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The study of faunal communities of the past, and how they have changed to become what they are now, is fundamental to the understanding of the changes in ecosystems that we are witnessing and that are coming in the future. In this paper, we present the small mammal assemblage from Grotta del Sambuco (Massa Marittima, Grosseto), belonging to two archaeologic stratigraphic Units, 5 and 6, both dated to Marine Isotope Stage 2. The assemblage from Unit 6 can be defined as "non-analogue", due to the occurrence of the Narrow-headed Vole Lasiopodomys anglicus and the Southern Birch Mouse Sicista subtilis. Non-analogue communities (i.e., with no equivalent in present time) are frequent during Late Pleistocene in the Italian Peninsula. Starting with Grotta del Sambuco, we describe some of the different factors leading to the origins and disappearance of past non-analogue small mammal assemblages in Italy. Climatic changes and the consequent shifts in geographic distributions of the species play a major role in shaping these communities, eventually leading to extirpation and extinction of cold- or continental-adapted species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We propose a new method to quantify Climate Change Effects at hydrological scales. • The method allows to assimilate climatic projections in CDFs at rain gauge scale. • The initial (i.e., before any change scenario begins) skewness plays a crucial role. • A strong increase of outliers frequency is expected for series EV1 alike skewed. Quantifying the potential effects of Climate Change (CC) on hydrological scales is a topic with a more and more increasing interest for the scientific community, given the CC impact on agriculture, industry, economy, human health, ecosystems, among the others. In this context, the paper focuses on the sub-daily Annual Maxima (AM) of rainfall height time series, and specifically on the crucial role played by initial skewness, i.e. the skewness of the observed rainfall series used to evaluate potential parametric trends. Here a quick and user-friendly methodology is proposed, that is aimed at quantifying plausible future changes in terms of probability distributions assumed at rain gauge scale, from projections of any climatic model. In detail, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and the Two-Component Extreme Value (TCEV) distributions are adopted as probability functions suitable for modelling observed rainfall AM series, which could increase their frequency and magnitude into future horizons under CC. EURO-CORDEX projections for Europe are considered, under the hypothesis that the values of the change factor, i.e. the ratio between the values of a specific quantile at two specific time horizons, are invariant when moving from an areally-averaged scale (typical for any climate model) to a point rain gauge scale, which induces that future changes are provided (in terms of frequency and magnitude of extreme events) without the need of any spatial downscaling from the assumed projections. The proposed methodology can contribute to hazard quantification associated to potential climate changes, and thus it can play a crucial role in the assessment of hydraulic structures resilience; the obtained results, specific for the study area of Italy, but easily extendable on a global scale, showed that larger increases in frequency of future heavy events are expected for time series with "EV1 alike" values of initial skewness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Circular actions cannot be considered sustainable if their financial benefits are not demonstrated. While the environmental benefits of the circular economy have been widely studied, sustainable development from a financial point of view has been much less studied. In this paper we assess the financial benefits of circular innovations applied in the fashion industry that have been previously assessed as sustainable using the Life Cycle Assessment. The focus is on two innovative processes such as salt recovery and tannin baths reuse that reuse water, chemicals and raw materials in an Italian small company operating in the tanning industry. A cost benefit analysis was carried to evaluate the net contribution of these actions to the operating margin. Then we model a forward-looking cash flow projection in order to determine the fundamental value of circular investments. Through these practices, the company achieved an increase in operating profitability above 30% and the 10-year value of the salt recovery is 159,061.40 euros, while the reused tanning water equals just over one million euros. The results show unexpected and strong financial benefits that can leverage similar initiatives that would advance resource equity and finally promote a real and convenient industrial dedication to environmental guardianship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate modelling and palaeotemperature reconstructions derived from several proxies (TEX 86 , δ18O) suggest that the Late Cretaceous was one of the warmest intervals in Earth history. The greenhouse climate reached its acme near the Cenomanian-Turonian boundary (CTB) interval with sea surface temperatures over 35 °C in low and mid- palaeolatitudes, coinciding with the highest sea level stands of the Phanerozoic. Following this warming phase, a general cooling trend punctuated by short-term hot snaps characterized the rest of the Cretaceous. Palaeotemperature and palaeoenvironmental