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Climate change is affecting virtually all environments in the world today. The Central Asian mountains, where livestock herding is the main source of livelihood, are among the environments predicted to be most affected. In this paper, we use meteorological records and herder perceptions to improve the understanding of climate change and examine how different climate change scenarios will affect herder livelihoods in the Tost-Tosonbumba Nature Reserve of southern Mongolia. Herders with generation-long herding experience perceived that there had been changes in all eight meteorological variables examined in this study between 1995 and 2015, including winter temperature, summer temperature, summer precipitation, frequency of intense rain, frequency of drizzle rain, wind speed, number of windy days, and snow cover. Herder perceptions and meteorological data showed the same patterns for 3 of the 8 variables at α = 0.05 and for 5 of the 8 variables at α = 0.10. Herders also predicted that all 9 climate change scenarios presented would have negative impacts on their practices and livelihoods. Our work suggests that herder perceptions of climate change can provide important information on changes in the climate and insights on factors that put their livelihoods at risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Photodegradation of plant litter plays a pivotal role in the global carbon (C) cycle. In temperate forest ecosystems, the exposure of plant litter to solar radiation can be significantly altered by changes in autumn phenology and snow cover due to climatic change. How this will affect litter decomposition and nutrient dynamic interacting with forest canopy structure (understorey vs. gaps) is uncertain. In the present study, we conducted a field experiment using leaf litter of early-fall deciduous Betula platyphylla (Asian white birch) and late-fall deciduous Quercus mongolica (Mongolian oak) to explore the effect of change in autumn solar radiation on dynamics of litter decomposition in a gap and understorey of a temperate mixed forest. Results: Exposure to the full-spectrum of not only significantly increased the loss of mass, C, and lignin, but also modified N loss through both immobilization and mineralization during the initial decomposition during autumn canopy opening, irrespective of canopy structure and litter species. These effects were mainly driven by the blue-green spectral region of sunlight. Short-term photodegradation by autumn solar radiation had a positive legacy effect on the later decomposition particularly in the forest gap, increasing mass loss by 16% and 19% for Asian white birch and Mongolia oak, respectively. Conclusions: Our results suggest that earlier autumn leaf-fall phenology and/or later snow cover due to land-use or climate change would increase the exposure of plant organic matter to solar radiation, and accelerate ecosystem processes, C and nutrient cycling in temperate forest ecosystems. The study provides a reference for predictive research on carbon cycling under the background of global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The incidence of plague has rebounded in the Americas, Asia, and Africa alongside rapid globalization and climate change. Previous studies have shown local climate to have significant nonlinear effects on plague dynamics among rodent communities. We analyzed an 18-year database of plague, spanning 1998 to 2015, in the foci of Mongolia and China to trace the associations between marmot plague and climate factors. Our results suggested a density-dependent effect of precipitation and a geographic location-dependent effect of temperature on marmot plague. That is, a significantly positive relationship was evident between risk of plague and precipitation only when the marmot density exceeded a certain threshold. The geographical heterogeneity of the temperature effect and the contrasting slopes of influence for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and other regions in the study (nQTP) were primarily related to diversity of climate and landscape types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trends for increased vegetation greenness based on satellite-derived data have been repeatedly published for the temperate grassland biome (including forest steppes) of eastern Inner Asia since 1982. Although this greening trend has been attenuated or partially reversed by drought in the early twenty-first century, linear increases in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) or other parameters of vegetation greenness are nevertheless evident when the period since 1982 is regarded. However, the question arises whether these trends are part of a long-term trend driven by climate change, as simultaneously forests in the region show widespread drought-induced growth reductions and mortality outbreaks. Therefore, we hypothesized that the post-1982 greening trend was neither part of a long-term trend nor unprecedented. To test this hypothesis, we analyzed monthly maximum NDVI data from AVHRR time series and correlated these data with standardized tree-ring data of Larix sibirica from two regions of western Mongolia. We used linear regression to model the NDVI from tree-ring anomalies and to reconstruct the NDVI since 1940. These reconstructions show that the availability of satellite-based NDVI data coincidentally began during a dry period of low vegetation greenness in the early 1980s and was followed by a wet phase in the 1990s, producing the linear greening trend. No positive long-term trend in the reconstructed NDVI was observed from 1940 to 2010. This result rules out a recent climate change-driven greening trend for the grasslands and forest steppes of western Mongolia and calls into question its existence for all of eastern Inner Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transitional climate zone (TCZ) over