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An accurate grasp of the influence of precipitation and temperature changes on the variation in both the magnitude and temporal patterns of runoff is crucial to the prevention of floods and droughts. However, there is a general lack of understanding of the ways in which runoff sensitivities to precipitation and temperature changes are associated with the CMIP5 scenarios. This paper investigates the hydrological response to future climate change under CMIP5 RCP scenarios by using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and then quantitatively assesses runoff sensitivities to precipitation and temperature changes under different scenarios by using a set of simulations with the control variable method. The source region of the Yellow River (SRYR) is an ideal area to study this problem. The results demonstrated that the precipitation effect was the dominant element influencing runoff change (the degree of influence approaching 23%), followed by maximum temperature (approaching 12%). The weakest element was minimum temperature (approaching 3%), despite the fact that the increases in minimum temperature were higher than the increases in maximum temperature. The results also indicated that the degree of runoff sensitivity to precipitation and temperature changes was subject to changing external climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the hydrological response of glacierized headwater catchments to future climate change in the Ötztal Alps, Austria. To this end, two conceptual hydrological models, HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) and HQsim, are applied for the simulation of future daily discharge in three (nested) catchments with varying degrees of glaciation. The models are forced with downscaled climate change projections, and outputs from an empirical glacier model, which is able to simulate future glacial evolution. Under the future conditions, the outcomes show initially that runoff increases for all catchments without changes in the runoff regimes. In the long term, summer runoff is expected to decrease and winter/spring runoff is expected to increase in all catchments. These runoff changes are accompanied with regime shifts from glacial/glacio-nival runoff regimes to runoff regimes with a higher nival component. Changing runoff conditions might also lead to changes in the seasonality of annual flood peaks with an earlier appearance of flood peaks, and an increasing appearance of low flow conditions during summer months. The outcomes of the two hydrological models show minor differences. The results of this study provide improved understanding of the future impact of climate change on the water cycle of glacierized Alpine catchments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the operation of six cascade reservoirs, the flow regime and sediment discharge of the Lancang River have changed greatly. The changes of runoff and suspended load have attracted extensive attention. The hydrological data of Gajiu and Yunjinghong stations in Lancang River from 1964 to 2019 were analyzed by using wavelet analysis, double mass curve and abrupt change analysis. The temporal trends in runoff and suspended load were evaluated. Results revealed that the reduction of suspended load was much more profound than the change of runoff. There was a slight downward trend in annual runoff due to climate change. After the completion of Xiaowan and Nuozhadu reservoirs, the proportion of runoff in flood season decreased by 22.64 and 30.75%, respectively. Wavelet analysis was used to reveal the characteristics of runoff evolution. With the operation of reservoirs, suspended load showed abrupt changes in 1993 and 2008. The amount of suspended load during 2009–2019 decreased by 95.47–98.78% compared with that before the reservoir construction. This paper presents the latest quantitative study on the temporal variation of runoff and suspended load since the completion of Xiaowan and Nuozhadu reservoirs, which is of great importance for guiding the operation of reservoirs and maximizing the value of the whole Lancang-Mekong River basin. HIGHLIGHTS Variations of runoff and suspended load during 1964–2019 in Lancang River were first quantified in detail after Xiaowan and Nuozhadu reservoirs were completed.; The total amount of runoff was dominated by climate change, while reservoir construction mainly influenced the annual process of runoff.; Suspended load exhibited abrupt changes in 1993 and 2008 and the reduction reached 95–99% after the reservoir construction.;

Urbanization and climate change trends put strong pressures on urban water systems. Temporal variations in rainfall, runoff and water availability increase, and need to be compensated for by innovative adaptation strategies. One of these is stormwater retention and infiltration in open and/or green spaces in the city (blue-green water integration). This study evaluated the efficiency of three adaptation strategies for the city of Turnhout in Belgium, namely source control as a result of blue-green water integration, retention basins located downstream of the stormwater sewers, and end-of-pipe solutions based on river flood control reservoirs. The efficiency of these options is quantified by the reduction in sewer and river flood frequencies and volumes, and sewer overflow volumes. This is done by means of long-term simulations (100-year rainfall simulations) using an integrated conceptual sewer-river model calibrated to full hydrodynamic sewer and river models. Results show that combining open, green zones in the city with stormwater retention and infiltration for only 1% of the total city runoff area would lead to a 30 to 50% reduction in sewer flood volumes for return periods in the range 10-100 years. This is due to the