changes are well documented in deep-water carbonate deposits based on variations in geochemical proxies and distribution patterns of macro- and microfauna. However, such climatic and environmental fluctuations severely impacted carbonate platforms, sedimentary environments that are particularly sensitive to external perturbations. Palaeontological data show major changes within the main carbonate platform producers (rudists and benthic foraminifera) during the early Late Cretaceous. Both groups experienced major taxonomic turnovers at the CTB, followed by a further re-radiation in the middle/late Turonian. The lack of detailed palaeoclimatic reconstructions in shallow water carbonate succession hampers the possibility to investigate a possible causal relationship between temperature changes and faunal evolution. In this paper, we report integrated geochemical, sedimentological, and palaeontological data from the Adriatic Carbonate Platform (Friuli, north-east Italy). Benthic foraminifera biostratigraphy and isotope stratigraphy (δ13C and 87Sr/86Sr) were used to precisely constrain the stratigraphy of the late Cenomanian-middle Turonian interval. δ18O analysis on both well-preserved rudist shells and bulk rock samples enabled the construction of high-resolution palaeotemperature curves. The resulting temperature trends are comparable with those from the deep-water record across the late Cenomanian-Turonian interval. The warmest phase was in the Early Turonian with sea surface palaeotemperatures as high as 41–45 °C recorded in rudist shells. Data show temperature fluctuation from the late Cenomanian to the Early Turonian with a magnitude >7 °C. Benthic foraminifera and rudist evolution responded to these palaeotemperature fluctuations, and their decline in the late Cenomanian and full recovery in the Turonian suggest a strong link with temperature changes. • Reconstructed temperatures from carbonate platforms during the Cenomanian -Turonian interval are missing • High resolution paleotemperatures reconstruction and biota evolution (rudists and benthic foraminifera) from Friuli Carbonate Platform is presented • Paleotemperatures estimated using δ18O analyses on bulk rock and well preserved bivalve samples (rudists and Chondrodonta) • δ18O analyses in bivalve shells suggest warmest Temperatures °>40°C in the Early Turonian • Rudists and benthic foraminifera distribution/abundance strongly modulated by temperature changes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the influence of temperature and of rainfall intensity and the effect of such variations on the treatment efficiencies and on the electrical consumptions in seven medium-large size Wastewater Treatment Plants (WWTPs) in Apulia in South Italy (Bari, Barletta, Brindisi, Lecce, Foggia, Andria and Taranto). It has been observed, in the considered WWTPs, a slight but clear increase of the incoming flow due to the increase in rainfall intensity, which results to an increase of the energy consumption per incoming volume. The impact of the climate change to the incoming flow, during the last five years (2016–2020), has been assessed indicating that an increase in rainfall intensity results to an increase of the WWTPs energy consumptions per wastewater treated volume. More specifically, for a specific WWTP (Lecce) it was found that the electrical consumption increases from 0.36 kw/m3 to 0.51 kw/m3 when the rainfall intensity was increased from 0.8 mm/min to 2.9 mm/min. Some adaption measures have been considered to upgrade the existing WWTP so to mitigate the energy increase and to limit the global effects of climate change. [Display omitted] • As Rain intensity rises, wastewater influx into WWTPs increases. • Rainfall intensity influences negatively electrical consumptions. • BOD removal is lower with increasing annual precipitations. • Temperature influences BOD, COD and SST removal efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Tap water use in urban agriculture albeit climate change/urban water risk scenarios. • No studies addressed impacts of urban agriculture on public water supply systems. • Research need on urban agriculture policies and practices towards water security. • Fruit trees and wild edible plants are water-saving options. Urban agriculture (UA) initiatives have been increasing in recent years as a nature-based solution for achieving many of the 2030 UN Sustainable Development Goals. However, climate change is expected to have effects on rainfall patterns, which are likely to impact urban food production. The main aim of this paper is to evaluate how issues related to water sources for UA have been addressed in the scientific literature from two different socioeconomic and environmental realities, Brazil and Italy. The method involved a systematic literature review, considering the PRISMA guidelines. The Web of Science database and papers' reference lists were used for retrieving original articles, published in 2000–2020 interval, indexed on scientific databases, and containing data on the typology and quality of water sources used in UA studies. After applying the eligibility criteria, 191 papers were selected – Brazil (108) and Italy (83). The last five years have seen an intensification of studies into issues involving water. Tap water has been identified as an important source of irrigation water for UA, if not the main one. No studies were found that addressed the impact of UA on public water supply systems. The findings point towards more sustainable