East Asia is located between humid and arid regions, which is a highly sensitive and disaster-prone region especially under global climate change. Due to limited water resources, the atmospheric moisture availability has a dominant control on the precipitation variability. Hence, this study is motivated to reveal the key teleconnection patterns and associated moisture processes that govern the interannual variability of the summer precipitation over TCZ. In order to better diagnose moisture budget, the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART is employed for quantifying contribution from moisture sources. Above all, the observational analysis highlights two critical modes, one is Eurasian teleconnection (EU) and the other is Circumglobal Teleconnection (CGT). As regards EU pattern, positive EU phase corresponds to ample precipitation in TCZ. In the presence of positive phase, it underlines a "+-+-" pattern of geopotential height anomalies stretching from western Europe to Mongolia plateau. In the context, the cyclonic flow and low pressure over Mongolia plateau act to enhance moisture flux from the west and the south and to prompt upward motions. Further moisture diagnoses illuminate largest increase of moisture uptake in monsoon dominated region, followed by the westerlies dominated region. However, the eventual contribution of summer monsoon is a little bit less than that of westerlies, due to the grand loss en route. In addition, the local evaporation exerts little impact. CGT propagates along the mid-latitude westerly jet, which is positively coupled with the precipitation in TCZ. Under the positive phase, there is an ascending motion over TCZ, which bears great resemblance to the EU case. However, unlike the result of moisture attribution in EU case, the southerly monsoon has the largest contribution followed by local effect, while the westerlies have little impact due to the cancellation of wetting and drying regimes along the pathway. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The daily and seasonal activity patterns of snow leopards (Panthera uncia) are poorly understood, limiting our ecological understanding and hampering our ability to mitigate threats such as climate change and retaliatory killing in response to livestock predation. We fitted GPS-collars with activity loggers to snow leopards, Siberian ibex (Capra sibirica: their main prey), and domestic goats (Capra hircus: common livestock prey) in Mongolia between 2009 and 2020. Snow leopards were facultatively nocturnal with season-specific crepuscular activity peaks: seasonal activity shifted towards night-sunrise during summer, and day-sunset in winter. Snow leopard activity was in contrast to their prey, which were consistently diurnal. We interpret these results in relation to: (1) darkness as concealment for snow leopards when stalking in an open landscape (nocturnal activity), (2) low-intermediate light preferred for predatory ambush in steep rocky terrain (dawn and dusk activity), and (3) seasonal activity adjustments to facilitate thermoregulation in an extreme environment. These patterns suggest that to minimise human-wildlife conflict, livestock should be corralled at night and dawn in summer, and dusk in winter. It is likely that climate change will intensify seasonal effects on the snow leopard's daily temporal niche for thermoregulation in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Great Lakes region of western Mongolia includes a diversity of lake ecosystems, from alpine freshwater to lowland, saline lakes, which increasingly face environmental threats from excessive grazing and climate change. We assessed environment-species relationships and patterns of biodiversity of non-biting midges (Diptera: Chironomidae) in 55 western Mongolian lakes using surface-floating pupal exuviae. Overall, the gamma diversity of chironomids from these lakes was high with 117 taxa, but alpha diversity was relatively low. Results from canonical correspondence analysis indicated that chironomid communities were most strongly related to salinity and water temperature. Indicator species analysis identified 12 taxa which were indicative of four lake salinity categories: freshwater, subsaline, hyposaline, and mesohaline. Most of the variation in the chironomid communities could be attributed to the loss of taxa in lakes with higher salinity. Observations also suggested that groundwater upwelling along the margins of lakes with extreme salinity could possibly allow small populations of chironomids to survive in littoral zones. Climate change and watershed disturbance are already altering water quality in western Mongolian lakes, and our results establish a baseline for chironomid communities along gradients of salinity and temperature by which future studies may be compared. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The repeated expansion of East Asian steppe cultures was a key driver of Eurasian history, forging new social, economic, and biological links across the continent. Climate has been suggested as important driver of these poorly understood cultural expansions, but paleoclimate records from the Mongolian Plateau often suffer from poor age control or ambiguous proxy interpretation. Here, we use a combination of geochemical analyses and comprehensive radiocarbon dating to establish the first robust and detailed record of paleohydrological conditions for Lake Telmen, Mongolia, covering the past ~ 4000 years. Our record shows that humid conditions coincided with solar minima, and hydrological modeling confirms the high sensitivity of the lake to paleoclimate changes. Careful comparisons with archaeological and historical records suggest that in the vast semi-arid grasslands of eastern Eurasia, solar minima led to reduced temperatures, less evaporation, and high biomass production, expanding the power base for pastoral economies and horse cavalry. Our findings