additional surface storage and infiltration and consequent reduction in urban runoff. However, the impact of this source control option on downstream river floods is limited. Stormwater retention downstream of the sewer system gives a strong reduction in peak discharges to the receiving river. However due to the difference in response time between the sewer and river systems, this does not lead to a strong reduction in river flood frequency. The paper shows the importance of improving the interface between urban design and water management, and between sewer and river flood management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The runoff coefficient φ is a crucial parameter for the estimation of the mean value of annual maximum flood peak discharges in ungauged watersheds, where no direct measures are available. If the rational method is applied as a rainfall--runoff transformation model, the runoff coefficient accounts for all the hydrological losses, and it can be conceptually defined as the fraction of the total rainfall contributing to the flood peak response. In the present paper, focusing on Southern Peninsular Italy, a regression model is proposed to improve the prediction of the above defined runoff coefficient as a function of several parameters describing both morphological and mean annual climatic watershed characteristics. Morphological features are described by using the Soil Conservation Service permeability classification and the related variable S, referred to an average antecedent moisture condition. Different climatic indices enable a subsequent enhancement of S in order to account for the specific mean annual moisture condition of each watershed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyse the change trends of the annual and seasonal runoff series of the hydrological station Batang on the headstream of the Yangtze River over the period 1960-2007. The relations between runoff series and precipitation and temperature conditions are investigated, and the influence of the refreezing process of meltwater of the glaciers on the Yangtze River flow is examined with the proposed accumulated temperature deficit (ATD) index. It is found that annual runoff at the Batang station is not stable during the period 1960-2007. From 1960 to 1980, there was a rather strong decrease of 14.4 m³ s-1 year-1 on average in spite of the statistically significant increase in air temperature and rather stable precipitation. It is argued that the annual rate of glacier runoff generation is possibly controlled by the ATD rather than by the direct air temperature. Seasonal analysis indicates that ATD might be of greater influence in autumn and winter in affecting runoff than in spring and summer. The research in this paper may be helpful in understanding how the hydro-climatic conditions affect runoff generation in the cold regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation and land-surface hydrology are intrinsically linked under long-term climate change. This paper aims to evaluate the dynamics of potential natural vegetation arising from 21st century climate change and its possible impact on the water budget of the Hanjiang River basin in China. Based on predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC-SRES) A1 scenario from the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) regional climate model, changes in plant functional types (PFTs) and leaf area index (LAI) were simulated via the Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model. Subsequently, predicted PFTs and LAIs were employed in the Xinanjiang vegetation-hydrology model for rainfall-runoff simulations. Results reveal that future long-term changes in precipitation, air temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration would remarkably affect the spatiotemporal distribution of PFTS and LAIS. These climate-driven vegetation changes would further influence regional water balance. With the decrease in forest cover in the 21st century, plant transpiration and evaporative loss of intercepted canopy water will tend to fall while soil evaporation may rise considerably. As a result, total evapotranspiration may increase moderately with a slight increase in annual runoff depth. This indicates that, for long-term hydrological prediction, climate-induced changes in terrestrial vegetation cannot be neglected as the terrestrial biosphere plays an important role in land-surface hydrological responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the UK, the Highways Agency is responsible for operating, maintaining and improving the strategic road network in England. One focus of the Highways Agency's ongoing research into the nature and impact of highway runoff is aimed at ensuring that the Highways Agency will meet the requirements of the EU Water Framework Directive. A research programme, undertaken in partnership with the Environment Agency, is in progress to develop a better understanding of pollutants in highway runoff and their ecological impact. The paper presents the outcome of a study to: (1) monitor pollutants in highway runoff under different climate and traffic conditions; (2) develop standards to assess potential ecological risks from soluble pollutants in highway runoff; and (3) develop a model to predict pollutant concentrations in highway runoff. The model has been embedded in a design tool incorporating risk assessment procedures and receiving water standards for soluble and insoluble pollutants—the latter has been developed elsewhere in another project within the research programme. The design tool will be used to support improved guidance on where, and to what level, treatment of runoff is required for highway designers to manage the risk of ecological impact from highway runoff. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]