practices involving the reuse of water and adaptive practices towards water security. We identified that innovative production systems like container farming, aquaponics and indoor agriculture, as well as cultivation of fruit trees, wild edible plants and varieties with low water requirements can represent water-saving options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Rapid geomorphological evolution occurred in the erodible lithology and semiarid climate of southern Italy. • A deposition phase during the Little Ice Age (LIA) was the last global cold climatic phase. • Badland incision occurred during Mediaeval Warm Period and continued in stably alternating phases until 1700 CE. • Valley aggradation ended early in 1850 as a phase of historic arroyo cutting began. • Geomorphological evolution around Basilicata during the LIA was very rapid and controlled by extreme surface process sensitivity to climate change. There is a general consensus that the increased frequency of extreme climatic events will quickly change the morphology of the landscapes in the Mediterranean area. Knowing and understanding the expected changes becomes crucial for defining future adaptive strategies. This paper deals with the very rapid geomorphological evolution in an emblematic Mediterranean area, the Basilicata region of southern Italy, during the last 300 years. The results show that the landscape evolution was mainly controlled by the extreme sensitivity of surface processes to climate change. Landslides, a new cycle of the formation of badland landforms such as calanchi and biancane, and an aggradation/incision phase in the main river valleys have completely reshaped the landscape of the Bradanic Trough, whereas fresh eroded material was moved to the coast. New data on valley-fill alluvium in the Basento River and one of its main left tributaries, the Vella stream, show ages ranging from 1700 to 1850. This deposition phase coincides with the Little Ice Age, an epoch of global climate variability. Previous literature showed that the alluvium of this age consists of a mappable stratigraphic unit outcropping in all the large alluvial valleys of the Basilicata and Mediterranean regions. Palaeoclimate and high-resolution palaeoflood data indicate that valley-fill alluviation occurred during a long humid period. Valley aggradation ended in approximately 1850 with the beginning of a new phase of historic arroyo cutting, mainly due to high magnitude-low frequency rainy events within prolonged drought periods. The stream incision drew the terminal dissection of the clayey slopes into biancana rounded morphologies. These data seem to be confirmed by the comparable heights of about 3 m, both of the biancane and of the fluvial terraces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Current AECSs fail to provide an effective level of environmental good in agriculture. • The post-2020 proposals for the CAP reinforce the role of research in delivering reliable ex-post analyses of AECSs to improve their effectiveness. • This paper estimates the effects of different AECS payment levels on indicators of environmental quality. • The results reveal the significant impact of agri-environmental schemes on management intensity, but show an uneven distribution among the various levels of payments. • This paper contributes to the ongoing debate regarding the post-2020 CAP by incorporating reflection and a proposal for measuring results-based payments. Promoting sustainable agricultural systems, maintaining biodiversity, and establishing measures to counteract climate change are the clear objectives of the future Common Agricultural Policy (CAP); however, there is still uncertainty regarding its implementation. At the level of the European Union, the justification for the CAP appears increasingly linked to the translation of policy objectives into results-based measures. Accordingly, in this paper, we estimate a composite indicator to track changes at the farm level and assess the impacts of agri-environment climate schemes (AECSs) on the change in management intensity. As AECS payments are tailored to compensate for the costs and income forgone due to participation in environmentally friendly measures, we assume that any environmental benefits increase with the amount of payment received. We estimate the effects of differential payments on management intensity by applying a generalised propensity score approach to a case study comprising all AECSs implemented in the Veneto region (North-eastern Italy). We find that AECSs have a significant effect on the composite indicator of extensification, but the provision of environmental good differs among the varying levels of payments. Our results contribute in-depth reflections and a proposal for measuring the cost-effectiveness of AECSs to the ongoing debate on the post-2020 CAP regarding AECSs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The resilience of a building designed to be nearly zero energy is evaluated in Mediterranean climate. • Weather file defined with monitored data are used for a short-term analysis. • Projections of climate changes are considered in the construction of weather files. • The net primary energy will decrease (–23%) and the in-situ renewable adoption will increase (85%). • Overheating will occur in the intermediate months with the need to turned on the cooling system. The paper is focused on the evaluation of how the climate changes can influence the performance of buildings designed to be