suggest a crucial link between temperature dynamics in the Eastern Steppe and key social developments, such as the emergence of pastoral empires, and fuel concerns that global warming enhances water scarcity in the semi-arid regions of interior Eurasia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study used the Innovative trend analysis method, Mann-Kendall, and Sen's slope estimator test to investigate the mean annual precipitation, annual mean air temperature, and river discharge at selected stations of the sub-basin. The results showed that the trend of annual precipitation trend was significantly increased in Nizhneangarsk station (ф = 0.88 and Z = –0.64) and Bolshoe Goloustnoe (ф = 0.24 and Z = 1.14*) whereas, the other stations showed a decreasing trend. The most decreasing trend was observed in the Ust Barguzin station (ф = –0.68, Z = –2.38**, and β = –0.95). The average air temperature has increased by 1.7°C from 1970 to 2019. All stations showed an increasing trend of annual air temperature during the study period. The most increasing condition was observed in the Ulan Ude station (ф = 9.20***, Z = 7.78***, and β = 0.04). The river discharge showed an increasing trend in Utulik River, Upper Angara River, and Barguzin rivers. The most decreasing is in the Selenga river gauge station (ф = –2.25**, Z = –2.16**, and β = –2.96**). The warming rates in the Selenga river sub-basin of the study area were higher than those in the other four sub-basins and the global climate change more affects the semi-arid region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Little is known about the diversity and distribution patterns of moths along latitudinal gradients. We studied macro-moths in Mongolia along an 860 km latitudinal climatic gradient to gain knowledge on community composition, alpha, beta, and gamma diversity as well as underlying factors, which can be used as baseline information for further studies related to climate change. We identified 236 species of moths of ten families. Our study shows that the diversity of moths increased with the latitude, i.e., low species richness in the south and higher richness in the north. Moth community composition changed along the gradient, and we revealed a breakpoint of beta diversity that divided grassland and desert communities. In the desert, beta diversity was driven by species loss (i.e., nestedness), and few tolerant species existed with high abundance. In contrast, in the grassland, beta diversity was driven by species replacement with more unique species, (i.e., species which occurred only in one site). We found the lowest species diversity in the transitional zones dominated by few generalist species such as Agrotis ripae and Anarta trifolii. Low precipitation and an increasing number of grazing goats are drivers of species loss. We suggest different conservation strategies regarding the contrasting patterns of beta diversity in desert and grassland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The inland location of Mongolia and its relatively high general elevation above sea level combined with the arid climate favor the formation of the specific hydrological regime of water bodies which are highly vulnerable to climate changes. The formation features and the current state of water resources in Mongolia are considered. A brief description of the main water bodies is given. The available estimates of the impact of anthropogenic factors and climate changes on some components of water balance are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our research examines herder livelihoods strategies in a region of the South Gobi desert that is heavily affected by both formal and informal/illegal mining and is exposed to natural hazards such as dzud (lethally severe winters) and drought. The term 'herder' encompasses a wide range of animal-related activities and households correspondingly utilize a complex range of strategies to respond to environmental, political, and socioeconomic conditions. We conducted semi-structured interviews with local herders as well as with individuals who had abandoned herding practices. We discuss how climatic factors such as dzud and drought can affect herders' livelihood decision-making, including engaging in informal/illegal mining, becoming a contracted herder or opening a small business in settlements. We also demonstrate that both social aspirations and climate-related economic vulnerability play a role in the decision to pursue alternative livelihoods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term monitoring of plant community composition and productivity provides evidence of how ecosystems respond to climate change. This study investigated the long-term (1981-2011) dynamics of plant species richness (SR) and community composition of a temperate grassland in Inner Mongolia, China, after the exclusion of livestock grazing. During the 30 years, SR increased between 1981 and 1991, and then declined from 1992 to 2011 mainly because of the loss of C forbs as a result of decreasing rainfall and increasing temperature. The relative abundance, measured as relative biomass (RB), of plant functional groups also showed a similar temporal pattern. There was a shift in the RB of both dominant species and functional groups. As temperature increased with decreasing rainfall during the last 20 years of the study period, the abundance of C forbs decreased, while C grasses increased. However, shrub species did not show any significant pattern in their dynamics. Redundancy analysis indicated that the species composition and plant relative abundance of the Inner Mongolian grassland were affected by both precipitation and temperature. Our findings help us better understand how grassland ecosystems respond to future climate change on the Mongolian Plateau where the climate is projected to be drier and hotter in the upcoming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]