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Objective: To characterize the impact of widespread inventory management policies on stock-outs of essential drugs in Zambia’s health clinics and develop related recommendations. Methods: Daily clinic storeroom stock levels of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) products in 2009–2010 were captured in 145 facilities through photography and manual transcription of paper forms, then used to determine historical stock-out levels and estimate demand patterns. Delivery lead-times and estimates of monthly facility accessibility were obtained through worker surveys. A simulation model was constructed and validated for predictive accuracy against historical stock-outs, then used to evaluate various changes potentially affecting product availability. Findings: While almost no stock-outs of AL products were observed during Q4 2009 consistent with primary analysis, up to 30% of surveyed facilities stocked out of some AL product during Q1 2010 despite ample inventory being simultaneously available at the national warehouse. Simulation experiments closely reproduced these results and linked them to the use of average past monthly issues and failure to capture lead-time variability in current inventory control policies. Several inventory policy enhancements currently recommended by USAID | DELIVER were found to have limited impact on product availability. Conclusions: Inventory control policies widely recommended and used for distributing medicines in sub-Saharan Africa directly account for a substantial fraction of stock-outs observed in common situations involving demand seasonality and facility access interruptions. Developing central capabilities in peripheral demand forecasting and inventory control is critical. More rigorous independent peer-reviewed research on pharmaceutical supply chain management in low-income countries is needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To examine whether childbearing before age 18 in Sub-Saharan Africa is associated with increased risk of maternal and child complications through a systematic literature review and meta-analysis. Methods: The literature on adolescent pregnancy and associated complications in Sub-Saharan Africa was reviewed. A systematic electronic database search in Medline and Embase identified relevant papers. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they had numeric data on maternal mortality, pre-eclampsia, eclampsia, preterm birth, low birth weight, small for gestational age, stillbirth, neonatal death or perinatal death. We included studies on adolescents aged 17 years or younger, and with a comparison group of adult women aged between 20 and 35 years. The quality of the articles was assessed. Meta-analyses were conducted when there were at least three included studies with minor clinical heterogeneity in population and outcome measures. Results: Eighteen studies met our inclusion criteria. There were many studies from Sub-Saharan Africa with data on the age group 15–19 years old, but few studies had separate data on adolescents <18 years old. All included studies were of either moderate or low quality. Adolescents had an increased risk of low birth weight, pre-eclampsia/eclampsia, preterm birth and maternal and perinatal mortality. We found a lower, nonsignificant risk of stillbirth and for small for gestational age babies among the young mothers. Conclusion: In this systematic review, the findings indicate that young maternal age is associated with some unfavorable outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa. High quality observational studies that adjust for sociodemographic factors are lacking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), is an emerging public health problem in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This study aims to determine the trends in prevalence of MDR-TB among new TB cases in sub-Saharan Africa over two decades. Methods: We searched electronic data bases and accessed all prevalence studies of MDR-TB within SSA between 2007 and 2017. We determined pooled prevalence estimates using random effects models and determined trends using meta-regression. Results: Results: We identified 915 studies satisfying inclusion criteria. Cumulatively, studies reported on MDR-TB culture of 34,652 persons. The pooled prevalence of MDR-TB in new cases was 2.1% (95% CI; 1.7–2.5%). There was a non-significant decline in prevalence by 0.12% per year. Conclusion: We found a low prevalence estimate of MDR-TB, and a slight temporal decline over the study period. There is a need for continuous MDR-TB surveillance among patients with TB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: People of Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) and South Asians(SA) ethnic minorities living in Europe have higher risk of stroke than native Europeans(EU). Study objective is to provide an assessment of gender specific absolute differences in office systolic(SBP) and diastolic(DBP) blood pressure(BP) levels between SSA, SA, and EU. Methods and Findings: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies conducted in Europe that examined BP in non-selected adult SSA, SA and EU subjects. Medline, PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Scopus were searched from their inception through January 31st 2015, for relevant articles. Outcome measures were mean SBP and DBP differences between minorities and EU, using a random effects model and tested for heterogeneity. Twenty-one studies involving 9,070 SSA, 18,421 SA, and 130,380 EU were included. Compared with EU, SSA had higher values of both SBP (3.38 mmHg, 95% CI 1.28 to 5.48 mmHg; and 6.00 mmHg, 95% CI 2.22 to 9.78 in men and women respectively) and DBP (3.29 mmHg, 95% CI 1.80 to 4.78; 5.35 mmHg, 95% CI 3.04 to 7.66). SA had lower SBP than EU(-4.57 mmHg, 95% CI -6.20 to -2.93; -2.97 mmHg, 95% CI -5.45 to -0.49) but similar DBP values. Meta-analysis by subgroup showed that SA originating from countries where Islam is the main religion had lower SBP and DBP values than EU. In multivariate meta-regression analyses, SBP difference between minorities and EU populations, was influenced by panethnicity and diabetes prevalence. Conclusions: 1) The higher BP in SSA is maintained over decades, suggesting limited efficacy of prevention strategies in such group in Europe;2) The lower BP in Muslim populations suggests that yet untapped lifestyle and behavioral habits may reveal advantages towards the development of hypertension;3) The additive effect of diabetes, emphasizes the need of new strategies for the control of hypertension in groups at high prevalence of diabetes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although the large majority of persons with diabetes and other non-communicable diseases (NCDs) lives and dies in low- and middle-income countries, the prevention and treatment of diabetes and other NCDs is widely neglected in these areas. A contributing reason may be that, unlike the impacts of acute and communicable diseases, the demands on resources imposed by diabetes is not superficially obvious, and studies capable of detecting these impacts have not be done. Methods: To ascertain recent use of medical services and medicines and other information about the impact of ill-health, we in 2008–2009 conducted structured, personal interviews with 1,780 persons with diagnosed diabetes (DMs) and 1,770 matched comparison subjects (MCs) without diabetes in Cameroon, Mali, Tanzania and South Africa. We sampled DMs from diabetes registries and, in Cameroon and South Africa, from attendees at outpatient diabetes clinics. To recruit MCs, we asked subjects with diabetes to identify five persons living nearest to them who were of the same sex and approximate age. We estimated diabetes impact on medical services use by calculating ratios and differences between DMs and MCs, testing for statistical significance using two-stage multivariable hurdle models. Findings: DMs consumed 12.95 times more days of inpatient treatment, 7.54 times more outpatient visits, and 5.61 times more medications than MCs (all p<0.001). DMs used an estimated 3.44 inpatient days per person per year, made 10.72 outpatient visits per person per year (excluding traditional healers), and were taking an average of 2.49 prescribed medicines when interviewed. Conclusions: In Sub-Saharan Africa, the relative incremental use of medical care and medicines associated with diagnosed diabetes is much greater than in industrialized countries and in China. Published calculations of the health-system impact of diabetes in Africa are dramatic underestimates. Although non-communicable diseases like diabetes are commonly thought to be minor problems for health systems and patients in Africa, our data demonstrate the opposite. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]