nearly zero energy (nZEB) and on the evaluation of the resilience in term of energy balance. A real case study is used; it is named BNZEB, a single-storey dwelling built in Benevento (South Italy, Mediterranean climate). With five-years monitored meteorological data, both a short-term and medium-term analysis is developed; the first one consists in the evaluation of the energy behavior compared to the first operating year. Then, the energy performance is evaluated considering the medium-term climate projections generated using the CCWorldWeatherGen tool. This analysis, with reference to the case study, suggests to designers and researchers that, in a typical Mediterranean climate, the reduction of the heating demand could compensate the increment in the cooling request. In the worst climatic scenario, the net primary energy could change from 25.4 kWh/m2 year (first year of life, 2017) to 19.5 kWh/m2 year (projection to 2050) with a rate of self-consumption of 85% (80% for 2017). However, a critical point is the operating period of the cooling system. Indeed, an indoor overheating problem could occur during the spring with operative temperature higher than 30 °C; this indicates that in future, the occupants will require higher number of operating hours with most frequent switch off. This could change the results of the energy balance, reducing, for instance, the imbalance between production and consumption that currently occurs in the intermediate periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationships between pedogenetic processes and fluvial-coastal dynamics in the Po Plain have been reconstructed through sedimentological analysis and correlation of ca. 170 core data chronologically constrained by 376 radiocarbon dates. Vertically stacked, weakly developed paleosols within Upper Pleistocene and Holocene mud-prone strata testify to intermittent pedogenesis, periodically interrupted by overbank sedimentation. Individual paleosols are laterally traceable for tens of km and exhibit A-Bk-Bw, A-Bk or A-Bw profiles. Stratigraphically ordered 14C calibrated ages from A organo-mineral horizons testify to slow aggradation during 4–6 thousand years-long exposure periods. Burial ages, with an error of few centuries, are provided by plant debris at the top of A horizons. Millennial-scale climate oscillations and glacio-eustasy are the main drivers of the pedo-sedimentary evolution of the area during the last 50 kyr. Upper Pleistocene paleosols (P1-P3) developed in well-drained floodplain environments, during relatively warm periods. Paleosol burial occurred during colder phases. High-sediment-supply during the Last Glacial Maximum hindered pedogenesis and led to the accumulation of 3–10 m-thick overbank strata. Widespread soil development (paleosol PH) occurred at the end of Last Glacial Maximum, following the retreat of Alpine glaciers and the afforestation of Apennine drainage basins. At distal locations, paleosol PH was progressively buried under estuarine sediments during the Holocene phases of post-glacial sea-level rise. Beyond the area of marine influence, burial ages of paleosol PH change from a place to another without specific spatial trends and reflect upstream fluvial sedimentation dominated by avulsions and deposition of spatially restricted alluvial units. Holocene (H1−H2) paleosols show a poor correlation potential and laterally variable degree of maturity that reflect avulsive sedimentation patterns and crevassing. This paper provides insights on the timing and mechanisms of formation and burial of weakly-developed paleosols. The outcomes of this research are applicable to similar Quaternary alluvial systems, and may help interpreting ancient paleosol-bearing successions. • Po Plain pedostratigraphy reveals relations between pedogenetic and alluvial events. • Upper Pleistocene-Holocene stacked paleosols testify to intermittent pedogenesis. • Radiocarbon dates permitted to estimate the duration of the main pedogenetic phases. • Climate change and eustasy controlled Late Pleistocene pedo-sedimentary evolution. • Discontinuous Holocene paleosols reflect avulsive sedimentation and crevassing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently, agriculture uses about 70–80% of global water resources and, in the Mediterranean area, it accounts for the high pressure of freshwater demand. This study provides a useful framework for the meso-level assessment of the Water Footprint (WF) in agriculture. Particularly, the WF methodology is used to quantify the water consumption and pollution of olives, grapes and tomatoes, traditional crops widespread both in the Apulia region, in Southern Italy, and in the Mediterranean area. Hence, from a meso-level assessment of the Water Footprint of Apulian agriculture, a general level of evaluation of the use of Mediterranean water resources was provided, estimating the Virtual Water (VW) too. Furthermore the climate change effects on the Water Footprint of the traditional crops identified were predicted, proposing some scenarios useful to reduce the grey component, which values for olives were evaluated by a sensitivity analysis. The results highlight that olives present the highest value of the WF and that grapes are the most affected by the variations according to the climate change scenarios, increasing over 200% of the green component and 77% of the blue one. Finally, a Circular Economy proposal, based on the reuse of the wastewater from a meso-scale perspective, highlights saving up to 70% of