IMF. In order to ascertain the efficiency of the proposed VBELM model, the performance of the coupled model (VELM) hybridizing VMD with ELM algorithm and the single ELM model were estimated in comparison. The results indicate that the VBELM performed best, while the single ELM model performed the worst among the three models. Furthermore, the VBELM model presented lower uncertainty than the VELM model with more observed groundwater level values falling inside the confidence interval. In summary, the VBELM model demonstrated an excellent performance for both certainty and uncertainty analyses, and can serve as an effective tool for multi-scale groundwater level forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With rapid economic development, demand for water resources is continuously increasing, which has resulted in common overexploitation of groundwater, particularly in megacities. This overexploitation of groundwater over many years has brought a series of adverse problems, including groundwater level decline, land subsidence and hydrogeological issues. To quantitatively describe these risks, we propose a risk evaluation model for groundwater exploitation and utilization. By deducing and expanding on the cusp catastrophe type, this study breaks through the limitations on the catastrophe assessment method, e.g., the number of indicators, and establishes an improved catastrophe assessment model for groundwater exploitation and utilization risk. In addition, the index system of the risk evaluation is constructed including three criterion layers: groundwater system condition (B1), groundwater exploitation and utilization (B2) and groundwater environmental problems (B3) and is tested for the conditions in Shanghai City, eastern China. The evaluation results show that the comprehensive risk values for groundwater exploitation and utilization in all districts (counties) of Shanghai are between 0.68 and 0.85, which categorizes the city as in the moderate risk zone; therefore, the improved catastrophe model is suitable for assessing groundwater exploitation risk in Shanghai City and should be applicable more broadly for the effective protection and sustainable supply of groundwater. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]