the water resource. The research questions proposed displayed the novelty of this paper, particularly as concerns the use of the Water Footprint analysis on a meso-level evaluation. Particularly, the new insights of this research addressed the needs of stakeholders in areas suffering from drought, such as the Mediterranean, to integrate and systematize a data-set of indicators to rationalize and plan water resource usage and safety in agriculture. [Display omitted] • Water stress spurs Water Footprint assessment in the Mediterranean area. • Multi-level approach of water quantifying for olive, grape and tomato is applied. • Italian grapes have the highest Virtual Water, compared to Spanish and Greek ones. • Effects of climate change on Water Footprint of traditional crops are estimated. • Grey Water Footprint of the olives is evaluated by a sensitivity analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Weather files defined with different methodology and dataset are compared. • Projections of climate changes are considered in the construction of weather files. • The case study is a residential building in a cooling dominated climate. • The composition of weather files greatly influences the energy performance prevision. • Traditional efficiency measures are not resilient for the expected climate changes. The methodology, the site and the dataset as well as the emissions scenario considered in the weather file definition influence the numerical evaluation of efficiency measures resilience. With a complete statistical and critical approach, the paper analyzes the importance of these aspects by means of a residential case study simulated in Benevento, a city of south Italy. Using data monitored from 2015 to 2020, a current weather file is built with different methodologies. The comparison indicates that there is not repeatability of the year chosen as a reference for the various months and thus the resolution of the building energy balance could bring different results. Some future climate projections are also generated on medium (2050 s) and long (2080 s) term considering different emission scenarios. With long term projection, the heating degree days are reduced also of − 21% meanwhile the cooling degree days are more than double compared with the current condition. This suggests a remarked transition towards a dominant cooling climate for Benevento. Moreover, when the climate change is considered, the insulation intervention and the installation of double glazed low emissive window is not resilient because the heating energy need decreases also of −56%, but the cooling energy need increases of + 62% (2080 s). If the efficiency measures include also the cool roof and the external shadings, the cooling demand could be reduced until –33% in some scenarios (e.g. RCP 4.5-50th percentile) and increased (+31%) in some others (e.g. 2080 s). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic analysis of climate change requires estimates at both aggregate and local level. Although there are numerous studies that estimate the global impact of climate change, country-level studies are still rare, particularly as far as Italy is concerned. By exploiting a panel of 110 provinces observed between 1980 and 2014, this paper investigates the impact of variation of weather variables on GDP per capita and agricultural productivity in Italy. To address issues of model uncertainty, the analysis explores to what extent these economic outcomes are affected by weather variables, linearly or non-linearly, as well as how their growth rate and levels are affected as a result. Main findings show that there is considerable model uncertainty. The most robust econometric results showing statistically significant effects of temperature for both the GDP and agricultural reaction function are from a levels specification, where temperature is included in a non-linear form while weather variables and economic outcomes enter in first differences. Projections of the impact of climate change by the end of the century show slight average effects for GDP per-capita, but important losses in agriculture, due to a persistent increase in average temperatures under both the RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. • We study the economic impact of weather variation on GDP and agriculture in Italy • We exploit a rich panel dataset across 110 territorial units over 1980–2014 period • To address problems of model uncertainty, we compare several different specifications • The "best" performing model is a non-linear specification estimated in first differences • End of the century predictions, suggest nil effects on GDP, but important loss in agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of climate change on the built environment represents an important research challenge. Today, green roofs (GRs) represent a viable solution for enhancing energy and urban resilience in the face of climate change, as they can have a positive impact on the building's indoor thermal comfort and energy demand, as well as inducing various environmental benefits (easing urban heat island effects, improving the management of runoff water, reducing air pollution, etc.). Thus, it is important to be able to assess their effectiveness, both today and under future climate conditions, in order to evaluate whether they can also provide a valid long-term solution. In this paper, a simulation approach is proposed to evaluate the energy and indoor-comfort efficacy of GRs installed on a cluster of buildings with respect to climate change and demographic growth. To illustrate the proposed methodology, it has been applied to two European urban environments characterized by very different climatic conditions (Esch-sur-Alzette in Luxembourg and Palermo in Italy) considering their behaviour over a period of 60 years (2020, 2050, 2080). Results showed that, with respect to standard existing roofs (i.e., without the presence of green coverage), and considering the rising temperatures due to climate change, during cooling seasons GRs enabled significant energy savings (ranging from 20% to 50% for Esch-sur-Alzette and from 3% to 15% for Palermo), improvement of the indoor comfort (reduction of the average predicted mean votes − PMVs) and attenuation of the ceiling temperatures (2–5 °C for both contexts) of the buildings' top floors. • Effectiveness of green roofs (GRs) in enhancing climate change urban adaptation. • Simulation-based methodology to evaluate GRs efficacy applied on buildings cluster. • Methodology application feasibility on two very different climatic conditions. • Energy savings and indoor comfort evaluation under future climate-change scenarios. • Reduction of heating and cooling loads and improvement of indoor thermal comfort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• NaTech accidental events. • Territorial planning in the incidence of Climate change. • Awareness and Preparedness of urban and local planners. • Decision support system for the benefit of local authorities. The present paper aims at verifying the awareness and preparedness of urban and local planners to cope with NaTech risk, together with the availability of dedicated tools. Since most of the natural events that can trigger technological hazards are influenced by climate change (i.e. flood, heavy rains, storms, etc.), NaTech risk is expected to be strongly increasing in the next years. However, dedicated NaTech planning actions and methods or tools to support them are still rarely available. The requirements of European Adaptation Strategy for Climate were examined considering the issues posed by the Seveso III Directive in terms of NaTech, focusing on the strategies adopted in the European countries, and in particular in Italy. Based on such analysis, a 'NaTech tool' dedicated to local planners was developed. Practical and easy to use methods and procedures were proposed in order to allow the use of the method by the local authorities, in the absence of sectorial experts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the Messinian, the sensitivity of the Mediterranean Basin to ecosystem perturbation was enhanced in response to the progressive restriction of water exchange with the Atlantic Ocean. The widespread deposition of organic-rich layers (i.e. sapropel) during the Messinian testifies the perturbation of the carbon and oxygen cycles; indeed, these sediments were deposited under conditions of oxygen starvation, presumably in response to a periodic deterioration of the thermohaline circulation strength. Disentangling the causes, the effect and magnitude of the thermohaline circulation weakening during the geological past is crucial for better constraining present and near-future deoxygenation dynamics in the Mediterranean region under the current climate warming. For this purpose, we investigate a Messinian sapropel-bearing succession cropping out at Monte dei Corvi (Ancona, central Italy) with mineralogical, petrographic, micropaleontological and stable Carbon and Oxygen isotopic analyses. We show that sapropel layers were deposited in response to an increase of the sea surface buoyancy, which hampered the thermohaline circulation and thus the oxygenation of bottom water, in turn affecting the bioturbating organisms. Within the lithological cycle, the recovery of an efficient thermohaline circulation is recorded by thin packstone layers underlying the marly limestone/marlstone, which record intense bottom currents. The marly limestone/marlstone accumulated during periods of intense primary productivity and organic carbon export to the sea bottom, which promoted bottom hypoxia but not organic matter preservation. We infer that these lithological changes resulted from variations in the Adriatic Deep Water formation system, controlled by precession-driven climatic and oceanographic changes. By integrating previously published Sea Surface Temperature (SST) with new isotopic and mineralogical data, we show that variations in Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) were the leading factor controlling sapropel deposition, minimizing the role of primary productivity. The SSTs characterizing the sapropel deposits are close to the range of those projected in the Eastern Mediterranean at the end of this century under climate warming. In this scenario, future warming will be coupled with SSS increase, which will counteract the density loss provided by temperature, making the bottom deoxygenation in the Eastern Mediterranean abysses unlikely. However, additional forcing, such as winter heat waves and eutrophication, could contribute to negatively affecting the Mediterranean oxygen balance and should be considered in model-based projections. • The Monte dei Corvi recorded the changes in the ADW formation during the Messinian. • The bottom deoxygenation resulted from variations in the freshwater input. • Future deoxygenation in Mediterranean can be provided by productivity or heatwaves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]